Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• LAC -2.5, O/U 50.5
• Chargers vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game environment sets up similarly to the Chiefs and Bengals. The Chargers lead the NFL in neutral pace, which will push the Raiders, who are ranked 17th.
• This contest will be another passing volume buffet as the Chargers are fourth in neutral passing rate, followed by the Raiders, who rank seventh.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: It’s amazing what healthy(ish) pass-catching weapons can do for an elite quarterback. Herbert has been the QB9 and QB3 in fantasy over the last two weeks after only one top-12 game in his previous five contests. Herbert remains one of the best quarterbacks in the game, ranking 11th in PFF passing grade, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and 13th in big-time throws. The Raiders are hot garbage as a pass defense. Since Week 7, they are 32nd in success rate per dropback, 30th in EPA per drop back, and 29th in passing yards per game allowed. Herbert is a strong QB1 with a top-five upside.

Derek Carr: Hello, Derek Carr. Back-to-back QB1 finishes (QB11, QB10) have piqued my interest. Carr has now thrown for multiple touchdowns in four straight games. Not only has his fantasy value rebounded, but his real-life level of play has been much better recently. Since Week 9, he’s sitting at 20th in PFF passing grade, 11th in yards per attempt, and tenth in big-time throw rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). Carr is a borderline QB1. Since Week 7, the Chargers are 20th in success rate per dropback, 28th in EPA per drop back, and 23rd in explosive pass rate allowed.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler is the king. The RB1 in fantasy averaging 18.9 touches and 95.6 total yards. After a one-week scare regarding his target volume, he bounced back with 15 targets last week to allay any fears once and for all about his role in the passing attack. Ekeler is 12th in opportunity share, first in weighted opportunities, and second in red zone touches. He’s also 19th in evaded tackles, tenth in yards per route run, and 12th in breakaway runs. He’s on a legendary pace with a 22.3% target share, 80 receptions (first), and 497 receiving yards (first). Since Week 7, the Raiders are 19th in rushing success rate, 16th in rushing yards per game, and 16th in explosive run rate allowed. Don’t be surprised if he gets another 15 targets against this defense that’s 32nd in DVOA against receiving backs. The Raiders have allowed the third-most receptions, the most receiving yards, and the third-highest yards per reception to running backs. Ekeler is the RB1 overall this week.

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is coming off a legendary performance that won’t be soon forgotten. He’s still dealing with a tenuous calf issue which led to limited practices all week. Jacobs has been listed as questionable. We’ll treat Jacobs like he’ll see his usual workload this week and adjust further if we get more news before kickoff. Jacobs is the RB2 in fantasy averaging 23.2 touches and 134.9 total yards. He’s first in opportunity share, third in weighted opportunities, and 16th in red zone touches. Jacobs is seventh in juke rate, second in evaded tackles, and third in breakaway runs. The Chargers remain a heavenly matchup for running backs. Since Week 7, Los Angeles is 32nd in rushing yards per game, 24th in EPA per rush, and 22nd in explosive run rate allowed. Jacobs is a top-three running back.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: Allen saw his route run rate rise to 90.7% last week, as he finally looks like he’s 100%. Since his return, he has had a 19.2% target share, 66.7% end zone target share, 34.6% air yard share, and 1.93 yards per route run. The Raiders have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers. Allen will run about 66% of his routes against their new slot corner Tyler Hall (career: 80% catch rate, 157.1 passer rating). Allen is a WR1.

Mike Wiliams: Williams has been ruled out this week.

Joshua Palmer: Since Week 9, Palmer has had a 23.1% target share, 45.3% air yard share, 0.64 WOPR, and 1.98 yards per route run. He’s finished as a WR2 or better in three of his last five games. If there’s any ding in the armor, it’s that his red zone usage has been sporadic. He has only two red zone targets over his last four games. Palmer will run about 73% of his routes against Sam Webb (77.8% catch rate, 101.1 passer rating) and Rock Ya-Sin (60.4% catch rate, 86.2 passer rating) as a WR3.

Davante Adams: Adams’ ruthless stretch run had to cool down sometime. Last week’s 74 receiving yards marked the first game since Week 8 that he hadn’t rolled up at least 126 receiving yards. This week is perfect for him to start a new streak of domination. Adams has a 32.4% target share (first), 30.5% target per route rate (seventh), and 38.5% air yard share (seventh-best). He’s also fifth in deep targets, fourth in red zone targets, and 15th in yards per route run among wideouts. Adams is an elite WR1 that will run about 68% of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (59.7% catch rate, 98.9 passer rating) and Michael Davis (61.5% catch rate, 88.2 passer rating).

