The Primer: Week 13 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans

• CLE -7, O/U 47.5
• Browns vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Browns are 21st in neutral pace with the tenth-highest neutral rushing rate, but all bets are off on how they operate this week with Deshaun Watson under center.
• Houston is 25th in neutral pace and 18th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson: I could quote preseason stats or stats from the last time we saw Watson under center, even before that, and they would be meaningless. The fact is, it’s difficult to project how this offense will operate with Watson under center. While he is a tangible upgrade in terms of talent from Jacoby Brissett, he also has little rapport with his skill players and will be dealing with rust from the long layoff. The Texans offer him a good matchup to get eased in after the long hiatus. Since Week 7, Houston is 27th in success rate per dropback, 25th in EPA per drop back, and 25th in explosive pass rate allowed. Look for Cleveland to work him in slowly while leaning on their rushing attack. This week, Watson has the talent and rushing upside to easily finish as a low-end QB1. He’s a borderline QB1.

Kyle Allen: The Kyle Allen experiment went as well as you should have expected last week. He was the QB26 in fantasy, ranking 33rd in PFF passing grade, 28th in yards per attempt, and 17th in adjusted completion rate. Allen is a low-end QB2. Since Week 7, Cleveland has been 24th in success rate per dropback, 18th in EPA per dropback, and 20th in explosive pass rate allowed. Allen is just keeping the seat warm for whoever the Texans select in the NFL Draft.

Running Backs

Nick Chubb: Chubb shook off the mini slump and got back on the 100-yard rushing horse last week against Tampa Bay. Chubb should steamroll the Texans this week. Chubb is the RB5 in fantasy averaging 19.7 touches and 108.3 total yards. He’s fifth in red-zone touches, 14th in weighted opportunities, and second in total touchdowns. Over the last two weeks, his snaps (55-59%), routes per game (16.5), and route run rate (37.9%) have all trickled up. In Weeks 1-10, he averaged 10.9 routes per game and a 30.1% route run rate. Chubb is first in evaded tackles, fifth in breakaway run rate, and 16th in yards created per touch. Since Week 7, Houston is 31st in rushing yards per game, 26th in EPA per rush, and 32nd in explosive run rate allowed. Chubb is a high-end RB1.

Kareem Hunt: Hunt hasn’t seen double-digit opportunities since Week 8. Over his last three games, he has averaged 6.6 touches and 31.4 total yards. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 7, with only two red zone opportunities since then. Looking at his week-to-week efficiency, it’s easy to see why the scales have tipped in Chubb’s favor. Hunt has surpassed 2.5 yards after contact only twice since Week 5. He’s forced only five missed tackles over his last five games. Hunt is an RB3/4 who could easily get into the endzone this week and crush these expectations.

Dameon Pierce: Pierce has been disappointing over the last two weeks averaging only ten touches with 16.5 total yards. The comfort that fantasy gamers can have is he wasn’t benched, as he played 77% and 56% of snaps in those contests. This week Pierce has a wonderful avenue for a bounce-back game. Before the fall, Pierce was averaging 20.7 touches and 99.8 total yards. Even with the two-game hiccup, Pierce is the RB21 in fantasy points per game. He’s sixth in evaded tackles, 16th in juke rate, and 12th in breakaway runs. Pierce is a solid RB2. Since Week 7, Cleveland has been 29th in rushing success rate, 32nd in EPA per rush, and 27th in explosive run rate allowed.

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper: Cooper has been flying high with Brissett as the WR12 in fantasy. He has been a high-end target earner ranking 14th in target share (26.6%), 12th in target per route run rate (28.1%), and fifth in air yard share (39.3%). Cooper ranks top 12 in deep targets (tenth) and red zone targets (12th) while sitting at 18th in yards per route run. With Watson’s effectiveness up in the air and Cleveland possibly not needing to throw a ton to win this game, Cooper is a mid range WR2. Cooper will run about 73% of his routes against Steven Nelson (61.9% catch rate, 85.6 passer rating) and Desmond King (68.8% catch rate, 80.7 passer rating).

