There isn’t a game in London this week. However, there are six teams on their bye in Week 9. As a result, the main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has 10 games. Naturally, there are fewer featured players because of the reduced slate. However, the players are whittled further due to having nearly half of the season’s worth of data.
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Week 9 Matchups
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: LAC -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 49.5 Points
Chargers Analysis: Austin Ekeler is a high-ceiling option this week. He's greeted by an excellent matchup out of the Chargers' Week 8 bye. According to Football Outsiders, the Falcons are 26th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Ekeler can also get it done through the air. Mike Williams is out, and Keenan Allen is working through a nagging hamstring injury. Meanwhile, per Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Ekeler has the highest Target Share (20.2%) among running backs in 2022. The do-it-all back has parlayed his robust usage into elite production. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Ekeler averages 54.3 rushing yards, 7.6 receptions and 51.0 receiving yards per game. He's also splashed paydirt eight times. As a result, the optimizer loves him. Ekeler is the RB1 at both DFS sites, with the RB4 value score (RB4V) at them.
Donald Parham is a tournament-specific contrarian selection. The tight end landscape leaves much to be desired this week, making a punt appealing. So, Parham is intriguing in a plus matchup. Tight ends average the third-most receiving yards per game (67.6) against the Falcons, per Football Outsiders. They've also racked up the second-most receptions (54) this season against the Dirty Birds.
Sadly, Parham has played in only two games this year because of injuries. Still, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he caught all three of his targets on 11 routes for 53 yards in Week 6. The athletic tight end, a former XFL standout, has been targeted on a rock-solid 17.7% of his routes in his NFL career that began in 2020. It takes some squinting to see value in Parham, but he's a fun selection in a potential shootout who will fly under the radar.
Falcons Analysis: Atlanta isn't a DFS-friendly team, but Arthur Smith has the offense cooking with gasoline. So, gamers shouldn't invest in the Falcons, but they can play well enough to keep Los Angeles's foot on the accelerator.
Game: Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
Spread: MIA -5.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Dolphins Analysis: Miami's offense was white-hot against the Lions last week. Sure, playing Detroit's defense helped. But, still, Tua Tagovailoa has done an outstanding job of pumping targets to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, Tua is first in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (8.85 ANY/A) and seventh in passing yards per game (279.7). Further, Tua's yardage surges to 313.6 passing yards per game if you exclude the Week 4 game he exited early with a concussion. The lefty is projected as the QB4 at both sites.
Hill and Waddle have done most of the damage on Tua's passes. The following table has their stats on Tua's 186 passes via numberFire.
Hill's and Waddle's stats in essentially five and a half games with Tua have been staggering, suffice to say. They're excellent choices this week. Hill is the WR1 at both providers, with the WR5V at DK and WR1V at FD. And Waddle is the WR7 at DK and WR8 at FD.
Bears Analysis: Justin Fields has become a DFS asset lately. Since Week 5, Fields has averaged 182 passing yards and 69.25 passing yards per game. The second-year quarterback has also scampered for two touchdowns and tossed five during his four-game heater.
Fields' top-shelf rushing ability is his DFS calling card, and he has a superb matchup for adding to his rushing total. Per Pro-Football-Reference, quarterbacks have the fifth-most rushing yards (192) against Miami at an eyebrow-raising 5.64 yards per carry, punching in two touchdowns as a cherry on top. Teams have also passed for the seventh-most yards per game (262.1) and 12 touchdowns against the Dolphins this year, elevating Fields' passing ceiling. Thus, he's the QB7 at DK and FD, with the QB1V at the former and tied for the QB7V at FD.
Darnell Mooney is the most attractive pass-catcher for the Bears. Per SIS, he's ninth in Target Share (28.2%) this year. And, unsurprisingly, he's stepped up along with Fields during his young quarterback's run of success. Mooney has averaged 4.2 receptions and 67.4 receiving yards per game in his last five contests. The field-stretching wideout is a rock-solid choice at DK and FD, but he's a screaming value at the former, owning the WR3V.
