Ryan Newman | Wed, Nov 23rd 2022, 9:03am EST

WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 12 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Another week and another set of unexpected outcomes from week 11. The only thing that has been constant in the 2022 NFL season has been inconsistency. This has trickled into WR Fantasy projections, so using data to ID the best likely outcomes is more important than ever. So, let’s jump right in, as we have some very solid projections this week.

Week 11 Results

After a couple of strong weeks, we landed another “blah” week, going 2-3, with very little magnitude on either side.

Name	FP Selection	Projected	Actual	Net
Garrett Wilson	START	9.3	3.2	-6.1
Darius Slayton	START	10.5	13.6	+3.1
Nico Collins	START	9.5	9.8	+.3
Michael Pittman	SIT	13.0	13.5	+.5
DeVonta Smith	SIT	12.4	13.8	+1.4

Season Scorecard

Season Record: 41-27

*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR

Week 12 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard

		Raw Numbers				Weekly Rank
	Snaps	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Avg. Rk.
Drake London	54.6	17.6	0.00	3.35	7.9	2	10	9	33	14
Amon-Ra St. Brown	37.2	14.9	0.00	1.71	14.0	7	10	22	21	15
Keenan Allen	40.9	12.6	0.00	0.95	31.2	18	10	30	4	16
DeAndre Hopkins	42.1	17.0	0.00	2.91	5.2	3	10	11	44	17
Michael Pittman Jr.	40.4	12.3	0.07	4.82	3.1	21	4	2	49	19
Tee Higgins	40.4	10.3	0.00	2.13	15.1	34	10	19	19	21
Chris Olave	51.2	18.2	0.00	1.38	4.2	1	10	26	46	21
Brandon Aiyuk	39.8	14.4	0.00	0.20	12.9	13	10	37	24	21
Mike Williams	41.3	12.4	0.00	3.66	2.1	20	10	6	52	22
Davante Adams	39.5	10.7	0.00	0.00	28.7	31	10	40	8	22
Allen Lazard	38.3	12.0	0.00	6.03	1.8	23	10	1	55	22
Corey Davis	39.1	9.6	0.00	1.73	15.5	40	10	21	18	22
Garrett Wilson	47.1	13.1	0.10	0.00	7.9	16	2	40	32	23
Darius Slayton	39.7	15.8	0.00	0.68	5.1	4	10	33	45	23
Alec Pierce	43.4	12.0	0.01	3.55	0.2	25	8	7	57	24
Deebo Samuel	37.2	12.4	0.00	0.27	7.4	19	10	36	34	25
Noah Brown	42.0	9.2	0.00	2.01	9.6	44	10	20	29	26
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	39.5	10.0	0.00	3.16	3.7	36	10	10	47	26
Tyler Boyd	40.5	7.2	0.00	0.18	57.4	55	10	38	1	26
Amari Cooper	40.6	8.9	0.00	0.00	25.4	45	10	40	10	26
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	41.9	8.5	0.08	2.64	5.4	48	3	14	42	27
Christian Watson	36.9	14.6	0.07	1.40	-2.5	11	5	25	67	27
Stefon Diggs	42.3	14.8	0.00	-0.27	26.7	8	10	81	9	27
Adam Thielen	39.7	9.7	0.00	3.73	0.3	39	10	5	56	28
Devin Duvernay	41.9	7.5	0.00	0.00	29.5	53	10	40	7	28
Josh Palmer	41.1	9.3	0.00	1.64	6.8	43	10	23	36	28
Gabriel Davis	42.2	8.1	0.00	0.44	20.1	51	10	35	16	28
Parris Campbell	40.4	10.3	0.29	1.46	1.9	35	1	24	53	28
Terrace Marshall Jr.	39.3	9.5	0.00	3.46	1.8	41	10	8	54	28
Nico Collins	38.4	6.5	0.00	0.00	30.0	57	10	40	6	28
Robert Woods	39.2	9.8	0.00	0.98	5.2	37	10	29	43	30
Brandin Cooks	38.2	6.1	0.00	0.00	22.1	58	10	40	14	31
Donovan Peoples-Jones	40.6	6.1	0.00	0.00	23.6	59	10	40	13	31
James Proche	42.0	3.6	0.00	0.00	36.7	72	10	40	2	31
DeVonta Smith	41.7	12.0	0.00	0.00	2.4	24	10	39	51	31
Mack Hollins	39.6	4.9	0.00	0.00	25.0	65	10	40	12	32
