Ryan Newman | Thu, Nov 3rd 2022, 10:53am EDT

WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 9 (2022 Fantasy Football)

We are officially at the halfway point of the season. As we have noted before, between the extreme levels of parity across the board and offensive production being on a downswing, it’s more important than ever to find value in our WR selections for the week. The hope is the models below will help you get there. Let’s jump right in.

Week 8 Results

After a very strong week 7, we returned to earth with our first losing week on the season.

Name	FP Selection	Projected	Actual	Net
Garrett Wilson	START	10.4	17.5	+7.1(W)
Gabriel Davis	START	12.8	5.5	-7.3 (L)
Drake London	START	10.2	7.1	-3.1 (L)
*Rashod Bateman	SIT	*	*
Terry McLaurin	SIT	12.6	16.6	+4.0 (L)

*Injured

Week 8 Results

After a very strong week 7, we returned to earth with our first losing week on the season.

Name	FP Selection	Projected	Actual	Net
Garrett Wilson	START	10.4	17.5	+7.1(W)
Gabriel Davis	START	12.8	5.5	-7.3 (L)
Drake London	START	10.2	7.1	-3.1 (L)
*Rashod Bateman	SIT	*	*
Terry McLaurin	SIT	12.6	16.6	+4.0 (L)

*Injured

Season Scorecard

Season Record: 33-20

*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR

Week 9 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard

		Raw Numbers				Weekly Rank
	Snaps	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Avg. Rk.
Drake London	53.5	18.6	0.00	4.16	8.0	7	20	9	13	12
DK Metcalf	39.3	14.0	0.07	3.29	13.8	23	13	18	2	14
Chris Olave	52.9	19.6	0.07	1.55	7.7	3	14	39	14	18
Alec Pierce	41.1	11.7	0.09	4.04	6.5	41	8	11	16	19
A.J. Brown	42.9	17.2	0.00	1.93	8.5	12	20	35	11	20
Tee Higgins	41.0	12.8	0.00	4.72	4.5	31	20	5	27	21
Justin Jefferson	39.9	14.7	0.00	1.17	9.3	19	20	42	7	22
Mike Evans	56.0	22.8	-0.02	5.20	5.2	1	65	3	23	23
Allen Lazard	39.1	17.2	-0.04	4.59	9.2	11	68	6	9	24
Equanimeous St. Brown	41.2	10.6	0.04	5.55	3.9	48	15	1	31	24
JuJu Smith-Schuster	59.2	19.6	0.01	2.00	2.9	4	19	32	41	24
Tyreek Hill	39.6	19.4	0.00	-1.74	12.8	5	20	68	4	24
Julio Jones	40.6	14.7	0.09	3.12	2.2	21	9	22	46	25
Romeo Doubs	52.7	19.0	0.00	1.16	4.1	6	20	43	30	25
Jakobi Meyers	39.1	14.7	-0.05	4.25	13.2	20	69	8	3	25
Sammy Watkins	38.3	13.8	0.04	-0.33	15.4	25	16	59	1	25
Garrett Wilson	43.4	13.3	0.12	0.59	6.4	28	6	49	18	25
Davante Adams	40.1	14.2	0.00	1.94	5.0	22	20	34	25	25
Cody Hollister	38.8	10.4	0.00	3.72	5.3	53	20	13	21	27
Tyler Lockett	39.0	14.9	0.09	-2.28	8.3	17	7	71	12	27
Tre’Quan Smith	40.4	13.9	-0.01	3.14	10.9	24	58	21	5	27
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	41.4	10.5	0.17	5.00	-0.1	50	4	4	54	28
Jaylen Waddle	39.8	16.9	0.00	-1.79	9.0	13	20	69	10	28
Amon-Ra St. Brown	37.6	14.9	0.00	-0.28	6.3	16	20	58	19	28
Curtis Samuel	39.5	12.1	0.24	-0.66	6.9	38	2	60	15	29
Damiere Byrd	40.0	20.1	0.00	-1.70	4.9	2	20	67	26	29