Cole Kmet is a viable option because of his salary, the appeal of stacking this game and the matchup. Tight ends have the fifth-most receiving yards per game (63.0), the third-most receptions (52) and have scored three touchdowns.
Game: Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: CIN -7.5 Points
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Panthers Analysis: DJ Moore has turned it on in the wake of the Panthers trading Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers. Moore has 13 receptions for 221 yards and two touchdowns on 21 targets in the last two weeks.
Unfortunately, the Bengals lost Chidobe Awuzie for the rest of the season and have other injuries in their secondary to navigate. So, Moore can pick apart Cinci's banged-up secondary. He's projected as the WR12 at both DFS websites, but he's the WR1V at DK and tied for the WR12V at FD.
Second-year wideout Terrace Marshall can also pick on the Bengals. The 2021 second-round pick is Carolina's No.2 wideout and had the best game of his young career last week. Marshall had four receptions and 87 receiving yards on nine targets in Week 8. He also had the trust of P.J. Walker in the red zone, earning a target in the endzone that Marshall couldn't secure with both feet in bounds. There aren't many enticing punts at under $4,000 on DK and under $5,500 on FD, but Marshall fits the bill.
Carolina's defense is also a fun pick against the Bengals. Cinci's offense cratered without Ja'Marr Chase last week, and they will have to adjust to playing without him for the foreseeable future. In addition, Joe Burrow and the Bengals' offensive line are struggling to prevent sacks. Burrow has taken eight sacks in the last two games, including taking five in Week 8. The Panthers have the DST6V at DK and are projected to be one of the chalkiest defenses in DFS this weekend.
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals had only 229 total yards on offense and scored 13 points last week. Chase's absence was their undoing last week, making them a team to fade in DFS until they can right their ship.
Game: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Spread: GB -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 49.5 Points
Packers Analysis: Aaron Jones is in a smash spot. First, per Football Outsiders, the Packers are second in Adjusted Line Yards (5.11). Second, the Lions are 30th in rush defense DVOA.
Jones has pulled away from AJ Dillon. The former has a 64% snap share this season and has reached at least a 67% mark in three of his last four games. Jones also has a decided advantage in the passing attack. Since Week 6, Jones has run 45 routes and earned a target on an absurd 33% of them compared to only 22 routes and one target for Dillon.
Jones rumbled for 143 yards last week but is game-script proof because of his role in Green Bay's aerial attack. So, he's a high-floor and high-ceiling pick, reflected by his ranking as the RB3 at DK and FD, with the RB7V at DK and RB1V at FD.
Lions Analysis: Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a dreamboat in his healthy contests this year. In four games in which ARSB didn't enter the contest on the injury report or leave it early with an injury, he's averaged 10.75 targets, 7.5 receptions and 80.5 receiving yards per game, scoring three receiving touchdowns and rushing for 68 yards. The matchup is challenging, but ARSB's volume is too good to ignore. He's projected as the WR9 at DK and WR10 at FD, with the WR10V at DK and tied for the WR5V at FD.
James Mitchell is a defensible punt if Brock Wright doesn't clear the NFL's concussion protocol for this week. Detroit's fifth-round selection had some fantasy-friendly strengths listed in Lance Zierlein's scouting report for NFL.com. Mitchell flashed receiving potential in his college career at Virginia Tech. Per PFF, he had seven touchdowns and 16.4 yards per reception on 50 receptions in 29 games. Mitchell also earned a target on 19.2% of his routes in his last three seasons of college football.
The rookie will be the primary beneficiary this week of the Lions trading T.J. Hockenson if Wright is out. Yet, if Wright is cleared to suit up, Detroit's tight end room is too unclear to use in DFS this week.
Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: LV -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Raiders Analysis: Josh Jacobs is a bell-cow back running behind a butt-whooping offensive line. In fact, the Raiders are first in Adjusted Line Yards (5.54). Las Vegas can push around Jacksonville's defense that ranks 20th in rush defense DVOA.
Jacobs can also erupt through the air. Running backs have averaged the third-most receiving yards per game (57.1) against the Jaguars this year. Further, they've coughed up the second-most receptions (52) to running backs.