Mack Hollins: Since Week 10 without Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow in the lineup, Hollins has a 17.9% target share, 28% air yard share, and 1.19 yards per route run. Hollins has finished as a top 36 wide receiver in two of those three games (WR34, WR21). Hollins has been Carr’s favorite deep weapon outside of Adams, as he’s 16th in deep targets. Hollins is a WR4 that’ll run about 86% of his routes against Davis and Samuel Jr.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: Everett is the TE9 in fantasy points per game with a 14.3% target share and 62.1% route participation clip. He’s sixth among tight ends in red zone targets while also ranking 21st in yards per route run. Everett has been a top-ten fantasy tight end four times this season. This week’s matchup against the Raiders could be his fifth. The Raiders have surrendered the eighth-highest catch rate and fifth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to tight ends. Everett is a TE1.

Foster Moreau: Since assuming the starting role, Moreau has a 15.6% target share, 38.5% end zone target share, and 81.4% route run rate. Since Week 7, he’s 17th in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Moreau is a TE1. Los Angeles is 26th in DVOA, allowing the highest yards per reception and 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

PIT vs. ATL | GB vs. CHI | JAC vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIN | WAS vs. NYG | TEN vs. PHI | DEN vs. BAL | CLE vs. HOU | SEA vs. LAR | MIA vs. SF | KC vs. CIN | LAC vs. LV | IND vs. DAL | NO vs. TB | BUF vs. NE

Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys

• DAL -9.5, O/U 43.5
• Colts vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The play volume in this game will surprise people. Since Week 10, the Colts are seventh in neutral pace, followed by Dallas, who sits at eighth.
• Dallas has turned into a run-centric team over their last three games, ranking ninth in neutral rushing rate. The Colts, over that period, are 18th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan: Ryan is a cooked game manager at his point in his career. He has had one game all season with more than 7.5 yards per attempt and only two passing touchdowns since his return in Week 10. Since Week 11, he’s finished as the QB22 and QB28 in fantasy scoring. He’s a low-end QB2 against a Dallas defense that’s 12th in success rate per dropback and second in EPA per dropback since Week 7. Dallas is also first in pressure rate, which will rattle Ryan this week.

Dak Prescott: Since his Week 7 return to the huddle, Prescott has been dealing. He’s fourth in PFF passing grades, sixth in yards per attempt, and seventh in adjusted completion rate. Prescott has been a top-ten fantasy quarterback in three of those five games. The Cowboys’ new run-balanced approach should serve them well against a Colts team that’s fifth in success rate per dropback, sixth in EPA per drop back, and fourth in passing yards per game allowed since Week 7. Prescott is a low-end QB1.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor has been a true bell-cow with 92% or higher snaps counts in two of his last three games. Overall this season, he’s the RB17 in fantasy averaging 21.7 touches and 98.7 total yards. With a 13% target share and 69.2% route run rate since Week 10, Taylor is closer to becoming a matchup-proof running back. Over his last three games as a fully healthy player, Taylor is 14th in yards after contact per attempt, 15th in breakaway rate, and 13th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Since Week 7, Dallas is tenth in rushing success rate, 27th in rushing yards per game, and 31st in explosive run rate allowed. Taylor is a locked-in RB1.

Ezekiel Elliott: Since returning in Week 11, Elliott has averaged 15.5 rushing attempts and 67 rushing yards with three total touchdowns. With only a 24.6% route run rate over this span, Elliott has made the full conversion to Damien Harris of Dallas. That’s probably shading Harris too much, to be honest. Elliott isn’t nearly as efficient as Harris. Elliott is 37th in evaded tackles, 45th in juke rate, and 29th in breakaway runs. Since Week 7, Indy has been 18th in rushing success rate, eighth in EPA per rush, and 12th in rushing yards per game. Elliott is a touchdown-dependent RB3.