Michael Pittman Jr.	40.1	12.1	-0.01	5.40	6.5	37	62	2	17	30
Tyler Boyd	41.1	13.4	-0.02	2.94	10.6	27	63	23	6	30
Mack Hollins	40.0	10.7	0.00	4.49	2.1	45	20	7	47	30
Terrace Marshall Jr.	38.8	10.1	0.00	3.83	3.0	56	20	12	39	32
DeVonta Smith	43.0	12.7	0.00	0.73	4.5	32	20	47	28	32
Adam Thielen	40.1	10.7	0.00	1.57	5.1	46	20	38	24	32
Corey Davis	37.9	10.4	0.00	3.15	3.2	52	20	20	36	32
Keenan Allen	42.8	18.3	-0.02	2.00	4.3	8	64	31	29	33
Parris Campbell	40.1	9.7	0.25	2.20	2.8	59	1	30	43	33
Terry McLaurin	55.8	15.6	0.14	-0.99	-0.2	14	5	61	55	34
Devin Duvernay	41.6	14.9	-0.01	-0.26	9.2	18	59	57	8	36
Mecole Hardman	41.2	13.0	0.19	-1.00	1.8	29	3	62	49	36
Darnell Mooney	42.0	12.5	0.08	-0.06	2.5	35	12	55	45	37
Marvin Jones Jr.	39.4	9.5	0.00	3.34	0.6	60	20	17	52	37
Stefon Diggs	42.2	17.9	0.00	0.12	3.3	10	55	51	34	38
Christian Kirk	39.3	12.6	-0.01	2.21	3.5	33	60	29	33	39
Josh Palmer	41.8	11.3	0.00	2.00	-2.1	43	20	32	60	39
Zay Jones	39.5	10.5	0.00	3.56	3.1	49	56	14	38	39
Cooper Kupp	39.2	15.1	-0.22	2.76	3.0	15	76	26	40	39
Chris Godwin	40.4	12.8	0.01	0.43	-4.6	30	17	50	65	41
Hunter Renfrow	40.0	9.7	0.00	0.10	3.2	58	20	52	35	41
Olamide Zaccheaus	40.2	13.7	0.00	-2.35	1.8	26	20	73	48	42
K.J. Osborn	40.2	9.0	0.00	-0.25	3.7	63	20	56	32	43
Trent Sherfield	40.5	8.8	0.00	1.28	0.7	64	20	41	51	44
D.J. Moore	38.5	12.2	0.00	-1.14	5.6	36	57	64	20	44
Cam Sims	41.0	6.3	0.00	4.09	-11.4	75	20	10	74	45
Demarcus Robinson	41.5	11.4	-0.11	0.86	5.3	42	74	46	22	46
Josh Reynolds	38.4	10.4	-0.04	3.37	0.4	51	67	16	53	47
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	38.7	8.2	0.00	1.14	-1.1	67	20	44	58	47
Isaiah McKenzie	41.5	12.6	0.01	-3.23	-8.4	34	18	75	70	49
Rondale Moore	41.3	10.7	0.00	-6.38	-0.4	44	20	78	56	50
Kendrick Bourne	54.8	12.0	-0.09	2.65	-1.1	39	73	27	59	50
Brandin Cooks	38.1	9.3	0.09	-1.37	-3.3	61	11	65	64	50
DeAndre Hopkins	42.5	18.2	-0.25	-2.31	2.9	9	78	72	42	50
Braxton Berrios	37.8	8.1	0.00	-2.18	2.6	69	20	70	44	51
Kalif Raymond	38.1	9.8	0.00	-4.11	1.1	57	20	77	50	51
Mike Thomas	40.9	5.4	0.00	1.53	-6.1	77	20	40	69	52
Gabriel Davis	42.0	10.4	-0.06	3.42	-4.7	54	71	15	67	52
Nelson Agholor	39.1	10.6	-0.01	1.59	-2.4	47	61	37	62	52
DeAndre Carter	42.0	10.2	0.00	-4.00	-0.7	55	20	76	57	52
Robert Woods	38.2	11.9	-0.06	-1.07	3.2	40	70	63	37	53
James Proche	41.6	8.6	0.00	0.62	-13.3	66	20	48	76	53
Van Jefferson	39.8	4.1	0.00	0.89	-8.6	78	20	45	71	54
Phillip Dorsett	38.2	7.4	0.09	-1.42	-6.0	71	10	66	68	54
Dee Eskridge	39.0	9.2	0.00	-2.38	-2.2	62	20	74	61	54
Shi Smith	38.9	6.4	0.00	0.10	-13.3	73	20	53	75	55
Chase Claypool	42.2	6.4	0.00	0.00	-20.2	74	20	54	78	57
Marquez Callaway	40.5	8.8	-0.08	2.36	-2.4	65	72	28	63	57
Chris Moore	38.0	7.4	-0.13	3.19	-11.2	70	75	19	72	59
Allen Robinson II	39.7	8.2	-0.24	2.78	-4.6	68	77	25	66	59
Quez Watkins	42.4	6.6	0.00	1.63	-16.2	72	54	36	77	60
A.J. Green	42.4	5.7	-0.03	2.82	-11.3	76	66	24	73	60

