Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

• KC -9, O/U 43
• Chiefs vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This contest will be a play-volume buffet. Over their last five games, the Broncos are third in neutral pace, followed by the Chiefs, ranked fifth. Patrick Mahomes continues to throw the ball at the second-highest rate in the NFL in close games (since Week 8). The Broncos have dropped to 15th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes remains Superman. He’s fifth in fantasy points per dropback, third in yards per attempt, and first in passing touchdowns as the QB1 in fantasy. Denver remains a tough test for quarterbacks. Since Week 10, they are seventh in success rate per dropback, 18th in passing yards per game, and 13th in explosive pass rate allowed. Mahomes is a must-start weekly. It doesn’t matter what defense he is playing. He’s shown the ability to shred any team in any week.

Russell Wilson: The sultan of Subway is unstartable in 1QB formats. The last time he finished higher than QB20 was Week 6. The cliff came early for Wilson. He’s been dreadful, ranking 27th in fantasy points per dropback and outside the top 20 quarterbacks in nearly every completion metric. Wilson isn’t even worthy of a start in Superflex formats at this point. He has failed to surpass 11 fantasy points in each of his last three games. It’s a tough scene.

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco: Since Week 10, Pacheco has been averaging 17.6 touches and 89.3 total yards. Over that four-game period, he has finished as the RB36, RB23, RB16, and RB15 in weekly fantasy scoring. In the same stretch, he’s 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, 28th in breakaway rate, and 27th in PFF’s elusive rating. In this small snippet of games, he’s averaging 4.2 red zone carries per game. Pacheco has not seen more than two targets in any game this season, so he better make his rushing attempts count. Since Week 10, Denver is tenth in rushing success rate, 15th in rushing yards per game, and 15th in explosive run rate allowed. Pacheco is an RB2.

Jerick McKinnon: Since Week 10, McKinnon has been averaging 6.8 touches and 42.1 total yards with a 13.6% target share (40.3% route run rate). In that timeframe, he’s been a top-24 running back twice (RB20, RB17). McKinnon has been efficient with his touches all year, ranking first in yards created per touch, eighth in yards per touch, and 23rd in yards per route run. Denver is second in DVOA against receiving backs, limiting them to 15th in receiving yards per game and the fourth-lowest yards per reception. McKinnon is an RB3/4.

Week 13

Latavius Murray: Murray retained his lead role even with Mike Boone returning to the fold. Murray played 68% of the snaps with 21 touches and 61 total yards. Since Week 12, Murray has averaged 17.5 touches and 79.5 total yards. Murray is operating below replacement level from an efficiency standpoint. Among 53 running backs with at least 50 rushing attempts, he’s 53rd in yards after contact per attempt, 45th in breakaway rate, and 49th in PFF’s elusive rating. Since Week 10, Kansas City has been 15th in rushing yards per game, 15th in EPA per rush, and 14th in rushing success rate. Murray receives an RB1 level workload weekly, but with his 32-year-old slow-motion movements, he levels out as a weekly RB3.

Mike Boone: Boone is a stash only. He only played 23% of the snaps with seven touches and 19 total yards last week. Boone has flashed talent when healthy this season. The fact that Murray is working ahead of him is laughable.

Wide Receivers

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster was thrown back into a full-time role last week with a 17.4% target share and 80.6% route run rate. Smith-Schuster is the WR33 in fantasy with a 17.5% target share and 18.2% air yard share. He’s 16th in red zone targets and 28th in yards per route run. Since Week 12, Smith-Schuster has run from the slot on 52.1% of his routes. Smith-Schuster is a WR2 that will match up with Essang Bassey (57.1% catch rate, 74.4 passer rating). Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling is a dart throw WR5/6. He has a 13.3% target share and 24.2% air yard share while ranking 22nd in deep targets. This is a bad matchup for a field stretcher like Valdes-Scantling. Denver has held the opposition to the 13th-lowest deep ball completion rate and eight-lowest deep passing yards.

Skyy Moore: In Weeks 11-12, Moore averaged six targets, five receptions, and 49.5 receiving yards (43% of snaps). While those numbers suggest he’s a decent low-end flex, Week 13 illustrated the volatility of Moore, where his snap count remained at 42%, but he failed to draw a target. Even with Toney out this late in the season, his floor is frightening, and his ceiling isn’t high enough to justify the risk of playing him.