Tony Pollard: Since Week 11, Pollard has taken over the lead back role averaging 56% of the snaps with 20.5 touches and 125 total yards per game. Pollard has a 14% target share and 34.4% route run rate in this brief two-game snippet. Pollard is the RB11 in fantasy, ranking 17th in evaded tackles, fourth in breakaway run rate, 15th in yards created per touch, and fifth in yards per route run. Pollard is an RB2 despite the tough matchup.

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman: Pittman is the WR18 in fantasy points per game with a 26.1% target share (18th) and 27.9% air yard share. Pittman is 34th in PFF receiving grade and 45th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). He’s been the chain mover for Indy with only two deep targets. With only eight red zone targets this season and two since Ryan’s return, Pittman’s lack of a role inside the 20 has been head-scratching all year. Pittman is a WR3 who could be erased by Trevon Diggs (63.6% catch rate, 81.3 passer rating) this week. Diggs followed Justin Jefferson on 82% of his routes in Week 11 and could easily do the same this week. Diggs limited Jefferson to two receptions and 19 receiving yards.

Parris Campbell: Campbell disappeared last week with only three targets and 14 receiving yards. If Diggs follows Pittman, look for Ryan to hone in on Campbell this week. Since Week 6 with Ryan under center, Campbell has a 21.6% target share, 33.3% end zone target share, and 1.51 yards per route run. Campbell finished as a WR3 or higher in four of those five games. Campbell is a WR3/4 that will run about 80% of his routes against DaRon Bland (87.1% catch rate, 100.7 passer rating).

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is the WR11 in fantasy with a monstrous 31.2% target share (second-best) and 39.2% air-yard share (sixth). Lamb is seventh in PFF receiving grades and sixth in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). His red zone usage has risen, with five targets inside the 20 over his last four games. Lamb is also tenth in deep targets. Lamb will run about 58% of his routes against Kenny Moore (76.3% catch rate, 121.4 passer rating). Lamb is a WR1.

Michael Gallup: Gallup’s eight targets last week against the Giants’ man coverage heavy defense were a season-high, yet he could still only muster 63 scoreless yards. Gallup still hasn’t been able to climb into the WR3 territory since Week 4. With only two red zone targets since Week 7 and 1.40 yards per route run (72nd) overall this season, Gallup is a WR5.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: With Prescott back, Schultz has a 19.1% target share, 50% end zone target share, and 2.42 yards per route run. Schultz has had a 59.6% route run rate since Week 10. Schultz is the TE10 in fantasy points per game with the fifth-most red zone targets among tight ends as he continues to operate as the Cowboys’ WR2. Schultz is a top-five tight end against a Colts’ defense that’s 28th in DVOA, allowing the third-highest catch rate and 12th-highest yards per reception.

PIT vs. ATL | GB vs. CHI | JAC vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIN | WAS vs. NYG | TEN vs. PHI | DEN vs. BAL | CLE vs. HOU | SEA vs. LAR | MIA vs. SF | KC vs. CIN | LAC vs. LV | IND vs. DAL | NO vs. TB | BUF vs. NE

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• TB -4, O/U 40
• Saints vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Saints are 22nd in neutral pace and 12th in neutral rushing rate. It’s Alvin Kamara all the time.
• Tampa Bay will live and die by the arm of Tompa Brady. They are second in neutral pace and third in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton: Dalton is the QB23 in fantasy, with only two QB1 finishes this season. He’s 14th in fantasy points per dropback, eighth in accuracy rating, 11th in yards per attempt, and 20th in QBR. Since Week 7, Tampa Bay has been tenth in success rate per dropback, 14th in EPA per drop back, and 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Dalton remains a QB2.

Tom Brady: Since becoming a Buccaneer, the Saints have largely had Brady’s number. In the last five regular-season starts against New Orleans, only once has he surpassed 7.0 yards per attempt. He’s been held under 250 passing yards four times and only twice thrown for multiple passing touchdowns. Since Week 7, New Orleans is eighth in success rate per dropback, 13th in EPA per dropback, second in passing yards per game and third in explosive pass rate allowed. Brady is a borderline QB1.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara: Kamara is the RB13 in fantasy averaging 18 touches and 94.6 total yards. Apparently, I missed the memo that Kamara can only score touchdowns against the Raiders this season. That’s how it has played out. All three of his scores came in Week 8, and outside of that game, it’s been a barren wasteland for six-point dances. Kamara is 30th in red zone touches and seventh in weighted opportunity. While he’s not prime Kamara, he’s still good enough, ranking sixth in yards per route run, 29th in evaded tackles, and seventh in yards created per touch. Since Week 7, the Bucs are eighth in rush success rate, 23rd in rushing yards per game, and 30th in explosive run rate allowed. Kamara remains an RB1.

