Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 17 (2022)

The game of fantasy football has become more complex over the past several years. While the game itself hasn’t changed much, the way to analyze stats and draw conclusions has become much more in-depth with the development of advanced stats.

One of those advanced stats is air yards. Why are air yards important? Because it helps differentiate the value of targets. Quick passes like screens and slants have a different value than downfield routes. Depending on your league’s scoring, it will make a difference in what you want from a fantasy player.

Receiving yards is a basic yet important stat for fantasy football players. Having receivers who catch plenty of short targets is valuable in PPR scoring. However, a receiver with consistent big-play ability downfield is equally valuable.

Air yards are not the golden ticket to winning your fantasy league. However, they are useful tools to help you analyze the game. Let’s look at the top 10 performers at each position and the five top underperformers.

Stats via FantasyPros

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The Top 10 Quarterbacks

No Jalen Hurts, no problem for the Eagles. Minshew made his first start this season last week. While the team didn’t get the win, the former Washington State star finished first in air yards despite ending the week seventh in pass attempts with 40. Furthermore, his 6.5 aDOT was the third-highest last week and the highest among quarterbacks with 26 or more pass attempts. Meanwhile, Hurts has averaged 146.1 air yards per game and a 4.8 aDOT this season. If the star quarterback can’t play this week, Minshew is a solid replacement option for the team and fantasy players.

The matchup between the Eagles and Cowboys was arguably the best game of Week 16. Not only did Minshew play well, but so did Prescott. The star quarterback had his best performance of the year last week, scoring 28 fantasy points and ending Week 16 as the QB1. Furthermore, he has been on fire the past two weeks, totaling 603 passing yards (379 air yards), six touchdowns, and 48.2 fantasy points. Over the first eight games this season, Prescott averaged only 141.6 air yards per contest. With an excellent matchup on Thursday night against the Tennessee Titans, fantasy players should be excited to start Prescott in their championship game.

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

Fantasy players must be excited after seeing how Minshew played against the Cowboys last week. Not only did he end the week as the QB7, but he produced two top-20 wide receivers in Smith and A.J. Brown. Smith had an excellent performance, with eight receptions for 113 yards (94.7% of which were air yards). Meanwhile, Brown finished 12th in air yards among wide receivers with 74. Both wide receivers had an 8.9 aDOT or better. Smith has a 5.1 aDOT with Hurts under center this season, while Brown has a 6.5 aDOT by comparison. If Minshew has to start in Week 17, fantasy players can play both Philadelphia receivers with confidence.

The Denver offense has been a mess this season. However, the one bright spot is Jeudy. The third-year receiver has played well lately. Over the past three weeks, Jeudy has been the WR3, averaging 18.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he has averaged 52 air yards per game and a 5.8 aDOT over the past three weeks. By comparison, Jeudy averaged only 29.6 air yards and 8.7 fantasy points per game with a 5.0 aDOT over his first 10 contests this year. If he keeps up his strong play over the last two weeks of the season, Jeudy will be a prime dynasty trade target in the offseason.

The Top 10 Tight Ends

Fantasy players with Kittle on their roster likely made the championship game. The star tight end has been on fire lately. Over the past two weeks, he has been the TE1, averaging 25.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. During that span, Kittle has 16 receptions on 18 targets for 213 receiving yards (48.8% were air yards) and four touchdowns with an 8.0 aDOT. He is second among tight ends in receiving yards and air yards during that span despite being fifth in targets. By comparison, Kittle averaged 5.4 targets and 22.6 air yards per game with a 4.2 aDOT over his first 11 contests this year. More importantly, the star tight end has an excellent matchup in Week 17 against the Las Vegas Raiders.

After spending the first 3.5 years of his career in Detroit, Hockenson has become a fantasy star in Minnesota. Over his first seven games with the Vikings, the star tight end has averaged 8.1 targets and 31.3 air yards per game. However, he was unstoppable on Saturday against the New York Giants. He finished second among tight ends in air yards (62) and first in targets (16). By comparison, Hockenson averaged only 26.6 air yards and 6.1 targets per game during his time with the Lions. His Week 17 matchup against the Packers isn’t ideal. Yet, the star tight end has entered the set-it-and-forget-it category for fantasy players.

The Top Five Underperformers

The Cardinals have had awful past few weeks. After losing Kyler Murray to a season-ending injury, Colt McCoy suffered a concussion in Week 15. Last week, Trace McSorley started for the Cardinals. Unfortunately, he destroyed Hopkins’ fantasy value. The superstar receiver averaged 76 air yards and 17.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game with Murray at quarterback. He then averaged 62.5 air yards and 11.8 fantasy points per game with McCoy under center. However, Hopkins had -2 air yards and only 0.9 fantasy points on Christmas. If McSorley starts in Week 17, fantasy players should avoid playing Hopkins against the Atlanta Falcons.

Over the past three weeks, Engram has been on fire. The veteran is the TE1 during that span, averaging 19.6 fantasy points per game. However, his air yards production drastically differed from the previous two weeks. In Week 16, Engram had 113 receiving yards, but only 15.9% were air yards. By comparison, the veteran tight end had 175 receiving yards in Weeks 14 and 15, with 33.9% being air yards. Engram faces the Houston Texans this week. They have surrendered 38 air yards and 10.3 fantasy points per game to tight ends over the past two contests. Engram should have another excellent performance in Week 17.

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.