Chase Claypool	41.8	8.6	0.02	4.41	-6.2	46	7	3	71	32
Demarcus Robinson	41.8	4.8	0.00	0.00	25.1	67	10	40	11	32
David Bell	34.1	2.6	0.00	0.00	33.7	75	10	40	3	32
Justin Jefferson	39.5	15.0	-0.03	2.52	10.8	6	83	15	27	33
Terry McLaurin	41.3	11.0	0.00	-0.25	20.3	28	10	80	15	33
Jahan Dotson	51.7	14.8	0.01	-1.14	8.0	9	9	85	31	34
CeeDee Lamb	41.4	14.5	-0.05	2.48	13.0	12	86	16	23	34
A.J. Green	42.1	8.3	0.00	2.75	-1.9	49	10	13	66	35
Allen Robinson II	39.7	9.4	0.00	2.23	-3.9	42	10	18	70	35
JuJu Smith-Schuster	59.3	15.7	-0.02	0.80	12.2	5	82	31	25	36
Curtis Samuel	39.7	12.7	0.00	-1.09	6.5	17	10	84	37	37
Jakobi Meyers	39.3	14.1	-0.07	2.25	10.2	15	88	17	28	37
Keelan Cole	39.5	1.2	0.00	0.00	17.4	82	10	40	17	37
K.J. Osborn	39.8	8.6	0.00	1.06	-1.0	47	10	28	65	38
Damiere Byrd	39.7	14.3	0.00	-2.35	6.2	14	10	88	39	38
Jauan Jennings	39.8	11.4	-0.06	4.09	7.2	26	87	4	35	38
A.J. Brown	41.6	14.6	-0.04	0.63	11.7	10	84	34	26	39
Jarvis Landry	38.5	12.3	0.00	-0.20	2.8	22	10	79	50	40
Olamide Zaccheaus	39.9	11.1	0.00	-2.76	5.9	27	10	89	41	42
Treylon Burks	41.2	10.8	-0.13	2.84	6.2	30	90	12	40	43
Kalif Raymond	37.6	8.3	0.00	-2.03	8.2	50	10	87	30	44
Richie James Jr.	36.7	9.7	0.00	0.00	-41.3	38	10	40	89	44
DeVante Parker	39.4	7.4	-0.04	1.30	14.1	54	85	27	20	47
Darnell Mooney	41.6	10.7	0.04	-0.56	-3.2	32	6	82	68	47
D.J. Moore	39.0	10.3	0.00	-0.95	-0.2	33	10	83	64	48
Elijah Moore	39.4	7.0	0.00	-1.36	6.4	56	10	86	38	48
Julio Jones	40.5	5.9	0.00	0.00	-22.4	60	10	40	81	48
Quez Watkins	41.1	4.9	0.00	0.00	30.7	66	80	40	5	48
Justin Watson	28.9	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	85	10	40	58	48
Ben Skowronek	38.0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	85	10	40	58	48
Van Jefferson	39.7	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	85	10	40	58	48
Mike Evans	40.5	5.8	0.00	0.00	-23.3	61	10	40	82	48
Chris Moore	38.2	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	85	10	40	58	48
Rondale Moore	41.0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	85	10	40	58	48
Equanimeous St. Brown	40.7	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	85	10	40	58	48
Michael Gallup	42.0	8.0	-0.07	0.71	13.5	52	89	32	22	49
Isaiah Hodgins	30.8	5.4	0.00	0.00	-24.2	62	10	40	85	49
Rashid Shaheed	32.1	4.6	0.00	0.00	-21.6	68	10	40	80	50
Chris Godwin	40.2	5.2	0.00	0.00	-35.1	63	10	40	86	50
Randall Cobb	39.0	5.2	0.00	0.00	-37.9	64	10	40	87	50
Nelson Agholor	39.3	1.9	0.00	0.00	-8.4	77	10	40	74	50
Ja’Marr Chase	40.2	1.6	0.00	0.00	-7.6	80	10	40	73	51
Trent Sherfield	41.2	1.9	0.00	0.00	-12.3	76	10	40	77	51
D.J. Chark Jr.	37.9	2.7	0.00	0.00	-17.9	74	10	40	79	51
D.K. Metcalf	39.7	0.8	0.00	0.00	-3.9	84	10	40	69	51
Tyreek Hill	40.5	1.7	0.00	0.00	-9.2	79	10	40	75	51
Zay Jones	39.4	4.5	0.00	0.00	-24.0	70	10	40	84	51
Jaylen Waddle	40.7	1.7	0.00	0.00	-10.1	78	10	40	76	51
Marvin Jones Jr.	39.3	4.4	0.00	0.00	-23.8	71	10	40	83	51
Marquise Goodwin	39.3	1.1	0.00	0.00	-7.3	83	10	40	72	51
Christian Kirk	39.2	4.6	0.00	0.00	-54.7	69	10	40	90	52
Tyler Lockett	39.4	1.4	0.00	0.00	-12.6	81	10	40	78	52
Shi Smith	39.4	2.8	0.00	0.00	-39.9	73	10	40	88	53
Isaiah McKenzie	41.9	10.9	-0.01	-3.83	3.2	29	81	90	48	62

