Here are my fantasy football rankings for Week 10. You can find our expert consensus fantasy football rankings for the week here. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings, and analysis.

• Pat Fitzmaurice’s Weekly Rankings
• Matthew Freedman’s Weekly Rankings
• Derek Brown’s Weekly Rankings
• Joe Pisapia’s Weekly Rankings

Be sure to check out my following notes on all the players/matchups this week from a season-long, DFS, player props, etc. perspective that shed light on “how the sausage is made” when it comes to finalizing my Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings.

Enjoy!

Check out all of our Week 10 fantasy football content

BYE WEEK TEAMS: Patriots, Jets, Bengals, Ravens

(Thursday Night Football)

Falcons at Panthers

• D’Onta Foreman got game-scripted out in Week 8, totaling just 7 carries for 23 yards and 2 catches on 3 targets. Raheem Blackshear was the more involved receiver out-of-the-backfield (4 for 40 on 4 targets). Blackshear also scored a touchdown from inside the 10-yard line. However, Foreman still played the most snaps and earned the most opportunities despite the game getting out of hand. That bodes well for him to maintain the RB1 role on Thursday night with Chuba Hubbard making his return. Foreman is just one week removed from a 118-rushing yard and 3-TD performance versus the Falcons back in Week 8.
• PJ Walker was benched for Baker Mayfield in the second half of Week 9. The Carolina WRs were all disappointing for the most part. D.J. Moore totaled 2 catches for 24 receiving yards on 6 targets. Terrace Marshall also saw 6 targets and scored in the 4th quarter. Moore and Marshall both posted 25% target shares with Mayfield under center. Although Marshall was more productive, catching 3 of his 5 targets for 53 yards plus 1 TD. It’s good news for Moore’s fantasy outlook for the rest of the season that Walker will be the starting quarterback on Thursday night. Moore’s target share with Walker in the last two weeks sat at 37%.
• But that’s no reason to shy away from Marshall, who has been productive in his last three games with a full-time role. 21% target share averaging double-digit PPR points per game. It’s a great matchup versus the Falcons, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to WRs this season. Marshall caught four of nine targets for 87 yards the last time he played Atlanta.
• Cordarrelle Patterson returned to the starting lineup in Week 9, leading the Falcons in carries (13 for 44 yards) and 2 rushing TDs. C-Patt posted a 42% opportunity share, playing 39% of the snaps. However, he did not completely take over the backfield as Tyler Allgeier (38% snap share) carried the ball 10 times for 99 yards. Caleb Huntley (21% snap share) also remained involved with 7 carries for 34 yards. None were overly engaged as receivers, per usual. I understand the “idea” to sell high on C-Patt based on his principles behind his low snap share, but this is exactly how they used him last year. Also possible his snaps will increase another week back from injury. Don’t want to move him with the Panthers up next (4th in rushing yards allowed per game this season to RBs, 6th in TD rate allowed). If anything buy-low on Tyler Allgeier who will likely still stay plenty involved in the NFL’s most run-happy offense. He generated four of the Falcons’ biggest plays on offense with chunk gains of 44 yards, 24 yards, 10 yards and 9 yards.
• The Falcons have the 7th-highest implied team total on the slate, which puts Marcus Mariota in the streaming conversation. His best game of the year came against the Panthers in Week 8, where he totaled a season-high 253 passing yards and 3 passing TDs.
• Kyle Pitts also had a career day: 5 catches for 80 yards and one touchdown on 9 targets while running a route on 87% of dropbacks. His 32% target share and 9 targets were a season-high…also tied for 2nd-most in his career. With Pitts coming off another week of heavy involvement – 30% target share, 37% target rate and 208 air yards to boot – I’d go right back to him in a matchup we have already seen him perform in.
• Drake London has fallen completely off the grid in fantasy circles, and he bottomed out last week going 3 for 23 on 7 targets (30% target share). However, London commanded 5 red-zone targets and the passing offense forced looks his way when they closed in on scoring. Carolina ranks 30th in red-zone scoring attempts faced per game, so London has a shot at scoring in Week 10.

