We are officially at the halfway point of the season. As we have noted before, between the extreme levels of parity across the board and offensive production being on a downswing, it’s more important than ever to find value in our WR selections for the week. The hope is the models below will help you get there. Let’s jump right in.
Week 8 Results
After a very strong week 7, we returned to earth with our first losing week on the season.
*Injured
We are officially at the halfway point of the season. As we have noted before, between the extreme levels of parity across the board and offensive production being on a downswing, it’s more important than ever to find value in our WR selections for the week. The hope is the models below will help you get there. Let’s jump right in.
Week 8 Results
After a very strong week 7, we returned to earth with our first losing week on the season.
*Injured
Season Scorecard
Season Record: 33-20
*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR
Week 9 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard
*Again, thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read), we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.
Legend
- Snaps: estimated total dropback snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
- Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run.” Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs. the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.
Example:
- Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
- DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
- DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
- DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run
This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)
- *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
- *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
- nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage.” Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB
*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e., you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this data point to populate)
Bonus Chart
With eight weeks of data, it’s time to look at coverage situations. Given how elastic certain DCs are with their schemes, not to mention the lack of predictability when it comes to DB performance, we find it best to “batch” coverages by:
- Man (M) no blitz (Cover 0, 1 with 4 or less rushers)
- Man BLITZ (Cover 0, 1 with 5 or more rushers)
- Zone (Z) no blitz (Cover 2, 3, 4, or 6 with 4 or fewer rushers)
- Zone BLITZ (Cover 2, 3, 4, or 6 with 5 or more rushers)
Then we run a comparison of Target SHARE CHANGE among those four categories. This is a slight, purposeful change from last week, as target share indicates how a QB operates given these circumstances. In other words, we want to find “who he goes to when blitzed.” The target share will get us closer there.
Notes
- The first six columns represent how THAT WR performs
- The 7th-9th columns represent how much this week’s opponent runs Man (vs. Zone) and Blitz (vs. not) compared to the league average in percentage points
- The last 3 columns give an aggregate of how the WR performs relative to coverage and blitz schemes to expect
|
WR Target Share CHANGES |
Opponent |
| Player |
MAN |
ZONE |
MAN BONUS |
BLITZ |
NOBLITZ |
BLITZ BONUS |
Opp |
MAN Rate (ovr avg) |
Blitz Rate (ovr avg) |
| Rashod Bateman |
27% |
25% |
2% |
15% |
45% |
-30% |
Saints |
14% |
-11% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling |
33% |
37% |
-4% |
