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It’s funny how time has a way of changing your perceptions. Even five years ago, one of my biggest pet peeves was the immediate flood of Christmas decor by Walmart and other stores as soon as Halloween ended. Whether this was in subconscious defense of my love of food and football on Thanksgiving or simply to act as Scrooge, I couldn’t tell you. Fast forward to 2022, and I feel like the Christmas season can’t come soon enough. I won’t say that I was rocking out to Christmas songs while frying the turkey, but I was definitely begging my wife to put up our tree 2-3 weeks before Thanksgiving. This change of heart could be related to my love of the Christmas season. It could also be that I’m turning over a new leaf by being more proactive and less of a procrastinator.

In the spirit of staying ahead of the curve, let’s discuss a looming monster on the horizon.

Week 14 Byemageddon.

In Week 14, the Falcons, Bears, Packers, Colts, Saints, and Commanders are all on bye. With fantasy teams making final pushes for playoff spots, I don’t want you scrambling to fill starting roster spots at the last second.

So here’s an early Christmas present. One player at each position that’s less than 50% rostered (per Yahoo) that you can plug into your starting roster in a Week 14 pinch.

• QB: Ryan Tannehill vs. JAC – Jacksonville has surrendered the ninth-most passing yards and tenth-most passing touchdowns to QBs.
• RB: Kenneth Gainwell vs. NYG – NYG has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game to backs.
• WR: D.J. Chark vs. MIN – MIN has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wideouts.
• TE: Hunter Henry vs. ARI – It’s the Cardinals. If you’ve been reading the Primer. You already know.

Now onto Week 13 and the Primer.

Check out all of our weekly fantasy football content

PIT vs. ATL | GB vs. CHI | JAC vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIN | WAS vs. NYG | TEN vs. PHI | DEN vs. BAL | CLE vs. HOU | SEA vs. LAR | MIA vs. SF | KC vs. CIN | LAC vs. LV | IND vs. DAL | NO vs. TB | BUF vs. NE

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• ATL -1.5, O/U 42
• Steelers vs. Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 7, the Falcons haven’t changed the formula at all. They are 24th in neutral pace and second in neutral rushing rate. While Atlanta is sticking to their priors, the Steelers are not. They have picked things up and are passing even more. Over their last four games, they are eighth in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Kenny Pickett: Pickett is stuck in perennial QB2 purgatory. Since Week 10, his play has improved slightly as he ranks 19th in PFF passing grade, 23rd in adjusted completion rate, and 14th in big-time throw rate, but he’s only managed QB12, QB16, and QB25 weekly finishes. Luckily for Pickett, the Falcons remain a soft matchup for quarterbacks. Since Week 7, they are 19th in passing yards per game, 26th in EPA per dropback, and 15th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Marcus Mariota: Mariota’s passing shortcomings have proven too much for his rushing to make up for. Despite rushing for at least 24 yards in each of his last four games (at least 43 yards in two games), Mariota hasn’t finished as a QB1 since Week 8. Mariota hasn’t eclipsed 7.1 yards per attempt or 200 passing yards since Week 8. He’s ranked 25th in PFF passing grade and 41st in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). The Steelers should allow Mariota to finish with a decent stat line through the air. Since Week 7, they are 31st in passing yards per game, 29th in EPA per drop back, and 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed. Without Kyle Pitts and with Atlanta refusing to feature London, Mariota’s passing numbers are likely muted despite the glorious matchup. Mariota is a QB2.

Running Backs

Najee Harris: Harris didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday before sneaking in a limited practice on Friday. He’s stated he’s good to go, but I’m still watching the wire for injury reports up to kickoff Sunday. Harris could play this week, but my spider sense is tingling that this is a smoke show by Pittsburgh. If you have Warren or another contingency plan, keep it locked in the chamber, ready to go. I don’t want to scramble at the last minute if he’s inactive come Sunday. In Weeks 1-11, Harris averaged 17.6 touches and 78.8 total yards. Harris is 47th in yards after contact per attempt and 37th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). He hasn’t mustered a 100-yard rushing performance this year. Since Week 7, Atlanta is 29th in rushing yards per game, 27th in EPA per rush, and 23rd in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. If Harris plays, he’s a risky RB2.