Favorite DFS plays

• Cordarrelle Patterson ($11,800)
• Marcus Mariota ($10,200)
• D.J. Moore ($9,200)
• Drake London ($8,200)
• Kyle Pitts ($7,000)
• Tyler Allgeier ($6,200)
• Chuba Hubbard ($5,800)
• Falcons DST ($5,200)
• Caleb Huntley ($4,800)
• Tommy Tremble ($3,200)

Seahawks at Buccaneers (in Germany)

• The volume won’t stop coming for Chris Godwin. He has been completely peppered with targets over the last four weeks, totaling 46 targets (11.5 per game), although the production has not followed. He’s averaged just 9.6 fantasy points per game (WR35) and scored zero TDs. But the volume alone does offer Godwin a secure floor, especially in a matchup versus a Seahawks defense that forces targets into the middle of the field.
• Seattle’s defense ranks No. 1 in the fewest fantasy points allowed to the perimeter (6.2/gm), but 15th to the slot (19.2). Seahawks rookie slot CB Coby Bryant ranks second in yards and catches allowed from the inside this season.
• Tampa Bay is similar to Seattle in that fashion, as they allow more fantasy points to slot WRs than perimeter ones. They actually rank second in most targets allowed to No. 2 WRs this season (7 per game). DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have posted nearly identical production in their last 3 games fully played together. Although Metcalf has a higher target share (24% vs 19%).
• Mike Evans is dealing with a rib injury, so it’s very possible we see a “down game” from him production-wise based on him gutting out playing in a bad matchup.
• Tom Brady‘s TD rate is the lowest of his career so far at 2.5% as he has thrown 10 TDs in nine games played. The Buccaneers have struggled immensely in the red zone ranking only ahead of Denver and Indianapolis in the red-zone TD-conversion rate. Unlike the Rams’ elite red-zone defense (except for the end of the game), Seattle’s red-zone defense is below average. Factor that with Brady throwing 44 times per game (1st) against a pass defense that ranks 7th-worst in pass defense EPA, and the Buccaneers quarterback is firmly in the fantasy QB1 conversation for Week 10.
• The gap is narrowing. Leonard Fournette saw just one more carry than Rachaad White (8 vs 9) in Week 9 despite out-snapping him 62% to 35%. Fournette did finish with more targets (7 vs 3) and routes (35 vs 17). But White’s 11 touches were the highest they’ve been over the past three weeks. As Lombardi Lenny continues to run inefficiently – 2.1 yards per carry in Week 9, dead last in the NFL in rushing EPA – you want to get out from underneath him and gain exposure to White wherever possible. Use Fournette’s brand name plus another piece to trade him ASAP.
• As for Week 10’s prospects, you are just praying that Fournette gets there with receiving usage. But he only has 13 targets over his last 3 games versus White’s 8. And Fournette only has 3 more catches. The matchup versus Seattle’s zone-heavy defense does suggest that Fournette will at least offer a fantasy floor. Their defense ranks fourth in receiving yards and 6th in receptions to RBs this season.
• Kenneth Walker is a MONSTER. 26 carries for 109 rushing yards and two rushing TDs in addition to four targets (3 for 20) in Week 9. All in all, 85% opportunity share. Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas combined for two carries. He’s matchup-proof with his bellcow role and efficient rushing.
• Noah Fant led the Seahawks in targets (6) and receiving yards (96) in a plus-matchup in Week 9 versus the Arizona Cardinals. His final receiving statline is inflated from a late 51-yard catch-and-run, but that’s the benefit to relying on a guy like Fant; his athleticism can give you that kind of upside that the Zach Ertz-molds cannot. And besides, he led the team in targets and receiving in the 1st half alone and ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks – well ahead of Will Dissly (37%). Very-much stream-worthy versus Tampa Bay in Week 10.
• This game should experience offensive fireworks on both sides of the ball with the highest projected pace of play in Week 10 per Brandon Gdula’s NFL pace and pass rate report.