Donovan Peoples-Jones: Since Week 4, Peoples-Jones has an 18.9% target share, 18.2% end zone target share, and 26.6% air yard share. Across his last eight games, he’s ranked 30th in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Over that period, he’s finished as a WR3 or higher six times. Peoples-Jones is a WR3/4 that will run about 70% of his routes against Nelson and King.

Nico Collins: Since Week 10, Collins has led the Texans wide receivers with a 24.1% target share, 33.3% end zone target share, 0.50 weighted opportunity, and 27% target per route run rate. Over his last three games, he’s finished as the WR19, WR40, and WR45 while drawing five red zone targets. Collins has seen a 53.6% catchable target rate (96th) this season, and it doesn’t look likely to improve with Allen under center. Collins is a WR4 that will run about 88% of his routes against Denzel Ward (70.3% catch rate, 113.8 passer rating) and Martin Emerson (58.2% catch rate, 83.6 passer rating).

Brandin Cooks: Since Collins’ emergence, Cooks has a 16.7% target share, 25.5% air yards share, and hasn’t drawn an end zone target. He’s only been targeted on 21% of his routes despite 1.98 yards per route run. Cooks hasn’t finished higher than a WR4 since Week 4. Cooks is a WR4/5 that will run about 70% of his routes against Ward and Emerson.

Tight Ends

David Njoku: Njoku has been ruled out. 

PIT vs. ATL | GB vs. CHI | JAC vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIN | WAS vs. NYG | TEN vs. PHI | DEN vs. BAL | CLE vs. HOU | SEA vs. LAR | MIA vs. SF | KC vs. CIN | LAC vs. LV | IND vs. DAL | NO vs. TB | BUF vs. NE

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

• SEA -5, O/U 40.5
• Seahawks vs. Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Seattle is 12th in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate. Cook Chef Geno. Cook.
• The Rams played keep away last week. They operated at 35.8 seconds per snap with a 68% neutral rushing rate. Those numbers are mind-numbingly slow and run heavy.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: Smith continues rocking along at QB9 in fantasy. He’s ninth in PFF passing grade, fifth in yards per attempt, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and third in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Smith is headed for another top-shelf fantasy performance. Since Week 7, the Rams have been 30th in success rate per dropback, 29th in EPA per drop back, and 31st in passing yards per game. Smith should torch a secondary that’s allowed the eighth-highest deep completion rate. Smith is fourth in deep completion rate and third in deep ball accuracy.

John Wolford: Matthew Stafford has been placed on the IR, so Wolford will be the starter moving forward. Wolford has a career 60.3% completion rate and 5.7 yards per attempt. In his two career starts, he has finished as the QB24 and QB25 in fantasy. He flashed some rushing upside in 2020 with six carries and 56 rushing yards in his only start. Since Week 7, Seattle is 18th in passing yards per game, 16th in EPA per drop back, and 18th in explosive pass rate allowed. Wolford is a QB2. 

Running Backs

Kenneth Walker: Since taking over as Seattle’s starter, he’s been the RB7 in fantasy averaging 20.9 touches and 94.8 total yards. He’s eighth in juke, eighth in evaded tackles, and top-ten breakaway runs and breakaway run rate. Even in his abbreviated run as the lead back, he’s third among running backs in red zone touches and has scored nine touchdowns (fifth-most). The Rams haven’t been near as giving on the ground. Since Week 7, they are fourth in rushing success rate, sixth in rushing yards per game, and third in explosive run rate allowed. Walker is a volume-based low-end RB1.

Week 12

Kyren Williams: Williams assumed the clear lead-back role last week. He played 70% of the snaps with 14 touches and 60 total yards. He only saw three targets but logged a 70% route run rate which is awesome. Williams’ 2.84 yards after contact per attempt and 54.7 PFF elusive rating are solid but not spectacular. Seattle has toughened up some against the rush. Since Week 7, they are third in rushing success rate but 22nd in rushing yards per game and 20th in explosive run rate. They remain dreadful against receiving backs ranking 32nd in DVOA with the sixth-most receptions and second-highest yards per reception allowed. Williams is an RB3 who could easily finish with RB2 numbers this week if Perkins feeds him some more dump-offs.