Kadarius Toney: Toney has been ruled out (hamstring).

Courtland Sutton: Sutton has been ruled out (hamstring).

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy is the WR42 in fantasy with an 18.4% target share and 22.4% air yard share. He’s 19th in deep targets, but that is watered down by his 74.6% catchable target rate (62nd). Jeudy is 41st in PFF receiving grade and 25th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Jeudy will run about 69% of his routes against L’Jarius Snead (72% catch rate, 102.3 passer rating) as a WR3/4.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Death. Taxes. Travis Kelce. Some things are as dependable as the rising sun. Kelce is the TE1 with a 24.8% target share (third-best), 27.2% target per route run rate (third-best), and 20.6% air yard share (fifth). He is sixth in deep targets and first in red zone targets. Kelce has finished lower than TE4 in weekly scoring only twice this season. Matchups don’t matter for Kelce.

Greg Dulcich: Dulcich made a loud statement in Week 13. He commanded a 38.1% target share and 42.1% air yard share while posting 4.05 yards per route run. No. Those numbers aren’t typos. After that performance, Dulcich is 13th in PFF receiving grade and 14th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). Dulcich is a TE1 facing a defense that’s 20th in DVOA, allowing the tenth-highest yards per reception and ninth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to tight ends.

LV vs. LAR | NYJ vs. BUF | CLE vs. CIN | HOU vs. DAL | MIN vs. DET | JAC vs. TEN | PHI vs. NYG | BAL vs. PIT | KC vs. DEN | TB vs. SF | CAR vs. SEA | MIA vs. LAC | NE vs. ARI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -3, O/U 37.5
• Buccaneers vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Buccaneers are second in neutral pace and third in neutral passing rate.
• Last week with Brock Purdy under center, the 49ers were 25th in neutral pace while ranking 11th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady: Against the Saints, Brady logged his first QB1 outing since Week 5 (QB8). It wasn’t pretty as it was more of the same from this Bucs offense. Yards left on the field. Overthrows. Brady and Evans being on different pages. Brady finished with 5.2 yards per attempt and a last second passing touchdown that saved his fantasy day. Brady is 32nd in fantasy points per dropback, 20th in accuracy rating, and 32nd in yards per attempt as the QB18 in fantasy. Brady is a QB2 staring down a defense that’s fifth in fantasy points per game, 12th in passing yards per game, and fifth in EPA per dropback.

Brock Purdy: Purdy finished his first NFL action 21st in PFF passing grade, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 14th in adjusted completion rate as the QB18. Purdy is a QB2 that’s not worth worrying about outside Superflex formats. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has been 22nd in success rate per dropback, 18th in yards per attempt, and 14th in passing yards per game. Purdy can post another serviceable stat line in Week 14 to help out fantasy managers with the need to start two quarterbacks.

Running Backs

Week 13

Leonard Fournette: Fournette returned to the lineup and rolled right back into his lead role. He played 60% of the snaps with 16 touches and 81 total yards. Fournette ran more routes than White and handled the bulk of the work inside the 20-yard line. Fournette has been tragically incapable of breaking tackles this season. Among 53 running backs with at least 50 rushing attempts, he is 52nd in yards after contact per attempt, 43rd in missed tackles forced, and 49th in breakaway rate. He is the RB12 in fantasy thanks to his six touchdowns (14th), 12.2% target share (12th), 347 receiving yards (fifth-most), and 49 receptions (fifth-most). The 49ers have been a coffin nail for running backs. Since Week 10, they are third in rushing success rate, first in rushing yards per game, and second in explosive run rate allowed. Fournette is a low-end RB2. Fournette practiced on Thursday (foot) on a limited basis before missing Friday’s practice. He has been listed as questionable. If he misses this game, White bumps up to RB2 territory.

Rachaad White: White played 41% of the snaps last week with 15 touches and 69 total yards. He handled the 1B role alongside Fournette. Fournette still held the upper hand in high-value areas. White is 51st in yards after contact per attempt, 26th in breakaway rate, and 50th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). In a tougher matchup and with Fournette active, it’s difficult to project much upside for White this week. White is an RB3. If Fournette misses this game, White is an RB2.

