Derek Brown | Thu, Dec 1st 2022, 6:41am EST

The Primer: Week 13 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings

MIN -3, O/U 45.5
Jets vs. Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

In Mike White‘s first start, the Jets moved along at 30.2 seconds per snap with a 57.1% passing rate in their Week 12 neutral situations. This season that would rank 31st in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.
Minnesota continues to operate in a fashion that we love. They are tenth in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Mike White: The legend of Mike White grew even larger last week. White, in his first start of the season, finished with 315 passing yards and three scores as the QB6 for the week. White finished the week eighth in PFF passing grade, first in yards per attempt, and ninth in adjusted completion rate. These are all great things, but we also need a dose of reality mixed in here. White was also 26th in aDOT (5.9), so the truth is he was also making short throws, and his receivers were creating glory after the catch. The great thing for White is that this formula can be replicated successfully in Week 13. The Vikings have been a pass-funnel defense this season. Since Week 7, they are 32nd in passing yards per game, 29th in explosive pass rate, and 26 in success rate per dropback. Minnesota has also surrendered the 12th-most YAC, so White can pummel this defense with short throws once again. The Vikings’ 22nd ranked pressure rate should ensure he has clean pockets for most of the game. White is a QB2 that could find himself inside the top 12 again this week.

Kirk Cousins: Cousins came through last week as the QB9 in fantasy with 299 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Vikings effectively neutralized the Patriots’ pass rush last week, with Cousins quickly getting the ball out of his hands. He had the ninth-lowest time to throw and fourth-lowest aDOT last week. This will be the plan of attack again this week against a Jets front that’s fifth in pressure rate. New York is no cakewalk as they are seventh in passing yards per game, first in EPA per drop back, and fifth in explosive pass rate allowed since Week 7. They have allowed the 12th-fewest YAC and missed tackles, so don’t expect many 40-yard plays on a four-yard crossing route. Cousins is a borderline QB1/high-end QB2.

Running Backs

Michael Carter: Carter hasn’t practiced all week and has been listed as doubtful Consider him out for this week.

Zonovan Knight: In his first game action of the year, Knight played 48% of the snaps with 17 touches and 103 total yards last week. He managed a 10.7% target share last week but only ran eight routes versus Johnson’s nine. Knight did see the only red zone carry for the backfield in Week 12. A 14-carry sample size can be precarious to draw much from, but his 2.86 yards after contact per attempt and 151.3 PFF elusive rating are encouraging. Knight managed 2.67 yards after contact in the preseason with 15 carries. Knight looks to be stuck in a three headed committee this week as an RB3/4. Since Week 7, Minnesota is 16th in rushing success rate, seventh in EPA per rush, and 19th in explosive run rate allowed.

Ty Johnson: Last week, Johnson played 24% of the snaps with six touches that he turned into 78 total yards. Johnson will be a factor in this backfield, especially on passing downs, as he was second among the running backs last week with a 30% route run rate. Johnson has a sexy 5.50 yards after contact per attempt along with a 52.2% breakaway rate. He could work in tandem with Knight while playing a tad more on passing downs. Johnson is an RB4.

James Robinson: Robinson was inactive last week. While he could be active this week if Carter is out, it’s not a sure thing. Robert Saleh has stated that the entire running back rotation is “day-to-day.” Robinson could be the third option in this rotation. With only possibly 5-7 touches in this game and his abysmal efficiency, Robinson should not be tossed into any fantasy lineup.

Dalvin Cook: It’s been rough sledding for Cook over the last two games, as he’s run for 3.4 yards per carry. His offensive line has done him no favors, as he has the third-lowest yards before contact per carry (0.5) since Week 11. Cook didn’t make much for himself either (0.5 yards after contact per carry), so his offensive line isn’t the only culprit. Cook is the RB14 in fantasy averaging 17.6 touches and 91 total yards. This season Cook is 13th in yards after contact per attempt, 28th in breakaway rate, and 20th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Cook is an RB1, but the Jets aren’t a pushover matchup despite showing that they aren’t impervious since Week 7. Since then, they are ninth in rushing success rate, 17th in EPA per rush, and 11th in explosive run rate allowed.

Alexander Mattison: Mattison is only a handcuff. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 8, and only crested 20% of the snaps played once since then.