Favorite DFS plays

• Chris Godwin ($7,200)
• Tyler Lockett ($8,600)
• DK Metcalf ($8,400)
• Cade Otton ($5,400)
• Rachaad White ($5,000)
• Seahawks DST ($3,600)
• Travis Homer ($1,800)
• Dee Eskridge ($200)

Sunday Early Afternoon Slate

Vikings at Bills

• Vikings slot CB Chandon Sullivan has been a sieve on defense this season. He has allowed the most receiving yards from the slot (454). Bodes well for Isaiah McKenzie to provide WR3 appeal. The Bills slot WR played 66% of the snaps and ran a route on 69% of dropbacks in Week 9…both were season highs.
• Besides the slot, the other big issue for the Vikings defense is in the red zone. They rank 32nd in red zone defense TD-conversion rate allowed this season. But they also rank 1st in the fewest red-zone scoring attempts. Ergo, they have been great in between the 20s on defense, but crumble when teams do enter the scoring area.
• Bills RB1 Devin Singletary leads the team in the red-zone opportunities (18) and played 74% of the snaps for the Bills in Week 9. He has only scored once this season and has zero rushing TDs. If Josh Allen is hindered at all by his elbow injury or can’t go, it could create a more favorable situation for Singletary. Allen has contributed to to the largest percentage of his teams TDs this season. So if there were ever a game were you could bank on TD regression kicking in for Singletary…it would be this week. His 347 total rushing yards and 11 RZ carries are most of any running back with zero rushing TDs this season.
• Although the matchup is not great. Vikings rank top-5 in fewest rushing yards allowed to RBs and third in lowest yards per carry (3.8). 
• This game does not project to be fast-paced (6th-lowest on the week) and that will be a problem especially if Allen does not play. He’s been labeled day-to-day which to me suggests that he will miss Week 10. The total has dropped from 49.5 to 44 (as of Wednesday).
• Case Keenum is one of the league’s better backups having last started for the Browns in 2021. In those two games he averaged just under 200 passing yards and 1.5 passing TDs. I wouldn’t be concerned about Stefon Diggs, considering these two have chemistry going back to their days in Minnesota. I would feel okay about benching Gabriel Davis if possible, as his boom-or-bust profile is heightened to bust even more with the obvious downgrade at QB. Same for tight end Dawson Knox. Gabe Davis…just 2 red-zone targets this season. Diggs leads team (13) followed by Singletary (7). 
• First game as Viking for T.J. Hockenson, with virtually no ramp-up. 9 catches for 70 yards on 9 targets (24% target share) while playing 91% of the snaps and running a route on 86% of dropbacks. This role was better than any role Irv Smith Jr. ever had all season. Hock’s a locked-and-loaded fantasy TE1 for the rest of the 2022 season.
• Although the Vikings’ 20-point implied team total is concerning for quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Vikings passer has only faced one pass defense inside the top-5 this year in pass defense EPA (Eagles, Week 2) and had his worst fantasy performance of the season. Buffalo ranks 5th in pass defense EPA and passer rating faced this season (76.4).
• The early forecasts for this game include: SNOW. Not ideal for a dome team playing on the road.