Christian McCaffrey: With Elijah Mitchell out, McCaffrey returned to his bell-cow role. He played 82% of the snaps last week with 25 touches and 146 total yards as the RB1 for the week. McCaffrey is 27th in yards after contact per attempt, 20th in breakaway rate, and 30th in PFF’s elusive rating. With issues under center and Mitchell out, McCaffrey will continue as the bellcow for as long as his body can hold up to the workload. Whatever shortcomings McCaffrey has in the rushing department, he can more than makeup for it in the passing game if Purdy will feed him a 25% target share as he did in Week 13. The Buccaneers’ run defense has returned to its former glory since Week 10. They are fourth in rushing success rate, 11th in EPA per rush, and 12th in explosive run rate allowed. McCaffrey is a high-end, matchup-proof RB1.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Evans has dipped to the WR21 in fantasy as he hasn’t finished higher than WR33 since Week 8. Since Week 9, the passing attack has shifted to Godwin. Across those four games, Evans has a 16.8% target share, 30.5% air yard share, 11.9 aDOT, and 1.16 yards per route run. Evans is fifth in deep targets and 16th in red zone targets among wideouts. Evans is a low-end WR2 that will run about 72% of his routes against Deommodore Lenoir (71.7% catch rate, 89.3 passer rating) and Charvarius Ward (56.4% catch rate, 85.5 passer rating).

Chris Godwin: Since Week 9, Godwin has a 24.6% target share (11 targets per game), 20.9% air yard share, and 1.7 yards per route run. With his 5.6 aDOT, Godwin is asked to create on his own after the catch. Godwin has five red zone targets over his last three games. Godwin will run about 72% of his routes against Jimmie Ward (96.5% catch rate, 112.9 passer rating). Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Godwin is a volume-based low-end WR1/high-end WR2.

Julio Jones: Jones’ routes and snaps are trending up, but he’s a stash only at this juncture. Brady is struggling to support Godwin and Evans, much less tertiary weapons like Jones. Jones has one game this season where he’s finished higher than a WR4.

Deebo Samuel: Last week with Purdy, Samuel saw a 25% target share, 5.9 aDOT, and a 24.2% air yard share with 1.49 yards per route run. Samuel has a 26% target share (17th) this season, ten red zone targets (24th), and a pitiful 4.5 aDOT. His YAC-dependent role is not what you want against Tampa Bay. They have allowed the eight-fewest YAC while ranking 15th in missed tackles. Samuel has only one game above WR30 since Week 7 in weekly fantasy scoring. Samuel is a WR3.

Brandon Aiyuk: In Week 13, Aiyuk garnered a 22.5% target share, 30.3% air yard share, and an 8.2 aDOT with 1.02 yards per route run. Aiyuk is the WR24 in fantasy with a 22.7% target share and 30.0% air yard share. Before Week 13, Aiyuk had finished as a WR2 or higher in four of his last six games. Aiyuk is 20th in PFF receiving grade and 32nd in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Aiyuk is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: Cameron Brate will be back this week, crushing the fantasy value for himself and Otton. The last time these two were both active, Otton played 52% of the snaps while failing to draw a target. Brate saw a 51% snap share with five targets that he predictably turned into only 15 receiving yards. Each player is a TE2 to avoid this week.

George Kittle: Purdy forgot Kittle existed last week. Kittle only saw a 7.5% target share (three targets), as he was targeted on only 7% of his routes. Kittle could take the biggest hit with Purdy under center, where the run game and pass protection could be emphasized. Not to mention that everyone’s floors and ceilings are knocked down a peg with the downgraded quarterback play. Kittle’s best asset in recent seasons is that he has had the ceiling to win you a week when the stars align and the 49ers decide to feature him. Kittle is the TE7 in fantasy with a 17.2% target share and seven red zone targets (15th). He ranks 13th in yards per route run. The Buccaneers are 21st in DVOA, allowing the fifth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) and eighth-highest catch rate to tight ends. Kittle remains a TE1.