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: Wilson has produced whenever he’s managed to receive catchable targets. Last week was one of those weeks where he vacuumed up a 28.6% target share with 95 receiving yards and two scores. Wilson is the WR31 in fantasy with a 22.6% target share, 22.9% air yard share, and 12 red zone targets (11th-best). Wilson is 12th in PFF receiving grade and 25th in yards per route run despite suffering through a 73.4% catchable target rate (69th, woof). Wilson will run about 53% of his routes against Duke Shelley (2021: 76.1% catch rate, 103.8 passer rating) and Patrick Peterson (60.9% catch rate, 72.0 passer rating) as a WR2.

Corey Davis: Last week, Davis returned to the lineup seeing a 10.7% target share with a 76.7% route run rate (second-highest among wide receivers behind only Wilson). Davis likely sees his route rate climb further this week with only him and Wilson remaining on the field in both 11 and 12 personnel. In Weeks 1-6, Davis had a 15.2% target share, 29.1% air yard share, and 15.2 aDOT. Davis was playing good football, ranking 27th in PFF receiving grade and 26th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). He managed four red zone targets in those six games. Davis will run about 77% of his routes against Shelley and Peterson as a WR4/5.

Elijah Moore: Pump the brakes, Moore truthers. Yes, he did pop off for 64 receiving yards and a score, but he wasn’t close to being a full-time player last week. Moore only saw a 7.1% target share and a 43.3% route run rate. Each of these numbers has to climb for him to get consideration for fantasy lineups. For now, he’s a stash, but don’t plug him into your lineups expecting the same type of state line, although the matchup is beautiful. When on the field, he’ll run about 61% of his routes against Chandon Sullivan (80% catch rate, 113.2 passer rating).

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson. The unstoppable force. Jefferson is the WR3 in fantasy with a 29.4% target share (seventh-best) and 39.5% air-yard share (fourth-best). He’s also 13th in deep targets and first in red zone targets. Across his last eight games, Jefferson has fallen below six receptions and 98 receiving yards only once. He’ll run about 69% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (43.4% catch rate, 47.6 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (57.1% catch rate, 71.5 passer rating). While this corner duo has been amazing, this is Justin Jefferson we’re talking about. You’re never sitting him. It doesn’t matter the matchup. There isn’t a corner in the league that he can’t win against.

Adam Thielen: On the other hand, Thielen is someone you should consider putting on the bench this week. Thielen had a nice revival game last week, but all of his metrics still scream that he’s slowing down. Thielen has a 19.5% target share as he ranks 55th in fantasy points per target and 76th in yards per route run. He’s sixth among wide receivers in red zone targets which keeps him in the WR3/4 conversation. He’ll run about 67% of his routes against Gardner and Reed.

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: Conklin is the TE12 this season which is more an indictment of the position than a reason to feel good about playing him. Conklin has a 16.0% target share (13th-best), 69.2% route participation (16th), and 13.6% air yard share (12th). He’s 12th among tight ends with four deep targets, but he has only three red zone targets this season. Conklin rolls back into the TE1 borderline, and our streaming good graces this week with a plus matchup. Minnesota has allowed the ninth-highest catch rate, ninth-highest yards per reception, and eighth-most touchdowns to tight ends.

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson has been a volume behemoth since arriving in Minnesota with a 22.1% target share (8.5 targets per game) and 14.2% air yard share. The problem is he hasn’t done much with it. Since Week 9 among 23 tight ends (minimum eight targets), he’s 19th in PFF receiving grade, 17th in yards per route run, and 19th in YAC per reception. Hockenson has finished as the TE5, TE7, TE11, and TE5 over this span, just based on the volume. That keeps him in the top 5-8 tight-end conversation despite his inefficiencies and the horrible matchup this week. New York is 15th in catch rate and yards per reception allowed to tight ends, but they are only one of two teams (Buffalo) yet to allow a touchdown to tight ends.

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants

WAS -1.5, O/U 40.5
Commanders vs. Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

This game will be filled with a ton of rushing attempts. Since Week 6, Washington is third in neutral rushing rate, followed by New York at fourth.
Each team is non-impressive in the neutral pace department, ranking 16th (NYG) and 27th (WAS).

