There are only four teams on a bye this week, and there’s no international game on Sunday morning. Thus, this week’s main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has 11 games, with eight starting at 1:00 p.m. ET and three in the afternoon window that begins at 4:05 p.m.
Week 11 Matchups
Game: Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: ATL -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 49.0 Points
Bears Analysis: Since Week 7, Justin Fields has passed for 620 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception and steamrolled the opposition for 467 rushing yards and four touchdowns. He has a drool-inducing matchup to stay hot this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Falcons are 29th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 25th in rush defense DVOA. The lineup optimizer has a positive outlook for the second-year quarterback this week, projecting him as the QB2 in DFS this week, with the fifth-highest value score for a quarterback (QB5V) at DK and the QB3V at FD.
David Montgomery can also smash against Atlanta's lousy run defense. Per Pro-Football-Reference, running backs have thrashed the Falcons for 99.8 rushing yards, 4.6 receptions and 29.9 receiving yards per game and scored 11 touchdowns.
Montgomery is also in line for a legitimate bell-cow role since the Bears placed Khalil Herbert on the Injured Reserve (IR) this week. Montgomery handled 66% of Chicago's offensive snaps in their previous game, but not he could surge closer to his season-high 80% snap share in Week 2. The fourth-year back is an excellent selection this week and has the RB5V at FD.
Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are the top stacking options or one-off choices in Chicago's passing attack. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Mooney is ninth in Target Share (27.9%). The third-year wideout is also in a groove, reaching at least 50 receiving yards or scoring a touchdown in his last seven games and catching at least four passes in five of those contests. The matchup is sweet, too. According to Football Outsiders, No. 1 wide receivers have averaged the third-most receiving yards per game (87.0) against the Falcons.
Kmet is also rolling and in a favorable matchup this week. The young tight end has 11 receptions, 126 receiving yards, nine rushing yards and five receiving touchdowns in the previous three games. Further, tight ends average the sixth-most receiving yards per game (58.2) and have the third-most receptions (59) against the Falcons this season.
Falcons Analysis: Unfortunately, the Kyle Pitts takeover hasn't happened. Atlanta deploys a run-first offense, and Marcus Mariota is erratic and inaccurate. Nevertheless, according to SIS, Pitts is 18th in Intended Air Yards and has a 23.7% Target Share. Tight end is a weak position, and Pitts's underlying stats are reasons enough to add him to the mix this week as a one-off or bring-back from a Bears stack.
Game: Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -13.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Panthers Analysis: Baker Mayfield is starting for the Panthers, and Carolina's offense is a dumpster fire when he starts. They averaged 18.6 points per game in Mayfield's five starts. Gamers are encouraged to fade them this week.
Ravens Analysis: The Ravens are massive favorites and unlikely to be forced to keep their foot on the accelerator. Additionally, Lamar Jackson has been more good than great since an electrifying start to the year, and Mark Andrews is working through an injury, making his status for this weekend unclear. The backfield might also be a committee, and Jackson is a threat to soak up production, too. Therefore, the juice probably isn't worth the squeeze for investing in the Ravens in DFS this week.
Game: Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -8.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Browns Analysis: The Browns exceeded expectations out of the gate this year, but they've scored 20 points or less in three of their last four contests. Cleveland also has a grotesque implied total. There is no need to use them in DFS this week in a challenging matchup.
Bills Analysis: The Bills have a dream matchup this week. The Browns are 26th in pass defense DVOA and 32nd in rush defense DVOA. They also won't have to contend with the outrageous snowy conditions in Western New York since the game is moved to Detroit.
Josh Allen has had some truly ugly turnovers lately, but he's a DFS monster. He's averaged 303.7 passing yards and 52.9 rushing yards per game while adding four rushing touchdowns and 20 passing touchdowns. Buffalo's dual-threat quarterback is projected as the QB1 this week.
Stefon Diggs is also filling the box score. He's third in receptions (8.0) and receiving yards per game (109.4) and tied for third in touchdown receptions (seven) this season. Diggs should score fantasy points in bunches if Allen carves up the Browns. So, Buffalo's No. 1 wideout has a compelling case for stacking with Allen, and Diggs is projected as the WR2 at both DFS outlets this week.