Lions at Bears

• The Bears have the 5th-highest implied team total.
• And this game has the second-highest projected pace of play (No. 1 on the Sunday main slate)
• Therefore, we should have to see the Lions keep pace in some capacity. And that production will certainly come through Amon-Ra St. Brown and his 31% target rate per run. The matchup in the slot is one that should see him produce a massive game. Bears cornerback Kyler Gordon ranks second in catches and second in yards allowed from the slot this season.
• St. Brown dominated the targets (38%, 35% target rate) while running a route on 100% of the dropbacks in Week 8. But the second-year WR finished just 4 catches for 55 yards on 9 targets. He also posted a ridiculous 84% air yards share, as the only target Jared Goff was considering downfield.
• With Justin Fields doing it all in Week 9, not much was left over for the RBs. David Montgomery totaled 36 rushing yards on 14 carries and Khalil Herbert went 7 for 23. Monty also earned 2 targets for a 70% opportunity share. Montgomery has dominated the snaps for two straight weeks, so the coaching staff doesn’t seem to be embracing the shift to drinking the Herbert juice as many fantasy managers had hoped.
• However, Herbert still leads the Bears in rushing yards over the last four weeks (258 at 6.2 yards per carry vs 218 at 3.7 yards per carry) despite 17 fewer carries than Montgomery.
• The carry difference is just 6 rushing attempts between the two backs the last two weeks with Montgomery playing 107 snaps versus Herbert’s 43. With the Lions bottom-ranked run defense up next, both Bears RBs need to be in starting lineups.
• It’s the same case with the Lions running backs. No team has allowed more rushing TDs per game than Chicago, so it’s a safe bet to make Jamaal Williams finding the end zone. He ranks second in carries inside the 10-yard line (20) and has 95% of the team’s carries from inside the 10-yard line.
• D’Andre Swift is more tricky to navigate based on his limited snaps. Swift earned just 2 carries for 10 yards (fewer than Justin Jackson, who went 4 for 27) in Week 9. Swift did see receiving usage, catching 3 of 4 targets for 40 yards (57% target rate per route run, 17% target share). Swift’s explosiveness was on full display considering he averaged 10 yards per touch. However, his snap share (16%, 9 snaps played) amid his ongoing injury issues is a real concern. Coaches have been more vocal about getting him more involved, but to what extent remains to be seen. Worth noting that the Lions play 3 games over a 12-day span with Thanksgiving approaching.
• Cole Kmet has a great role all season – 82% route participation, 97% snap share in Week 9 – and he’s finally converting it into production. 3 TDs in his last two games, and season-highs in catches (5) and targets (4) versus the Miami Dolphins. He’s more than stream-worthy in a plus-matchup versus the Lions in Week 10. They rank 4th in fantasy points allowed to TEs this season.
• Darnell Mooney has a 30% target share in his last five games, averaging 4.8 catches per game for 57 receiving yards. It’s another great spot for him as the Chicago Bears primary slot receiver versus the Lions. Detroit ranks second-worst in fantasy points allowed to slot WRs this season.

Favorite DFS plays

• Justin Fields ($6,500)
• Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,900)
• Cole Kmet ($3,400)

Jaguars at Chiefs

• The Chiefs have the highest implied team total on the slate
• Keep playing JuJu Smith-Schuster. He ranks fourth in the NFL in yards after the catch among WRs this season and that is where Jacksonville’s secondary has been shredded. Fourth in total YAC allowed this season. JuJu leads all Chiefs WRs in slot snaps this season, which means he will see plenty of Jaguars inside cornerback Darious Williams. Williams has faced the second-most targets (41) in the slot this season.
• Smith-Schuster over the last four weeks leads KC in receiving yards averaging just north of 8 targets per game (19% target share).
• This is a matchup that I do anticipate the Jacksonville Jaguars keeping up to some extent. KC ranks 3rd-worst in red zone defense, 7th in passing yards allowed per game to QBs, and 4th in fantasy points per game allowed to RBs. 4th in total missed tackles.
• Travis Etienne Jr. is a no-doubt top-5 running back this week, after seeing 27-plus touches the last two weeks.
• The Chiefs’ backfield is on the opposite end of the spectrum. Isiah Pacheco is the “starter” and led the team with 5 carries for 5 yards in Week 9. Clyde Edwards-Helaire totaled 4 carries for 5 yards, but also saw two targets. Jerick McKinnon dominated the backfield touches (9) and snaps (62%) in the pass-heavy game plan. 6 for 40 receiving on 8 targets (64% route participation). There are no parts of this backfilled you can feasibly trust aside from the hope one plunges into the end zone. CEH was that guy to start the year, but Pacheco’s increased usage suggests he would be in line for goal-line duties potentially. Jacksonville has allowed the second-highest rushing TD rate over the last 3 weeks. But the most likely outcome is that the Chiefs totally abandon the run game like in Week 9. The only team that is allowing fewer rushing before contact per attempt than the Titans this season, is the Jaguars (1.13).
• Start Christian Kirk. He’s been a fantasy contributor in good matchups and the Chiefs present him with that opportunity in Week 10. Their defense ranks inside the top 5 in fantasy points allowed per game to slot WRs. The Jaguars WR has a 26% target share and 18 catches in his last 3 games.
• Kadarius Toney only played 9 snaps, but started in Week 9 and was targeted immediately. He finished with 3 targets for 12 yards (33% target rate) catching his two passes from the slot. His role should only increase in the Chiefs offense, making him a screaming buy-low/stash option after doing nothing special in the final box score. Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ran 56 routes and was targeted once (2% target rate per route run). Woof. MVS remains a boom-or-bust WR4 that will be difficult to trust in lineups with a severe lack of consistent play. Mecole Hardman has actually been more consistent, averaging 5 touches per game over his last four games. He has more catches, targets, and yards than MVS despite averaging a 51% snap share to Valdes-Scantling’s 72% snap share.
• Hardman has missed practice all week, which could set up Toney to have an expanded role in his second game from the slot.