11% |
47% |
-36% |
Titans |
-2% |
-9% |
| Christian Watson |
5% |
6% |
-1% |
17% |
0% |
17% |
Lions |
7% |
14% |
| Kalif Raymond |
16% |
25% |
-9% |
30% |
17% |
13% |
Packers |
14% |
17% |
| Davante Adams |
57% |
52% |
5% |
75% |
44% |
31% |
Jaguars |
0% |
4% |
| Allen Lazard |
32% |
28% |
4% |
37% |
28% |
9% |
Lions |
7% |
14% |
| Breshad Perriman |
19% |
8% |
10% |
24% |
9% |
15% |
Rams |
-11% |
8% |
| DeAndre Carter |
10% |
18% |
-8% |
7% |
20% |
-13% |
Falcons |
-2% |
-9% |
| Braxton Berrios |
6% |
7% |
-2% |
-3% |
9% |
-11% |
Bills |
-9% |
-10% |
| Darnell Mooney |
48% |
51% |
-3% |
59% |
45% |
14% |
Dolphins |
5% |
7% |
| Ja’Marr Chase |
44% |
34% |
10% |
54% |
35% |
19% |
Panthers |
-4% |
5% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster |
25% |
30% |
-5% |
24% |
32% |
-9% |
Titans |
-2% |
-9% |
| Brandon Powell |
6% |
1% |
5% |
8% |
0% |
8% |
Buccaneers |
-6% |
10% |
| Juwann Winfree |
6% |
2% |
4% |
7% |
2% |
5% |
Lions |
7% |
14% |
| DJ Chark |
7% |
29% |
-22% |
25% |
20% |
4% |
Packers |
14% |
17% |
| Trent Sherfield |
4% |
9% |
-5% |
6% |
12% |
-6% |
Bears |
1% |
-12% |
| DeAndre Hopkins |
25% |
13% |
13% |
11% |
21% |
-10% |
Seahawks |
-2% |
-7% |
| Nico Collins |
41% |
23% |
19% |
48% |
25% |
23% |
Eagles |
8% |
3% |
| Tutu Atwell |
0% |
15% |
-15% |
16% |
9% |
7% |
Buccaneers |
-6% |
10% |
| Dyami Brown |
14% |
10% |
4% |
4% |
16% |
-12% |
Vikings |
-15% |
-5% |
| Romeo Doubs |
33% |
22% |
11% |
30% |
26% |
4% |
Lions |
7% |
14% |
| Julio Jones |
2% |
8% |
-7% |
14% |
7% |
7% |
Rams |
-11% |
8% |
| Tyler Lockett |
29% |
42% |
-13% |
48% |
40% |
8% |
Cardinals |
-9% |
7% |
| Jamison Crowder |
4% |
9% |
-5% |
4% |
9% |
-5% |
Jets |
-2% |
-12% |
| Russell Gage |
21% |
6% |
15% |
15% |
8% |
7% |
Rams |
-11% |
8% |
| DJ Moore |
58% |
70% |
-12% |
49% |
66% |
-17% |
Bengals |
8% |
-3% |
| Marquise Brown |
36% |
48% |
-12% |
38% |
45% |
-7% |
Seahawks |
-2% |
-7% |
| Michael Bandy |
5% |
9% |
-4% |
3% |
9% |
-6% |
Falcons |
-2% |
-9% |
| Cooper Kupp |
47% |
50% |
-2% |
51% |
46% |
5% |
Buccaneers |
-6% |
10% |
| Denzel Mims |
0% |
5% |
-5% |
0% |
4% |
-5% |
Bills |
-9% |
-10% |
| Parris Campbell |
10% |
19% |
-9% |
3% |
18% |
-15% |
Patriots |
14% |
-3% |
| James Proche |
0% |
9% |
-9% |
3% |
7% |
-4% |
Saints |
14% |
-11% |
| Keenan Allen |
0% |
5% |
-5% |
0% |
5% |
-5% |
Falcons |
-2% |
-9% |
| Chris Godwin |
7% |
20% |
-13% |
21% |
15% |
6% |
Rams |
-11% |
8% |
| Curtis Samuel |
24% |
21% |
3% |
13% |
22% |
-8% |
Vikings |
-15% |
-5% |
| Christian Kirk |
31% |
38% |
-8% |
28% |
36% |
-8% |
Raiders |
2% |
-5% |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. |
14% |
15% |
-1% |
3% |
17% |
-14% |
Bengals |
8% |
-3% |
| Kendrick Bourne |
13% |
9% |
4% |
10% |
14% |
-4% |
Colts |
1% |
-11% |
| Dante Pettis |
27% |
10% |
17% |
21% |
15% |
6% |
Dolphins |
5% |
7% |
| Andy Isabella |
0% |
6% |
-6% |
0% |
5% |
-5% |
Seahawks |
-2% |
-7% |
| Jeff Smith |
6% |
2% |
4% |
0% |
3% |
-3% |
Bills |
-9% |
-10% |
| Skyy Moore |
8% |
7% |
1% |
4% |
8% |
-4% |
Titans |
-2% |
-9% |
| Tyquan Thornton |
10% |
9% |
2% |
5% |
8% |
-3% |
Colts |
1% |
-11% |
| Khalil Shakir |
8% |
9% |
0% |
6% |
8% |
-2% |
Jets |
-2% |
-12% |
| Jakobi Meyers |
32% |
27% |
5% |
29% |
31% |
-2% |
Colts |
1% |
-11% |
| Tee Higgins |
25% |
30% |
-5% |
34% |
29% |
5% |
Panthers |
-4% |
5% |
| Tom Kennedy |
9% |
4% |
5% |
7% |
6% |
1% |
Packers |
14% |
17% |
| River Cracraft |
0% |
3% |
-3% |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
Bears |
1% |
-12% |
| Stefon Diggs |
53% |
41% |
12% |
44% |