Gabe Davis is a boom-or-bust field-stretching wideout. Fortunately, he has a superb matchup this week. First, No. 2 wideouts average the eighth-most receiving yards per game (55.4) against the Browns. Second, per numberFire, quarterbacks have completed 10 of 13 attempts that traveled at least 15 Air Yards for 239 yards and a touchdown in the previous three games against the Browns. And, again, Davis is a vertical weapon. According to SIS, Davis's 16.9-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT) is the second-deepest among players targeted at least 20 times in 2022.
James Cook is included on the table as a gut-feeling or galaxy-brain selection. Devin Singletary had a costly fumble at the 3:30 mark in the first half last week in field-goal range. Could it cost him playing time? Maybe. Singletary carried the ball nine times for 41 yards and two touchdowns before the fumble and toted the rock just four times for six scoreless yards after coughing it up.
Cook carried the ball twice for 15 yards, and Duke Johnson rushed once for zero yards after Singletary turned the ball over. Buffalo's second-round pick has also seen more extensive work since their Week 7 bye, despite the club trading for Nyheim Hines. Fumbles have also been a recurring theme in Singletary's career. He's lost only four but put the ball on the ground 12 times. Maybe, Singletary's most recent fumble will earn him a spot in Sean McDermott's doghouse.
Cook's floor is zero points and sliding behind Hines on the depth chart. Yet, it's possible to tell yourself a story of him overtaking Singletary on the depth chart against Cleveland's 32nd-ranked DVOA rush defense. Finally, Cook has a path to backing into DFS utility, even if his role remains unchanged. Cook has rushed 16 times for 105 yards and a touchdown when the Bills have led by at least eight points this year, rushing only one less time than Singletary. The rookie could come through at his modest salary with mop-up work if the 8.0-point favored Bills blowout the Browns.
Khalil Shakir is an exciting punt if Isaiah McKenzie's illness sidelines him this weekend. McKenzie hasn't practiced yet this week, and Shakir had five targets, three receptions, 75 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 5 when McKenzie was out.
Game: Washington Commanders at Houston Texans
Spread: WAS -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Commanders Analysis: Terry McLaurin has turned it up since Taylor Heinicke took the reigns of the offense in Week 7. McLaurin has averaged 9.0 targets, 6.0 receptions and 92.5 receiving yards per game in Heinicke's four starts this year. In addition, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), McLaurin's earned a target on 25.2% of his routes and had a blistering 2.74 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) in those games. Washington's No. 1 wideout is projected as the WR8 in DFS this week, with the WR2V at DK and tying for the WR6V at FD.
Washington's backfield should also have a field day against the Texans. Houston is 31st in rush defense DVOA, and running backs have steamrolled them for an NFL-leading 156.2 rushing yards per game and scored the most rushing touchdowns (13) against them. Brian Robinson should be the primary beneficiary of the matchup. Robinson has handled 39 rush attempts versus 25 for Antonio Gibson in the last two weeks. Sadly, Robinson hasn't been efficient. Regardless, the game script should be neutral or good for Washington and allow Ron Rivera to feed his bruising back.
Washington's defense is also an enticing pick. They've allowed fewer than 325 total yards of offense in four straight games while forcing eight turnovers and recording five sacks. The Commanders have a cupcake matchup for scoring fantasy points this week. Davis Mills has 10 turnovers and taken 23 sacks in nine games this season.
Texans Analysis: Nico Collins is playing quality football. He was knocked out of the Week 7 contest early after catching all three targets for 33 yards. Otherwise, he's been in good form, setting season highs for targets (10) and receptions (five) last week and averaging 7.0 targets, 4.0 receptions and 65.3 receiving yards in his most recent three healthy games, adding a touchdown for good measure. The second-year wideout is a desirable value selection this week and has the WR7V at DK.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: PHI -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Eagles Analysis: The Eagles dropped their first game in 2022. Still, Jalen Hurts accounted for three touchdowns (two passing and one rushing). The third-year signal-caller is blossoming this year, averaging 246.3 passing yards and 39.3 rushing yards per game while scampering for seven touchdowns and tossing 14. The dual-threat quarterback is projected as the QB3 in DFS in Week 11.
