The Eagles are massive favorites against the lowly Texans. As a result, Philadelphia is featured prominently among the suggested players below, and Houston has only a few players featured. The final thoughts are also Philadelphia-centric.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans
Spread: PHI -14.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
The Eagles are massive favorites against the lowly Texans. As a result, Philadelphia is featured prominently among the suggested players below, and Houston has only a few players featured. The final thoughts are also Philadelphia-centric.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans
Spread: PHI -14.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Eagles Analysis: Jalen Hurts is in the MVP discussion. He does it all. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Hurts is ninth in passing yards per game (257.0), fourth in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (7.86 ANY/A), 43rd in rushing yards per game (43.3) and tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns (six). The dual-threat quarterback also has 10 touchdown passes. The do-it-all quarterback is the crown jewel of the Thursday Night Football showdown slate.
A.J. Brown is his trustee No.1 wideout. The former Titan exploded for six receptions, 156 yards and three touchdowns last week. Brown also has at least five receptions and 67 receiving yards six times in seven games. The superstar wideout averages 5.6 receptions and 94.1 receiving yards per game and has five touchdowns.
Brown is also a stud in underlying metrics. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), he's fourth in Target Share (31.4%). Further, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Brown is third in Yards per Route Run (2.87 Y/RR) out of 62 wideouts targeted at least 30 times in 2022.
The matchup is mouthwatering for Brown, too. According to Football Outsiders, No. 1 receivers torch the Texans for the seventh-most receiving yards per game (83.0). So, this is a blow-up spot for Brown. Conversely, No. 2 wideouts average the third-fewest receiving yards per game (32.8) against Houston. Thus, gamers can fade DeVonta Smith.
Dallas Goedert is the second-best pass-catching option on the Eagles in this game. He's efficiently secured 32 of 41 targets and averages 4.6 receptions and 60.1 receiving yards per game. Goedert is also a monster after the catch. Per SIS, he has the third-most Yards After the Catch (317), despite Philadelphia already having their bye. Unfortunately, Goedert has only one touchdown this season. Still, the rest of Goedert's profile is attractive, and his salary is palatable.
Quez Watkins is the dart-throw option in Philadelphia's passing attack. Gamers who only check the box scores might be compelled to jump on Zach Pascal after he had two receptions for 57 yards and a touchdown last week. However, Watkins runs more routes than Pascal and has the speed for stretching the field. In Philadelphia's last three games, Watkins has run 71 routes versus just 20 for Pascal.
Might the Eagles flip their roles because Pascal had a nice showing last week? Maybe. But, again, Watkins has elite speed that defenses must account for, and Pascal is relatively slow. Finally, the matchup is theoretically good for Watkins hitting a home-run reception. According to numberFire, excluding Malik Willis's two incomplete passes that traveled at least 15 Air Yards against the Texans in his first NFL start last week, opposing quarterbacks have completed 22 of 44 passes that traveled at least 15 Air Yards for 559 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions. Meanwhile, Hurts has completed 19 of 36 passes that traveled at least 15 Air Yards for 605 yards, five touchdowns and one interception.
Miles Sanders joins Hurts and Brown as an elite selection in this matchup. Running backs have eviscerated the Texans this season, as Ian Hartitz pointed out on Twitter.
Sanders is running the ball well, averaging 80.4 rushing yards per game and splashing paydirt five times in 2022. He's rushed at least 15 times in five games. And in the two outlier contests, Sanders rushed for 96 and 78 yards, scoring a touchdown in both. It's a smash spot for Sanders.
Texans Analysis: Using a running back who isn't a monster in the passing game and plays for a 14.0-point underdog isn't typically advisable. However, Dameon Pierce has thrived as a rookie and can pay off for risk-taking gamers if the Texans hang around longer than expected.
Pierce averages 77.0 rushing yards per game and chips in 2.9 receptions and 14.0 receiving yards per game. The rookie running back also pops in PFF's advanced measures. He's eighth in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.80 YCO/A) and second in Missed Tackles Forced (41 MTF) out of 50 running backs with at least 40 rush attempts this year.
Fortunately, he might not have the toughest sledding this week. First, according to Football Outsiders, the Eagles are 22nd in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Second, run-stuffing rookie nose tackle Jordan Davis is out. Per PFF, Davis is the eighth-best run-defending interior defensive lineman out of 145 who've played at least 75 snaps this year.
Pierce is also not in danger of getting phased out in a negative game script. He's run 32 routes and played 39 passing snaps compared to 27 and 31 for Rex Burkhead in the last two weeks. The Eagles are also roughly an average matchup for running backs in the passing game.
Houston uses all three of their tight ends. Since Week 7, Jordan Akins has run 35 routes, Brevin Jordan has run 33 and O.J. Howard has run 17. Jordan led the group in targets (eight) but inefficiently had two receptions and the fewest receiving yards (19) among the trio. Conversely, Akins efficiently reeled in all four of his targets for a group-high 73 yards. Finally, Howard had two receptions for 24 yards.
The matchup is slightly above-average for Houston's tight ends. Tight ends average 52.8 receiving yards per game against the Eagles, a pinch more than the league average (50.6). Akins is my favorite of Houston's tight ends, but I don't have strong convictions about any of them. As a result, they're all usable.
Final Thoughts: Hurts is the best captain/MVP. However, Brown and Sanders also have compelling cases for the spot. It will be chalky to build unbalanced teams with four or five Eagles, but that's my preferred build. However, Pierce might be slightly undervalued because of the projected negative game script. He's a tougher pill to swallow at his salary on FanDuel, but it's easier to squeeze him into rosters on DraftKings. Entirely punting off the Texans and using only one of their tight ends with the Eagles in all the other roster spots is a stellar move as well.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