Mecole Hardman with 3 straight DNPs…

Kadarius Toney caught his 2 receptions from the slot in Week 9…(33% target rate) on 9 snaps (50% slot rate).

Jaguars slot cornerback Darious Williams has faced the second-most targets (41) this season…

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 11, 2022

Favorite DFS plays

• Travis Etienne ($7,100)
• Patrick Mahomes ($7,900)
• JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,000)
• Christian Kirk ($5,900)
• Travis Kelce ($7,800)
• Evan Engram ($3,300)

Browns at Dolphins

• The Browns are allowing the league’s second-highest rushing TD percentage (57%) and the No.1-highest rate when playing on the road this season (86%).
• That creates confidence in starting RBs from the Dolphins backfield. Raheem Mostert (9) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (9) split carries, drives and snaps in Week 9, but Mostert scored on the ground. Wilson hit higher rushing yardage total (51 vs 26) and was more involved as a receiver with 3 targets and more routes run (42% versus 39%). He also scored through the air. It’s looking like a complete 50/50 split, with a potential slight lean towards Wilson considering it was his first game with the Dolphins and he earned a 52% opportunity share on more snaps played. He finished the Week as the RB10 in his second-most productive outing of the season. But because Mostert still scored, I think he still has enough value to be traded before Week 10. That’s the move to make. But in the meantime, both guys can be started in fantasy lineups.
• This game projects as the slowest in Week 10 in terms of the pace of play. However, that’s only in cases where the Browns can successfully establish the run and play bully ball. But the Dolphins’ major strength on defense is against the run. 3rd-fewest rushing yards allowed and 2nd-fewest yards per carry faced (3.6).
• I’d envision Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle having no problem passing the ball against the Browns defense that ranks inside the bottom 10 in several passing efficiency metrics. Cleveland ranks fourth in yards per reception and 5th in fantasy points allowed per game to perimeter WRs. Hill ranks first in the NFL in receiving yards per game (122.7). Waddle ranks fourth (90.2).
• The Browns have also yet to face a passing game as good as the Dolphins yet this season, as several offenses they have faced have featured either backup QBs or ones that were missing healthy No. 1 WRs.
• Donovan Peoples-Jones ran more routes (100% route participation, 96% snap share) than Amari Cooper in Week 8 and was also productive with 81 receiving yards on 4 catches (4 targets, 20% target share). DPJ is a must-stash and cheap trade target for when Deshaun Watson returns. No WR has more receiving yards (417) without a TD score than Peoples-Jones this season. He’s in a great spot as an upside WR3 this week versus the Miami Dolphins defense that ranks fourth-worst in pass defense EPA. And I’d be hard-pressed to not mention the Amari Cooper home/road splits. At home, Cooper never finished worse than WR24. On the road, never better than WR32. Peoples-Jones’ road averages: 29% target share, 67 receiving yards, and just under 6 catches per game.
  