The fourth-year running back is making money for himself in his walk year, ranking fourth in rushing yards per game (96.6) and adding 3.1 receptions and 21.7 receiving yards per game. Jacobs has also rushed for six touchdowns. The upside is immense for Jacobs, and he's projected as the RB2 at both DFS providers, with the RB5V at DK and RB6V at FD.
Jaguars Analysis: Trevor Lawrence has made some bewildering throws this year. The lows have been low. However, the second-year quarterback hasn't been entirely worthless in DFS. He's passed for multiple touchdowns in three games, passed for more than 300 yards once and rushed for touchdowns in two contests.
Lawrence has a dreamy matchup this week. The Raiders are 31st in pass defense DVOA, have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game (258.1) and have coughed up the third-most passing touchdowns (15). So, this is a get-right spot for Lawrence. He's a value choice in DFS this week, with the QB2V at DK and the QB4V at FD.
Jacobs will have competition for the top running back in this game. Travis Etienne is a man on fire. The dynamic running back has more than 100 scrimmage yards in four consecutive games, averaging 106.75 rushing yards, 2.25 receptions and 19.0 receiving yards per game, adding a touchdown in each of the last two weeks for good measure.
The Raiders are ill-equipped to toss cold water on Etienne's heater. Las Vegas is 18th in rush defense DVOA, but their ineptitude in containing running backs in the passing game is Etienne's most exciting matchup advantage. The Raiders allow the most receiving yards per game (61.9) to running backs. Moreover, Las Vegas has allowed the third-most receptions (52) and is tied for the second-most touchdown receptions (three) ceded to running backs this year. So, understandably, Etienne is an optimizer darling, projecting as the RB4 at DK, with RB1V and RB5 at FD tying for the RB3V.
Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are also awesome passing-game selections from the Jaguars. According to PFF, players in the slot this year average 5.85 receptions and 63.14 receiving yards per game against the Raiders. Meanwhile, Kirk has played 73.9% of his passing snaps in the slot this year. He's projected as the WR19 at DK and FD, with the WR8V at DK and WR10V at FD.
Engram is justifiably projected to be a chalk option at DK. He's the TE8 at both DFS sites, with the TE3V at DK and TE5V at FD. The 2017 first-round pick averages 4.0 receptions and 41.3 receiving yards per game and has a touchdown this season. The pass-catching tight end has also been in a groove, catching at least four passes with at least 40 receiving yards in four straight games and at least 55 in three of his last four.
The matchup is quite nice for Engram, too. Tight ends average 52.8 receiving yards per game against the Raiders, slightly more than the league average (50.6). This season, they have also caught the third-most touchdowns (three) against the Raiders.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Spread: NE -5.5 Points
Over/Under: 39.5 Points
Colts Analysis: Jonathan Taylor hasn't practiced this week after aggravating his ankle injury last week. Even if he returns to practice, the ankle re-aggravation is concerning. Backup running back Deon Jackson is a season-long fantasy football waiver darling, but the opportunity cost for using him as a punt isn't worth it in DFS this week. Sam Ehlinger guided the Colts to only 16 points last week, Indy's implied total is just 17 points and the Colts have scored more than 20 points only once in 2022.
Patriots Analysis: Rhamondre Stevenson has seized lead-back duty for the Patriots. He's a talented runner and passing-game weapon. According to PFF, the second-year back is sixth in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.91 YCO/A), 12th in Missed Tackles Forced (24 MTF) and tied for 10th in 10-plus-yard runs (14) out of 50 running backs who've attempted at least 40 rushes this season.
Stevenson has also been a steady presence in New England's passing attack, catching at least four passes in five of his last six games and averaging 4.0 receptions and 27.1 receiving yards per game. He has an outstanding matchup for showing off his pass-catching chops since the Colts permit the sixth-most receiving yards per game (46.0) to running backs, and they've also amassed the seventh-most receptions (47) against Indy. Stevenson is a game-script-proof back and projects as the RB8 at both DFS sites, with the RB3V at DK and RB8V at FD.
