Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football.
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49ers vs. Seahawks: Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice (Week 15)
- SF -3.5, O/U 43.5
- 49ers vs. Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The passing volume in this game will be surprising. Since Week 13, the 49ers have been 12th in neutral script passing rate. Overall this season, the Seahawks rank eighth in passing rate in close games.
- Seattle remains 14th in neutral script pace. The 49ers have remained slow with Brock Purdy under center as they are 27th in neutral pace over the last two weeks.
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy: In Purdy’s two NFL starts, he’s finished as the QB18 and QB6 in fantasy. He’s 36th in PFF passing grade, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 24th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Purdy is a solid QB2 that can be elevated any week by the surrounding skill player talent into QB1 status. That could easily happen again this week. He’s also 49th in aDOT as he’s relied on his receivers to make plays after the catch. The Seahawks are 28th in YAC, so San Francisco’s skill guys should have plenty of opportunities to create some big plays. Since Week 10, Seattle has been 29th in success rate per dropback and 23rd in EPA per dropback.
Geno Smith: Smith has been excellent this year and shows no signs of slowing down. He’s sixth in PFF passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and fourth in passing touchdowns. Chef Geno has a daunting task in front of him this week. The 49ers’ pass defense has been a shutdown unit outside of cratering under the greatness of Patrick Mahomes. Since Week 10, they are first in success rate per dropback and second in EPA per dropback allowed. They have held quarterbacks to the second-fewest passing touchdowns (tied) and the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns. Seattle will have a tough time moving the ball against the 49ers’ run defense, so Smith and the passing attack will be the Seahawks’ primary means of moving the ball. Temper your expectations for Smith this week, but he can still bring back low-end QB1 numbers if the volume gets ramped up.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey: Since becoming a 49er, McCaffrey has been a volume monster without Elijah Mitchell in the lineup. In the three games without Mitchell, McCaffrey has played at least 70% of the snaps averaging 22.3 touches and 149.3 total yards. Since Week 7, he’s 40th in yards after contact per attempt but sixth in breakaway rate and runs of ten-plus yards. As a 49er, McCaffrey has remained one of the league’s elite receiving backs with a 19.4% target share (6.7 targets per game), 58.7% route run rate, and 2.15 yards per route run. McCaffrey is a top-three running back again this week against a push-over Seattle run defense. Since Week 10, they are 30th in rushing success rate, 31st in EPA per rush, and 31st in explosive run rate allowed. The Seahawks have also allowed the sixth-most receptions and third-most receiving yards to backs this season. McCaffrey has week winning upside in Week 15.
Jordan Mason: Over the last two weeks as McCaffrey’s running mate, Mason has averaged 24% of the snaps with 9.5 rushes and 53.5 rushing yards per game. Since Week 7, Mason is seventh in yards after contact per attempt and third in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries) as he’s made the most of his opportunities. However, Mason is still waiting for his first opportunity in the red zone this season. With a beautiful matchup incoming but zero touchdown equity, Mason is an RB4 that you’re praying breaks off a long run for six points.
Kenneth Walker: Walker has practiced in full the last two days and doesn’t carry an injury designation this week. Since Week 6, in the full games Walker has played, he has been averaging 20.9 touches and 94.8 total yards. Walker is fifth in red zone touches and 17th in opportunity share. He’s been a big play machine, ranking sixth in juke rate, ninth in evaded tackles, and seventh in breakaway run rate. Fire him up as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 despite the grueling defense he’s facing. Since Week 10, the 49ers are eighth in rushing success rate, second in rushing yards per game, and first in explosive run rate allowed.
DeeJay Dallas: Dallas has not practiced all week. He has been listed as questionable. Consider him out this week.
Travis Homer: Despite pregame reports that Tony Jones Jr. would be the Seahawks starting running back, Homer was the workhorse last week. He played 91% of the snaps with 11 touches and 34 total yards. Homer returns to breather-back status that will contribute some in the passing game. He’s an RB4.
Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel: Samuel will miss some time after suffering a sprained MCL and ankle sprain last week. The team is hoping he returns during the regular season.
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk has a 21.3% target share this season while leading the team in receiving touchdowns (seven) and air yard share (30.2%). He’s been an elite talent this season, ranking 19th in PFF receiving grade and 31st in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Per ESPN analytics, he’s seventh in open rate among wideouts, with at least 34 targets immediately behind Davante Adams. With Purdy under center, he has a 19.4% target share averaging six targets and 51.5 receiving yards. Aiyuk will get a target share bump with Samuel out of the lineup. Aiyuk is a WR2/3 that will run about 73% of his routes against Tariq Woolen (54.9% catch rate, 65.6 passer rating) and Michael Jackson (63.5% catch rate, 93.7 passer rating).
Tyler Lockett: Lockett is having one of the best seasons of his career. He’s on pace for 1,172 receiving yards and ten receiving touchdowns, which would be the second-highest single-season receiving yardage of his career while tying his career high in touchdowns. Lockett has a 23.6% target share (23rd) and 32.5% air yard share (20th, minimum 50 targets). He’s 20th in PFF receiving grade and 17th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). I know I keep harping on it, but the trend for Lockett bears fruit weekly. Does the team favor zone coverage in their defensive scheme? Ok, then Lockett eats week. The 49ers are another team that loves zone coverage, as their starting outside corners have operated in zone on 65-67.3% of their coverage snaps. Lockett is ninth in PFF receiving grade and 12th in yards per route run against zone (minimum ten zone targets). Lockett is a WR1 that will run about 56% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (59.7% catch rate, 87.1 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (68.9% catch rate, 85.1 passer rating).
D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf continues to do Metcalf things weekly. He’s seventh in target share (26.4%), second in end zone target share (50%), and 11th in air yard share (37.7%) among receivers with at least 50 targets. While he’s not on Lockett’s level against zone coverage, Metcalf isn’t a bum either, ranking 28th in PFF receiving grade and 39th in yards per route run against the coverage (minimum ten zone targets). Metcalf is tied for ninth in receiving touchdowns (six). He’s a WR2 that will run about 82% of his routes against Ward and Lenoir.
Tight Ends
George Kittle: With Samuel out of the lineup, Kittle should also see a stronger target share this week. Since 2020 in the six games without Samuel in the lineup, Kittle has seen his PPR points per game jump from 13.0 to 15.7 and his receiving yards per game increase from 59.7 to 77.1. Kittle has a 16.7% target share, a 28.6% end zone target share, and a 78.5% route run rate this year. He’s 14th in PFF receiving grade and 17th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Kittle is a top-five tight-end option. Seattle is 27th in DVOA, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards and second-highest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
SEA TEs: The Seattle tight-end room has been an avoidable crapshoot of disappointment. Over the last three games, none of them has earned higher than an 8.2% target share or 35.9% route run rate. Noah Fant, Will Dissly, and Colby Parkinson have formed a dreaded three-way tight-end committee. Avoid everyone from this tight-end depth chart until it whittles down to at least two players or someone emerges from this group.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*