Jaylen Warren: The injury report goofiness continues as Warren practiced all week in full, but he has been listed as questionable for Week 13. Warren has been sidelined with a hamstring injury. In Warren’s last two full games played, he averaged 10.5 touches and 76 total yards. Warren has been lightning in a bottle whenever he has been given opportunities. He’s 11th in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 25 carries) and first in PFF’s elusive rating. If Harris is out, fire up Warren as an RB2 with bellcow usage & 20 touch upside. If Harris is active, Warren is a decent flex play.

Week 12

Cordarrelle Patterson: With Pitts out, Patterson was pressed into more work. Patterson played 58% of the snaps, his highest mark since Week 3. He also gobbled up all of the routes which he had been splitting with Allgeier with a 24% target share and 38% target per route rate. Patterson finished with 14 touches and 71 total yards and saw the lion’s share of the red zone work. Patterson ranks 34th in yards after contact per attempt and 20th in breakaway rate (minimum 25 carries). Patterson faces an uphill climb this week as an RB2 on early downs. Since Week 7, Pittsburgh is eighth in rushing success rate, sixth in EPA per rush, and sixth in explosive run rate allowed. With his growing pass-game role, he should find success through the air. The Steelers are 25th in DVOA against receiving backs, with the tenth-highest yards per reception and second-most receiving touchdowns allowed.

Tyler Allgeier: After seeing his snap count increase in three straight weeks, Allegier’s usage dipped with only 39% of the snaps played and his routes cut to zero. He still contributed on early downs helping Patterson shoulder the load with 11 carries for 54 yards. Allegier’s efficiency has been creeping up throughout the season, as he’s currently 28th in yards after contact per attempt and PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). With only minimal usage inside the 20, no pass game upside, and a difficult matchup on the ground, Allgeier is an RB3/4.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Since Chase Claypool‘s departure, Johnson has a 19.4% target share, 28.6% end zone target share, and 28.7% air yard share. Johnson is still searching for his first touchdown and top-20 wide receiver finish of the season. Johnson has been incredibly inefficient with his volume this year. He’s eighth in targets and 21st in target share but ranks 95th in fantasy points per target, 80th in yards per route run, and 77th in fantasy points per route run. These are laughably bad numbers. The team has tried forcing volume down his throat in high-leverage situations as well as he ranks 18th in deep targets and ninth in red zone targets. Nothing has worked. Could he pop off with a big game in Week 13? Sure, he’s WELL past due for one. Is it something you should count on in a pivotal week in fantasy? No. Johnson is a WR3/4 that will run about 85% of his routes against A.J. Terrell (65.9% catch rate, 126.7 passer rating) and Darren Hall (73.1% catch rate, 140.4 passer rating).

George Pickens: Since Week 9, Pickens has an 18.3% target share, 33.1% air yard share, and 1.64 yards per route run (leads the team in the last three games). Pickens has concluded the week as a WR3 or better in two of his last three games (WR26, WR11). Pickens has only one red zone target over the last three games, so he’s been dependent upon big plays and some random rushing volume (two carries, 23 yards, one touchdown) to boost his fantasy output. Pickens is a WR3 with WR2 upside that will run about 87% of his routes against Terrell and Hall.