46% |
-2% |
Jets |
-2% |
-12% |
| Dee Eskridge |
12% |
2% |
10% |
7% |
4% |
3% |
Cardinals |
-9% |
7% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine |
23% |
30% |
-7% |
12% |
33% |
-21% |
Chiefs |
-9% |
-1% |
| Corey Davis |
21% |
33% |
-12% |
29% |
31% |
-2% |
Bills |
-9% |
-10% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. |
28% |
27% |
1% |
24% |
31% |
-7% |
Patriots |
14% |
-3% |
| Jason Moore |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
Falcons |
-2% |
-9% |
| A.J. Brown |
57% |
43% |
14% |
48% |
52% |
-4% |
Texans |
-8% |
-5% |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
4% |
1% |
3% |
Dolphins |
5% |
7% |
| Zay Jones |
25% |
25% |
0% |
22% |
26% |
-4% |
Raiders |
2% |
-5% |
| Demarcus Robinson |
13% |
34% |
-21% |
22% |
23% |
-2% |
Saints |
14% |
-11% |
| Rondale Moore |
8% |
12% |
-4% |
7% |
9% |
-2% |
Seahawks |
-2% |
-7% |
| Dezmon Patmon |
1% |
6% |
-5% |
0% |
5% |
-5% |
Patriots |
14% |
-3% |
| DeVonta Smith |
22% |
42% |
-19% |
30% |
33% |
-3% |
Texans |
-8% |
-5% |
| Treylon Burks |
19% |
20% |
-1% |
10% |
24% |
-14% |
Chiefs |
-9% |
-1% |
| Josh Palmer |
20% |
27% |
-7% |
21% |
22% |
-2% |
Falcons |
-2% |
-9% |
| Chris Conley |
3% |
0% |
3% |
4% |
0% |
4% |
Eagles |
8% |
3% |
| Ashton Dulin |
7% |
18% |
-10% |
11% |
15% |
-4% |
Patriots |
14% |
-3% |
| Drake London |
56% |
35% |
21% |
49% |
38% |
11% |
Chargers |
8% |
1% |
| Jake Kumerow |
0% |
3% |
-3% |
3% |
4% |
-1% |
Jets |
-2% |
-12% |
| K.J. Osborn |
13% |
13% |
0% |
11% |
21% |
-10% |
Commanders |
7% |
-1% |
| Dax Milne |
1% |
2% |
-1% |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
Vikings |
-15% |
-5% |
| DK Metcalf |
44% |
48% |
-4% |
45% |
44% |
1% |
Cardinals |
-9% |
7% |
| Marquez Callaway |
8% |
12% |
-5% |
6% |
16% |
-9% |
Ravens |
-3% |
-1% |
| Elijah Moore |
39% |
22% |
17% |
26% |
27% |
-1% |
Bills |
-9% |
-10% |
| Bryan Edwards |
0% |
3% |
-3% |
9% |
1% |
8% |
Chargers |
8% |
1% |
| Jarvis Landry |
4% |
9% |
-6% |
5% |
13% |
-8% |
Ravens |
-3% |
-1% |
| Rashid Shaheed |
0% |
8% |
-8% |
0% |
7% |
-7% |
Ravens |
-3% |
-1% |
| Justin Jefferson |
44% |
48% |
-5% |
36% |
43% |
-6% |
Commanders |
7% |
-1% |
| Jalen Guyton |
0% |
6% |
-6% |
6% |
7% |
-1% |
Falcons |
-2% |
-9% |
| Tim Jones |
0% |
1% |
-1% |
-1% |
0% |
-1% |
Raiders |
2% |
-5% |
| Isaiah Hodgins |
2% |
3% |
-2% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
Jets |
-2% |
-12% |
| Laviska Shenault |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
0% |
1% |
-1% |
Bengals |
8% |
-3% |
| Cedrick Wilson |
0% |
5% |
-5% |
4% |
4% |
0% |
Bears |
1% |
-12% |
| Jalen Reagor |
2% |
0% |
2% |
0% |
1% |
-1% |
Commanders |
7% |
-1% |
| Damiere Byrd |
7% |
25% |
-19% |
23% |
22% |
1% |
Chargers |
8% |
1% |
| Mason Kinsey |
0% |
1% |
-1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Chiefs |
-9% |
-1% |
| Michael Thomas |
6% |
12% |
-5% |
8% |
9% |
0% |
Ravens |
-3% |
-1% |
| Deonte Harty |
0% |
1% |
-1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Ravens |
-3% |
-1% |
| Tyler Johnson |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Eagles |
8% |
3% |
| Van Jefferson |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Buccaneers |
-6% |
10% |
| Zach Pascal |
3% |
5% |
-2% |
4% |
4% |
0% |
Texans |
-8% |
-5% |
| Hunter Renfrow |
9% |
11% |
-2% |
7% |
7% |
-1% |
Jaguars |
0% |
4% |
| Keith Kirkwood |
3% |
0% |
3% |
3% |
0% |
3% |
Ravens |
-3% |
-1% |
| Lil’Jordan Humphrey |
0% |
3% |
-3% |
2% |
1% |
0% |
Colts |
1% |
-11% |
| Chris Olave |
52% |
46% |
6% |
50% |
45% |
5% |
Ravens |