• Since Week 4, Peoples-Jones is the WR34 in points per game. He also leads the Browns in receiving yards and catches.
• David Njoku should also be started if he plays. Dolphins rank 3rd in fantasy points allowed to TEs this season. However, he has been ruled out. Do not play Harrison Bryant, who played in a limited role filling-in for Njoku before the team’s bye week. 

Favorite DFS plays

• Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,500)
• Tyreek Hill ($9,100)
• Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700)
• Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,300)

Texans at Giants

• Somehow, this game projects as the fourth-fastest game on Sunday’s slate and the second-fastest on the main slate of games.
• So there will be some fantasy points scored, most likely from each team’s starting running back. Texans rank last in fantasy points allowed to RBs and Giants rank fourth in yards per carry allowed to opposing RBs (5.4).
• Saquon Barkley and Dameon Pierce rank second/third respectively in touches per game this season.
• Daniel Jones is averaging 8 carries for 45 rushing yards per game. His rushing floor combined with a matchup versus the lowly Texans puts him on the streaming radar. Houston hasn’t given up a ton of fantasy production to QBs because teams always run over them…but they aren’t great when teams do elect to throw. 8th highest yards per attempt and 5th-highest yards per completion allowed this season. Jones is the QB16 in points per game since Week 4 (16.4).
  
• I’d start Wan’Dale Robinson in deeper PPR formats. He went just 2 for 15 on 3 targets in Week 8 but saw his route participation increase from 78% to 85% from the week prior. Leads team in catches (11) since returning from injury back in Week 6. Darius Slayton is another interesting dart-throw as a fantasy WR3/4. Leads the Giants in receiving yards the last two weeks with a 20% target share (62 receiving yards per game).
• Nico Collins is expected to play and I like his upside in a matchup versus an extremely blitz and man-heavy Giants defense. He owns a 29% target share, 40% air yards share and 2.77 yards per route run versus man coverage this season.

Favorite DFS plays

• Saquon Barkley ($8,600)
• Dameon Pierce ($6,300)
• Nico Collins ($4,000)

Saints at Steelers

• Things have gone from bad to worse for the Steelers starting running back Najee Harris. I for one think that he has not been playing fully healthy after dealing with a foot injury during the preseason. Nevertheless, Pittsburgh is planning on reducing Harris’ workload – 13.5 carries and 3.5 targets per game – to involve rookie Jaylen Warren more out of the bye week. Warren ranks 8th in NFL in rushing EPA among RBs. Harris ranks 5th-worse. The usage change probably makes Harris someone to get away from in starting lineups if you have the luxury to do so and makes Warren an interesting FLEX option in deeper formats.
• Chris Olave‘s target share reign continues. 32% target share in Week 9, catching 6 of his 9 targets for 71 receiving yards. Olave owns a 29% target share since Week 2. He’s in an absolute smash spot this week versus the Steelers defense that ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to WRs this season.
• George Pickens will undoubtedly become a larger part of the Steelers passing game in lieu of the Chase Claypool trade. He leads the team in receiving yards since Week 4 despite totaling zero receiving yards on 3 targets back in Week 8. But he ran a route on 94% of dropbacks, saw two deep targets and one red-zone target.
• And even though Diontae Johnson continues to see high target volume – 23% target share since Week 4 – his efficiency continues to leave so much desired. He has one top-30 finish in half-point scoring this season and zero top-36 finishes in 5 games played with Kenny Pickett playing. Pickens has three top-22 finishes since Week 4. Buy the rookie with him taking on more of Claypool’s 18% vacated target share.
• Before playing a WR-less Ravens offense in Week 9, the Saints ranked in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to WRs.
• Juwan Johnson saw his usage tick back up to 83% route participation in Week 9, but that usage resulted in just two targets for 42 yards. But you’ll take the elite usage with a 41-yard TD score all day every day. Kudos to being on the field a ton. I like his matchup from the slot in Week 10 versus the Steelers, who rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to WRs in the slot. Although Johnson is not a “WR” by designation, he has played 50% of his snaps from the slot this season. Among TEs from the slot: 5th in receiving yards, 5th in catch rate, 3rd in passer rating targeted.