Drake London: In his first full game without Kyle Pitts, London only saw a 16% target share, securing two of his four targets for 29 yards. Olamide Zaccheaus led the Falcons with a 32% target share (eight targets) and 91 receiving yards. My frustration with Arthur Smith and his malpractice has grown to the point where I’m not even angry anymore. I’m just disappointed. London is 21st in PFF receiving grade and 54th in yards per route run, but please, by all means, feed Zaccheaus targets. London still leads all the Falcons’ wide receivers with 11 red zone targets. London is a WR4 until Smith decides to feed his best player. London will run about 83% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (53.3% catch rate, 77.3 passer rating) and James Pierre (52.9% catch rate, 58.5 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Without Claypool, Freiermuth has been a volume monster and seen the biggest uptick in the Steelers’ passing attack. Sans Claypool, he has a 24.7% target share averaging 51.3 receiving yards per game with 1.6 yards per route run. Despite only one touchdown this season, he’s seen a recent boom in his red zone usage with four targets inside the 20 yards line in his last three games. Freiermuth is fourth in PFF receiving grade and fifth in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). The Falcons have given up the 13th-highest catch rate and ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Freiermuth is a strong TE1 with weekly usage to creep into the top five.

PIT vs. ATL | GB vs. CHI | JAC vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIN | WAS vs. NYG | TEN vs. PHI | DEN vs. BAL | CLE vs. HOU | SEA vs. LAR | MIA vs. SF | KC vs. CIN | LAC vs. LV | IND vs. DAL | NO vs. TB | BUF vs. NE

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

• GB -2.5, O/U 42.5
• Packers vs. Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Bears are a known commodity. They are 23rd in neutral pace and first in neutral rushing rate.
• Over their last five games, the Packers are still one of the slowest teams in the NFL (31st in neutral pace), but their neutral passing rate has dipped to 19th.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers: Aaron Rodgers is expected to play this week after leaving last week’s game early (ribs). Rodgers is ninth in PFF passing grade, 16th in adjusted completion rate, and 24th in yards per attempt as the QB22 in fantasy. Rodgers could log only his third QB1 finish of the season this week against a Bears secondary that has seen the bottom fall out. Since Week 7, Chicago has been 31st in success rate per dropback, 32nd in passing yards per game, and 31st in explosive pass rate allowed.

Justin Fields: Fields practiced in full on Thursday and Friday. He’ll be under center this week for the Bears. Fields is the QB6 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 7, he’s 15th in big-time throw rate and 19th in yards per attempt. Fields is first in fantasy points per dropback, first in rushing yards, and second in rushing touchdowns. Green Bay is 21st in success rate per dropback, 21st in EPA per drop back, and 15th in passing yards per game. Fields returns to his top-five status among fantasy quarterbacks.

Running Backs

Weeks 11-12

Aaron Jones: Jones still owns the backfield averaging 16.5 touches and 79.5 total yards over their last two games. He’s played at least 66% of the snaps with a bump in his target share (19%) since Week 11. Jones isn’t slowing down as the season has progressed, ranking 24th in yards after contact per attempt, 15th in PFF’s elusive rating, and 16th in yards per route run. Jones ripped the Bears apart earlier this season with 18 touches and 170 total yards, and he’s poised to do it again. Since Week 7, Chicago is 15th in rushing success rate, 15th in rushing yards per game, and 25th in explosive run rate allowed. Jones is an RB1.

A.J. Dillon: Dillon was more efficient with his work last week, with 88 total yards, but the overall usage didn’t change. He still played 43% of the snaps, saw 11 touches, and ceded red zone work to Jones. With Jones handling most of the pass game work, Dillon has to get it done on the ground weekly to produce for fantasy. Last week’s touchdown was his first since Week 1. Dillon is tenth in juke rate and evaded tackles. With the plus rushing matchup incoming, he’s an RB3 with RB2 upside if he gets into the end zone.

David Montgomery: Montgomery saw Darrynton Evans cut into his work some last week with ten touches (67 total yards), and 32% of the snaps played, but Montgomery still led the way with 17 touches and 113 total yards. Montgomery is poised for some touchdown regression, with only one score over his last five games despite 14 red zone opportunities. Montgomery rattled off 122 rushing yards in Week 2 against this defense, and he’s primed for a repeat performance this week. Montgomery is seventh in missed tackles forced and 14th in PFF’s elusive rating. Since Week 7, Green Bay has been 24th in rushing success rate, 30th in rushing yards per game, and 26th in explosive run rate allowed. They have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game this season to running backs. Montgomery is a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside.