Quarterbacks

Taylor Heinicke: Heinicke is a weekly QB2. He hasn’t finished higher than QB24 across his last three games, with only two passing touchdowns. He’s only surpassed 250 yards passing and 7.5 yards per attempt once this season. The Commanders are only asking him to manage games at this point, as his passing yards have also declined in each of the last three weeks (138 in Week 12). The Giants aren’t a scary pass defense. Since Week 7, they are 19th in success rate per dropback, 24th in EPA per drop back, and 27th in explosive pass rate allowed. The Falcons aren’t a formidable defense, and the Commanders still nerfed Heinicke last week. If you’re looking for a ceiling from your QB2, look elsewhere this week.

Daniel Jones: Jones is the QB12 in fantasy with three QB1 finishes this year. He’s ranked 23rd in PFF passing grade, second in adjusted completion rate, and 19th in yards per attempt (minimum 100 dropbacks). What’s given him a weekly ceiling is his rushing upside. Jones is fifth in rushing yards, fourth in red zone carries, and fourth in rushing touchdowns. Jones is a QB2 in a rough matchup, as Washington’s pass defense has come on strong. Since Week 7, they are sixth in passing yards per game, third-highest EPA per drop back, and permitting the eighth-lowest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Running Backs

Week 12

Player	Rushing attempts	Targets	Routes	Red zone opportunities
Brian Robinson	18	3	8	1
Antonio Gibson	9	3	14	1
Jonathan Williams	4	0	0	1

Brian Robinson: Robinson has played at least 48% of the snaps in two of his last three games. Since Week 10 he’s averaging 20.4 touches and 89.4 total yards. Since Week 9, he’s started to hit his stride finishing with at least 2.89 yards after contact in three of four games. Over the last four weeks, he’s 28th in yards after contact per attempt, fifth in missed tackles forced, and 21st in PFF elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Robinson is an RB2 facing a pliable Giants’ run defense. Since Week 7 they are 18th in rushing yards per game, 14th in EPA per rush, and 28th in explosive run rate allowed.

Antonio Gibson: Gibson is a high-end RB3. Since Week 9, he has averaged 15.8 touches and 65.5 total yards as his efficiency numbers have tanked. Over the last four weeks among the same sample of running backs as Robinson (minimum 15 carries), Gibson ranks 41st in yards after contact per attempt, 39th in missed tackles forced (only two), and 49th in PFF’s elusive rating. Gibson has the edge in the passing game, but if last week’s route participation is any measurement, that gap could be closing. Gibson is dealing with a foot issue and has been listed as questionable.

Saquon Barkley: Barkley has had a rough couple of games recently, averaging 16 touches and only 43.5 total yards in Weeks 11-12. Last week I noted that Barkley’s efficiency had begun to crater, but we have reached worrisome levels now. Barkley has seen his yards after contact per attempt drop in each of the last five weeks, with an abysmal 1.18 last week. Over his last seven games, he’s surpassed 2.50 yards after contact per attempt only once. Let’s also be clear this isn’t an offensive line issue. Since Week 5, he ranks 18th in yards before contact per carry, but he’s fourth worst in yards after contact per carry, with only Melvin Gordon, Jamaal Williams, and Devin Singletary finishing worst. Those names should open some eyes. This week doesn’t look any kinder to Barkley. Since Week 7, Washington is 13th in rushing success rate, fourth in rushing yards per game, and sixth in explosive run rate allowed. Barkley is a low-end volume-based RB1.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: Since Week 7, McLaurin is third in target share (31%) behind only Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams, averaging 78.8 receiving yards (minimum 25 targets). Washington’s limited passing volume has led to only 8.2 targets per game. Over that span, he leads all wide receivers with a 53.6% air-yard share. McLaurin has finished as the WR43 and WR54 over the last two weeks with the passing volume tanking, but he carries a high weekly ceiling with a large market share and the talent to take any target to the house. Last week he drew two red zone targets, his first since Week 7. McLaurin is a talented player whose resume has warts because of his quarterback and the team’s offensive concept. McLaurin will match up with the trio of Nick McCloud (71.4% catch rate, 121.4 passer rating), Rodarius Williams (50% catch rate, 25.0 passer rating), and Cordale Flott (72.7% catch rate, 131.3 passer rating) on 73% of his routes as a WR3.

Curtis Samuel: Since Week 7, Samuel has had a 13.9% target share averaging 34.3 receiving yards per game. He has drawn zero end-zone targets over this span. His route run rate has dipped to 51% over his last four games as the team has moved to more multiple tight end sets and a run-centric offense. Samuel is unstartable until this route rate bounces back.