Cam Akers: Since Week 11, Akers has averaged 34.5% of snaps with 11 rushing attempts and 49 rushing yards. Akers ranks 45th in yards after contact per attempt and 53rd in PFF’s elusive rating. With zero pass-game involvement for a team that could not make it into the red zone and trails the entire game, Akers is a touchdown-or-bust RB4.

Wide Receivers

Tyler Lockett: The Rams are a zone-heavy defense. You know what that means. Lockett week is upon us again. Jalen Ramsey and Troy Hill have operated in zone on 66-69% of their coverage snaps this season. Lockett has seen 59% of his target volume against zone, where he ranks 14th in PFF receiving grade and 15th in yards per route run (minimum ten zone targets). Lockett is the WR17 in fantasy, commanding a 22.7% target share and 33.2% air yard share (17th). He’s also 13th in among wideouts in deep targets. Lockett will run about 56% of his routes against Ramsey (69.0% catch rate, 120.5 passer rating) and Hill (70.6% catch rate, 99.0 passer rating). Lockett is a borderline WR1.

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf is the WR25 in fantasy points per game with a 26.7% target share (12th) and 36.6% air yard share (12th). Metcalf is 19th in PFF receiving grade and 24th in yards per route run. He’s been Chef Geno’s main course in the red zone with 18 targets (third-most). Metcalf is a WR2 that will run about 81% of his routes against Ramsey and Hill. Metcalf has seen 50% of his target volume against zone, ranking 34th in PFF receiving grade and 33rd in yards per route run.

Van Jefferson: Jefferson saw his snaps rise to 87% last week as Perkins’ only full-time wide receiver. He garnered a season-high seven targets. Jefferson still hasn’t eclipsed 42 receiving yards in any game since his return. His two touchdowns in his last three games are keeping his value afloat. Jefferson is a WR5/6.

Tight Ends

SEA TEs: The Noah Fant and Will Dissly weekly dice roll streaming extravaganza isn’t worth the headache this week. The Rams are 12th in DVOA against tight ends holding the position to the third-fewest receptions and eighth-lowest catch rate. Fant and Dissly are TE2s that are better left on your bench this week.

Tyler Higbee: Higbee played 59% of the snaps last week and didn’t draw a single target. With the quarterback play for this offense hitting a new low and running the ball now the main focus, we can toss out most of the full-season stats for Higbee. Higbee becomes a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 weekly based on the matchups. This week’s opponent makes his streamer worthy. Seattle is 27th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the second-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game.

PIT vs. ATL | GB vs. CHI | JAC vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIN | WAS vs. NYG | TEN vs. PHI | DEN vs. BAL | CLE vs. HOU | SEA vs. LAR | MIA vs. SF | KC vs. CIN | LAC vs. LV | IND vs. DAL | NO vs. TB | BUF vs. NE

Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -3.5, O/U 46.5
• Dolphins vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, these offenses have been operating in similar manners. Each team is outside the top 20 in neutral pace (MIA 22nd, SF 29th) and inside the top 15 in neutral passing rate (MIA 13th, SF 14th).

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa added another beautiful game to the resume last week against the Texans, where he tossed for 299 yards with 8.3 yards per attempt. With only one passing touchdown and the Dolphins trouncing the Texans, they pulled him, so he finished as the QB18 for the week. Before that, Tagovailoa was a top-five fantasy quarterback in three consecutive games. He’s still putting on a clinic this season, ranking first in PFF passing grade, first in yards per attempt, second in adjusted completion rate, and first in deep ball accuracy. The 49ers’ once-vaunted pass defense has withered. Since Week 7, they are 24th in passing yards per game, 17th in EPA per dropback, 28th in explosive pass rate, and 17th in success rate per dropback. Tagovailoa is a top-five quarterback.

Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo is a borderline QB1 weekly. He’s concluded the week as a QB1 in four of his last seven games. Garoppolo is a sum-of-the-parts quarterback, like Andy Dalton in his prime. Garoppolo is 17th in PFF passing grade and 19th in adjusted completion rate, but with the exquisite playmakers around him, he’s fifth in yards per attempt and 12th in fantasy points per dropback. The Dolphins’ secondary possesses more resistance now than they did earlier this season. Since Week 7, they are 11th in success rate per dropback, ninth in EPA per drop back, and first in explosive pass rate allowed.

