The Eagles are 6.5-point favorites against the visiting Packers. The betting info suggests that the oddsmakers and bettors aren’t concerned about Philadelphia losing in Week 10 and narrowly escaping with a win in Week 11. The Packers are entering this game off of a loss after an impressive win in Week 10. The Eagles and Packers are top-heavy, which is reflected in the player suggestions. Yet, there are a few interesting bargains.
Game: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
The Eagles are 6.5-point favorites against the visiting Packers. The betting info suggests that the oddsmakers and bettors aren’t concerned about Philadelphia losing in Week 10 and narrowly escaping with a win in Week 11. The Packers are entering this game off of a loss after an impressive win in Week 10. The Eagles and Packers are top-heavy, which is reflected in the player suggestions. Yet, there are a few interesting bargains.
Game: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Packers Analysis: The Packers had an impressive upset against the Cowboys in Week 10 before suffering another loss in a disappointing season in Week 11. However, the Titans were a challenging matchup last week for Green Bay's run-heavy approach.
According to numberFire, the Packers have attempted 24 passes and 42 rushes by non-quarterbacks since Week 10. Aaron Jones handled 28 of the 42 attempts, rumbling for 151 yards and a touchdown. Conversely, AJ Dillon carried the ball 14 times for 58 scoreless yards.
Jones's backfield split was stellar, and the matchup is good this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles are 26th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Teams have also opted to aggressively lean into the run against them in Philadelphia's previous three games, all without run-stuffing rookie interior defensive lineman Jordan Davis. The Texans, Commanders and Colts attempted 71 passes and 90 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts against the Eagles in the last three games.
Jones is an exciting pick against Philadelphia's beatable run defense. Fortunately, he's also a game-script-proof pick. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Jones has run 33 routes compared to 21 for Dillon since Week 10.
Aaron Rodgers has a more challenging matchup through the air. The Eagles are third in pass defense DVOA. Still, Rodgers has played respectably in back-to-back games, averaging 225.5 passing yards per game, completing 64.4% of his passes, tossing five touchdowns and throwing zero interceptions in the last two weeks.
The back-to-back NFL MVP isn't a must-use player. Rodgers is more appealing now than he was earlier in the year, though. And Rodgers will be busy if the Packers have to play from behind.
Rodgers' improvement has coincided with a healthy Christian Watson. The freakishly athletic rookie has turned heads in the last two weeks by reeling in eight receptions for 155 yards and five touchdowns. According to PFF, the speedster had a 20.2-yard average depth of target (aDOT). Sadly, his vertical usage might meet resistance in this game. Philadelphia's defense has allowed only 23 completions on 63 attempts (36.5%) for 543 yards, one touchdown and eight interceptions on passes that traveled at least 15 air yards this year.
Thankfully, it's not all doom and gloom for Watson. Per PFF, Watson has six targets behind the line of scrimmage, eight from zero to nine yards, six from 10 to 19 yards and eight at 20-plus yards downfield. Additionally, in the last two games, Watson had four of five targets from inside the 15-yard line, securing three receptions for touchdowns. Allen Lazard had the other target in that area. So, Watson might be Rodgers' new preferred target near the end zone.
Randall Cobb might be the best matchup fit in Green Bay's receiving corps. Last week, the veteran slot wideout had six receptions for 73 yards in his return from the Injured Reserve (IR). He was targeted on a rock-solid 23.1% of his routes at a reasonable 8.7-yard aDOT. Finally, PFF awards Cob a good ranking on their wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart. Thus, Cobb is an attractive value option at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Eagles Analysis: The Eagles have evolved from the run-heavy team they were last season. Jalen Hurts has attempted 85 passes and rushed 25 times, and the non-quarterbacks have rushed 42 times in neutral game scripts since Philadelphia's bye in Week 7.
Therefore, Hurts is a genuine dual-threat weapon. The third-year quarterback is also playing at a high level. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Hurts has averaged 240.7 passing yards and 44.0 rushing yards per game, adding 15 touchdowns through the air and eight on the ground.
Choosing Hurts for showdown teams will allow gamers access to Philly's rushing game and the trigger man in the passing attack. Hurts' ceiling is unmatched on this showdown slate.
A.J. Brown is the most exciting pass-catching option from the Eagles. The stud wideout has led the Eagles in receiving yards (282) and touchdowns (four) since the club's bye. However, DeVonta Smith has led the way in targets (27) and receptions (19), chipping in 171 receiving yards and a touchdown.
The duo also doesn't have to fight for targets with injured tight end Dallas Goedert. So, Brown and Smith should be target hogs. However, Goedert's vacated usage might be divided by other ancillary options.
No. 3 wideout Quez Watkins is an enticing choice. He's run the third-most routes (75) among Philadelphia's healthy players since the bye, converting his usage into eight receptions, 122 receiving yards and a touchdown.
The speedy wideout is a good matchup fit against Green Bay's defense. Watkins has a 12.9-yard aDOT. He also has five targets of 20-plus yards downfield, resulting in three receptions for 125 yards and two touchdowns. On the flip side, Green Bay's opponents have completed 29 of 50 passes (58%) for 878 yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions on passes that traveled at least 15 Air Yards.
Grant Calcaterra is a galaxy-brain pick after he burned me on the full slate last week as a punt. Jack Stoll led Philly's tight ends in routes (22) last week but had only one target leading to a seven-yard reception. Head coach Nick Sirianni was happy with Stoll's performance last week but lauded Stoll as "a dirty work guy." Dirty work doesn't score fantasy points.
Moreover, Calcaterra has an intriguing athletic profile and was a productive pass-catching option in college. Calcaterra wasn't targeted last week, but he played seven passing snaps, ran six routes, aligned wide once, inline twice and in the slot four times. Former quarterback Tyree Jackson was also on the field. However, he played just four passing snaps and ran only three routes, putting him behind Calcaterra in the pecking order. Thus, Calcaterra is a reasonable dart.
Final Thoughts: Hurts is the best option for captain/MVP. However, Jones, Brown, Smith, Rodgers and Watson aren't outrageous choices. Finally, a balanced lineup featuring a few players from each team is the most appealing construction on this slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