Wide Receivers

Allen Lazard: Lazard is the WR28 with a 21.1% target share and 32.2% air yard share. Lazard is tenth in deep targets, and 12th in red zone looks among wide receivers. He has little to show for it over the last three games, with Christian Watson breaking out. Since Week 10, he has had one finish inside the top 40 (WR36) fantasy wide receivers. In Lazard’s defense, having Trevon Diggs in your face and then a date with Darius Slay and James Bradberry isn’t easy by any stretch. Lazard drew 11 targets against Tennessee, where he and Rodgers were consistently on different pages. Lazard is 29th in PFF receiving grade and ranked 44th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). This is a fantastic bounce-back spot. Lazard is a WR2/3 who will run about 55% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (62.5% catch rate, 102.7 passer rating) and Kindle Vildor (66.7% catch rate, 112.0 passer rating).

Christian Watson: Rejoice. Sing. Be merry! Christian Watson SZN is here. Since Week 10, Watson has had a 24.4% target share, 50% endzone target share, and 44.8% air yard share. Over his last three games, he’s finished as the WR3, WR8, and WR10 in fantasy. Yes, his touchdown-scoring rate is insane and won’t last (six touchdowns across the last three games), but his talent is real. Watson ranks eighth in yards per route run, immediately behind CeeDee Lamb (minimum 25 targets). Watson is a WR2/3 that will run about 66% of his routes against Johnson and Vildor. At this point, it’s impossible to take him out of your lineups.

Randall Cobb: Since his return in Week 11, Cobb has a 15.9% target share, 58% route run rate, 2.30 yards per route run, and a 25% target per route run rate. Cobb isn’t a full-time player, but when he’s on the field, he’s drawing targets at a high rate, and he’s been quietly awesome this season. Cobb is 16th in PFF receiving grade and 19th in yards per route run, so take the age and name out of the equation. His lack of a full-time role is concerning, but when on the field, look for him to draw targets and be used in high-leverage situations. Cobb has five red zone targets over his last three full games played. He’s a decent WR5/flex in a pinch. He’ll run about 82% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (83.3% catch rate, 103.9 passer rating).

Chase Claypool: With Darnell Mooney out for the remainder of the season, Claypool assumes the number wide receiver throne. Last week Claypool handled a 20.8% target share, 50% end zone target share, 50.6% air yard share, and 75% route run rate. No other Bears wide receiver eclipsed a 60% route run rate as Chicago deployed a committee of bodies behind him. Claypool has seen a red zone target in back-to-back games. Claypool is a WR4 that will run about 81% of his routes against Jaire Alexander (55.8% catch rate, 68.2 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (70.5% catch rate, 104.5 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan is a TE2. Over his last five games, he has an 11.8% target share and 53.8% route run rate. Tonyan has seen his usage fluctuate weekly, which has been frustrating if you’ve looked at him as a streaming option previously. Thankfully he’s not popping on the streaming radar this week against a defense that’s held tight ends to the tenth-lowest yards per reception and sixth-lowest receiving yards per game.

Cole Kmet: Since Kmet awoke from his season-long slumber (Week 8), he has a 22.1% target share (five targets per game) with a 33.3% end zone target share and 67.3% route run rate. Since Week 8, he has been ninth in PFF receiving grade, 17th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets), and has five of his six red zone targets for the season. Kmet is a low-end TE1/high-end TE2. Green Bay has shut down tight ends allowing the lowest receiving yards per game and fourth-lowest yards per reception. Kmet had only one target and zero receiving yards the last time these teams met. Last year he finished as the TE19 and TE28 in his two games against the Packers.