*Again, thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read), we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.

Legend

Snaps: estimated total dropback snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run.” Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs. the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.

Example:

Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run

This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)

*40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
*HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage.” Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB

*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e., you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this data point to populate)

Bonus Chart

With eight weeks of data, it’s time to look at coverage situations. Given how elastic certain DCs are with their schemes, not to mention the lack of predictability when it comes to DB performance, we find it best to “batch” coverages by:

Man (M) no blitz (Cover 0, 1 with 4 or less rushers)
Man BLITZ (Cover 0, 1 with 5 or more rushers)
Zone (Z) no blitz (Cover 2, 3, 4, or 6 with 4 or fewer rushers)
Zone BLITZ (Cover 2, 3, 4, or 6 with 5 or more rushers)

Then we run a comparison of Target SHARE CHANGE among those four categories. This is a slight, purposeful change from last week, as target share indicates how a QB operates given these circumstances. In other words, we want to find “who he goes to when blitzed.” The target share will get us closer there.

Notes

The first six columns represent how THAT WR performs
The 7th-9th columns represent how much this week’s opponent runs Man (vs. Zone) and Blitz (vs. not) compared to the league average in percentage points
The last 3 columns give an aggregate of how the WR performs relative to coverage and blitz schemes to expect

	WR Target Share CHANGES						Opponent
Player	MAN	ZONE	MAN BONUS	BLITZ	NOBLITZ	BLITZ BONUS	Opp	MAN Rate (ovr avg)	Blitz Rate (ovr avg)
Rashod Bateman	27%	25%	2%	15%	45%	-30%	Saints	14%	-11%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	33%	37%	-4%	11%	47%	-36%	Titans	-2%	-9%
Christian Watson	5%	6%	-1%	17%	0%	17%	Lions	7%	14%
Kalif Raymond	16%	25%	-9%	30%	17%	13%	Packers	14%	17%
Davante Adams	57%	52%	5%	75%	44%	31%	Jaguars	0%	4%
Allen Lazard	32%	28%	4%	37%	28%	9%	Lions	7%	14%
Breshad Perriman	19%	8%	10%	24%	9%	15%	Rams	-11%	8%
DeAndre Carter	10%	18%	-8%	7%	20%	-13%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
Braxton Berrios	6%	7%	-2%	-3%	9%	-11%	Bills	-9%	-10%
Darnell Mooney	48%	51%	-3%	59%	45%	14%	Dolphins	5%	7%
Ja’Marr Chase	44%	34%	10%	54%	35%	19%	Panthers	-4%	5%