Running Backs

Jeff Wilson: Wilson didn’t pop up on the injury report to open the week, so, despite last week’s injury scare, he looks good to go this week. In Weeks 9-10, Wilson averaged 56% of the snaps played with 15.5 touches and 107.5 total yards (RB8, RB7). Wilson is 29th in evaded tackles, sixth in breakaway run rate, and tenth in yards per touch. He’s in store for a tough day at the office against his former team. Since Week 7, the 49ers are 14th in rushing yards per game, tenth in EPA per rush, and 11th in explosive run rate allowed. Wilson is a mid/low-end RB2.

Raheem Mostert:  In Weeks 9-10 Mostert quickly lost work to Wilson with only 28% of the snaps, 12 touches, and 87 total yards in his last game before succumbing to injury. Mostert has been RB25 and RB10 in his last two games with Wilson on the team. Mostert is 38th in evaded tackles, 18th in breakaway runs, and 24th in yards per touch. Mostert is an RB3/4.

Christian McCaffrey: Despite the knee concerns and injury scare, McCaffrey isn’t listed on the injury report and looks good to go. In four games with the 49ers’, McCaffrey has averaged 18.3 touches and 95.3 total yards. In his full games played with his new team, he’s RB2, RB11, RB11, and RB38. McCaffrey is 14th in evaded tackles, 30th in juke rate, and tenth in breakaway runs. Since Week 7, Miami is 14th in rushing success rate, 10th in rushing yards per game, and 14th in explosive run rate allowed. McCaffrey is a low-end RB1.

Tyrion Davis-Price: Davis-Price will likely be the second back up in the rotation. He’s only mustered 2.31 yards after contact per attempt on his 16 carries this season. Davis-Price has only forced three missed tackles. He’ll spell McCaffrey while possible also losing a few touches to Jordan Mason. He’s an RB4.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: Hill is the WR4 in fantasy with his 31.2% target share (third-best), 34.!% target per route rate (second), and 37.9% air yard share (ninth). Hill is second in deep targets and first in yards per route run. He leads the league in receptions and receiving yards. Hill will annihilate a secondary that’s 29th in DVOA against deep passing allowing the 13th-highest deep ball completion rate. Hill will run about 55% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (57.7% catch rate, 78.7 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (77.1% catch rate, 103.6 passer rating).

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle has a 22.8% target share and 29.1% air yard share as the Dolphins’ underneath weapon. Waddle is the WR9 in fantasy, ranking fifth in receiving yards and seventh in YAC. He’s fourth in yards per route run and fantasy points per target. Waddle will see Ward and Lenoir on 77% of his routes. Waddle is a WR1.

Deebo Samuel: Since McCaffrey’s arrival, Samuel has had a 23.4% target share, 13.4% air yard share, and 1.51 yards per route run. His 3.3 aDOT and 7.3 targets per game are too constricting as he’s averaged 41.3 receiving yards per game. He’s finished outside the top 50 wide receivers in fantasy in two of his last three games, with a WR5 week sandwiched in between. Samuel is a glorified low-end WR2/high-end WR3 unless McCaffrey misses, then he can be bumped up into the mid-WR2 range. Samuel will run about 61% of his routes against Xavien Howard (Since Week 9: 50% catch rate, 97.1 passer rating) and Keion Crossen (66.7% catch rate, 137.5 passer rating).

Brandon Aiyuk: Since Week 8, Aiyuk has a 20.8% target share (62.5 receiving yards per game), 20% end zone target share, 33.7% air yard share, and 2.21 yards per route run. Aiyuk has been a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in two of his last four games (WR11, WR15). He’s been excellent all season, ranking 15th in PFF receiving grade and 27th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Aiyuk has ten red zone targets (21st), and six have come in his last four games. Aiyuks is a WR2 that will run about 73% of his routes against Howard and Crossen.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki: Gesicki has become an afterthought in this offense. Since Week 8, he has had a 7.5% target share (2.5 targets per game), averaging 18 receiving yards with a 57.9% route run rate and 0.82 yards per route run. Gesicki is a TE2. The 49ers are ninth in DVOA against the tight end, holding them to the second-lowest yards per reception and fifth-lowest fantasy points per game.