LV vs. LAR | NYJ vs. BUF | CLE vs. CIN | HOU vs. DAL | MIN vs. DET | JAC vs. TEN | PHI vs. NYG | BAL vs. PIT | KC vs. DEN | TB vs. SF | CAR vs. SEA | MIA vs. LAC | NE vs. ARI

Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks

• SEA -3.5, O/U 43.5
• Panthers vs. Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, Carolina is 21st in neutral pace with the second-highest neutral script rushing rate.
• Over their last five games, Seattle is tenth in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold: In his first start of the season, Darnold was the QB16 in fantasy. Darnold was decent, ranking second in PFF passing grade, seventh in yards per attempt, and 26th in adjusted completion rate. Darnold could post solid QB2 numbers again this week. Seattle isn’t an imposing pass defense. Since Week 10, they are 30th in success rate per dropback, 27th in EPA per drop back, and 18th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Geno Smith: Chef Geno keeps doing his thing week after week. His play this year has been one of the season’s best “feel-good” stories. Smith is seventh in PFF passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and fourth in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks) as the QB9 in fantasy. Smith has finished no lower than QB11 over his last four games. Carolina will test him this week. Since Week 10, they are second in success rate per dropback, second in passing yards per game, and ninth in explosive pass rate allowed. Smith remains a QB1.

Running Backs

D’Onta Foreman: Foreman began the week with a DNP (foot) before upgrading to a limited session on Thursday and closing the week with a full day on Friday. He does not carry an injury designation into this game. Over the last six weeks, if the Panthers can keep the game close, Foreman can smash. He has four 100-yard rushing days in that span averaging 24 carries and 119 rushing yards in those games. Foreman is 21st in yards after contact per attempt, 22nd in breakaway rate, and 28th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). Since Week 10, Seattle has been 32nd in rushing yards per game, 32nd in explosive run rate, and 31st in EPA per rush allowed. Foreman is a volatile but high-upside RB2.

Chuba Hubbard: In three of his last four games played, Hubbard has played at least 40% of the snaps (40-46%), averaging 11.3 touches and 54.7 total yards. The issue for Hubbard is that Foreman has outpaced him with six red zone opportunities to his four over that period. Hubbard also doesn’t hold a candle to Foreman’s efficiency as a rusher. He is 55th in yards after contact per attempt and 40th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 40 carries). Hubbard is a deep league flex only.

Kenneth Walker: Walker hasn’t practiced all week. He’s been labeled as a game-time decision. The same can be said for Dee Jay Dallas. I consider both players doubtful. I will be shocked if either plays this week. In Weeks 6-12, Walker averaged 20.9 touches and 94.8 total yards with five weeks as a top 20 fantasy running back. Since Week 10, the Panthers are 24th in rushing success rate, 20th in rushing yards per game, and 25th in explosive run rate allowed. Carolina has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. If Walker somehow plays, he’s a volatile RB2 in a great matchup.

Travis Homer: Homer practiced in full on Thursday and Friday and doesn’t carry an injury tag into this game. Homer has been extremely efficient this season with his limited work (nine rushing attempts and ten receptions). He has 3.33 yards after contact per attempt and 2.10 yards per route run. Yes, these are incredibly small samples, but it’s still notable. Homer has at least 2.86 yards after contact per attempt on the ground over the last two seasons and hasn’t finished below 1.3 yards per route run over the last three years. Homer could easily be the workhorse in this offense this week if Walker and Dallas are out, which is what I’m projecting. With 17-20 touch upside in a beautiful matchup, if he gets the start, Homer is a plug-and-play RB2.

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore: Last week, Moore saw a 31.5% target share which he turned into 103 receiving yards and a WR11 finish. Moore is 13th in target share (27.2%), 20th in target per route run rate (26.7%), and first in air yard share (44.6%). Moore’s season has been tanked by bad quarterback play at every turn. His target quality rating is 86th, and his catchable target rate is 90th among wide receivers. Moore is a risky WR3 that will run about 71% of his routes against Tariq Woolen (54.9% catch rate, 65.6 passer rating) and Michael Jackson (63.5% catch rate, 93.7 passer rating).