JuJu Smith-Schuster	25%	30%	-5%	24%	32%	-9%	Titans	-2%	-9%
Brandon Powell	6%	1%	5%	8%	0%	8%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%
Juwann Winfree	6%	2%	4%	7%	2%	5%	Lions	7%	14%
DJ Chark	7%	29%	-22%	25%	20%	4%	Packers	14%	17%
Trent Sherfield	4%	9%	-5%	6%	12%	-6%	Bears	1%	-12%
DeAndre Hopkins	25%	13%	13%	11%	21%	-10%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Nico Collins	41%	23%	19%	48%	25%	23%	Eagles	8%	3%
Tutu Atwell	0%	15%	-15%	16%	9%	7%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%
Dyami Brown	14%	10%	4%	4%	16%	-12%	Vikings	-15%	-5%
Romeo Doubs	33%	22%	11%	30%	26%	4%	Lions	7%	14%
Julio Jones	2%	8%	-7%	14%	7%	7%	Rams	-11%	8%
Tyler Lockett	29%	42%	-13%	48%	40%	8%	Cardinals	-9%	7%
Jamison Crowder	4%	9%	-5%	4%	9%	-5%	Jets	-2%	-12%
Russell Gage	21%	6%	15%	15%	8%	7%	Rams	-11%	8%
DJ Moore	58%	70%	-12%	49%	66%	-17%	Bengals	8%	-3%
Marquise Brown	36%	48%	-12%	38%	45%	-7%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Michael Bandy	5%	9%	-4%	3%	9%	-6%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
Cooper Kupp	47%	50%	-2%	51%	46%	5%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%
Denzel Mims	0%	5%	-5%	0%	4%	-5%	Bills	-9%	-10%
Parris Campbell	10%	19%	-9%	3%	18%	-15%	Patriots	14%	-3%
James Proche	0%	9%	-9%	3%	7%	-4%	Saints	14%	-11%
Keenan Allen	0%	5%	-5%	0%	5%	-5%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
Chris Godwin	7%	20%	-13%	21%	15%	6%	Rams	-11%	8%
Curtis Samuel	24%	21%	3%	13%	22%	-8%	Vikings	-15%	-5%
Christian Kirk	31%	38%	-8%	28%	36%	-8%	Raiders	2%	-5%
Terrace Marshall Jr.	14%	15%	-1%	3%	17%	-14%	Bengals	8%	-3%
Kendrick Bourne	13%	9%	4%	10%	14%	-4%	Colts	1%	-11%
Dante Pettis	27%	10%	17%	21%	15%	6%	Dolphins	5%	7%
Andy Isabella	0%	6%	-6%	0%	5%	-5%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Jeff Smith	6%	2%	4%	0%	3%	-3%	Bills	-9%	-10%
Skyy Moore	8%	7%	1%	4%	8%	-4%	Titans	-2%	-9%
Tyquan Thornton	10%	9%	2%	5%	8%	-3%	Colts	1%	-11%
Khalil Shakir	8%	9%	0%	6%	8%	-2%	Jets	-2%	-12%
Jakobi Meyers	32%	27%	5%	29%	31%	-2%	Colts	1%	-11%
Tee Higgins	25%	30%	-5%	34%	29%	5%	Panthers	-4%	5%
Tom Kennedy	9%	4%	5%	7%	6%	1%	Packers	14%	17%
River Cracraft	0%	3%	-3%	0%	2%	-2%	Bears	1%	-12%
Stefon Diggs	53%	41%	12%	44%	46%	-2%	Jets	-2%	-12%
Dee Eskridge	12%	2%	10%	7%	4%	3%	Cardinals	-9%	7%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	23%	30%	-7%	12%	33%	-21%	Chiefs	-9%	-1%
Corey Davis	21%	33%	-12%	29%	31%	-2%	Bills	-9%	-10%
Michael Pittman Jr.	28%	27%	1%	24%	31%	-7%	Patriots	14%	-3%
Jason Moore	0%	2%	-2%	0%	2%	-2%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
A.J. Brown	57%	43%	14%	48%	52%	-4%	Texans	-8%	-5%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	0%	2%	-2%	4%	1%	3%	Dolphins	5%	7%