A.J. Brown is the best stacking option and a viable solo choice. The stud wideout had his worst game of the 2022 campaign in Week 10, catching only one of four targets for seven scoreless yards. Philly's No. 1 wideout entered last week on fire, though. Brown had 15 receptions, 282 receiving yards and five touchdowns in the three prior games. The fourth-year pro has a good matchup for rebounding this week. No. 1 wideouts average 71.5 receiving yards per game against the Colts this year, slightly higher than the league average (69.7).
Dallas Goedert was injured on Monday Night Football, and the club has placed him on IR. Thus, there's a vacancy to be filled in Philly's passing attack. Quez Watkins might soak up a few extra looks as the team's speedy No. 3 wideout. He's also a home-run threat against a defense that's allowed seven completions for 187 yards and one touchdown on 16 pass attempts that traveled at least 15 Air Yards in their last three contests.
Jack Stoll has played the highest percentage of snaps among Philadelphia's healthy tight ends. However, he won't necessarily be Philadelphia's preferred pass-catching tight end. Instead, Grant Calcaterra has a more enticing profile. Calcaterra briefly had his football career derailed by concussions before returning last year.
According to PFF, Calcaterra had 26 receptions, 396 yards, six touchdowns and 2.00 Y/RR in 2018, played only five games in 2019, didn't play in 2020 and had 38 receptions, 465 yards, four touchdowns and 1.38 Y/RR in his return to the gridiron last season. In his final collegiate season, Calcaterra scored in three games and had a 90-yard and 103-yard effort in 12 games.
The matchup is also appealing for rolling the dice on the rookie tight end as a punt. Tight ends average the 12th-most receiving yards per game (52.7) and are tied for the eighth-most receptions (48) and tied for the sixth-most touchdown receptions (five) against the Colts this season.
Colts Analysis: Jonathan Taylor had a game in Week 10 that harkened to his elite 2021 campaign. New head coach Jeff Saturday fed his workhorse back 22 carries and two receptions, resulting in 147 rushing yards, 16 receiving yards and a rushing touchdown. Taylor should be busy again this week against Philadelphia's leaky run defense.
Philadelphia is 28th in rush defense DVOA. Further, the Texans and Commanders leaned heavily on their running backs in the past two weeks against a defense without their run-stuffing rookie interior defensive lineman Jordan Davis. The running backs who opposed the Eagles in Week 9 and Week 10 had 68 rush attempts for 278 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Taylor can feast this week, and he's projected as the DFS RB2, with the RB6V at DK and the RB5V at FD.
Parris Campbell is another exciting selection from the Colts. Saturday reinstalled Matt Ryan as the starter, and Campbell returned to a high-volume role. The 25-year-old wide receiver has 24 receptions, 203 receiving yards and three touchdown receptions on a 24.6% Target Share in Ryan's last three starts. Campbell is a stellar selection at both DFS providers but has an eye-catching WR9V at DK.
Game: New York Jets at New England Patriots
Spread: NE -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 38.0 Points
Jets Analysis: Garrett Wilson teased his upside in Week 2, catching eight passes for 102 yards and two touchdowns when Joe Flacco was starting for the Jets. Then, he endured some hiccups after Zach Wilson returned. The rookie wideout found his footing before Gang Green's bye in Week 10, though.
Wilson had 16 targets, 14 receptions, 207 receiving yards, seven rushing yards and a 24.2% Target Share in Week 8 and Week 9 against the stingy pass defense for the Patriots and Bills. He'll take another crack at New England's defense this week after hanging six receptions and 115 yards on them in Week 8. Wilson is a sweet value option on DK, where he's tied for the WR4V.