*Again thanks to our friends at PFF for the data

**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read), we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.

Legend

Snaps: estimated total dropback snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run.” Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.

Example:

Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run

This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)

*40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
*HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage.” Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB

*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e., you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this data point to populate)

Secondary/Bonus Chart

For this week, we included data points/model to represent the target share CHANGES given specific circumstances (Blitz, Man) we expect the WR to see, given the opponent’s tendencies. As we’ve noted previously, how a QB operates and who he targets can change drastically given the defensive scheme, so keeping the data below in consideration for setting your lineup on a weekly basis is key.

A few notes on the data below:

ALL stats ignore game scripts of greater than a 16-point differential (either way), the goal line (and from 0-10 yard line) and 4th downs and quarters.
All % next to a WR represent target SHARE given the circumstance (i.e., Nico Collins is seeing 24% of targets without a blitz and 62% when blitzed).
The first six columns represent how the respective WR performs, along with a “bonus” that’s reflective of target share increasing with Blitz (vs. non-Blitz) and Man (vs. Zone), meaning a negative number is not “bad,” but more so that the WR’s target share gets a bump with no Blitz or Zone respectively.
The middle columns represent the WR’s opponent’s tendencies, along with a (3rd and 5th row in the middle section) metric for how many percentage points above or below league average THAT defense sends blitz/runs Man.
The last three columns give an aggregate of how the WR performs relative to coverage and blitz schemes to expect