Terrace Marshall: Marshall is waiver-wire material as long as the Panthers whittle down the passing volume this much. Marshall only saw three targets last week, with Darnold throwing the ball 19 times. Darnold has eyes for Moore, so he’ll get his targets weekly, but other options in the passing game are dust.

Tyler Lockett: Last week wasn’t only Lockett week, as Metcalf walked away with a good game as well, but Lockett led the way with a 32.4% target share. We’re running it back in Week 14. Since Week 10, the Panthers have deployed their outside corners in zone coverage on 73-76% of their coverage snaps. Lockett is eighth in PFF receiving grade and 13th in yards per route run against zone coverage (minimum 10 zone targets). Lockett has seen 64% of his target volume against zone this season. He’s the WR13 in fantasy, ranking 19th in PFF receiving grade and 17th in yards per route run. Lockett is a WR1. Lockette will run about 56% of his routes against Jaycee Horn (53.1% catch rate, 38.3 passer rating) and C.J. Henderson (73.5% catch rate, 110.8 passer rating).

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf has climbed all the way to 22nd in PFF receiving grade and 30th in yards per route run against zone coverage. Metcalf has seen 51.5% of his target volume against zone. He’s the WR18 in fantasy with a 26.2% target share (15th) and 36.7% air yard share (12th). Metcalf is also 17th in deep targets and third among wide receivers in red zone targets. Metcalf will run about 82% of his routes against Horn and Henderson as a WR2.

Tight Ends

SEA TEs: Last week Seattle split the playing time between Noah Fant, Will Dissly, and Colby Parkinson. This situation was frustrating enough with two players competing for playing time, but now with three, it’s not worth worrying about.

LV vs. LAR | NYJ vs. BUF | CLE vs. CIN | HOU vs. DAL | MIN vs. DET | JAC vs. TEN | PHI vs. NYG | BAL vs. PIT | KC vs. DEN | TB vs. SF | CAR vs. SEA | MIA vs. LAC | NE vs. ARI

Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• MIA -3, O/U 52.5
• Dolphins vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, Miami has remained a middle-of-the-pack pace team (18th) while throwing at the eighth-highest rate in close games.
• The Chargers keep blazing a trail over their last five games, ranking fourth in neutral pace and first in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa has an ankle ailment, but he practiced in full on Friday. He doesn’t have an injury tag this week. He should be a full go. Tagovailoa has been lights out. He’s first in PFF passing grade (minimum 100 dropbacks), eighth in fantasy points per dropback, and top 12 in nearly every completion percentage metric. He is a locked high-end QB1 against an overrated Chargers secondary. Since Week 10, they are 17th in success rate per dropback, 25th in passing yards per game, and 30th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Justin Herbert: Since Week 11, with healthier weapons, Herbert has QB9, QB3, and QB9 finishes. He is 15th in adjusted completion rate, 16th in yards per attempt, and eighth in big-time throws (minimum 25 dropbacks). The season-long numbers for Miami’s pass defense lie. Since Week 10, they are second in pass defense DVOA, third in success rate per dropback, tenth in passing yards per game, and sixth in explosive pass rate allowed. Herbert is a low-end QB1.

Running Backs

Week 13

Weeks 9-10

Jeff Wilson: There isn’t much to take away from last week’s game against the 49ers. Yes, Wilson only ran the ball once, but the Dolphins had only eight rushing attempts. They went with a pass-heavy approach to avoid one of the league’s best run defenses. For clarity, let’s revisit Weeks 9-10 when both backs were active. Wilson led the duo in rushing attempts, targets, routes, and red zone chances. He was the clear first back up in the rotation. Wilson averaged 15.5 touches and 107.5 total yards. Wilson is 30th in evaded tackles, fifth in breakaway run rate, and ninth in yards per touch. He should destroy the Bolts’ run defense. Since Week 10, Los Angeles is 31st in rushing success rate, 29th in rushing yards per game, and 20th in explosive run rate allowed. Los Angeles allows the fourth-highest fantasy points per game to running backs and the highest yards per carry in the NFL. Wilson is an RB2.

Raheem Mostert: In Weeks 9-10, Mostert averaged 10.5 touches and 56.5 total yards. He was the RB25 and RB10 in fantasy. Mostert is 24th in yards per touch, 19th in breakaway run rate, and 40th in evaded tackles. With 10-15 touch upside, Mostert is an RB2/3.

