The Packers hope to stay hot after their upset victory against the Cowboys in Week 10. They’re favored but don’t necessarily match up well with the visiting Titans. The Titans and Packers are top-heavy. Fortunately, they each have a few interesting punts to offset their stars’ salaries.
Game: Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 42.0 Points
Titans Analysis: Derrick Henry is the focal point of Tennessee's offense. According to numberFire, Henry has attempted 110 rushes compared to 123 pass attempts for Ryan Tannehill in neutral game scripts in the latter's seven starts in 2022. Meanwhile, Green Bay's opponents have attempted 180 passes and 176 rushes by non-quarterbacks and punters in neutral game scripts this season.
The Packers have struggled mightily to defend the run this season. According to Football Outsiders, they are 30th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, per Pro-Football-Reference, the Packers have allowed 122.8 rushing yards, 3.9 receptions and 30.2 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs this season.
King Henry had only 53 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards last week, but he had triple-digit rushing yards in the five previous contests. Thus, this is a rebound spot for Henry.
Tannehill is a game manager with a lack of weapons and a tricky matchup. Obviously, that's not an ideal combination. Nevertheless, he had 255 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, zero interceptions and 12 rushing yards in a challenging matchup last week after a two-game absence. So, he can overcome the suboptimal context this week and is a defensible, albeit not a must-use pick.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine came out of nowhere last week for five receptions, 119 receiving yards and two touchdowns on eight targets. The third-year wideout's shocking performance was on the heels of posting three straight bagels, albeit only one when Tannehill was the starting quarterback. Westbrook-Ikhine also has a game in which he hauled in two receptions for 72 scoreless yards on his ledger this year.
Some gamers will chase Westbrook-Ikhine's points. However, his suggestion in this space is primarily driven by where he aligned last week. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Westbrook-Ikhine played a team-high 19 passing snaps aligned in the slot. Teammates Robert Woods and Treylon Burks aligned mainly on the perimeter. Since Westbrook-Ikhine is the club's preferred slot presently, he'll avoid boundary cornerback Jaire Alexander. Thus, Woods and Burks have a more daunting task aligned on the outside.
Austin Hooper was nearly invisible in the first five games of the year, failing to reach 20 receiving yards in any of those games. However, the veteran tight end has had his two best games of the year in Tannehill's last two starts. Hooper had three receptions for 56 yards in Week 7 and had five receptions for 41 yards in Week 10. The receptions last week marked a season-high, and his seven targets were also his most in a game this year.
Rookie Chigoziem Okonkwo has been a small part of Tennessee's offense, but he's demonstrated his ability to gain yards after the catch in the previous two games. Okonkwo had one reception for 48 yards in Week 9 and one for 41 in Week 10. Per PFF, he picked up 76 of his 89 yards after the catch.
Tennessee's fourth-round pick has eye-catching workout metrics. Jonnu Smith also had eye-catching measurables and a knack for gaining yards after the catch in a niche role for the Titans. Okonkwo isn't going to continue recording a 40-plus-yard reception each week. Still, he might carve out a more significant role for a team that needs pass-catching talent, and Smith has demonstrated the potential for a YAC monster in this offense.
Packers Analysis: Aaron Jones has sandwiched outstanding games around a dud. He had 143 rushing yards, four receptions and 14 receiving yards in Week 8, only 25 rushing yards, two receptions and 20 receiving yards in Week 9 and 138 rushing yards, one touchdown, two receptions and 18 receiving yards in Week 10.
So, Jones can erupt on the ground. That's an unlikely path to success against the Titans this week, though. Tennessee is first in rush defense DVOA, and teams aren't messing around with running into their stout defense. Still, Jones can chip in some production on the ground and make waves in the passing attack, keeping him on the radar for this showdown slate, despite the nightmare matchup.
The scoring burden is on Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay's passing attack this week. Tennessee's opponents have attempted 215 passes and only 96 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this season. As a result, Rodgers should air it out early and often this week.
The reigning back-to-back MVP hasn't performed at a high level this year, but he had 224 passing yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions on just 20 passes last week. Rodgers also has a less imposing matchup than the running backs since the Titans are 13th in pass defense DVOA.
Rodgers' efficient showing coincided with a healthy Christian Watson taking the cover off Dallas's defense. Watson has a freakish blend of size and speed, and he used his tools to barbecue the Cowboys for four receptions, 107 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The rookie wideout also had a 40% Target Share and earned a target on 38.1% of his routes.
Unfortunately, Watson was credited with two drops by PFF. The drops are annoying, but Watson's target rates and big-play ability are special. It's not a point-chasing move to use him on this slate.
Allen Lazard ran the most routes (23) for the Packers last week. Yet, Lazard's three receptions for 45 scoreless yards were underwhelming. A bad showing shouldn't undo Lazard's otherwise stellar production this year. Rodgers's trusted wideout has scored a touchdown in five of eight games, had a least six targets seven times and reached at least 55 receiving yards in four of his last six contests.
Sadly, according to Football Outsiders, No. 1 wideouts have averaged just 67.4 receiving yards per game against the Titans this season, fewer than the league average (69.7). The matchup isn't ideal, but Lazard might get enough volume to overcome the suboptimal matchup.
Randall Cobb was activated from IR earlier this week, opening the 21-day window for his return. He might be back this week but won't commit to a return against the Titans. Cobb hasn't played since Week 6. Therefore, he'll likely need a ramp-up period before handling a full complement of snaps. Cobb is still an exciting option at the minimum salary on DraftKings, even on a probable pitch count if he returns this week.
Samori Toure is a viable and volatile punt if Cobb is out. Green Bay's rookie wideout didn't have a touch or target on offense last week, but he ran eight routes, the same number as Sammy Watkins. The veteran reeled in all three of his targets for 47 scoreless yards, but Toure had more targets (seven versus six), receptions (three versus two) and receiving yards (71 compared to 12) than Watkins in the two prior games and the rookie even reeled in a touchdown.
Other wide receivers (wideouts Football Outsiders doesn't label the No. 1 or No. 2 wide receiver) average the most receiving yards per game (69.7) against the Titans this season. As a result, Cobb or Toure are matchup-driven punts.
Final Thoughts: Henry and Rodgers are the most enticing captain/MVP choices. Since Tennessee's offense is so Henry-centric, even if the Titans win, a slightly unbalanced lineup featuring more Packers than Titans is probably the best lineup construction.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