Zay Jones	25%	25%	0%	22%	26%	-4%	Raiders	2%	-5%
Demarcus Robinson	13%	34%	-21%	22%	23%	-2%	Saints	14%	-11%
Rondale Moore	8%	12%	-4%	7%	9%	-2%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Dezmon Patmon	1%	6%	-5%	0%	5%	-5%	Patriots	14%	-3%
DeVonta Smith	22%	42%	-19%	30%	33%	-3%	Texans	-8%	-5%
Treylon Burks	19%	20%	-1%	10%	24%	-14%	Chiefs	-9%	-1%
Josh Palmer	20%	27%	-7%	21%	22%	-2%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
Chris Conley	3%	0%	3%	4%	0%	4%	Eagles	8%	3%
Ashton Dulin	7%	18%	-10%	11%	15%	-4%	Patriots	14%	-3%
Drake London	56%	35%	21%	49%	38%	11%	Chargers	8%	1%
Jake Kumerow	0%	3%	-3%	3%	4%	-1%	Jets	-2%	-12%
K.J. Osborn	13%	13%	0%	11%	21%	-10%	Commanders	7%	-1%
Dax Milne	1%	2%	-1%	0%	2%	-2%	Vikings	-15%	-5%
DK Metcalf	44%	48%	-4%	45%	44%	1%	Cardinals	-9%	7%
Marquez Callaway	8%	12%	-5%	6%	16%	-9%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Elijah Moore	39%	22%	17%	26%	27%	-1%	Bills	-9%	-10%
Bryan Edwards	0%	3%	-3%	9%	1%	8%	Chargers	8%	1%
Jarvis Landry	4%	9%	-6%	5%	13%	-8%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Rashid Shaheed	0%	8%	-8%	0%	7%	-7%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Justin Jefferson	44%	48%	-5%	36%	43%	-6%	Commanders	7%	-1%
Jalen Guyton	0%	6%	-6%	6%	7%	-1%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
Tim Jones	0%	1%	-1%	-1%	0%	-1%	Raiders	2%	-5%
Isaiah Hodgins	2%	3%	-2%	1%	1%	0%	Jets	-2%	-12%
Laviska Shenault	0%	2%	-2%	0%	1%	-1%	Bengals	8%	-3%
Cedrick Wilson	0%	5%	-5%	4%	4%	0%	Bears	1%	-12%
Jalen Reagor	2%	0%	2%	0%	1%	-1%	Commanders	7%	-1%
Damiere Byrd	7%	25%	-19%	23%	22%	1%	Chargers	8%	1%
Mason Kinsey	0%	1%	-1%	0%	0%	0%	Chiefs	-9%	-1%
Michael Thomas	6%	12%	-5%	8%	9%	0%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Deonte Harty	0%	1%	-1%	0%	0%	0%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Tyler Johnson	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	Eagles	8%	3%
Van Jefferson	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%
Zach Pascal	3%	5%	-2%	4%	4%	0%	Texans	-8%	-5%
Hunter Renfrow	9%	11%	-2%	7%	7%	-1%	Jaguars	0%	4%
Keith Kirkwood	3%	0%	3%	3%	0%	3%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Lil’Jordan Humphrey	0%	3%	-3%	2%	1%	0%	Colts	1%	-11%
Chris Olave	52%	46%	6%	50%	45%	5%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Isaiah McKenzie	8%	8%	0%	8%	8%	0%	Jets	-2%	-12%
Jaelon Darden	3%	0%	3%	0%	1%	-1%	Rams	-11%	8%
Tre’Quan Smith	28%	9%	19%	19%	11%	8%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Chris Moore	14%	10%	5%	11%	13%	-3%	Eagles	8%	3%
Olamide Zaccheaus	18%	28%	-11%	19%	27%	-8%	Chargers	8%	1%
Kevin White	0%	3%	-3%	9%	0%	9%	Ravens	-3%	-1%
Cam Sims	8%	8%	0%	11%	9%	2%	Vikings	-15%	-5%