PIT vs. ATL | GB vs. CHI | JAC vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIN | WAS vs. NYG | TEN vs. PHI | DEN vs. BAL | CLE vs. HOU | SEA vs. LAR | MIA vs. SF | KC vs. CIN | LAC vs. LV | IND vs. DAL | NO vs. TB | BUF vs. NE

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -1, O/U 52
• Jaguars vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This is the sneaky pace-up game of the week. Since Week 7, the Jaguars are sixth in neutral pace while the Lions have sped up to tenth. Jacksonville has also increased their neutral passing rate over their last five games and ranks 13th. Detroit still operates a balanced attack, ranking 21st in neutral passing rate (since Week 7).

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has been on fire. Over his last six games, he’s finished as a QB1 five times and is the QB11 in fantasy points per game over that stretch. Since Week 9, he’s second in PFF passing grade, tenth in yards per attempt, and second in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Lawrence is a strong QB1 against a weak Lions secondary. Since Week 7, Detroit is 30th in passing yards per game, 20th in EPA per drop back, and 31st in explosive pass rate. Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.

Jared Goff: Goff remains a QB2 as his streak of QB2 finishes remains intact. Goff hasn’t cracked the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks since Week 4. It doesn’t help Goff that since Week 7, Detroit is tenth in red zone rushing rate, so his touchdown upside is sketchy at best. Goff is 17th in fantasy points per dropback, 13th in yards per attempt, and 23rd in true completion rate. Jacksonville offers Goff a chance to break the curse. Since Week 7, they have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have also ranked 31st in EPA per dropback and 28th in yards per attempt.

Running Backs

Jaguars’ HC Doug Pederson told reporters that RB Travis Etienne is “good to go” Sunday vs. the Lions.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 2, 2022

Travis Etienne: Doug Pederson has stated Etienne is ready to rock. Etienne was limited in practice all week. If he’s active you’re firing him up as an RB2. Even if Etienne concedes a few touches to Hasty, he’ll still be the lead and presumably goal line back. In Weeks 7-10, Etienne averaged 21.6 touches and 120 total yards. Etienne is the RB23 in fantasy this season. He’s 19th in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in breakaway rate, and third in PFF’s elusive rating. Since Week 9 Detroit is 16th in rushing success rate, 19th in rushing yards per game, and 13th in explosive run rate allowed.

JaMycal Hasty: Last week’s performance warmed my truther heart. I’m an old-school JaMycal Hasty truther, so Week 12 made me quite happy. Hasty took over for the injured Etienne playing 78% of the snaps with 17 touches and 95 total yards. Hasty’s 2.16 yards after contact per attempt (70th) is nothing to write home about, but he’s also 18th in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Hasty could eat into Etienne’s work this week. He’s an RB3/flex.

Jamaal Williams: Since Week 10, the roles of these Lions running backs have been clearly defined. Williams is the early down grinder and red zone back with zero usage in the passing game. Over the last three games, Williams has averaged 17 carries and 63 rushing yards. He hasn’t drawn a target since Week 8. Williams is the RB15 in fantasy on the strength of his league-leading 41 red zone touches and 13 total touchdowns. He continues to plod along with his carries, ranking 35th in evaded tackles, 50th in juke rate, and 55th in yards created per touch. Williams remains a low-end RB2 with another plus rushing matchup this week. Since Week 7, Jacksonville is 27th in rushing success rate, 28th in rushing yards per game, and 29th in explosive run rate allowed.

D’Andre Swift: In his last three games played, Swift has averaged eight touches and 29 total yards while playing 31-34% of the snaps. Touchdown equity has kept Swift afloat, with 36.6% of his opportunities in this span coming in the red zone. He’s scored touchdowns in two of his last three games and almost did so again in Week 12. Last week Swift’s route run rate (35%) was nearly in line with his two previous games (30%), but his target share (22.9%) and target per route run rate (57%) spiked. With his playing time almost unchanged, this is likely a blip on the radar with an outlier target per route rate number. To Swift’s credit, he posted his first missed tackles forced (two) since Week 8. His yards after contact per attempt mark (3.20) against Buffalo was his highest since Week 1. These small nuggets suggest maybe Swift is getting healthier, so we need to monitor his usage closely, but for this week, it’s difficult to forecast any changes. Swift remains a touchdown-dependent RB3 for the time being.