-3% |
-1% |
| Isaiah McKenzie |
8% |
8% |
0% |
8% |
8% |
0% |
Jets |
-2% |
-12% |
| Jaelon Darden |
3% |
0% |
3% |
0% |
1% |
-1% |
Rams |
-11% |
8% |
| Tre’Quan Smith |
28% |
9% |
19% |
19% |
11% |
8% |
Ravens |
-3% |
-1% |
| Chris Moore |
14% |
10% |
5% |
11% |
13% |
-3% |
Eagles |
8% |
3% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus |
18% |
28% |
-11% |
19% |
27% |
-8% |
Chargers |
8% |
1% |
| Kevin White |
0% |
3% |
-3% |
9% |
0% |
9% |
Ravens |
-3% |
-1% |
| Cam Sims |
8% |
8% |
0% |
11% |
9% |
2% |
Vikings |
-15% |
-5% |
| KhaDarel Hodge |
19% |
8% |
12% |
1% |
12% |
-11% |
Chargers |
8% |
1% |
| Nelson Agholor |
13% |
20% |
-7% |
14% |
13% |
1% |
Colts |
1% |
-11% |
| Cody Hollister |
4% |
8% |
-4% |
15% |
4% |
11% |
Chiefs |
-9% |
-1% |
| Robert Woods |
35% |
32% |
3% |
42% |
30% |
12% |
Chiefs |
-9% |
-1% |
| Kyle Philips |
19% |
6% |
12% |
21% |
7% |
15% |
Chiefs |
-9% |
-1% |
| Quintez Cephus |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
-1% |
Packers |
14% |
17% |
| Adam Thielen |
41% |
39% |
2% |
52% |
36% |
17% |
Commanders |
7% |
-1% |
| Shi Smith |
28% |
13% |
15% |
22% |
15% |
7% |
Bengals |
8% |
-3% |
| Jamal Agnew |
14% |
4% |
9% |
10% |
5% |
5% |
Raiders |
2% |
-5% |
| N’Keal Harry |
4% |
2% |
1% |
0% |
3% |
-3% |
Dolphins |
5% |
7% |
| Andre Baccellia |
3% |
2% |
1% |
5% |
2% |
3% |
Seahawks |
-2% |
-7% |
| Mike Thomas |
10% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
8% |
-5% |
Panthers |
-4% |
5% |
| Tylan Wallace |
2% |
10% |
-8% |
9% |
7% |
3% |
Saints |
14% |
-11% |
| Michael Strachan |
6% |
5% |
1% |
14% |
4% |
10% |
Patriots |
14% |
-3% |
| Quez Watkins |
18% |
10% |
7% |
18% |
12% |
6% |
Texans |
-8% |
-5% |
| Jahan Dotson |
14% |
17% |
-3% |
21% |
15% |
6% |
Vikings |
-15% |
-5% |
| Phillip Dorsett |
7% |
17% |
-10% |
5% |
16% |
-11% |
Eagles |
8% |
3% |
| Jaylen Waddle |
30% |
35% |
-5% |
33% |
30% |
3% |
Bears |
1% |
-12% |
| Marvin Jones |
31% |
32% |
-1% |
41% |
33% |
8% |
Raiders |
2% |
-5% |
| Brandin Cooks |
34% |
50% |
-17% |
31% |
45% |
-14% |
Eagles |
8% |
3% |
| Byron Pringle |
0% |
7% |
-7% |
0% |
6% |
-6% |
Dolphins |
5% |
7% |
| Keelan Cole |
10% |
7% |
2% |
0% |
13% |
-13% |
Jaguars |
0% |
4% |
| Greg Dortch |
5% |
9% |
-4% |
14% |
6% |
8% |
Seahawks |
-2% |
-7% |
| Alec Pierce |
48% |
25% |
23% |
49% |
27% |
21% |
Patriots |
14% |
-3% |
| Equanimeous St. Brown |
12% |
29% |
-17% |
16% |
25% |
-9% |
Dolphins |
5% |
7% |
| Terry McLaurin |
41% |
42% |
-2% |
51% |
37% |
14% |
Vikings |
-15% |
-5% |
| Mack Hollins |
25% |
30% |
-6% |
18% |
35% |
-17% |
Jaguars |
0% |
4% |
| Tyreek Hill |
66% |
47% |
19% |
57% |
51% |
6% |
Bears |
1% |
-12% |
| DeVante Parker |
31% |
32% |
-1% |
39% |
32% |
7% |
Colts |
1% |
-11% |
| Samouri Toure |
0% |
10% |
-10% |
0% |
6% |
-6% |
Lions |
7% |
14% |
| Marquise Goodwin |
16% |
7% |
8% |
1% |
13% |
-12% |
Cardinals |
-9% |
7% |
| Tyler Boyd |
20% |
28% |
-7% |
10% |
27% |
-17% |
Panthers |
-4% |
5% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown |
22% |
17% |
5% |
13% |
18% |
-5% |
Packers |
14% |
17% |
| A.J. Green |
23% |
10% |
13% |
25% |
12% |
13% |
Seahawks |
-2% |
-7% |
| Ben Skowronek |
14% |
17% |
-3% |
10% |
19% |
-9% |
Buccaneers |
-6% |
10% |
| Gabriel Davis |
23% |
27% |
-4% |
32% |
25% |
8% |
Jets |
-2% |
-12% |
| Amari Rodgers |
0% |
8% |
-8% |
0% |
7% |
-7% |
Lions |
7% |
14% |
| Scotty Miller |
12% |
17% |
-4% |
5% |
18% |
-12% |
Rams |
-11% |
8% |
| Allen Robinson |
32% |
17% |
15% |
15% |
26% |
-10% |
Buccaneers |
-6% |
10% |
| Randall Cobb |
16% |
14% |