Game: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Spread: BUF -12.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Bills Analysis: The Jets have a talented defense, evidenced by ranking eighth in total defense DVOA, pass DVOA and rush DVOA. Thus, some gamers might not want to pay the sticker price for the heavily favored Bills. As a result, there's some GPP appeal for paying the high salaries for Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs.
Allen won't be entirely slept on. Still, any suppression to the percentage of rosters he's on is welcome for a player averaging an NFL-high 314.0 passing yards per game and 53.0 rushing yards per game. Allen has also rushed for two and passed for 19 touchdowns. The dual-threat quarterback is projected as the QB1 at DK and FD, tying for the QB1V at the latter.
Diggs has been on the same wavelength as Allen this year. Ergo, Buffalo's No. 1 wideout's the most attractive stacking option with Allen. If Allen blows up, Diggs probably will, too. Diggs is third in receptions per game (7.9), second in receiving yards per game (109.1) and tied for first in receiving touchdowns (seven). Thus, he can break through even a challenging matchup. Diggs is projected as the WR3 at DK and FD, with the WR7V at the latter.
Sadly, Dawson Knox hasn't duplicated his touchdown-fueled 2021 breakout this season. However, he's reached paydirt in back-to-back games. Knox is also third on the Bills in routes (149) in the five games he's been active in 2022.
The fourth-year tight end's route participation could pay dividends in a good matchup. Tight ends average the 10th-most receiving yards per game (58.1) against Gang Green, and the Jets are tied for the fourth-most receptions (46) yielded to tight ends. As a result, Knox is a decent selection for the underwhelming tight end position.
Jets Analysis: PFF ranks Zach Wilson 40th out of 40 quarterbacks who've dropped back at least 25 times this year and faced pressure. Meanwhile, they rank Buffalo's defense as the second-best at pressuring quarterbacks. So, how do you think this story will end?
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders
Spread: MIN -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Vikings Analysis: Justin Jefferson isn't a must-use option in any game type this week, but his ceiling is tantalizing in a tasty matchup. The third-year receiver is an efficient target hog. He's eighth in Target Share (28.4%). Additionally, Jefferson is fifth in Yards per Route Run (2.68 Y/RR) out of 62 wideouts targeted at least 30 times in 2022. He's converted his targets and efficiency into the fifth-most receptions (7.4) and third-most receiving yards per game (107.4).
Finally, the matchup is sweet. Washington is 28th in pass defense DVOA, and No. 1 wideouts average the eighth-most receiving yards per game (81.4) against them. So, it's understandable to see Jefferson projected as the WR2 in DFS this week, with the WR4V at FD.
Minnesota's a favorite, setting the stage for their defense to score fantasy points. The Vikings are tied for sixth in turnovers forced (13) and tied for ninth in sacks (21). They're projected as the DST6, with the DST7V at both DFS outlets.
Commanders Analysis: J.D. McKissic hasn't practiced this week, setting the stage for Antonio Gibson to claim passing-game work and splitting work on the ground with rookie Brian Robinson. The role can be fruitful, especially at his bargain salary and with the trusted role he's demonstrated with Taylor Heinicke.
Gibson has been targeted on a jaw-dropping 44% of his routes, securing 10 receptions for 76 yards and two touchdowns since Heinicke took over starting duty in Week 7. Running backs average the eighth-most receiving yards per game (41.7) against the Vikings, creating a solid case for using Gibson in DFS this week, as long as McKissic is ruled out.
Curtis Samuel bounced back from an injury-riddled first year with Washington last season. Fortunately, he hasn't faltered with Heinicke. Instead, the versatile offensive chess piece has eight receptions for 103 yards and nine rush attempts for 55 yards in Heinicke's two starts. Samuel's rushing ability is a valuable tool in his tool belt.
Yet, a matchup against Minnesota's secondary is the most compelling reason for using him this week. Slot players have barbecued Minnesota this year. Cornerback Chandon Sullivan has been no resistance to the opposition. According to PFF, Sullivan has allowed the most receiving yards (446), receptions (33), Yards After the Catch (304) and the fourth-highest Quarterback Rating (122.9) from the slot among cornerbacks and safeties who've played at least 70 slot coverage snaps this season. Therefore, Samuel might be the next slot player to victimize Minnesota's pass defense.