KhaDarel Hodge	19%	8%	12%	1%	12%	-11%	Chargers	8%	1%
Nelson Agholor	13%	20%	-7%	14%	13%	1%	Colts	1%	-11%
Cody Hollister	4%	8%	-4%	15%	4%	11%	Chiefs	-9%	-1%
Robert Woods	35%	32%	3%	42%	30%	12%	Chiefs	-9%	-1%
Kyle Philips	19%	6%	12%	21%	7%	15%	Chiefs	-9%	-1%
Quintez Cephus	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	-1%	Packers	14%	17%
Adam Thielen	41%	39%	2%	52%	36%	17%	Commanders	7%	-1%
Shi Smith	28%	13%	15%	22%	15%	7%	Bengals	8%	-3%
Jamal Agnew	14%	4%	9%	10%	5%	5%	Raiders	2%	-5%
N’Keal Harry	4%	2%	1%	0%	3%	-3%	Dolphins	5%	7%
Andre Baccellia	3%	2%	1%	5%	2%	3%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Mike Thomas	10%	6%	4%	3%	8%	-5%	Panthers	-4%	5%
Tylan Wallace	2%	10%	-8%	9%	7%	3%	Saints	14%	-11%
Michael Strachan	6%	5%	1%	14%	4%	10%	Patriots	14%	-3%
Quez Watkins	18%	10%	7%	18%	12%	6%	Texans	-8%	-5%
Jahan Dotson	14%	17%	-3%	21%	15%	6%	Vikings	-15%	-5%
Phillip Dorsett	7%	17%	-10%	5%	16%	-11%	Eagles	8%	3%
Jaylen Waddle	30%	35%	-5%	33%	30%	3%	Bears	1%	-12%
Marvin Jones	31%	32%	-1%	41%	33%	8%	Raiders	2%	-5%
Brandin Cooks	34%	50%	-17%	31%	45%	-14%	Eagles	8%	3%
Byron Pringle	0%	7%	-7%	0%	6%	-6%	Dolphins	5%	7%
Keelan Cole	10%	7%	2%	0%	13%	-13%	Jaguars	0%	4%
Greg Dortch	5%	9%	-4%	14%	6%	8%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Alec Pierce	48%	25%	23%	49%	27%	21%	Patriots	14%	-3%
Equanimeous St. Brown	12%	29%	-17%	16%	25%	-9%	Dolphins	5%	7%
Terry McLaurin	41%	42%	-2%	51%	37%	14%	Vikings	-15%	-5%
Mack Hollins	25%	30%	-6%	18%	35%	-17%	Jaguars	0%	4%
Tyreek Hill	66%	47%	19%	57%	51%	6%	Bears	1%	-12%
DeVante Parker	31%	32%	-1%	39%	32%	7%	Colts	1%	-11%
Samouri Toure	0%	10%	-10%	0%	6%	-6%	Lions	7%	14%
Marquise Goodwin	16%	7%	8%	1%	13%	-12%	Cardinals	-9%	7%
Tyler Boyd	20%	28%	-7%	10%	27%	-17%	Panthers	-4%	5%
Amon-Ra St. Brown	22%	17%	5%	13%	18%	-5%	Packers	14%	17%
A.J. Green	23%	10%	13%	25%	12%	13%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%
Ben Skowronek	14%	17%	-3%	10%	19%	-9%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%
Gabriel Davis	23%	27%	-4%	32%	25%	8%	Jets	-2%	-12%
Amari Rodgers	0%	8%	-8%	0%	7%	-7%	Lions	7%	14%
Scotty Miller	12%	17%	-4%	5%	18%	-12%	Rams	-11%	8%
Allen Robinson	32%	17%	15%	15%	26%	-10%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%
Randall Cobb	16%	14%	2%	9%	19%	-10%	Lions	7%	14%
Justin Watson	10%	10%	0%	21%	4%	17%	Titans	-2%	-9%
Mike Evans	35%	41%	-6%	20%	43%	-23%	Rams	-11%	8%
Sammy Watkins	8%	11%	-3%	0%	13%	-13%	Lions	7%	14%
Josh Reynolds	43%	24%	19%	26%	38%	-12%	Packers	14%	17%
Garrett Wilson	28%	31%	-2%	48%	25%	22%	Bills	-9%	-10%
Mike Williams	65%	32%	32%	62%	34%	28%	Falcons	-2%	-9%
Mecole Hardman	23%	16%	7%	40%	9%	31%	Titans	-2%	-9%
Devin Duvernay	58%	22%	36%	51%	18%	33%	Saints	14%	-11%