George Kittle: Kittle could blow up with a vintage game this week. He’s the TE6 seeing an 18.4% target share (eighth-best) and 15.3% air yard share (seventh-best). Kittle is ranked ninth in PFF receiving grade and sits at 11th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). Miami can’t guard tight ends this season, ranking 29th in DVOA, bleeding out the third-highest catch rate, sixth-highest receiving yards per game, and third-most fantasy points per game. Kittle could fight Kelce for TE1 overall this week.

PIT vs. ATL | GB vs. CHI | JAC vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIN | WAS vs. NYG | TEN vs. PHI | DEN vs. BAL | CLE vs. HOU | SEA vs. LAR | MIA vs. SF | KC vs. CIN | LAC vs. LV | IND vs. DAL | NO vs. TB | BUF vs. NE

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• KC -2.5, O/U 52
• Chiefs vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Kansas City is fifth in neutral pace this season and will push Cincinnati (16th in neutral pace).
• This game should be a passing attempt bonanza as the Chiefs are first in neutral passing rate, followed by the Bengals, who rank second.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes is unstoppable. He’s the QB2 in fantasy who has finished as a top-six quarterback in eight of his 11 games. He’s second in PFF passing grade, second in yards per attempt, first in passing touchdowns, and seventh in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Since losing Chidobe Awuzie, the Bengals are 16th in success rate per dropback, 20th in EPA per drop back, and 20th in explosive pass rate allowed. Time to be the Reaper Mahomes.

Joe Burrow: While it would be easy to sit here and heap one-sided praise in the direction of Mahomes, that would be rude to Burrow. Burrow has also been ridiculous this season. He’s the QB4 in fantasy, ranking eighth in fantasy points per dropback, first in accuracy rating, eighth in yards per attempt, and 12th in true completion rate. Since Week 7, Kansas City has been ninth in success rate per dropback and tenth in EPA per dropback, but they are also 26th in explosive pass rate allowed. There isn’t a secondary on this planet that Burrow can’t rip to pieces, especially if Chase is back. Fire him up as a mid-range QB1.

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco: Since Week 10, Pacheco has averaged 18 touches and 91.7 total yards with RB36, RB23, and RB16 finishes. He’s 36th in yards after contact per attempt, 37th in breakaway run rate, and 50th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Last week he dominated the red zone work with a whopping 12 carries inside the 20. With D.J. Reader back in the fold, the Bengals are seventh in rushing success rate, 11th in EPA per rush, and seventh in explosive run rate allowed. Pacheco is an RB2 despite the tough sledding he faces in Week 13.

Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon logged DNPs on Wednesday and Thursday before upgrading to a full session on Friday. With only ten touches and 50 total yards across his last two games played, he’s too difficult to trust as even a low-end flex in a tough matchup in Week 13.

Joe Mixon: Mixon has practiced on just a limited basis all week. That, coupled with the above headline, makes me suspicious that Mixon returns this week. If Mixon is active, treat him as a full go. Mixon is the RB7 in fantasy averaging 21 touches and 95.2 total yards in full games played. His efficiency has been a glaring eye-sore all season. He ranks 55th in juke rate, 40th in evaded tackles, and 34th in yards per touch. His 14.1% target share (sixth), eighth-best weighted opportunity, and third-highest red zone touch count have been saving graces for his fantasy value. Kansas City has been an average matchup on the ground for backs ranking 18th in EPA per rush and 12th in explosive run rate allowed. Where Mixon could smash is in the passing game. The Chiefs are 28th in DVOA, allowing the second-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to running backs. Mixon is an RB1 if active.

Samaje Perine: Perine is a handcuff only if Mixon is active. If Mixon is out then Perine is a plug and play RB1. He averaged 18 touches and 87.5 total yards as the RB2 and RB10 in fantasy over the last two weeks. Perine ranks 23rd in yards after contact per attempt and 27th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries).