WR Details	WR Target Ownership Splits						Opponent Blitz/No Blitz & Man/Zone Splits					Net WR vs Opp expected value
Player	no blitz %	BLITZ %	Blitz Bonus	zone %	MAN %	Man Bonus	W12 Opp	BLITZ Rate	BR > Avg	MAN RATE	MR>Avg	“Blitz” Bonus	“Man” Bonus	Total “bump”
Nico Collins	24%	62%	38%	17%	46%	28%	MIA	35%	11%	34%	5%	4%	2%	6%
A.J. Brown	37%	61%	24%	41%	50%	9%	GB	43%	20%	37%	8%	5%	1%	5%
Jauan Jennings	16%	13%	-3%	9%	40%	30%	NO	13%	-10%	39%	10%	0%	3%	3%
Amari Cooper	34%	71%	37%	46%	34%	-11%	TB	29%	6%	19%	-10%	2%	1%	3%
Curtis Samuel	35%	1%	-34%	35%	14%	-21%	ATL	15%	-8%	25%	-3%	3%	1%	3%
Noah Brown	22%	25%	3%	17%	32%	14%	NYG	38%	15%	46%	17%	0%	2%	3%
George Pickens	39%	19%	-20%	29%	49%	20%	IND	12%	-11%	31%	2%	2%	0%	3%
Josh Reynolds	41%	11%	-31%	21%	18%	-2%	BUF	16%	-8%	24%	-5%	2%	0%	2%
DeAndre Hopkins	36%	22%	-14%	25%	51%	27%	LAC	25%	1%	39%	10%	0%	3%	2%
Brandon Aiyuk	48%	44%	-4%	40%	57%	17%	NO	13%	-10%	39%	10%	0%	2%	2%
Jakobi Meyers	33%	24%	-9%	31%	27%	-4%	MIN	14%	-9%	12%	-17%	1%	1%	1%
Tyler Boyd	29%	20%	-9%	30%	22%	-7%	TEN	10%	-13%	24%	-4%	1%	0%	1%
Darius Slayton	32%	39%	7%	25%	36%	12%	DAL	26%	3%	39%	10%	0%	1%	1%
JuJu Smith-Schuster	20%	27%	8%	26%	19%	-7%	LAR	30%	7%	17%	-11%	1%	1%	1%
Alec Pierce	34%	28%	-6%	24%	39%	15%	PIT	24%	1%	38%	9%	0%	1%	1%
Jaylen Waddle	30%	22%	-9%	31%	13%	-18%	HOU	19%	-4%	24%	-5%	0%	1%	1%
Treylon Burks	21%	12%	-9%	11%	26%	15%	CIN	17%	-6%	33%	4%	1%	1%	1%
Diontae Johnson	34%	27%	-8%	32%	36%	4%	IND	12%	-11%	31%	2%	1%	0%	1%
Marvin Jones	20%	28%	7%	26%	11%	-15%	BAL	22%	-1%	22%	-7%	0%	1%	1%
Courtland Sutton	52%	35%	-17%	54%	38%	-17%	CAR	26%	2%	21%	-8%	0%	1%	1%
Gabriel Davis	28%	39%	11%	35%	19%	-16%	DET	31%	8%	30%	1%	1%	0%	1%
Marquise Brown	23%	51%	27%	25%	29%	4%	LAC	25%	1%	39%	10%	0%	0%	1%
DeAndre Carter	22%	25%	4%	23%	19%	-4%	ARI	33%	10%	18%	-11%	0%	0%	1%
Cooper Kupp	39%	51%	12%	46%	35%	-11%	KC	28%	5%	28%	-1%	1%	0%	1%
Michael Bandy	0%	4%	4%	2%	-1%	-3%	ARI	33%	10%	18%	-11%	0%	0%	1%
CeeDee Lamb	50%	46%	-4%	44%	52%	7%	NYG	38%	15%	46%	17%	-1%	1%	1%
Drake London	30%	27%	-3%	26%	40%	14%	WAS	24%	0%	34%	5%	0%	1%	1%
DJ Moore	51%	65%	15%	45%	57%	13%	DEN	29%	6%	27%	-1%	1%	0%	1%
Justin Jefferson	51%	70%	18%	55%	66%	11%	NE	22%	-1%	36%	7%	0%	1%	1%
Isaiah McKenzie	7%	14%	7%	8%	11%	3%	DET	31%	8%	30%	1%	1%	0%	1%
Allen Lazard	34%	45%	11%	24%	39%	15%	PHI	24%	0%	32%	3%	0%	0%	1%
Kalif Raymond	27%	25%	-2%	30%	21%	-9%	BUF	16%	-8%	24%	-5%	0%	0%	1%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	31%	0%	-31%	31%	8%	-22%	LAR	30%	7%	17%	-11%	-2%	3%	0%
Christian Kirk	44%	28%	-16%	36%	32%	-4%	BAL	22%	-1%	22%	-7%	0%	0%	0%
Amon-Ra St. Brown	41%	32%	-9%	36%	42%	6%	BUF	16%	-8%	24%	-5%	1%	0%	0%
Elijah Moore	22%	17%	-5%	19%	18%	-1%	CHI	16%	-7%	27%	-2%	0%	0%	0%
Josh Palmer	36%	18%	-18%	37%	18%	-19%	ARI	33%	10%	18%	-11%	-2%	2%	0%
K.J. Osborn	15%	2%	-13%	6%	9%	3%	NE	22%	-1%	36%	7%	0%	0%	0%
DeVante Parker	20%	39%	19%	30%	18%	-12%	MIN	14%	-9%	12%	-17%	-2%	2%	0%
Terrace Marshall Jr.	27%	29%	2%	27%	18%	-8%	DEN	29%	6%	27%	-1%	0%	0%	0%
Jarvis Landry	18%	3%	-15%	15%	2%	-13%	SF	25%	2%	25%	-3%	0%	0%	0%
Devin Duvernay	18%	25%	8%	21%	24%	3%	JAC	26%	3%	26%	-2%	0%	0%	0%
Ben Skowronek	13%	18%	5%	11%	21%	10%	KC	28%	5%	28%	-1%	0%	0%	0%
Marquez Callaway	7%	8%	1%	9%	5%	-4%	SF	25%	2%	25%	-3%	0%	0%	0%
Michael Pittman Jr.	35%	46%	11%	33%	33%	0%	PIT	24%	1%	38%	9%	0%	0%	0%
