Fantasy Football Heat Index: Tyler Allgeier, Latavius Murray, Dawson Knox (2022)

Welcome to The Heat Index!

For those unfamiliar with the column, every Monday during the NFL season, we dig into the players whose performances through Sunday jumped out to us the most. Along with their stats (half-point PPR scoring) and positional rank for the week, we’ll rank their rest-of-season prospects on a scale of ? to ?????. Most teams still playing are into their fantasy playoffs now; if you’re among them, congratulations! As the fantasy season is winding down, the indexes below will focus on whether the players who shined in Week 15 may be viable in Weeks 16-17.

Quarterback

Zach Wilson (QB – NYJ)

Stat-line: 18 of 35 passing for 317 yards and two TDs and an INT; seven yards rushing
QB Rank: 9

Analysis: Superstars comprised most of the QB leaderboard in Week 15, including Trevor Lawrence, who I completely whiffed on last week when I gave him only one ?. Checking in towards the bottom of the Top 10 was the beleaguered Zach Wilson, who replaced the injured Mike White admirably. Wilson’s completion % wasn’t great, but he had a few big plays down the field. White’s injury may sideline him for more than just this week, especially since they play again on Thursday. Is Wilson a potential deep league option in Weeks 16 and 17? The schedule is good with matchups against the Jaguars and Seahawks, but Wilson’s prior history has to count for something. In two-QB / Superflex leagues, he’s definitely on the radar, but he’s probably not worth the risk in standard formats unless your league is extremely deep.

Heat Index: ??

Wide Receiver

K.J. Osborn (WR – MIN)

Stat-line: Ten catches off 16 targets for 157 yards and a TD
WR Rank: 2

Analysis: Osborn set career highs in catches and yards in the Vikings’ furious come-from-behind victory on Saturday. He was on the field almost as much as Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, as has been the case most of the season. However, Kirk Cousins threw a season-high 54 passes, which is undoubtedly not their preference, and Osborn has only reached double-digit fantasy points three times this year. The schedule isn’t ideal either, with matchups against the Giants and Packers. As a result, Osborn’s Week 15 feels more like an anomaly than a trend. He’s a good player, but the track record needs to be longer to trot him out for a playoff game.

Heat Index: ?

Noah Brown (WR – DAL)

Stat-line: Six receptions off nine targets for 49 yards with two TDs
WR Rank: 6

Analysis: Noah Brown is similar to Osborn in that he’s the third receiver on his team that had a big Week 15. Brown got off to a good start this season, but once Michael Gallup returned from injury, he’s struggled to make an impact until Sunday. Next week, Dallas faces Philadelphia, making Brown unusable in virtually every league. If your team makes it to Week 17, though, the Cowboys face the Titans and their 32nd-ranked pass defense. Brown would still be a dart throw play in super deep leagues, but at least the matchup would be in your favor.

Heat Index: ??

Running Back

Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL)

Stat-line: 17 carries for 139 yards and a TD; one reception for -3 yards; a two-point conversion
RB Rank: 7

Analysis: In the first career start for rookie Desmond Ridder, it was fellow rookie Allgeier who drove the Falcons’ offense. Allgeier averaged. 8.2 yards per carry (YPC), buoyed by a 43-yard scamper. He was far more effective than Cordarrelle Patterson, who had nearly as many touches but managed only 3.7 YPC. Despite losing for the fifth time in their last six games, the Falcons are still in contention for a playoff spot thanks to playing in the putrid NFC South. The Falcons might want to give him more touches if Sunday was any indication. Unfortunately, next week’s matchup against the Ravens is tough, although Nick Chubb rushed for 99 yards against them on Sunday. However, in Week 17, the Falcons face the Cardinals, who just gave up 130 yards to the next player on the index. Allgeier should be a low-end flex next week and a borderline RB2 in Week 17.

Heat Index: ???

Latavius Murray (RB – DEN)

Stat-line: 24 carries for 130 yards and a TD; one reception for 12 yards
RB Rank: 8

Analysis: The 32-year-old Murray flashed back on Sunday, toting the rock 24 times for his most carries since 2019. With Russell Wilson sidelined, he put the team on his back down the stretch to secure the victory for the Broncos. What a weird year it’s been for Denver. Murray should also continue to see a fairly heavy workload over the next two weeks, but he’ll face tougher run defenses in the Rams and Chiefs. The Rams’ matchup could work out for him as it figures to be a slow-paced low-scoring game. Against the Chiefs, though, the Broncos will likely need to throw often, making Murray a risky start.

Heat Index: ???

Tight End

Dawson Knox (TE – BUF)

Stat-line: Six receptions off eight targets for 98 yards and a TD
TE Rank: 3

Analysis: Knox got off to a slow start this season after a stellar 2001 in which he finished as TE8. He’s picked up lately, though, with 10 catches and two TDs over the last two weeks. The Bills play two more cold-weather games in Chicago and Cincinnati in Weeks 16 and 17, and thus, it’s possible Josh Allen will take fewer shots down the field – especially if the wind is a factor. This could lead to more targets for Knox, though his usage has been inconsistent this year. Nevertheless, Knox should be in the fantasy mix in leagues with 12 or more teams, given the lack of depth at the position.

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.