Gang Green's defense is also an exciting option at DK, owning the DST2V. The Jets had six sacks and one interception in the first AFC East battle against the Patriots. They can shine again against Mac Jones this week. The second-year quarterback has been a mess this season. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Jones has the highest interception rate (4.2%) and 10th-highest sack rate (8.2%) among qualified quarterbacks in 2022.
Patriots Analysis: Rhamondre Stevenson is the engine in New England's offense. He's averaged 68.7 rushing yards, 3.9 receptions and 25.2 receiving yards per game and scored five touchdowns. The second-year back is game-script proof and heavily involved in the passing attack, catching at least three passes in four straight and six of his last seven. Stevenson didn't find the endzone against the Jets in Week 8, but he had 143 scrimmage yards and seven receptions. Stevenson is an excellent option, namely at DK, where he's the RB8 and has the RB2V.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Spread: NO -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 39.0 Points
Rams Analysis: The Rams were already an offensive dumpster fire. Cooper Kupp is on IR now. So, they can be entirely ignored.
Saints Analysis: The Saints are the first team to benefit from matching up against the Kupp-less Rams. New Orleans was sharp last week against another punchless offense, recording six sacks. The Saints have done a great job of sacking opposing quarterbacks this year, ranking seventh with 28. Finally, a matchup against Matthew Stafford is dreamy. Stafford has the sixth-highest sack rate (8.9%) and 10th-highest interception rate (2.8%) this season.
Game: Detroit Lions at New York Giants
Spread: NYG -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Lions Analysis: Amon-Ra St. Brown has crushed the opposition when healthy this year. He's averaged 10.5 targets, 7.3 receptions and 82.7 receiving yards per game, rushed for 70 yards and scored three touchdowns in the six games he's played a full complement of snaps this season. The second-year wideout is a volume hog and is projected as the WR5, tying for the WR4V at DK and ranking as the WR6 while tying for the WR6V at FD.
Giants Analysis: Saquon Barkley is the RB1 in DFS this week and has the matching value score. The G-Men's stud running back is second in rush attempts (198) and rushing yards per game (103.4) and has six rushing touchdowns. He's also a contributor in the passing attack, averaging 3.2 receptions and 21.9 receiving yards per game.
The Lions are likely to be his latest victim. Detroit is 27th in rush defense DVOA, and running backs average 136.2 scrimmage yards per game against them. The Lions have also allowed 5.0 yards per carry and 11 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season.
The matchup is outstanding for Big Blue's passing game as well. The Lions are 24th in pass defense DVOA. Quarterbacks have also ripped them for 372 rushing yards and four touchdowns, albeit with the help of Fields rushing for 147 yards and two touchdowns last week. Nevertheless, Daniel Jones is a talented runner and can gash them on the ground.
Jones has averaged 43.0 rushing yards per game and punched in three scores on the ground. He's also averaged 177.3 passing yards per game and thrown eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. The fourth-year quarterback's passing numbers aren't eye-catching, but they're adequate when supplemented by his rushing work. The optimizer is a fan of Jones this week at DK, projecting him for the QB1V.
Darius Slayton is the top option in New York's passing attack and a desirable dart. Since Week 5, he's averaged 3.0 receptions and 63.2 receiving yards per game while splashing paydirt twice. Slayton can stay hot against Detroit's lackluster pass defense. No. 1 wideouts have tallied the fifth-most receiving yards per game (83.4) against the Lions this season.
Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Spread: DEN -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Raiders Analysis: The Raiders have an implied total of 19.25 points. So, as good as Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams are, it's easy to fade them at their respective salaries since they're attached to a projected low-scoring team.
Broncos Analysis: Greg Dulcich had three rock-solid games to open his career before stumbling last week. One rough game isn't grounds for ignoring Dulcich from now on. The pass-catching tight end is averaging 3.3 receptions and 48.3 receiving yards per game with one touchdown in four games. He's projected as the TE5 in DFS this week, with the TE1V at DK and tying for the TE2V at FD.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: DAL -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys have scored 24, 49 and 28 points since Dak Prescott returned from the IR in Week 7. In those three games, he averaged 240.7 passing yards per game and tossed six touchdowns and three interceptions while chipping in 40 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.