Wan’Dale Robinson	17%	1%	-16%	10%	15%	5%	DAL	26%	3%	39%	10%	0%	1%	0%
Scotty Miller	11%	7%	-4%	13%	1%	-12%	CLE	20%	-3%	30%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Chris Godwin	17%	15%	-3%	18%	10%	-8%	CLE	20%	-3%	30%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	30%	14%	-16%	34%	11%	-23%	CIN	17%	-6%	33%	4%	1%	-1%	0%
Mike Evans	38%	41%	3%	38%	39%	1%	CLE	20%	-3%	30%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Mack Hollins	26%	19%	-7%	18%	37%	19%	SEA	16%	-8%	26%	-3%	1%	-1%	0%
DK Metcalf	32%	42%	9%	40%	27%	-13%	LV	24%	1%	30%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Zay Jones	23%	23%	1%	23%	25%	2%	BAL	22%	-1%	22%	-7%	0%	0%	0%
Demarcus Robinson	24%	7%	-18%	24%	11%	-14%	JAC	26%	3%	26%	-2%	0%	0%	0%
Olamide Zaccheaus	24%	30%	6%	25%	21%	-4%	WAS	24%	0%	34%	5%	0%	0%	0%
Rondale Moore	12%	2%	-10%	12%	11%	-1%	LAC	25%	1%	39%	10%	0%	0%	0%
Romeo Doubs	9%	23%	13%	19%	11%	-9%	PHI	24%	0%	32%	3%	0%	0%	0%
Robert Woods	27%	23%	-4%	29%	18%	-10%	CIN	17%	-6%	33%	4%	0%	0%	0%
DeVonta Smith	27%	23%	-4%	26%	31%	6%	GB	43%	20%	37%	8%	-1%	0%	0%
Allen Robinson	29%	27%	-2%	22%	38%	17%	KC	28%	5%	28%	-1%	0%	0%	0%
Corey Davis	20%	33%	13%	30%	0%	-30%	CHI	16%	-7%	27%	-2%	-1%	1%	0%
Tyler Lockett	39%	29%	-9%	35%	19%	-16%	LV	24%	1%	30%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Rashod Bateman	19%	9%	-10%	10%	11%	1%	JAC	26%	3%	26%	-2%	0%	0%	0%
Russell Gage	9%	23%	15%	8%	20%	12%	CLE	20%	-3%	30%	1%	0%	0%	0%
A.J. Green	4%	0%	-4%	4%	1%	-3%	LAC	25%	1%	39%	10%	0%	0%	0%
Tre’Quan Smith	11%	15%	4%	7%	21%	13%	SF	25%	2%	25%	-3%	0%	0%	0%
Chris Olave	39%	51%	12%	36%	53%	17%	SF	25%	2%	25%	-3%	0%	-1%	0%
Sterling Shepard	16%	7%	-9%	13%	10%	-2%	DAL	26%	3%	39%	10%	0%	0%	0%
Terry McLaurin	50%	53%	3%	41%	50%	9%	ATL	15%	-8%	25%	-3%	0%	0%	-1%
Hunter Renfrow	9%	16%	7%	11%	12%	1%	SEA	16%	-8%	26%	-3%	-1%	0%	-1%
Randall Cobb	22%	1%	-21%	28%	12%	-16%	PHI	24%	0%	32%	3%	0%	-1%	-1%
Adam Thielen	28%	36%	8%	32%	25%	-8%	NE	22%	-1%	36%	7%	0%	-1%	-1%
Stefon Diggs	50%	41%	-9%	48%	43%	-4%	DET	31%	8%	30%	1%	-1%	0%	-1%
Greg Dortch	6%	10%	3%	9%	1%	-9%	LAC	25%	1%	39%	10%	0%	-1%	-1%
Mike Williams	33%	32%	-1%	26%	32%	6%	ARI	33%	10%	18%	-11%	0%	-1%	-1%
Richie James Jr.	19%	30%	11%	21%	9%	-12%	DAL	26%	3%	39%	10%	0%	-1%	-1%
Tee Higgins	36%	40%	5%	29%	38%	8%	TEN	10%	-13%	24%	-4%	-1%	0%	-1%
David Sills V	13%	1%	-11%	11%	4%	-7%	DAL	26%	3%	39%	10%	0%	-1%	-1%
Ja’Marr Chase	26%	30%	4%	22%	36%	14%	TEN	10%	-13%	24%	-4%	0%	-1%	-1%
Shi Smith	15%	-2%	-18%	8%	24%	17%	DEN	29%	6%	27%	-1%	-1%	0%	-1%
Jerry Jeudy	23%	39%	17%	16%	37%	21%	CAR	26%	2%	21%	-8%	0%	-2%	-1%
Parris Campbell	22%	6%	-16%	22%	7%	-15%	PIT	24%	1%	38%	9%	0%	-1%	-1%
Michael Gallup	14%	11%	-3%	14%	8%	-6%	NYG	38%	15%	46%	17%	0%	-1%	-1%
Chris Moore	19%	5%	-14%	13%	13%	1%	MIA	35%	11%	34%	5%	-2%	0%	-2%
Davante Adams	50%	72%	22%	49%	48%	-1%	SEA	16%	-8%	26%	-3%	-2%	0%	-2%
Garrett Wilson	28%	47%	19%	29%	42%	13%	CHI	16%	-7%	27%	-2%	-1%	0%	-2%
Donovan Peoples-Jones	38%	30%	-8%	25%	38%	13%	TB	29%	6%	19%	-10%	0%	-1%	-2%
Tyreek Hill	44%	77%	32%	47%	66%	18%	HOU	19%	-4%	24%	-5%	-1%	-1%	-2%
Nelson Agholor	11%	26%	15%	13%	18%	5%	MIN	14%	-9%	12%	-17%	-1%	-1%	-2%
Brandin Cooks	43%	17%	-26%	35%	13%	-23%	MIA	35%	11%	34%	5%	-3%	-1%	-4%
Deebo Samuel	7%	32%	25%	20%	3%	-17%	NO	13%	-10%	39%	10%	-2%	-2%	-4%
Darnell Mooney	39%	74%	35%	39%	49%	10%	Jets	11%	-12%	27%	-2%	-4%	0%	-4%