Washington's defense isn't an apparently excellent selection. Still, according to Pro-Football-Reference's splits, Kirk Cousins is less productive outdoors than in domes. So no, Washington's defense isn't a bulletproof pick. Nevertheless, they have the DST4V at DK.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: ARI -2.0 Points
Over/Under: 49.5 Points
Seahawks Analysis: Sadly, Kenneth Walker ran for only 51 yards last week after ripping off 88, 97 and 167 in the three previous weeks. Still, the hard-charging rookie extended his touchdown streak to four games.
Since Week 5, Walker is third in rushing yards (404), tied for third in Missed Tackles Forced (19) and tied for first in rushing touchdowns (five) among running backs. Fortunately, he also ran 19 routes versus nine for Travis Homer last week, alleviating some concern about a negative game script relegating him to spectating from the sideline. Finally, Walker stands out in the projection as RB5 at DK, with the RB2V and the RB4 at FD, with the RB5V.
Cardinals Analysis: The Cardinals had a season-low nine points against the Seahawks in Week 6. It's reasonable for gamers to harbor concerns about Arizona's offense in the rematch. However, first, the Cardinals are at home in this go-round. Second, DeAndre Hopkins was still serving his suspension.
So, Arizona can rebound in their second crack at their NFC West rival. Kyler Murray ran for 100 yards in the first meeting with the Seahawks and passed for 326 yards and three touchdowns last week. Those are two checks in the pros column for using the diminutive dual-threat quarterback. Additionally, Arizona's offense has hung 68 points on the scoreboard since Nuk was re-instated from his suspension in Week 7. The optimizer believes in Murray, projecting him as the QB2 in DFS this week.
Nuk is my favorite piece of the Cardinals, though. He's been unguardable in two contests, averaging 11.0 receptions and 131.0 receiving yards per game and scoring one touchdown. In addition, Murray has had tunnel vision for his No. 1 wideout. Nuk has been targeted on an outrageous 32.9% of his routes. The target hog is projected as the WR5 in DFS this week, making him a high-upside pick.
Rondale Moore is a volatile option. The dynamic but undersized wideout's value is tied directly to where he's lined up. When he regularly aligns wide, he's overwhelmed. However, when Moore plays a higher percentage of his snaps from the slot, he excels. In Weeks 5, 6 and 8, Moore had 20 receptions for 209 yards and a touchdown on 26 targets while playing 70.7% of his passing snaps from the slot.
Moore also coexisted with Nuk last week. The second-year wideout had seven receptions for 92 yards and a touchdown on eight targets in Week 8. Moore can maintain his momentum in a stellar matchup this week. Rookie cornerback Coby Bryant has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards (236), tied for the ninth-most receptions ceded (21), tied for the second-most touchdown receptions surrendered (two) and yielded the ninth-highest Quarterback Rating (115.4) in slot coverage among cornerbacks and safeties who've played at least 70 coverage snaps in the slot. So, gamers should keep Moore on their radars this week.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Rams Analysis: Cooper Kupp has been a limited practice participant this week because of swelling in his ankle due to being tackled awkwardly late in the game last week when the Rams inexplicably still had him on the field. Kupp's salary is too high to justify paying for a player at less than 100%. The rest of LA's offense is a disaster. So, gamers are encouraged to fade them.
Buccaneers Analysis: It's hard to believe a defense is the most exciting option in a rematch of last year's 30-27 victory by the Rams over the Buccaneers in the Divisional Round. Yet, that's the state of the Bucs and Rams.
Matthew Stafford is tied for the second-most interceptions (eight) and has taken sacks at the 10th-highest rate (7.8%) this year. He's a gift for opposing defenses. Unfortunately, the Bucs have been inconsistent on defense. Still, they're third in sacks (25). They're not flawless, but Tampa's defense is projected as the DST3 in DFS this week, with the DST2V at DK, where they're projected to be a chalky defense.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