Leonard Fournette: Fournette could return this week. If he’s active he should return to his lead back role. In Weeks 1-9 Fournette averaged 18.1 touches and 79.9 total yards. Fournette is 12th in weighted opportunities, 11th in snap share, and 13th in opportunity share. He’s also 16th in evaded tackles and 27th in juke rate. The Saints run defense isn’t one to feat this year. They are 20th in rushing yards per game, 21st in EPA per rush, and 19th in explosive run rate allowed since Week 7. Fournette is an RB1 if active.

Rachaad White: Last week, White took over the lead role playing 90% of the snaps with 23 touches and 109 total yards. In Weeks 6-9 as a complement to Fournette, White averaged eight touches and 33 total yards. He’s 22nd in juke rate and yards per route rune while also ranking 35th in evaded tackles. White is an RB3 with upside if he carves into Fournette’s workload more this week.

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave: Olave is the WR19 in fantasy points per game and the clear alpha for the Saints. He has a 26.1% target share (16th), 40.7% air yard share (third-best), and league-leading 25 deep targets. Olave is also 12th in red zone targets, and 13th in yards per route run among wide receivers. Olave is a WR2 that will run about 67% of his routes against Carlton Davis (60.3% catch rate, 94.7 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (48.1% catch rate, 54.6 passer rating).

Jarvis Landry: In six full games played, Landry has only mustered two top-36 wide receiver finishes with a 16.5% target share and 1.61 yards per route run. His usage in the red zone has perked up over the last two weeks, though, with four looks inside the 20. Landry is an interesting flex play this week, as the Buccaneers are decimated in the slot coverage department. Mike Edwards, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Antoine Winfield are all doubtful. This leaves Keanu Neal likely to draw coverage duties inside opposite Landry. Neal has been dreadful this season in a limited sample size (42 slot coverage snaps), allowing a 90% catch rate, 152.1 passer rating, and one receiving touchdown. Last season in Dallas was much of the same for Neal, though, with an 87.5% catch rate and 103.6 passer rating allowed.

Mike Evans: The news that Marshon Lattimore will be out bumps Evans’ outlook. Evans hasn’t surpassed 70 receiving yards against the Saints since 2018. Across his last seven games against New Orleans, he’s scored two touchdowns. Lattimore has been the primary reason Evans has been quiet against the Saints. Losing Lattimore is huge and hurts the Saints’ chances to keep Evans quiet. With that said, Evans and Brady haven’t been on the same page, but this is a good spot for them to sync up. Evans is the WR20 in fantasy with a 20.5% target share (8.5 targets per game) and 34.7% air yard share (14th). Evans is also fourth in deep targets and 12th in red zone targets. Evans will run about 71% of his routes against Paulson Adebo (71.7% catch rate, 127.0 passer rating) and Alontae Taylor (46.3% catch rate, 62.0 passer rating). Evans is a WR1. 

Chris Godwin: Since Week 6, Godwin has a 26.8% target share, 23.9% air yard share, and 1.79 yards per route run. Godwin has only one game with fewer than ten targets in that stretch. Godwin is the WR16 in fantasy and the WR10 in expected fantasy points per game. With this bevy of volume and only two touchdowns this season, the touchdown regression monsoon is coming. Godwin is a WR1 that will run about 67% of his routes against Chris Harris (78% catch rate, 110.5 passer rating).

Julio Jones: Jones saw his route run rate climb to 67% last week, but with only a 13% target per route run rate and 9.5% target share, he’s still a bench stash or waiver wire material.

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson: Johnson has been ruled out. 

Adam Trautman: Trautman only has a 6.7% target share this season, but he’s managed 2.01 yards per route run and a 22% target per route run rate this season. With Johnson out, Taysom Hill could easily factor in more this week, but Trautman likely plays a nearly every-down role. Trautman is a viable tight end streaming option against the Buccaneers, who have conceded the eighth-most touchdowns and seventh-highest catch rate to tight ends.

Cameron Brate: Brate is a low-end TE2. Plain and simple, the Saints are the no-fly zone for tight ends. New Orleans is first in DVOA, holding tight ends to the lowest catch rate and seventh-lowest yards per reception. They’ve only allowed one receiving touchdown to a tight end this season.

