Both the Jets and Giants have a winning record, and Tom Brady may finally be acting his age. As we have covered in earlier pieces, this is the most chaotic season in the modern NFL era. With that, we will try to parse through the noise and provide you with some actionable insights to pick your WRs in your lineup this week. Let’s jump right in.
Week 9 Results
I’ll be the first to admit, although we only went 2-3, I am too embarrassed to display the outcomes last week from our “Play picks.” Feel free to look up last week if you’d like a laugh, but I refuse to put in the effort to highlight our own, albeit ONE WEEK, failure.
Season Scorecard
Season Record: 35-23
*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR
Both the Jets and Giants have a winning record, and Tom Brady may finally be acting his age. As we have covered in earlier pieces, this is the most chaotic season in the modern NFL era. With that, we will try to parse through the noise and provide you with some actionable insights to pick your WRs in your lineup this week. Let’s jump right in.
Week 9 Results
I’ll be the first to admit, although we only went 2-3, I am too embarrassed to display the outcomes last week from our “Play picks.” Feel free to look up last week if you’d like a laugh, but I refuse to put in the effort to highlight our own, albeit ONE WEEK, failure.
Season Scorecard
Season Record: 35-23
*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR
Week 10 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard
*Again, thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read), we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.
Legend
- Snaps: estimated total dropback snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
- Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run.” Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs. the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.
Example:
- Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
- DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
- DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
- DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run
This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)
- *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
- *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
- nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage.” Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB
*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e. you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this data point to populate)
WR Matchups to Target in Week 10
*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)
Tre’Quan Smith
Despite all the turnover that’s happened in the Saints’ passing game this season, QB Andy Dalton is actually playing well. Smith draws DB, Arthur Maulet (58% coverage snaps) this week. On the physical side, Maulet gives up 4 inches in height AND gives up a legit speed disadvantage in a 4.62 40-yard dash vs. 4.49 (for Smith). Take that, along with Smith’s 73.9 PFF Grade vs. Maulet’s 51.7, and you have a recipe for success for the veteran WR.
Jerry Jeudy
Jeudy has been a bit of a tough nut to crack this season, particularly compared to his pre-season draft position (given the supposed upgrade at QB). However, based on the matchup, this could be a good opportunity for Jeudy. The WR is likely to face DB Joshua Kalu (74% expected snaps) for most of the contest. Although he has a speed advantage (4.45 vs. 4.58), what really excites us is his 7th-best net PFF grade for the week. Jeudy comes in with an above-average grade of 69.2, while Kalu brings with him a 52.1 grade.
George Pickens
Pickens has come up on our radar before. This week he checks many boxes, most notably his advanced data points. Yes, Pickens has a strong net height advantage (26th best on the week), yet Pickens will match up with 3-4 DBs, most of whom will be DB Paulson Adebo. Adebo not only has an embarrassing 38.9 PFF Grade, but he is also giving up a 2.16 FPPT. That’s almost double Pickens’ own 1.14.
WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 9
Mike Evans
Despite all the targets heading Evans’s way of late, week 10 may not be for him. Like our pick last week, Evans draws the rookie CB Tariq Woolen. Woolen is an absolute freak, bringing advanced data points to back it up. For that, we are shying away from Evans’ 1.89 fantasy points per route run when you look at Woolen’s .83. Simple math (granted, if things worked out this way) shows that we should expect about 6.4 fantasy points out of Evans in Week 10.
Diontae Johnson
Johnson is another repeat offender on our list. To be fair, Johnson comes in as our 11th-best net PFF grade, but he’s very low on all three other metrics we track. Johnson draws Alonta Taylor (48% of expected snaps) and Paulson Adebo (43%). Both matchups could be tough for the veteran WR, given his physical limitations (70 inches and 4.6 40 vs. 72 and 4.36 for Taylor alone).
Hope the model is helpful. Here’s to a winning week for you all!