The matchup is good for Prescott this week. The Vikings have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (262.9). The game's pace should also be DFS-friendly. According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys are third in situation-neutral pace, and the Vikings are seventh. Prescott is the trigger man for the favorite in a potential shootout that should be played at a speedy tempo. That's a recipe for success. Prescott is projected as the QB6 at both providers, with the QB3V at FD.
CeeDee Lamb is the most tantalizing option from the Cowboys. He's in a mouthwatering matchup and in lockstep with Prescott. First, No. 1 wideouts have averaged the sixth-most receiving yards per game (82.6) against Minnesota.
Second, slot wideouts have thrashed them, and Lamb has routinely lined up in the slot. Per PFF, Lamb has played 59.2% of his passing snaps aligned in the slot since Prescott returned from the IR. Meanwhile, according to PFF, Minnesota's cornerback Chandon Sullivan has allowed the most receptions (38), receiving yards (497) and Yards After the Catch (321) and the sixth-highest Quarterback Rating (120.1) among cornerbacks and safeties who've played at least 70 coverage snaps aligned in the slot.
Revisiting Lamb's connection with Prescott, he's been targeted on 28.3% of his routes and had 20 receptions, 297 receiving yards, 3.00 Y/RR and three touchdowns in three games since Prescott returned. Lamb is popping in the optimizer, projecting as the WR3 this week with the WR1V at both DFS providers.
Dalton Schultz has turned his season around with Dallas's starting quarterback back in the fold. Of course, Schultz also played through a knee injury, which likely also hurt his production. Nonetheless, among 25 tight ends targeted at least 12 times since Week 7, Schultz is first in Yards per Route Run (2.57 Y/RR). Prescott's reliable safety valve has garnered a target on 27.5% of his routes in his past three games and hauled in 17 receptions for 177 yards and a touchdown. Schultz is projected as the TE3 this week, with the TE3V at DK and tying for the TE2V at FD.
Vikings Analysis: Justin Jefferson lit the Packers on fire in Week 1, scuffled for two weeks and has been unstoppable since. He's had at least 98 receiving yards and six receptions in six straight contests. Jefferson is sixth in Target Share (29.2%), fifth in Intended Air Yards (1,008), tied for 16th in receiving touchdowns (four), fourth in receptions per game (8.0) and first in receiving yards per game (117.8) this season.
The matchup is challenging, but Jefferson is matchup-proof. He's projected as the WR1 in Week 11 and has the WR2V at FD.
Dalvin Cook has a good matchup and is on a roll as well. Running backs have the seventh-most rushing yards per game (112.1) against the Cowboys, and Green Bay's running backs just shoved it down their throat in Week 10 for 203 rushing yards and one touchdown on 37 attempts. Cook is equipped to carve them up, averaging 80.8 rushing yards per game with 5.0 yards per carry and six touchdowns. Minnesota's lead back also doesn't have to sweat a negative game script since he dominates the backfield's passing game work. Finally, Cook looks good in the optimizer, projecting as this week's RB6 and tying for the RB6V at FD.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: CIN -4.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals had a brutal showing in their first game without Ja'Marr Chase this year in Week 8 but rebounded with aplomb in Week 9. Cincinnati leaned heavily on Joe Mixon in Week 9, but that might be an unsuccessful approach against Pittsburgh this week since the Steelers are seventh in rush defense DVOA. Moreover, the Bengals struggled mightily in Week 1 against the Steelers. Therefore, fading Cincinnati is a reasonable move.
Steelers Analysis: The Steelers have played two games this year with superstar edge rusher T.J. Watt healthy. They held the Bengals to 20 points, forced five turnovers and sacked Joe Burrow seven times in Week 1. Then, they kept the Saints to 10 points, forced two turnovers and had two sacks in Watt's return last week. Minkah Fitzpatrick might rejoin the Steelers after last week's absence while recovering from an appendectomy and would add an impactful player to the secondary if he suits up. This week, the Steelers are a value DST option, owning the DST1V at DK and DST5V at FD.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
