The first meeting between the Chiefs and Chargers had more than 50 combined points. This matchup is projected to shoot out as well, with an over/under north of 50. The Chiefs are nearly a touchdown favorite, but just three points in Kansas City decided the first contest. There should be fireworks. Still, gamers will have to sift through a few superstars and make tough cuts when constructing rosters while choosing the correct value picks to offset the high-salaried choices.
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Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: KC -5.5 Points
Over/Under: 52.0 Points
Chiefs Analysis: The Chargers are dreadful at defending the run. According to Football Outsiders, they are 29th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Does it matter?
The Chiefs are a pass-happy offense. Per numberFire, Patrick Mahomes has attempted 233 passes, and non-quarterbacks have rushed only 102 times in neutral game scripts this year. Further, the Chiefs passed 35 times and rushed only 16 times with non-quarterbacks in the first meeting against the Chargers.
Teams have also passed slightly more often than running with non-quarterbacks against the Chargers in neutral game scripts this year, attempting 198 passes and 162 rushes by non-quarterbacks. So, investing in Mahomes and Kansas City's pass-catching corps is attractive, despite LA's apparent issues when defending the run.
The trigger man is the most exciting piece of Kansas City's passing attack. Mahomes has averaged 326.2 passing yards per game and tossed 25 touchdowns this year. Travis Kelce is a notable absence from the table, though.
The stud tight end has found the sledding tough against superstar safety Derwin James. Yes, Kelce has two 100-plus-yard efforts against James, including erupting for 10 receptions, 191 yards and two touchdowns in one meeting. However, Kelce has averaged 8.5 targets, 5.5 receptions, 72.83 receiving yards and reached paydirt in only one of six games against James. He also has modest median marks of eight targets, six receptions and 56 receiving yards. So, gamers should be willing to build some lineups without Kelce or fade him entirely.
Instead, Kansas City's other pass-catchers are exciting alternatives at more affordable salaries. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are out. Thus, the burden will be on other wide receivers to step up for the Chiefs. Kadarius Toney made his presence felt last week in a part-time role. The electrifying second-year wideout had two carries, 33 rushing yards, four receptions, 57 receiving yards and one touchdown last week.
Toney had just a 44% snap share. However, that was markedly higher than his 9% snap share in his debut for the Chiefs, and he could see more playing time this week since he's had more time to absorb the playbook, and the Chiefs are hurting at wide receiver.
Toney's underlying data was encouraging last week, too. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Toney earned a target on an eye-popping 29.4% of his routes. Even if Toney doesn't surge to a full-time role this week, his usage is robust enough to help showdown squads on this slate.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ran the most routes (34) last week, but the Chargers have stifled No. 1 wideouts. Fading MVS is defensible. Justin Watson was tied with Kelce for second on the Chiefs in routes last week, running 29. He was a cardio king, garnering only one target that produced a 12-yard reception. The speedy big-bodied wideout has flashed potential and rapport with Mahomes this year, including corralling both of his targets for 50 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers in Week 2. Watson is a similar archetype of wideout to MVS. So, taking the discount for spinning down to Watson is alluring.
Noah Gray and Skyy Moore are ancillary options who might see more opportunities because of the injuries ahead of them. Gray ran 13 routes, and Moore ran 10 last week in a contest Hardman missed, and Smith-Schuster left early because of a concussion. However, Andy Reid might have chosen to incorporate them into the game plan this week after having the entire week to prepare for this matchup.
Gray has had multiple receptions in both games since Kansas City's bye in Week 8, and he's garnered multiple targets in seven of nine games this season. Moore has largely been invisible this year. Yet, he's a rookie, and it's not unusual for first-year pros to find their footing later in the season. Moore might remain an afterthought, but it doesn't take a wild imagination to envision him creeping into the picture this week.
Jerick McKinnon is an intriguing piece of Kansas City's backfield. Since the Chiefs are a pass-happy team, the team's pass-catching back could make some noise this week. Since their bye, he's run 68 routes versus 29 for Isiah Pacheco and 13 for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. McKinnon has also had 16 targets, 12 receptions and 96 receiving yards in the previous two games. Jet has also played the most snaps for the Chiefs since their bye, playing 86 compared to 67 for Pacheco and 21 for CEH. McKinnon isn't likely to have a significant role as a ball carrier since he's rushed only 33 times this year. Nevertheless, the matchup is optimal if he does tote the rock at all.
Chargers Analysis: Like the Chiefs, the Chargers are a pass-happy offense. They've attempted 242 passes and 132 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this year. In addition, Kansas City's opponents have attacked the Chiefs through the air this year, attempting 182 passes and 112 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts.
Teams have understood the importance of exchanging haymakers with the Chiefs, and Kansas City's defense is an unimposing 22nd in pass defense DVOA. Justin Herbert was outstanding in the first matchup against the Chiefs, passing for 334 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. The third-year quarterback has endured critical injuries to his pass-catching corps. Yet, the cupboards are likely to be full this week.
Herbert has been underwhelming for over a month, but he came out of the gates on fire and could return to his early-season form with his top two wideouts in tow. As a result, Herbert is an excellent choice.
Austin Ekeler is another stellar choice. He doesn't visually resemble a traditional bell cow back, but Ekeler has had at least 19 touches in five of his last six games, with 13 in the outlier contest. Ekeler is also game-script proof, reeling in at least four receptions every game and hauling in at least seven six times, including in his previous four games. The do-it-all back had 94 scoreless yards on 14 carries and nine receptions in Week 2 against the Chiefs.
He'll probably see fewer targets since the receiving room is bolstered with at least one and probably both of the top wideouts returning this week. Regardless, a high tide can raise all ships by creating more touchdown-scoring opportunities and extending drives, allowing the Chargers to run more plays.
Moreover, the matchup is good for Ekeler. First, the Chiefs are 17th in rush defense DVOA. Second, per Football Outsiders, running backs have averaged the third-most receiving yards per game (51.2) against Kansas City. And, according to Pro-Football-Reference, running backs have averaged the most receptions per game (7.44) against the Chiefs. Therefore, Ekeler's production correlates more with Herbert than a running back less involved in the passing game does with his quarterback.
Mike Williams is playing tonight after a two-game absence, and Keenan Allen should suit up after practicing in full on Friday. Williams destroyed the Chiefs earlier this year, amassing eight receptions, 113 receiving yards and one touchdown. The sixth-year pro has more than 110 receiving yards three times and scored a touchdown three times this year. He also had seven receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown in his last healthy game in Week 7.
It's debatable if he's the first or second wideout for the Chargers if Allen is back this week. Regardless, the matchup is excellent. No. 1 wideouts are tied for the most receiving yards per game (91.2) and No. 2 wide receivers have averaged 49.2 receiving yards per game, more than the league average of 48.4, against the Chiefs this season. The Chiefs are also tied for the third-most receiving touchdowns (12) coughed up to wideouts.
So, the matchup is also dreamy for Allen. Unfortunately, it's largely been a lost season for the 30-year-old wideout. Allen was injured in Week 1 and ineffective in a limited role when he attempted to return in Week 7. Yet, Allen was teasing his potential in the opener, catching four passes for 66 yards on four targets. The savvy route-runner was targeted on 30.8% of his 13 routes in Week 1. If he's legitimately healthy, Allen can be a target hog.
Final Thoughts: The Chargers are top-heavy. Fortunately, the Chiefs have some value picks to aid with squeezing studs under the salary cap. Herbert, Mahomes and Ekeler are the most attractive picks for the captain/MVP spot. However, Toney is also viable, and Watson is a contrarian dart since he should play a full-time role and has long touchdown potential.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.