The Ravens have a few significant injuries to navigate, and the Saints have shown the ability to put points on the board. The dynamics are interesting for this showdown slate, and the following suggestions have a stars and scrubs vibe.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints
Spread: BAL -2.0 Points
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Ravens Analysis: Lamar Jackson carries the load for Baltimore's offense. Unfortunately, he's without Rashod Bateman for the rest of the season and Mark Andrews for tonight's contest. As a result, Jackson has a decided lack of weapons to throw to, creating some risk that the offense faceplants and making him a candidate to fade. However, Jackson's legs are a weapon, and the Ravens could conceivably ask more of him as a runner.
According to Football Outsiders, the Saints are 11th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 12th in rush defense DVOA. So, they're not a pushover, but they're not elite. Jackson has the juice to make big plays, but his play in games without Bateman or when the second-year wideout left early has been merely adequate. In those three games, Jackson passed for 622 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. The dual-threat quarterback also rushed 22 times for 178 scoreless yards. Thus, Jackson is a stellar option but not a must-use pick.
Devin Duvernay is Baltimore's most explosive playmaker in their passing attack, but he's struggled in the three-game sample cited above, hauling in 10 receptions for 99 scoreless yards. Therefore, fading him is a wise move.
Instead, gamers should spin down to some of Baltimore's more affordable options. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Demarcus Robinson ran the most routes (75) in Week 5, Week 6 and Week 8. However, he's questionable. Isaiah Likely and James Proche ran 56 and 47 routes, the next most among healthy wideouts and tight ends.
Likely had a breakout performance last week. The rookie tight end had six receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown. Sadly, he has a challenging matchup this week. According to Football Outsiders, tight ends have the second-fewest yards per game (30.7) against the Saints. Still, Likely's underpriced on FanDuel and an acceptable option on DraftKings, albeit not a must-use choice.
The Saints have been a nightmare to throw deep on lately. According to numberFire, they've allowed only six completions on 19 attempts that traveled at least 15 Air Yards for 113 yards, one touchdown and one interception. So, Proche might be a stylistic fit for this matchup. According to PFF, Proche has four targets from zero to nine yards downfield and only two longer than nine yards this season. So, the young slot wideout could have an increased role with short targets, asking him to do damage after the catch.
DeSean Jackson is expected to be active for his season debut for the Ravens. Unfortunately, the veteran speedster's playing style is a lousy matchup fit against a defense that contains deep passes. Nevertheless, if he has anything left in the tank, D-Jax has elite speed that might pair well with Jackson's ability to extend passing plays with his legs. Further, they could get him some short targets in space, hoping he can pile up yardage after the catch.
Josh Oliver is strictly a punt on DK. The Ravens routinely use multiple tight ends, and Oliver is an inviting big-bodied target in the short area of the field. He's not often used, but he's pushed up the depth chart with Andrews out, and Oliver even has a touchdown this year.
Justice Hill is my favorite choice in Baltimore's backfield. Kenyan Drake should lead the backs in usage, but Jackson is Baltimore's most effective runner. So, Drake is a bit overpriced as a committee back who cedes carries to the quarterback, too. Meanwhile, Hill has mixed in and averaged 29.8 rushing yards per game at a blistering 6.4 yards per carry.
Saints Analysis: The Saints are a balanced offense when led by Andy Dalton this year. In neutral game scripts during Dalton's five starts, he's attempted 102 passes, Taysom Hill has tossed seven passes and rushed 23 times and the other non-running backs have tallied 94 rushes.
The approach has been effective. Since Week 4, the Saints have scored 25, 39, 26, 34 and 24 points. In addition, Dalton is rock-solid, averaging 235.0 passing yards per game, tossing nine touchdowns and four interceptions in five starts.
The Red Rifle might have success when he airs it out deep. The Ravens have allowed eight completions on 12 pass attempts that traveled at least 15 Air Yards in the last three weeks for 248 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions. Further, they've faced Tom Brady, Jacoby Brissett and Daniel Jones. So, they haven't faced a murderer's row of quarterbacks in their last three games.
Alvin Kamara is the most attractive option for the Saints. He has a tantalizing 24.1% Target Share in four games played in which Dalton started. He led the Saints in receptions (28) and receiving yards (268) and tied for the lead in touchdown receptions (two) in those games. Kamara also has a fabulous matchup. Running backs have the seventh-most receiving yards per game (45.5) and fifth-most receptions (50) against the Ravens this year.
Kamara is also a talented runner. The bell-cow back averages 68.8 rushing yards per game. He can shine on the ground in a plus matchup this week. The Ravens are 25th in rush defense DVOA. So, Kamara can eat as a runner and receiver tonight.
Chris Olave is another excellent choice from the Saints. In the three games in which Dalton started and Kamara suited up, the rookie receiver had a team-high 25.7% Target Share, the most Air Yards (287) and the second most receptions (16) and receiving yards (212). He's also the most likely player to benefit from Baltimore's susceptibility against deep passes.
The matchup is also outstanding for him since he's the Saints' best receiver. No. 1 wideouts average the third-most receiving yards per game (89.5) against the Ravens.
Hill is the final intriguing piece of New Orleans' offense. It's no longer fair to call him a gadget player. Instead, he's an offensive weapon. Hill has completed six passes for 75 yards and a touchdown. Additionally, he's rushed for 337 yards and five touchdowns and hauled in three receptions for 16 yards and a touchdown. Rushing is probably Hill's best path to success, and he's toted the rock at least five times in four of Dalton's five starts.
Final Thoughts: Kamara is my favorite choice for captain/MVP since he can amass a ton of points in any game script and has a dreamy matchup. Olave is my second-favorite selection for the captain/MVP spot. Finally, the Ravens are the preferred source of value on this showdown slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