Jahan Dotson: Since his return from injury, Dotson hasn’t seen more than two targets in any game. His snaps have risen over the last two weeks, as he’s averaged 63.5% of the snaps played, but he’s unplayable in this low-volume passing offense. The fourth (or possibly fifth) option in a Heinicke-led passing game is too thin to consider for your fantasy lineups. He’s droppable in redraft.

Darius Slayton: Since Week 7, Slayton has a 21.8% target share averaging 73.6 receiving yards with four games as a WR3 or better (WR19, WR36, WR15, WR21). Across his last five games, he’s ranked 18th in PFF receiving grade and 13th in yards per route (minimum 15 targets). Slayton’s issues have nothing to do with talent or production when he’s gotten opportunities. They revolve around the Giants’ need to run the ball, limiting his target volume, and the fact that he has zero red zone targets since Week 7. Slayton’s touchdown equity in this offense is nil. Unless he breaks off a long play and takes it to the house, he probably isn’t scoring. This renders Slayton a WR3 that will run about 65% of his routes against Kendall Fuller (58.6% catch rate, 90.8 passer rating) and seventh-round rookie Christian Holmes (both targets in coverage secured).

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: Since Week 9, Thomas has had a 16.7% target share (four targets per game) and a 65.2% route run rate. In Week 11, Thomas secured five of his six targets for 65 yards. That outing was his only game since Week 2, where he’s crested 30 receiving yards, so bare with me because this play is scary. Thomas does fall on the lower spectrum of the streaming radar this week. The Giants are an amazing team to target tight ends with. They are 32nd in DVOA, giving up the fourth-highest catch rate, fifth-highest yards per reception, and fourth-most receiving yards per game. Thomas is a TE2 with TE1 upside.

Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -5.5, O/U 44.5
Titans vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

These teams are set in their ways. Both love to run the ball, as Philly is fourth in neutral rushing rate, followed by Tennessee at sixth. The Eagles are an up-tempo squad that ranks ninth in neutral pace, while the Titans are slow at 28th.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill has finished as a QB1 in two of his last three games as he’s playing lights out. Since Week 10, he’s 15th in PFF passing grade, second in yards per attempt, and tied for 14th in big-time throws (minimum 50 dropbacks). Despite his surprising play since returning from injury, Tannehill is only a QB2 this week. The Eagles pass defense, despite showing some cracks the last few weeks, remains a unit I don’t want to attack through the air. Since Week 7, they are fifth in passing yards per game, fifth in EPA per drop back, and seventh in success rate per dropback.

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is still locked in as the QB3 in fantasy. Since Week 8, he’s kept up his high level of play, ranking sixth in PFF passing grade, sixth in yards per attempt, and 12th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). After a short-lived dip in his rushing equity, he’s ripped off 86 yards and 157 yards on the ground since Week 11. Hurts hasn’t finished lower than QB6 since Week 6. Tennessee has given up passing yards by the bunches since Week 7, ranking 27th, but the rest of their peripheral metrics paint a different picture. In the last six weeks, they are third in success rate per dropback, eighth in EPA per drop back and ninth in explosive pass rate allowed. Hurts’ dynamic ability with the ball in his hands raises his floor to a mid QB1, even in tough matchups.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry: The Big Dog has been bottled up without a 100-yard rushing day since Week 9 and has 2.7 yards per carry across his last three games. This is the perfect matchup for him to get back on track. Henry is still the RB3 in fantasy averaging 24.4 touches and 120.6 total yards. He’s eighth in evaded tackles, fifth in breakaway runs, and 25th in yards created per touch. Since Week 7, the Eagles are 19th in rushing yards per game, 30th in EPA per rush, and 17th in explosive run rate allowed. Even with their free-agent signings, teams have still been able to run the ball quite well. Henry is a weekly top-five back.

Miles Sanders: Sanders is coming off a huge game with 24 touches and 160 total yards. It would be wonderful to forecast another banner day for Sanders, but the Titans’ run defense and the Packers’ run defense aren’t even in the same area code. Sanders is the RB18 averaging 17.5 touches and 87.3 total yards. Sanders is 12th in evaded tackles, 25th in juke rate, and 21st in yards per touch. He’s also 12th in breakaway runs. With only a 6.0% target share, Sanders doesn’t have the pass game involvement to bail him out if the rushing yards and touchdowns aren’t there. Since Week 7, Tennessee has been fifth in rushing success rate, second in rushing yards per game, and fifth in explosive run rate allowed. Sanders is an RB2/3.