PIT vs. ATL | GB vs. CHI | JAC vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIN | WAS vs. NYG | TEN vs. PHI | DEN vs. BAL | CLE vs. HOU | SEA vs. LAR | MIA vs. SF | KC vs. CIN | LAC vs. LV | IND vs. DAL | NO vs. TB | BUF vs. NE

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

• BUF -5, O/U 44
• Bills vs. Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Buffalo is no surprise here, ranking seventh and fifth in neutral pace and passing rate.
• However, New England offers an interesting wrinkle to consider surrounding this game. While they are still stuck in the mud (26th in neutral pace) since Week 9, their neutral passing rate has skyrocketed. Over their last three games, they are fourth in neutral passing rate (63.0%).

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: Allen has owned the Patriots in their last two meetings, completing 70.8% of his passes with 8.6 yards per attempt and averaging 311 passing yards (four passing touchdowns). Allen has been a tad up and down recently, but he rebounded nicely last week in fantasy as the QB1 overall. Allen’s weekly rushing floor and upside can mask any shortcomings in the passing box score. Despite small hiccups, Allen is sixth in PFF passing grade, second in big-time throw rate, and seventh in yards per attempt (minimum 100 dropbacks). The Patriots’ pass-defense stats are impressive on paper, but when we look at the quality of their opponents, there’s some worry this could be smoke and mirrors. New England has faced a laundry list of struggling passing attacks and non-impressive buffoons this season. The only two quarterbacks remotely close to Allen’s stratosphere that New England has played are Tua Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins. Tagovailoa tossed for 8.1 yards per attempt and 270 yards in his first start in a new offensive scheme. Cousins shredded this secondary last week, completing 81% of his passes with 8.0 yards per attempt and three scores. Allen is the QB1 overall again this week.

Mac Jones: After struggling for the entire season, Jones is finally coming out of his funk. Over the last two weeks, he’s seventh in PFF passing grade, fourth in yards per attempt, first in adjusted completion rate, and 16th in big-time throw rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). He destroyed Minnesota last week as the QB7 in fantasy. This week he looks to keep the train rolling against a reeling Buffalo secondary. The Bills’ pass defense hasn’t lived up to their lofty expectations since Week 7. Since then, they are 22nd in passing yards per game, 25th in EPA per drop back, and 22nd in explosive pass rate allowed. Jones is a strong QB2 that could again flirt with the top 12 if this game turns into a shootout.

Running Backs

Week 12

Devin Singletary: This remains Singletary’s backfield. Last week he played his usual 78% of snaps with 15 touches and 80 total yards. While Cook bested him in targets, it’s fake window dressing as Cook only ran nine routes versus Singletary’s 33. Singletary has been more efficient recently, with back-to-back games above 3.50 yards after contact per attempt. These two strong outings have helped pull him up to 38th in yards after contact per attempt, 26th in breakaway rate, and 41st in PFF elusive rating (minimum 25 rushing attempts). The Patriots have clamped down on running backs ranking seventh in rushing yards per game, first in EPA per rush, and fourth in explosive run rate allowed since Week 7. Singletary is an RB2.

James Cook: Cook’s day might jump off the page upon the first pass through the box score with his five targets, but as previously discussed, it’s fool’s gold. Cook played only 14 snaps with four touches and 18 total yards. Without any red zone work, he remains only a stash.

Nyheim Hines: Hines is droppable at this point. Since joining the Bills, he hasn’t played more than ten offensive snaps in any game. His primary contributions have come via special teams returning punts.

#Patriots RB Damien Harris, who is dealing with a thigh injury, is not expected to play this Thursday, source said. He's considered week-to-week going forward, an indication he'll miss some time.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 29, 2022

Damien Harris: Consider Harris out for this Thursday’s game.

