Ten weeks are in the books, and this crazy NFL season roars on to Week 11. Our model has fully populated with good, relevant data, and we think this week could have even better predictions for you than last week. Let’s jump right in.
Week 10 Results
What a bounceback week for the model. After being so embarrassed and not even releasing the results, we knocked it out of the park last week, going 4-1, generating you 17.5 additional points, or just about 3.5 per selection in Week 10.
Ten weeks are in the books, and this crazy NFL season roars on to Week 11. Our model has fully populated with good, relevant data, and we think this week could have even better predictions for you than last week. Let’s jump right in.
Week 10 Results
What a bounceback week for the model. After being so embarrassed and not even releasing the results, we knocked it out of the park last week, going 4-1, generating you 17.5 additional points, or just about 3.5 per selection in Week 10.
Season Scorecard
Season Record: 39-24
*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR
Week 11 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard
*Again, thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read), we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.
Legend
- Snaps: estimated total dropback snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
- Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run.” Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs. the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.
Example:
- Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
- DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
- DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
- DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run
This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)
- *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
- *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
- nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage.” Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB
*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e., you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this data point to populate)
WR Matchups to Target in Week 11
*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)
Garrett Wilson
Wilson comes in with our model’s fifth-best matchup of the week. Although he has moderate advantages in height and nPFF grades, he comes in as our 4th best aggregate matchup for both speed and weighted net points per route run (PPRR). Although our model thinks the primary cover man, Jonathan Jones (44% of coverage snaps predicted), matches up well, it’s the aggregate of Myles Bryant (35%) and Jalen Mills (20%) is where Wilson may find the most success. Both are at speed disadvantages, and both come in with below-average/weak net PFF grades, relatively speaking.
Darius Slayton
Slayton has had a very tumultuous season thus far but has caught on the last few weeks, posting double digits three games in a row. For week 11 in particular, the advanced metrics really like BOTH his net PFF grades and nPPRR. Much of this has to do with his likely matchup vs. Mike Hughes (43%) and his 54.1 grade vs. Slayton’s strong 76.4 comparison.
Nico Collins
Collins has been off our radar for most of the season but draws a good matchup this week. He will likely see the majority (51%) of his pass snaps vs. Benjamin St-Juste. And although there are minimal physical advantages, Collins brings strong advanced metrics to this matchup: 74.3 PFF grade, along with 1.88 yards per route run. On the flip side, St-Juste boasts only a 56.5 and 1.41 YPRR.
WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 11
Michael Pittman
Frankly, this week was a bit tough to find OBVIOUS WR mismatches, but we have to mention Pittman. The early-season-darling has fizzled of late and has three of our four variables shouting to stay away this week. That is, despite having a strong net height advantage, he has a 49th or worst ranking in the remaining “buckets.” This is mainly caused by star Eagles CB Darius Slay, who is likely to match up with Pittman for 41% of snaps. To simplify how strong Slay has been against the pass: CBs average 1.2 YPRR. Slay boasts a .83 YPRR.
DeVonta Smith
This week, Smith draws veteran CB Stephon Gilmore (42% of snaps). Yes, Smith has some strong advanced stats on his side, but Gilmore brings a 1.12 YPRR (vs. Smith’s 1.63) AND all but “covers up” Smith’s 78 PFF grade with a 77 grade of his own.
We hope to ride the momentum from last week and bring you another winning lineup. Here’s to a “W” for you all in week 11.