Wide Receivers

Treylon Burks: Since Burks’ breakout in Week 11, he has a 23% target share while averaging 90.5 receiving yards with a 40% team air yard share. He’s been targeted on 28% of his routes producing a whopping 3.62 yards per route run. Over the last two weeks, he’s finished as the WR12 and WR18 in fantasy, although we need to acknowledge that part of his WR18 finish was due to a fluke touchdown he was gifted after flopping on the ball. Burks is a talented rookie, but he’s in for a long day while running 79% of his routes against James Bradberry (45.7% catch rate, 44.4 passer rating) and Darius Slay (51.9% catch rate, 54.2 passer rating). Burks is a WR3.

Robert Woods: Woods has been dormant most of the season as the WR78 in fantasy. He’s seen a 21.5% target share (5.1 targets per game) this season. Since Tannehill’s return, he has averaged 6.6 targets per game, with at least six targets in each game. Woods looks to be the featured piece of the passing game this week against Philly’s zone coverage. Slay, and Bradberry have operated in zone on 60% of his coverage snaps this season. Woods has seen 72% of his targets against zone this season, ranking 25th in PFF receiving grade and 32nd in yards per route run (tied with D.K. Metcalf, minimum ten zone targets). Woods is a WR4 that will run about 68% of his routes against Bradberry and Slay.

A.J. Brown: Brown has been a stud in Philly as the WR13 in fantasy. He’s sporting a 28.9% target share (eighth), 29.7% target per route run rate (eighth-best), and 38.4% air yard share (eighth). I know I’m burying the lead. Brown will be fired up this week to prove to this franchise that it was a mistake to trade him away. Brown is eighth in PFF receiving grade and 11th in yards per route run, immediately behind Davante Adams (minimum 25 targets). He has been Hurts’ favorite red zone target, ranking ninth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Brown is a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 that will run about 73% of his routes against Kristian Fulton (56.9% catch rate, 98.6 passer rating), Tre Avery (42.9% catch rate, 89.3 passer rating), and Elijah Molden (2021: 71% catch rate, 105.5 passer rating).

DeVonta Smith: Smith is the WR33 in fantasy points per game with a 26.2% target share (15th) and 29.1% air yard share (24th). After a mid-season lull, his target volume has bumped back up, with at least eight targets in four of his last five games. Smith is ranked 25th in PFF receiving grade and 41st in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). While the influx of targets has been nice, we still haven’t seen Smith pop off for a big game since Week 3. He’s only surpassed 60 receiving yards twice since then. Smith is a WR3 that will run about 77% of his routes against the Titans’ trio of perimeter corners.

Tight Ends

There are no fantasy-relevant tight ends in this game.

Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens

BAL -8, O/U 38.5
Broncos vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

It’s a shame that Denver is a dreadful dumpster fire because they are beautiful from a pace and passing rate perspective. The Broncos are sixth in neutral script pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.
Wash. Rinse. Repeat Greg Roman. Baltimore moves in slow motion (32nd in neutral pace) and loves the rushing attack (ninth in neutral rushing rate).

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: The only format you’re remotely considering starting Wilson these days is Superflex. The sad thing is you can make a good case to bench him there as well. Wilson has scored more than 14 fantasy points only twice over his last six games. His best weekly quarterback finish in that stretch is QB15. Wilson is 28th in fantasy points per dropback. He’s outside the top 25 quarterbacks in nearly every completion rate category. Since Week 7, Baltimore has been 15th in success rate per dropback, 12th in EPA per drop back, and 21st in passing yards per game. Wilson is a must-sit in all 1QB formats and a basement-level vomit-inducing QB2 in Superflex.