Wide Receivers

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Last week, Smith-Schuster only drew an 8.1% target share while handling a 45.7% route run rate. This could easily have been a means of easing him back in coming off the concussion in a game where they didn’t need to push him to win. In Weeks 1-9, Smith-Schuster had a 19.4% target share, 21.2% air yard share, and 2.05 yards per route run. He managed ten red zone targets. Assuming Smith-Schuster is a full-time player in Week 13, he’s a WR2 that will run about 56% of his routes against Eli Apple (56.3% catch rate, 95.6 passer rating) and Cam Taylor-Britt (78.9% catch rate, 127.9 passer rating). Toney was also a DNP on Wednesday. It looks like he could miss another week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling has been a role player. In Weeks 1-9, he had a 12.4% target share averaging 47.6 receiving yards per game with 1.36 yards per route run. He’s essentially Demarcus Robinson 2.0. A cardio king that will pop off for a big game in the week that you never considered playing him. Valdes-Scantling has finished outside the top 48 wide receivers in fantasy in seven of his 11 games. He’s a WR5/6.

Kadarius Toney: Toney has been ruled out. 

Skyy Moore: Since Week 11, Moore has had a 17.6% target share, 3.19 yards per route run, and a 39% target per route run rate. Those numbers all look fantastic, right? Except for the fact that he’s only managed a 36.9% route run rate. Andy Reid make it make sense. Moore is unplayable until the route run rate climbs (if it ever does).

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday before sneaking in a full walkthrough on Friday. Chase has stated he’s hopeful of playing, but the above quotes scare me that Chase could be ruled out, or we get news that he’ll be on a pitch count. Chase is the WR7 in fantasy this season with a 27.7% target share and 25.9% target per route run rate. He is sixth among wide receivers in red zone targets, with eight deep targets in seven games. Even on a limited snap count Chase is a WR2 if active and an obvious WR1 if he’s a full-time player.

Tee Higgins: Higgins showed the Chiefs in the playoffs last year that he’s a baller securing six of his ten targets for 106 receiving yards. Higgins is the WR15 in fantasy this season with a 20.0% target share and 29.9% air yard share (23rd). He’s ranked 11th in PFF receiving grades and 14th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Higgins is a WR2 that will run about 77% of his routes against Trent McDuffie (52.6% catch rate, 82.8 passer rating) and Joshua Williams (67.9% catch rate, 129.0 passer rating).

Tyler Boyd: Boyd is the WR36 in fantasy points per game with a 14.9% target share and 201.% air yard share. He’s outside the top 50 wide receivers in deep targets (53rd) and red zone targets (61st). He’s coming off back-to-back dud games as the WR55 and WR83 in fantasy for those weeks. Before that, he had rattled off three consecutive top 36 wide receiver weeks. Boyd ranks 64th in yards per route run and fantasy points per route run. He’ll run about 82% of his routes against L’Jarius Snead (70.6% catch rate, 101.2 passer rating). Boyd is a WR3/4.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Is Kelce active? Ok. Then you play him. #analysis Seriously though, Kelce has only finished lower than TE4 once this season. ONCE. That type of consistency at any position is crazy, much less tight end. Kelce is top-three in target share, air yard share, red zone targets, and yards per route run, among many other areas. No defense can contain him.

Hayden Hurst: Hurst is the TE11 in fantasy with a 14.9% target share and seven red zone targets (14th). Hurst has four top-12 fantasy tight-end games on his resume. He’s ranked 21st in PFF receiving grade and 36th in yards per route run. Hurst is a borderline TE1. The Chiefs are 20th in DVOA, allowing the 11th-highest yards per reception and eighth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to tight ends.

PIT vs. ATL | GB vs. CHI | JAC vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIN | WAS vs. NYG | TEN vs. PHI | DEN vs. BAL | CLE vs. HOU | SEA vs. LAR | MIA vs. SF | KC vs. CIN | LAC vs. LV | IND vs. DAL | NO vs. TB | BUF vs. NE