Rhamondre Stevenson: MONDRE SZN rolls on! Since Week 5, Stevenson has averaged 20 touches and 110.1 total yards per game. Since Week 7, he has led all running backs in target share (25.2%) and receiving yards per game while ranking second in receptions only to Austin Ekeler. As good as Stevenson is as a pass catcher, there’s an argument that he’s even better in the rushing department, ranking 11th in yards after contact per attempt, 21st in breakaway rate, and 19th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Buffalo’s recent struggles to stop the run continue as they are 25th in rushing yards per game, 24th in explosive run rate, and 30th in rushing success rate since Week 7. Stevenson is a top-shelf RB1.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs: Diggs has commanded a 29.8% target share (sixth-best) and 36.4% air yard share (15th) while ranking eighth in weighted opportunity among wideouts (minimum 25 targets). He’s also seventh in yards per route run. Diggs is a weekly top-five wide receiver option. He’ll run about 65% of his routes against Jonathan Jones (51.3% catch rate, 59.6 passer rating) and Jalen Mills (60.0% catch rate, 79.2 passer rating). The Patriots have held him in check in their last two meetings, as he’s averaged 8.5 targets, five receptions, and 72.5 receiving yards (one score). While that’s something to note, I won’t put it past Diggs to destroy that trend this week.

Gabriel Davis: Davis has a 16.8% target share and a 30.4% air yard share as the WR27 in fantasy. Davis has seen a small uptick in the red zone usage lately (three targets over his last five games), but it’s still not enough to consider that as a focal point of his weekly usage. Davis’s primary role is the Robin to Diggs’ Batman in the deep passing game. Davis is second on the team in deep targets. Davis is a volatile WR2/3 that will run about 90% of his routes against Jones and Mills. New England is second in DVOA against deep passing, so I’m not forecasting a big Davis game in Week 13.

Isaiah McKenzie: After his playing time took a hit in Week 11, McKenzie rebounded last week with 73% of the snaps while drawing a 23.8% target share from Josh Allen with six receptions, 96 receiving yards, and a touchdown. McKenzie’s usage has been variable all season, with his 12.5% target share, 11% air yard share, and 59% route run rate. Mckenzie has enjoyed four red zone targets over his last three games played. He’ll run about 77% of his routes as a WR4/5 against Miles Bryant (68.4% catch rate, 95.7 passer rating).

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers got banged up last week, so we’ll see if he can suit up during a short week. If so, he should crush it this week. Meyers has a 23.2% target share and 32.2% air yard share. He continues to have the quietest baller season in recent memory, ranking 20th in PFF receiving grade and 16th in yards per route run as the WR24. Meyers is second on the team in deep targets. He’ll run about 70% of his routes against Taron Johnson (73.8% catch rate, 114.6 passer rating), who has been struggling mightily recently. Meyers is a WR2.

DeVante Parker: Parker’s usage and health have been a rollercoaster this season. Last week he saw an 87.8% route run rate with an 11.4% target share. Parker’s 17.8 aDOT and deep role (leads the team in deep targets) are interesting this week. Buffalo is fifth in deep ball completion rate and 13th in deep passing yards allowed. Meyers, Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne could impact Parker’s snap share this week, but his role as the downfield threat is still intact, even if his route run rate is limited to ~60%. Parker will run about 90% of his routes against Kaiir Elam (75.8% catch rate, 83.8 passer rating) and Dane Jackson (63.2% catch rate, 88.4 passer rating). Tre’Davious White played only seven coverage snaps last week. While his snap count could rise, it’s difficult to see him being pressed into an every-down role this quickly.

Tight Ends

Dawson Knox: Knox put up a dud in Week 12 with only two receptions for 17 yards. He snagged at least four balls in his two games prior and posted at least 57 receiving yards in each. Over his last six games, Knox has a 12.5% target share, a 26.7% end zone target share, and a 73.6% route run rate. Knox is a TE2 against a Patriots defense that’s 11th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the fourth-lowest catch rate and 12th-lowest receiving yards per game.

Hunter Henry: Last week Henry saw his route run rate climb back to 75.6% as he saw five targets securing three for 63 receiving yards and a score. This could simply be a flash in the pan, as Henry has an 8.9% target share and 57.2% route run rate over his last four games. Henry is a mid TE2 against a Buffalo defense that has shut down tight ends. The Bills are second in DVOA, holding tight ends to the 11th-lowest receiving yards per game and eighth-fewest fantasy points per game.

PIT vs. ATL | GB vs. CHI | JAC vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIN | WAS vs. NYG | TEN vs. PHI | DEN vs. BAL | CLE vs. HOU | SEA vs. LAR | MIA vs. SF | KC vs. CIN | LAC vs. LV | IND vs. DAL | NO vs. TB | BUF vs. NE