*Thanks to SIS and their datahub for the stats
**All data was taken ONLY during the first 3 quarters, first 3 downs, middle 80 yards of the field, and game scripts within +/-16 points

WR Matchups to Target in Week 9

*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Our secondary model is very excited about MVS this week. It’s no secret that he and QB Mahomes have found some chemistry in the last couple of games, but we are more excited about his matchup this week. You will notice on the second chart that his target share is only 11% when a defense brings a blitz, yet a whopping 47% when the defense only rushes four or fewer. For what it is worth, this is the inverse for Mecole Hardman, but it tells us that MVS is Mahomes’s guy when NOT blitzed. Take that and the fact the Titans blitz 9% points less than average in the NFL, and we are all over MVS this week.

Devin Duvernay

Duvernay has had a bit of an up-and-down season. However, we believe we found a variable to help predict when those “bang” (vs. bust) games will come: Man Coverage. Duvernay owns a measly 22% target share in zone but almost triples that to 58% vs. Man. Given that their opponent, the Saints, run man 14% points higher than the league average, Duvernay should be in for a great game.

Alec Pierce

Pierce comes into the week with multiple models pointing upward. For starters, using our base model, we find that Pierce has a top 20 matchup in height, speed, and net PFF grade. This is heavily weighted toward an expected matchup vs. Jalen Mills (52% pass snaps expected), giving up 3 inches (75 vs. 72), .2 in the 40 (4.41 vs. 4.61), and a PFF grade of 65.8 vs. 35.8. Additionally, similar to Duvernay above, Pierce’s target share spikes (48 vs. 25%) when he faces man coverage, and the Patriots deploy Cover 1/0 14% more than league average.

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 9

Allen Robinson

Robinson has not had the start to the season most drafters hoped. Despite this, he is getting a bit of a bump, given the Cooper Kupp injury. However, our models do not like the matchup this week. To be fair, it’s hard to peg down a MOST likely cover man he will go up against this week, but our numbers show a 37% expected pass share vs. Jamel Dean. Dean has an 83.1 PFF grade, vs. Robinson’s 62.2. And this is all, not to mention a strong speed advantage and only a 2-inch height difference.

DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins draws rookie Tariq Woolen in this week’s matchup (estimated 77% pass snaps). Given the PFF scores come close to a wash, believe it or not, this is mainly a “physical mismatch.” Woolen brings 76 inches of height and a blazing 4.26 40-yard dash. Both numbers could be enough to neutralize Hopkins’ 73 inches and 4.57 40.

We’re hoping to get back in the win column this week. Here’s to a perfect lineup!

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

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WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 9 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Week 8 Results

Week 8 Results

Season Scorecard

Week 9 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard

Legend

Bonus Chart

Notes

WR Matchups to Target in Week 9

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 9

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