Wide Receivers

Christian Kirk: Kirk is headed for a huge Week 12. He’s the WR14 in fantasy with a 24.5% target share (22nd) and 27.7% air yard share (30th). Kirk is fifth among wide receivers in red zone targets. Kirk ranks 26th in PFF receiving grade and 28th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). He faces a second that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers since Week 6. Kirk is a WR1/2 that will run about 72% of his routes against Will Harris (81.4% catch rate, 127.9 passer rating).

BETTLE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Bettle. For Week 13, Christian Kirk is our Bettle Matchup of the Week.

Zay Jones: Ok, Zay Jones. I apologize for laughing about the contract that Jacksonville gave you in the off-season. While it still might be a bit rich, he earned every penny last week with a 37.8% target share hauling in 11 grabs and 145 receiving yards. Jones is now the WR29 in fantasy with a 22.7% target share (26th), and eight red zone looks (30th). He’s now ranked 34th in PFF receiving grades and 54th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Jones is a WR3/4 that will run about 66% of his routes against Mike Hughes (67.5% catch rate, 112.2 passer rating) and Amani Oruwariye (75.6% catch rate, 136.0 passer rating).

Marvin Jones: It’s revenge game time. Seriously though, Marvin Jones has only two weeks as a WR3 or better over the last seven games. Marvin Jones has a 15.2% target share and 26.8% air yard share. Since Week 7, Marvin Jones has shared the downfield role with Kirk, who is tied for the team lead in deep targets (seven) over that period. Zay Jones is nipping at their heels over that span with six. He’s a WR5/6 that’s surpassed 60 receiving yards once this season. He’ll run about 85% of his routes against Huges and Oruwariye.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is a weekly WR1. He’s the WR10 in fantasy with a 28.5% target share (ninth) and 23.4% air yard share (47th). St. Brown is first among wide receivers in target per route run rate. He’s a volume machine, ranking seventh in receptions and eighth in YAC. St. Brown should have no issues chewing up a Jacksonville defense that’s allowed the fifth-most YAC and second-most missed tackles. St. Brown will run about 52% of his routes against Rayshawn Jenkins (77.7% catch rate, 97.7 passer rating). Since Week 6, Jacksonville has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

D.J. Chark: After being eased back in during his first game, Chark was a full-time player again in Week 12 with a 14.3% target share and 79.5% route run rate. Chark played the downfield role with a 15.8 aDOT. Chark busted out the gate in Week 1 (WR22) and then proceeded to flop in the two games before getting injured and missing time. Chark is a fine WR5/flex dart throw in a high total game that could easily turn into a shoot-out. His deep role could come in handy against a secondary that ranks seventh in deep passing yards and fourth in deep passing touchdowns allowed.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram: Engram arrives on the streamer radar again as a low-end TE1. He’s managed four top-12 fantasy finishes this year and could compile a fifth in Week 13. Engram has a 14.0% target share and 72% route participation (14th). His deep role is quite nice, as he’s ranked fifth in deep targets, but he’s only drawn four red zone targets (33rd). The Lions have allowed the third-most receiving touchdowns (tied), seventh-highest yards per reception, and eighth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.

PIT vs. ATL | GB vs. CHI | JAC vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIN | WAS vs. NYG | TEN vs. PHI | DEN vs. BAL | CLE vs. HOU | SEA vs. LAR | MIA vs. SF | KC vs. CIN | LAC vs. LV | IND vs. DAL | NO vs. TB | BUF vs. NE