In a surprising turn of events, Ka’imi Fairbairn finished the week as the top kicker, with 16 fantasy points against the Dallas Cowboys, a team that was picked by Vegas as 16-point favorites in the game. It was only the second time this season in which the top kicker of the week entered as a double-digit dog, with Joey Slye of the Commanders pulling off the feat against the Eagles in Week 10.

Typically it is a wise play to avoid starting a kicker who is projected to be on the short end of a lopsided game, especially when it is a team with one victory like the Texans playing against a surging Cowboys team that was in search of its 10th win on the year. 

Yet in keeping with the unpredictable nature of the game, the Vegas odds makers got this one dead wrong, and Fairbairn proved to be a week-winner for the 2% of managers who started him (I’m sure most of those are dormant leagues).

Spreads and over/unders, assuming the sharps in Vegas are correct, provide extra info on who to target as a streaming option. A player with a low K Score playing in a game where they are favored increases the probability of success. While avoiding a player with a high K Score and who is an underdog by more than 6 points is typically someone to avoid. That is unless Vegas is wrong, and the line is blown out of the water like what was the case in Dallas on Sunday. 

Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice

Week 14 Stud Performances from widely available kickers 

Riley Patterson (JAC) @ Tennessee: 2% roster percentage on Yahoo

Like Fairbairn, Patterson was started in just 2% of leagues while also an underdog. Yet unlike Fairbairn, the Jags we just 3.5 dogs and played lights out against the Titans. While I am hesitant to recommend Patterson this week at home against the Cowboys, the Jags are playing well on offense and the Cowboys could be in for a close game this week in Jacksonville.  

Eddy Pineiro (CAR) @ Seattle: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo

If you had the Panthers beating the Seahawks 30-24 this past week, give yourself a pat on the back. Vegas had the Panthers as 4.5-point dogs, and Carolina managed just 38 combined points in their previous three games. 

While I do have him ranked a bit higher than consensus in what could be a low-scoring game at home against Pittsburgh, I would not feel comfortable starting him in the fantasy playoffs.  

Week 14 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers

Evan McPherson (CIN) @ Cleveland: 94% roster percentage on Yahoo

The Bengals won this game and Joey B finally got the monkey off his back, but the fantasy goodness McPherson owners hoped for did not materialize. I do have him as a top 10 play this week on the road against Tampa Bay, in a game in which the Bengals are road favorites. 

Kicker Rankings

*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Chiefs rank 5th in red zone efficiency; therefore Harrison Butker has an RZ EFF score of 27. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.

**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.

Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.

Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 15.

Joey Slye (WAS) vs. New York: 2% roster percentage on Yahoo

I am going out a bit on a limb here with Slye, but there is some data that makes me think he is a dark horse candidate this week to be a top-10 play. First, he is 6th in average scoring over the past five weeks. Second, he is a home favorite in a low-scoring game and possesses a solid K Score of 40. And lastly, the Giants rank 6th in points allowed to kickers on the year. 

Cade York (CLE) vs. Baltimore: 5% roster percentage on Yahoo

York has been anything but consistent this season and boasts just three games of over 10 fantasy points. However, he does have a K Score of 39 and is playing in what could be a low-scoring AFC North battle with the Ravens. York scored 9 points against the Ravens back in Week 7. I think a similar performance is in line here. 

Prediction Review

Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.

Ryan Succop (TB) @ San Francisco: 40% roster percentage on Yahoo

ECR Rank: 11

My Rank: 6

Week 14 Finish: 28

Tom Brady and the Bucs were destroyed by the 49ers and rookie Brock Purdy, despite the Bucs being just 3-point underdogs. I was surprised both by how bad the Bucs played on offense and how well Mr. Irrelevant took apart the Tampa defense. 

Jason Sanders (MIA) @ LA Chargers: 16% roster percentage on Yahoo

ECR Rank: 12

My Rank: 8

Week 14 Finish: T14

Seven points for a kicker ranked outside the top 10 is not a bad performance in most weeks. However, 12 players topped double digits this week, making Sanders’ day a bit underwhelming.

Waiver Wired

Top Add

Cameron Dicker (LAC) vs. Tennessee: 48% roster percentage on Yahoo

A game at home indoors in which he has a K Score of 31 and which he is a home favorite makes Dicker the Kicker an attractive add this week. 

Other players to consider:

Jason Myers (SEA) vs. San Francisco: 61% roster percentage on Yahoo

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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFKickerGuy.