The three-game main slate on Thanksgiving was an appetizer for Sunday’s 11-game main slate, resulting in no teams having a bye this week. There are many options to select from on this vast slate. The following suggestions will help whittle the player pool to a manageable group of choices.
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Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Spread: DEN -2.0 Points
Over/Under: 36.0 Points
Broncos Analysis: Denver’s offense is a joke. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they’re 25th in yards per play (5.1) and 32nd in scoring offense (14.7 points per game). There’s no reason to chase Denver’s one-to-two touchdowns in DFS.
Panthers Analysis: Carolina's defense has an outstanding matchup. The Panthers haven't performed consistently well on defense. Still, they've had good games, including the last two games in which they held the Falcons to 15 and the Ravens to 13 points while forcing two turnovers and recording eight sacks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns
Spread: TB -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: Rachaad White had a breakout game before Tampa Bay's bye in Week 11. He rushed 22 times for 105 yards. White's workload was bolstered by Leonard Fournette leaving early with a hip injury, but it was essentially a one-two punch. The team will ride the hot hand, but Fournette won't be in the mix this week unless he progresses to running at full speed.
White is an appealing option in a dreamy matchup, regardless of Fournette's status. However, White's upside will skyrocket if Fournette is ruled out. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns are 32nd in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The Bucs' move to a run-heavy offense in their final game before the bye was also favorable for the backfield's outlook. So, White is projected as the RB13 at DraftKings and the RB14 at FanDuel, with the RB3 value score (RB3V) at the former and tied for the RB7V at the latter.
Browns Analysis: Cleveland's top trio of pass-catchers is intriguing in this matchup. First, the Browns are underdogs, possibly forcing them to air it out in comeback mode. Second, according to numberFire, teams have attempted 90 passes and 62 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts against the Bucs in their last four games.
Amari Cooper is thriving in his first year with the Browns. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), he's eighth in Intended Air Yards (1,062) and 12th in Target Share (25.5%), parlaying his usage into 5.0 receptions per game, 69.8 receiving yards per game and seven touchdowns. Cooper has demonstrated a desirable ceiling for tournaments, eclipsing 100 receiving yards while also scoring a touchdown in four games this year. He's projected as the WR9 at DK and the WR10 at FD and tied for the WR8V at DK.
Donovan Peoples-Jones is blossoming this year. The third-year pro is averaging 4.0 receptions and 57.7 receiving yards per game. He also has a good matchup this week. Per Football Outsider, No. 2 wide receivers have averaged the sixth-most receiving yards per game (59.1) against the Bucs.
The matchup is nice for David Njoku, too. Tight ends have four touchdowns, the sixth-most receptions (52), and average the 10th-most receiving yards per game (53.8) against the Bucs. The sixth-year tight end was eased back into action in Week 11 after missing two contests but was turning into a consistent weapon in the passing attack before his injury. Njoku had at least 58 receiving yards in five straight contests before he was injured and bested 70 yards four times. If he's healthier this week and allotted his standard snap share, Njoku can help DFS squads.
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: BAL -4.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Ravens Analysis: Baltimore's offense is underwhelming. They've had a few outbursts, but they've frequently left much to be desired. They scored only 13 points and had just 308 yards of offense last week after their Week 10 bye. Baltimore's rushing attack is the most exciting part of their offense. Unfortunately, it will probably be divvied between Gus Edwards and Kenyan Drake, and Lamar Jackson is the most dynamic runner on the team.
Jaguars Analysis: Travis Etienne had 73 scoreless scrimmage yards and three receptions in Week 10, and the effort was a disappointment. The explosive bell-cow back's expectations are high after reeling off five straight games of more than 110 scrimmage yards and scoring four touchdowns in the five contests before his pedestrian effort in Week 10.
Etienne should be rejuvenated out of the bye in Week 11, and he can flash his receiving prowess against the Ravens. Running backs have averaged 5.8 receptions and 43.2 receiving yards per game against Baltimore this season. The second-year back, who's ostensibly a rookie, is projected as the RB6 this week and a value at both DFS providers, sporting the RB2 V at DK and the RB4V at FD.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
Spread: MIA -13.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Texans Analysis: If a team thinks the answer for providing a spark to their offense is inserting Kyle Allen as the starting quarterback, they should instead seek a fire extinguisher to put out their dumpster fire. Gamers are advised to fade the Texans.
Dolphins Analysis: The Dolphins should be able to name the final score against the Texans. Houston is 26th in yards allowed per play (5.8), 18th in scoring defense (23.0 points per game), 31st in rush defense DVOA, and 25th in pass defense DVOA.
It should be a fantasy bonanza for Miami's highly efficient offense. As a result, Tua Tagovailoa is projected as the QB2, Tyreek Hill is the WR1, Jaylen Waddle, is the WR4, and Jeff Wilson is the RB9 at DK and the RB8 at FD. Hill and Wilson are also projected to provide value, with Hill projecting as the WR7V at DK and the WR2V at FD and Wilson profiling as the RB4V at DK.
The trio of Tua, Hill, and Waddle can eviscerate Houston's leaky pass defense. Yet, they're not risk-free selections. The concern is simple. If the Dolphins race out to a big lead and Tagovailoa, Hill and Waddle aren't the players punching in touchdowns, then they can fail to provide DFS teams with value if the Dolphins lean into the running attack to salt the game away. Still, an offense being too potent is a good problem to have, making all three players high-upside picks, despite the risk a blowout presents them.
Wilson is probably Miami's most game-script-proof option. Sure, he'll cede some work to Raheem Mostert, but Miami's trade-deadline acquisition has already overtaken the incumbent Mostert on the depth chart. Wilson had a 49% snap share in his debut for the Dolphins in Week 9 and a 61% share in Week 10, besting Mostert's 47% and 28% shares in those contests.
The midseason acquisition had 72 yards, three receptions, a touchdown in his debut, and 143 scrimmage yards (119 on the ground), two receptions, and a touchdown in Week 10. Wilson touched the ball 19 times in Week 10, and he should reach the mid to upper teens in touches in a cupcake matchup, making him an exciting option on this week's main slate.
Chicago Bears at New York Jets
Spread: NYJ -6.0 Points
Over/Under: 38.5 Points
Bears Analysis: Justin Fields has been a one-man force in fantasy lately, running wild against the opposition. Unfortunately, he has a severe shoulder injury that will presumably dissuade him from running as frequently and could sideline him this week. Thus, gamers should avoid the Bears and their ghastly implied total.
Jets Analysis: The Jets are playing lockdown defense. Gang Green is third in yards allowed per play (4.8), tied for ninth in turnovers forced (14), and tied for fourth in sacks (32) this season. They have a high-side matchup against an injury-diminished Fields or backup quarterback Trevor Siemian this week. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Fields has the second-highest interception rate (3.5%) and the highest sack rate (14.9%). So, New York's defense's scoring ceiling is massive. They've projected it as the DST4 and have the DST3V at DK.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Spread: CIN -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals don't need the invitation to air it out, but they have one this week. Cincinnati has attempted 228 passes and just 103 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this year. Conversely, opponents have attempted 223 passes and just 105 rushes by non-quarterbacks against the Titans in neutral game scripts this season.
Joe Burrow will be busy this weekend, and he's coming off a sweet game in which he passed for 355 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. The third-year pro can ride the momentum of his post-bye outburst this week and will benefit from the expected return of Ja'Marr Chase.
The sophomore wideout might be on a pitch count in his return, rendering him a poor selection in DFS. Still, he can elevate Burrow's and the offense's ceiling.
Instead, Tee Higgins is Cinci's wideout to hone in on. The third-year wideout was concussed in Week 1 and hardly played in Week 5 while attempting to gut out an ankle injury. However, Higgins has averaged 8.75 targets, 6.0 receptions, 85.6 receiving yards, and 87.5 Air Yards per game in his eight healthy contests this year, splashing paydirt three times.
The big-bodied wideout has a good matchup this week. No. 2 wideouts have averaged the 12th-most receiving yards per game (54.6) against the Titans this year. In addition, wideouts are tied for the third-most receiving touchdowns (13) against the Titans this season. Understandably, Higgins looks good in the projection, ranking as the WR5 in Week 12.
Hayden Hurst is primarily included on the table as a stacking option with Burrow, especially in a double stack with Higgins and a bring-back from the Titans. Still, the matchup is good for him. Tight ends average 4.9 receptions and 56.4 receiving yards per game against Tennessee in 2022.
In addition, Hurst has a stranglehold atop Cinci's depth chart. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hurst has run 316 routes this year, and Mitchell Wilcox (75), Drew Sample (12) and Devin Asiasi have combined for only 95.
Titans Analysis: There is a handful of exciting value picks at running back, potentially suppressing the percentage of rosters Derrick Henry will be on. He's primarily included in this piece as a game-stacking pick opposite of Cinci's potent passing attack.
King Henry leads the NFL in rush attempts (230) and rushing yards per game (101.0) and is third in rushing touchdowns (10). So, obviously, he's a high-upside option. Henry's matchup isn't disheartening, either. The Bengals are in the middle of the pack, ranking 16th in rush defense DVOA. King Henry is projected as the RB2 in DFS. Yet, again, he's only included in this space to use him in game stacks with the Bengals.
Treylon Burks has made his presence felt in Tennessee's offense since returning from Injured Reserve (IR) in Week 10. The rookie wideout has earned a target on 26% of his routes and hauled in 10 receptions for 135 yards in the past two games.
Burks had his first 100-plus-yard game last week, catching seven passes for 111 receiving yards. It was also encouraging that head coach Mike Vrabel trusted the youngster enough to have him on the field for a game-icing 51-yard bomb on Tennessee's final drive last week since Burks was the recipient of tough love and eye-brow-raising quotes from Vrabel in the offseason. The Titans desperately need help in their pass-catching corps. So, the path is clear to a meaningful role for Burks. He's a nifty bargain option, namely at DK, where he's tied for the WR4V.
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
Spread: WSH -4.5 Points
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Falcons Analysis: Drake London isn't on the upswing like Burks, but he's also an exciting rookie with a bargain salary. Sadly, sophomore tight end Kyle Pitts suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. Pitts and London were Atlanta's two best passing-game options, and Pitts' injury leaves London as the last standing of the two.
He's not a lock to become a full-blown target hog in Atlanta's run-first offense. Still, London had an encouraging start to the year, illustrating his potential with a steady diet of targets. In his first three games, he had a 31.6% Target Share, 16 receptions, and two touchdowns. The big-bodied wideout has also scored touchdowns in back-to-back games, giving him an avenue for salvaging value, even if he isn't prominently featured.
Finally, the matchup is good. Washington's opponents have attempted 232 passes and just 116 pushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this year, and No. 1 wideouts have averaged the 10th-most receiving yards per game (76.7) against the Commanders.
Commanders Analysis: Terry McLaurin has been an alpha with Taylor Heinicke at the helm of Washington's offense. McLaurin has a 29.1% Target Share in Heinicke's five starts. Washington's top wideout has converted his juicy target share into 5.6 receptions, 85.0 receiving yards, and 100.6 Air Yards per game and scored a receiving touchdown.
Obviously, his numbers have been stellar. However, McLaurin has an eruption opportunity against Atlanta's lousy pass defense. The Falcons are 28th in pass defense DVOA. In addition, No. 1 wideouts have averaged the fifth-most receiving yards per game (81.1) against the Falcons. Thus, McLaurin is projected as the WR6 at DK and the WR7 at FD, with the WR2V at the former and is tied for the WR7V at the latter.
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: LAC -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers are an uptempo and pass-first team. First, according to Football Outsiders, Los Angeles is first in situation-neutral pace. Second, they've attempted 272 passes and 157 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this year.
The combination has resulted in a few excellent showings from Justin Herbert this year when injuries haven't ravaged his pass-catching corps. Herbert received some reinforcements last week, and he had 28 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and 17 rushing yards. He's had three other contests this year in which he's passed for more than 275 yards and tossed multiple touchdowns.
The Chargers' implied total and Arizona's below-average pass defense (22nd in pass defense DVOA) are reasons for optimism about another excellent showing from Herbert this week. Moreover, it's probably not coincidental Herbert kicked it up a notch in the return of Keenan Allen in Week 11.
The veteran wideout has battled an injury all year, prematurely coming back in Week 7. Allen had five receptions for 92 yards on eight targets last week. He also came out of the gate hot this year, catching his four targets for 66 yards on only 13 routes. Tossing out Allen's Week 7 contest, Allen was targeted on 29.3% of his routes in his other two games. Herbert and Allen didn't skip a beat, either. The third-year quarterback targeted his route-running technician on 28.6% of his routes last week.
Allen's usage was superb. He might also play more snaps this week after easing back into action for a 68% snap share. Since Allen came out of last week unscathed, the arrow is pointed upward for his outlook.
Gerald Everett is a sweet matchup-driven pick if he can return from a one-game absence. He was a full participant in practice on Thursday. So, the odds are high that Everett will play this week. And he'll be greeted by a cushy matchup. Tight ends have destroyed the Cardinals for the most receiving yards per game (72.7), receptions (79), and receiving touchdowns (nine).
Cardinals Analysis: James Conner doesn't wow onlookers will dazzling moves or explosiveness. Yet, he has two factors working in his favor this week. First, Conner has had a 71%, 96%, and 77% snap share in three games since returning from an injury. Second, Los Angeles's run defense is Charmin soft. Los Angeles is 30th in rush defense DVOA, and running backs have torched them for 134.0 rushing yards per game, 5.75 yards per carry, 10 rushing touchdowns, 4.5 receptions per game, 27.8 receiving yards per game, and three receiving touchdowns. Sometimes, it's as simple as chasing a reasonably priced running back with a featured role in a dreamy matchup.
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: SEA -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Raiders Analysis: Foster Moreau was held out of the box score in regulation last week. However, he had a 33-yard reception in overtime for the Raiders in Week 11. Moreau will have an opportunity for a better showing in a plus matchup this week.
Tight ends have averaged the second-most receiving yards (69.5) and 4.7 receptions per game against the Seahawks this year, scoring five touchdowns for good measure. So, Moreau's a matchup-driven option in Las Vegas's top-heavy offense. He has the TE5V at FD and the TE1V at DK.
Seahawks Analysis: A highly concentrated offense in a soft matchup is a recipe for DFS success for the integral offensive pieces, and the players on the Seahawks fit the bill. The Raiders are 32nd in pass defense DVOA and 22nd in rush defense DVOA.
Geno Smith is one of the most shocking performers this year after serving nearly his entire career as a journeyman backup. More shocking, Pete Carroll has allowed Smith to cook. The veteran quarterback has attempted 73 passes, and Seattle's non-quarterbacks have rushed 48 times in neutral game scripts in Seattle's last three games.
Additionally, Smith has passed for precisely two touchdowns in four consecutive games, chucked it for exactly 275 yards in back-to-back games, and rushed for at least 22 yards in three straight. So, Smith is an exciting value option this week in a mouthwatering matchup. He's projected as the QB6 in DFS, with the QB3V at DK and the QB4V at FD.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the best stacking options with Smith. The top two wideouts for the Seahawks have bogarted targets. Metcalf has led the team with 77, Lockett's 71 targets are second, and no one else has reached even 40. Metcalf has averaged 4.8 receptions and 58.1 receiving yards per game with five touchdowns on his team-high 77 targets. Meanwhile, Lockett has done more with his 71 targets, averaging 5.4 receptions and 64.0 receiving yards per game while adding five touchdowns.
Both are excellent choices against Las Vegas's lousy pass defense. The optimizer likes Metcalf a bit more than Lockett, projecting the former as the WR8 and the latter as the WR13 in DFS this week. However, I slightly prefer Lockett. Finally, PFF's wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart show Lockett ranked with the third-largest advantage among players on the main slate.
The favored Seahawks should have a good game script. So, Ken Walker can eat against the Raiders' shaky run defense. Running backs have averaged 149.0 scrimmage yards and 6.6 receptions per game and scored 10 touchdowns against the Raiders this year. Walker is equipped to steamroll the Raiders. He's averaged 88.2 rushing yards, 2.0 receptions, and 14.8 receiving yards per game since Week 5 and scored seven touchdowns during that six-game stretch.
Additionally, Walker's underlying stats have been impressive. Per PFF, Walker was tied for third in missed tackles forced (19), tied for ninth in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.59 YCO/A) and tied for first in 10-plus-yard rushes (12) in Week 5 through Week 10 out of 42 backs with at least 25 rush attempts. The rookie running back is projected as the RB5 in DFS and has the RB2V at DK and the RB3V at FD.
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -9.5 Points
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Saints Analysis: The Saints are running into a talented defense with a puny implied total. So gamers can comfortably fade them.
49ers Analysis: I won't begrudge anyone for using San Francisco's studs. However, the 9.5-point spread and depth of San Francisco's skill-position talent provide me pause for using them this week. There's only one ball to go around, and if the 49ers pound the Saints as they're projected to, Elijah Mitchell might soak up mop-up work on the ground from Christian McCaffrey. Further, a lopsided victory would almost assuredly dissuade Kyle Shanahan from calling passing plays, depressing the value of Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -15.5 Points
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Rams Analysis: The Rams' offense was cooked with a healthy Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. It's roadkill now, with Stafford and Kupp out.
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs are in a similar boat to the previously highlighted Dolphins and 49ers. However, they have a less-balanced offense than the already discussed teams. So, if they boat race the Rams, it's highly likely Patrick Mahomes, and his pass-catching weapons did the bulk of the damage.
Mahomes is on a crash course with his second NFL MVP Award. He leads the NFL in passing yards per game (326.5) and passing touchdowns (28). The Chiefs have leaned into their golden-armed stud. Mahomes has attempted 267 passes, and the non-quarterbacks have attempted 125 rushes in neutral game scripts this year. The Chiefs also haven't taken their foot off the gas when leading. Instead, they've attempted 74 passes and 60 rushes by non-quarterbacks when they've led by at least eight points this season. As a result, Mahomes is projected as the QB1 in DFS with the QB1V at FD.
Tavis Kelce is the cream of the crop in Kansas City's passing attack. He's tied for seventh in receptions per game (6.9), ninth in receiving yards per game (85.5), and first in receiving touchdowns (11). The stud tight end is a matchup-proof monster, projecting as the TE1 in Week 12, with the TE1V at FD and the TE3V at DK.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is trending toward clearing the NFL's concussion protocol this week. He was heating up before his concussion-shortened Week 10 contest. In his three previous games, he averaged 7.3 receptions and 108.3 receiving yards per game, scoring two touchdowns and besting 100 receiving yards twice.
Kansas City's wideouts behind Smith-Schuster are hurt or inconsistent. Mecole Hardman is on IR, and Kadarius Toney aggravated his hamstring injury last week and hasn't practiced this week. As a result, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore are the next men up for the Chiefs. MVS has popped up for useful showings in a few contests this year, but he's largely been a disappointment.
As a result, Watson and Moore might have chances to claim a larger piece of the pie. Surprisingly, Watson led the Chiefs in routes (37) last week, running eight more than MVS and Kelce. Moore was only sixth in routes (16) for the Chiefs in Week 11. However, his usage was eye-opening. Moore was targeted on a jaw-dropping 37.5% of his routes, hauling in five receptions for 63 receiving yards. Might that be the jumping-off point for the rookie second-round pick's first year as a pro? Maybe. He's projected as the WR3V at DK.
The Chiefs' defense is rightfully going to be the chalk at DK. Kansas City is a double-digit home favorite against a backup quarterback and lifeless offense. As a result, the Chiefs are projected as the DST1 in Week 12 and have the DST1V at DK.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