*Thanks to our friends at Sports Info Solutions, and their SIS Database for the info!

WR Matchups to Target in Week 12

*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)

Jauan Jennings (WR – SF)

Jennings comes in with both models liking his prospective outcomes for this week. For starters, Jennings gets a huge bump in target share when facing man coverage (40% vs. 9%), and he will be facing the Saints, that play Man Coverage 10% points higher than the league average (39%). Additionally, he draws veteran Chris Harris (64% expected pass snaps) this week. With that, Jennings has our 4th best (weighted) height advantage this week, mainly due to the 5 inches he has over Harris (70 vs 75).

Noah Brown (WR – DAL)

Somewhat similar, and a bit surprising, Brown is gaining 32% of the Cowboy’s targets when blitzed, vs. 17% when NOT blitzed. This is especially important as he faces the NFL’s “blitziest” team in the Giants (17% percentage points above league average). Brown also comes in with our main model’s 18th-best net matchup this week, mainly fueled by a solid nPFF rating (29th) and a solid “physical matchup” (10th-best speed advantage and 20th-best net height advantage). The majority of this has to do with the 4 inches Brown has over likely cover men Darnay Holmes (34% of expected coverage snaps).

Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)

Anecdotally, I love Boyd this week. With Chase likely coming back , most of the fantasy world (and hopefully DCs) will be focused his way. However, Boyd has a strong matchup this week regardless. Boyd has been QB, Joe Burrow‘s target “in structure.” That is, when teams play zone (30% vs 22%) and don’t blitz (29% vs 20%), Boyd’s target share goes up.

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 12

Darnell Mooney

We scored on Mooney earlier in the year (in the opposite direction). Ignoring the possibility of his young QB being banged up, Mooney has the worst “circumstances” this week: to sum up, Mooney has a massive increase in targets when opponents blitz, especially in man. However, the Jets blitz 12% points less than league average, and run man slightly below average (-2% points).

Tyreek Hill

I may sound like a broken record here, but Hill “loves” blitz/man, gaining a whopping 77% target share (vs 44%) with a blitz and 66% (vs 47%) in man. This does not bode well, marginally speaking, when facing the Lovie Smith defense, which doesn’t blitz and runs zone.

We hope the model helped you all make 50/50 decisions, and better position your roster to get the “W” this week. Here’s to a winning week. We hope to see you back in Week 13.

NFL

MLB

NBA

NHL