2% |
9% |
19% |
-10% |
Lions |
7% |
14% |
| Justin Watson |
10% |
10% |
0% |
21% |
4% |
17% |
Titans |
-2% |
-9% |
| Mike Evans |
35% |
41% |
-6% |
20% |
43% |
-23% |
Rams |
-11% |
8% |
| Sammy Watkins |
8% |
11% |
-3% |
0% |
13% |
-13% |
Lions |
7% |
14% |
| Josh Reynolds |
43% |
24% |
19% |
26% |
38% |
-12% |
Packers |
14% |
17% |
| Garrett Wilson |
28% |
31% |
-2% |
48% |
25% |
22% |
Bills |
-9% |
-10% |
| Mike Williams |
65% |
32% |
32% |
62% |
34% |
28% |
Falcons |
-2% |
-9% |
| Mecole Hardman |
23% |
16% |
7% |
40% |
9% |
31% |
Titans |
-2% |
-9% |
| Devin Duvernay |
58% |
22% |
36% |
51% |
18% |
33% |
Saints |
14% |
-11% |
*Thanks to SIS and their datahub for the stats
**All data was taken ONLY during the first 3 quarters, first 3 downs, middle 80 yards of the field, and game scripts within +/-16 points
WR Matchups to Target in Week 9
*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Our secondary model is very excited about MVS this week. It’s no secret that he and QB Mahomes have found some chemistry in the last couple of games, but we are more excited about his matchup this week. You will notice on the second chart that his target share is only 11% when a defense brings a blitz, yet a whopping 47% when the defense only rushes four or fewer. For what it is worth, this is the inverse for Mecole Hardman, but it tells us that MVS is Mahomes’s guy when NOT blitzed. Take that and the fact the Titans blitz 9% points less than average in the NFL, and we are all over MVS this week.
Devin Duvernay
Duvernay has had a bit of an up-and-down season. However, we believe we found a variable to help predict when those “bang” (vs. bust) games will come: Man Coverage. Duvernay owns a measly 22% target share in zone but almost triples that to 58% vs. Man. Given that their opponent, the Saints, run man 14% points higher than the league average, Duvernay should be in for a great game.
Alec Pierce
Pierce comes into the week with multiple models pointing upward. For starters, using our base model, we find that Pierce has a top 20 matchup in height, speed, and net PFF grade. This is heavily weighted toward an expected matchup vs. Jalen Mills (52% pass snaps expected), giving up 3 inches (75 vs. 72), .2 in the 40 (4.41 vs. 4.61), and a PFF grade of 65.8 vs. 35.8. Additionally, similar to Duvernay above, Pierce’s target share spikes (48 vs. 25%) when he faces man coverage, and the Patriots deploy Cover 1/0 14% more than league average.
WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 9
Allen Robinson
Robinson has not had the start to the season most drafters hoped. Despite this, he is getting a bit of a bump, given the Cooper Kupp injury. However, our models do not like the matchup this week. To be fair, it’s hard to peg down a MOST likely cover man he will go up against this week, but our numbers show a 37% expected pass share vs. Jamel Dean. Dean has an 83.1 PFF grade, vs. Robinson’s 62.2. And this is all, not to mention a strong speed advantage and only a 2-inch height difference.
DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins draws rookie Tariq Woolen in this week’s matchup (estimated 77% pass snaps). Given the PFF scores come close to a wash, believe it or not, this is mainly a “physical mismatch.” Woolen brings 76 inches of height and a blazing 4.26 40-yard dash. Both numbers could be enough to neutralize Hopkins’ 73 inches and 4.57 40.
We’re hoping to get back in the win column this week. Here’s to a perfect lineup!
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