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler is the RB1 in fantasy, ranking first in weighted opportunity, 11th in opportunity share, and second in red zone touches. He is seventh in yards per route run, 19th in evaded tackles, and 18th in breakaway run rate. Ekeler has averaged 18.6 touches and 96.1 total yards. He is second in target share (21.5%), first in receptions, and first in receiving yards among running backs. Since Week 10, Miami is 12th in rushing success rate, sixth in rushing yards per game, and sixth in explosive run rate allowed. While none of that is good news, there is a silver lining. Miami is also 22nd in DVOA against receiving backs giving up the eighth-most receiving yards and sixth-highest yards per reception. Ekeler is a top-three running back.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: Hill is the WR4 with a 32.3% target share (second) and 38.6% air yard share (eighth). He is first among wide receivers in deep targets and has seven red zone targets over his last four games played. Hill is first in YAC and yards per route run. He should have a field day against a secondary, allowing the third-most deep passing touchdowns. Hill will run about 55% of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (61.5% catch rate, 106.5 passer rating) and Michael Davis (56.5% catch rate, 80.7 passer rating).

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle practiced in full on Thursday and Friday. After starting Wednesday with a limited practice (fibula), he’s ready to go this week. Waddle has hit a rough patch. His last WR1 finish came in Week 9 against the Bears. He has a 22.3% target share while ranking fifth in receiving yards and ninth in YAC. He’s been the team’s underneath threat while also mixing into the deep passing mix (22nd in deep targets). Waddle is a WR2 that will run about 74% of his routes against Samuel Jr. and Davis. This game sets up better for Hill as the Chargers have the eighth-fewest missed tackles, and seventh-lowest YAC surrendered.

Keenan Allen: Since Week 11, Allen has a 23.6% target share, 55.6% end zone target share, and 42% air yard share while producing 1.98 yards per route run. Allen has touchdowns in each of his last two games with four red zone targets. Allen is a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 that will run about 67% of his routes against Kader Kohou (66.1% catch rate, 83.2 passer rating).

Joshua Palmer: Since Week 11, Palmer has been tied with Alen for the team lead with a 23.6% target share averaging 79.3 receiving yards with 1.79 yards per route run. Palmer’s issue is his 11.1% end zone target share over this stretch. While the volume is nice, Palmer’s ceiling is capped without touchdowns, and currently, with Allen back, it’s looking like those will have to come via a big play. Palmer only has two red zone targets over his last five games. Palmer is a WR3 that will run about 73% of his routes against Xavien Howard (Since Week 7: 54.5% catch rate, 72.0 passer rating) and Keion Crossen (64.3% catch rate, 141.1 passer rating).

Mike Williams: Williams practiced in full on Thursday and Friday and doesn’t have an injury designation this week. In Weeks 1-7, Williams had a 19.9% target share, 31.2% end zone target share, and 37.4% air yard share with 1.79 yards per route run. Williams has nine deep targets, and ten red zone targets in seven full games played. He will run about 84% of his routes against Howard and Crossen as a WR2.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki: Gesicki has disappeared from the fantasy radar. Since Week 11, he has had a 2.8% target share and 41.7% route run rate. If he’s still on your roster in redraft, cut him loose to the waiver wire.

Gerald Everett: Excluding his injury-shortened Week 10, Everett has a 14.8% target share and 62.5% route run rate. Everett is 13th in PFF receiving grade, 19th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets), and sixth among tight ends in red zone targets. He has accrued five weeks nestled inside the top ten fantasy tight ends. Miami is 29th in DVOA against tight ends, allowing the eighth-most receiving yards per game, second-highest catch rate, and fourth-most receiving touchdowns. Everett is a top-eight tight-end option this week.

LV vs. LAR | NYJ vs. BUF | CLE vs. CIN | HOU vs. DAL | MIN vs. DET | JAC vs. TEN | PHI vs. NYG | BAL vs. PIT | KC vs. DEN | TB vs. SF | CAR vs. SEA | MIA vs. LAC | NE vs. ARI