Lamar Jackson: Last week, Jackson finished as the QB8 with 7.9 yards per attempt. That was his highest fantasy finish since Week 3 and his highest yards per attempt mark since Week 2. Jackson’s day could have been even better if his receivers could stop dropping touchdowns. His rushing equity is alive and well, as he crossed 80 yards on the ground for the second time in three games. Jackson is 12th in PFF passing grade while dealing with the third-highest drop rate in the NFL (minimum 100 dropbacks). Jackson is a low-end QB1 against a stout Denver defense. Since Week 7, they are fourth in success rate per dropback, 11th in EPA per drop back, and 12th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Running Backs

Latavius Murray: Bellcow Latavius Murray. About seven or eight years ago, I would have been jazzed to read that, but in 2022, it’s just sad. Murray played 82% of the snaps last week, turning his 14 touches into 98 total yards. I know you’ll read those numbers and wonder why I’m dismissing Murray so much. Well, 52 yards came on one run that was well blocked that I could have gained at least 15 yards on. Probably not, but you get where I’m going with this. Among 72 rushers with at least 25 carries, Murray ranks 71st in yards after contact per attempt, 56th in breakaway rate, and 59th in PFF’s elusive rating. That 52-yard scamper is his first breakaway run this season across 87 carries. Murray is running like a 32-year-old running back that shouldn’t be on an NFL roster, but it’s Denver, so here we are. Since Week 7, Baltimore has stonewalled running backs ranking top two in rushing yards, EPA per rush, and explosive run rate allowed. Murray is a touchdown or bust volume based RB3/4.

Gus Edwards: Edwards returned last week, playing 50% of snaps with 16 carries, 52 rushing yards, and a touchdown. He handled 84.2% of the rushing work and 85% of the red zone opportunities for the running back room. Edwards sits at 15th in yards after contact per attempt and 13th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Since Week 7, Denver has fallen off some as a rushing defense. Since then, they are 24th in rushing yards per game, 16th in EPA per rush, and 18th in explosive run rate allowed. Edwards is an RB3 that needs a touchdown to pay off.

Kenyan Drake: Edwards’ return limited Drake to three opportunities and 25% of the snaps played. Drake has been sent packing back to the stash-only realm.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton: Sutton’s fantasy season has long been sunk. Wilson’s struggles. Nathaniel Hackett’s ineptitude. Pick a reason. The Denver offense is broken. Sutton is the WR37 in fantasy with a 24.5% target share and 28.9% air yard share. Volume hasn’t been the problem for Sutton, who has at least seven targets, five receptions, and 66 receiving yards in each of his last three games. The issue is as bad as this offense has been, he has zero ceiling without touchdowns along the way. Sutton hasn’t scored since Week 4, which happens to be his only time this season. Over the last three games, he’s been a high-floor WR3, finishing as the WR32, WR26, and WR30. Sutton is a WR3 that will run about 86% of his routes against Marcus Peters (69.2% catch rate, 120.0 passer rating) and Brandon Stephens (61% catch rate, 97.9 passer rating).

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy was a DNP on Wednesday and Thursday before sneaking in a limited session on Friday. Jeudy seems closer to doubtful than questionable. He’s the WR42 in fantasy this season with an 18.4% target share, 22.0% air yard share, and 1.88 yards per route run (39th). He’s finished as a top 20 wide receiver in three of his last five games played. Jeudy is best viewed as a volatile WR3 if active.

BAL WRs: The Ravens’ wide receiver group is a weekly fantasy sinkhole. DeSean Jackson isn’t a full-time player. Demarcus Robinson and Devin Duvernay‘s rollercoaster stat lines can’t be trusted at this point in the fantasy season. Shy away from all of them, as two points in your fantasy lineup in Week 13 could be crippling for your playoff hopes.

Tight Ends

Greg Dulcich: Dulcich’s stat lines have sunk like the Titanic as this entire offense prays for the Week 18 iceberg to end this dreadful Broncos’ season. Dulcich’s peripherals still look fine, as he has a 14.9% target share, 68.3% route run rate, and 1.43 yards per route run. The problem is that the meat of those statistics came in his first three games. He hasn’t crossed the 40-yard receiving threshold since Week 8. Dulcich is a TE2 with a favorable matchup. Baltimore has allowed the sixth-highest catch rate and eighth-most touchdowns (tied) to tight ends.

Mark Andrews: Andrews’ stat line would have looked better last week if he hadn’t dropped an easy touchdown. Regardless, Andrews is a top-three tight end weekly. He is top-three among tight ends in target share, target rate per route run, deep targets, and red zone targets. You’re playing him weekly regardless of the matchup if you have Andrews. Denver is eighth in DVOA, holding tight ends to the 12th-lowest catch rate and only three receiving touchdowns.

NFL

MLB

NBA

NHL

The Primer: Week 13 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants

Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens

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