Favorite DFS plays

• Chris Olave ($6,800)
• George Pickens ($5,000)
• Steelers DST ($2,800)

Broncos at Titans

• If you didn’t already need more of a reason to not play any Titans WRs…Denver ranks No. 1 versus the position this season. They also rank No. 1 in the NFL in red-zone defense, but the Titans rank No. 1 in the NFL in red-zone offense, scoring touchdowns on a league-high 80% of red-zone trips.
• Back in Week 8, Latavius Murray out-carried Melvin Gordon (14 vs 9). The latter saw more targets (4 vs 2), played a larger snap share (56% vs 44%) and ran more routes. Both scored rushing TDs. Gordon still remains the starter, but Murray has the equity to score every week in a full-blown 1A-1B RB committee in Denver. However, I would not bet on that happening versus a Titans defense that has allowed the lowest rushing TD rate (11%) to their opponents this season. Chase Edmonds‘ addition also further complicates this backfield, as his pass-catching skills could cap the receiving upside for MG3.
• Similar to TB12, Russell Wilson‘s struggled immensely in throwing TDs this season. His 2.6% TD rate is egregiously below his career average (6.2%) as the Broncos offense has stalled in the red zone. However, Tennessee’s defense provides the perfect launch pad to get the Denver offense off the ground. No team has allowed a higher percentage of scores through the air than the Titans (83%). The Titans are the quintessential pass-funnel defense (No.1 in pass-play rate faced) so the volume will be there for Russ and all of his pass-catchers to deliver worthwhile fantasy football performances.
• The Broncos rank 10th in rushing yards allowed this season, at 5 yards per clip. 3rd in total missed tackles on defense. Start Derrick Henry and no other Titan.
• In Russell Wilson‘s last two starts, Jerry Jeudy owns a 28% target share. Some of that is matchup-based, but the volume the former first-rounder is seeing cannot be ignored. The matchup in Week 10 is also favorable for another solid outing for Jeudy against backup slot safety Joshua Kalu who is replacing an injured Amani Hooker. He has allowed a 92% completion rate in coverage this season.
• Start Courtland Sutton. Sutton finished with just one catch on 4 targets for 13 yards in Week 8 despite running a route on 97% of dropbacks. Elite usage, but nothing to show for it. But with a favorable matchup versus the Titans Sutton should be in starting lineups. The Broncos No. 1 WR ranks as the WR22 in expected fantasy points per game and 7th in expected receiving TDs (4.5). He leads the Broncos with 9 red-zone targets but has scored just once. Positive regression should be coming against the Titans who have allowed the highest passing TD rate this season (4th-most to WRs) in addition to allowing the third-most fantasy points to WRs overall and to the perimeter.
• Rookie Greg Dulcich led the Broncos in receiving yards (4-87) on 5 targets (114 air yards) while playing 80% of the snaps and running a route on 91% of dropbacks in Week 8. He’s a weekly starter after an impressive 3 games to start his NFL career. 17% target share on an average of 4 receptions for 61 receiving yards. It’s not by chance that Dulcich’s return has negatively correlated with Sutton’s dip in production. The Titans rank third in receiving yards and targets allowed to TEs this season.

Favorite DFS plays

• Russell Wilson ($5,900)
• Jerry Jeudy ($5,700)
• Courtland Sutton ($5,600)
• Greg Dulcich ($3,400)

Sunday Late Afternoon Slate

Colts at Raiders

• Michael Pittman Jr. owns a 30% target share with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback for the last two weeks. That has translated into 10 catches for 75 yards on 15 targets (5 yards per target).
• The Colts fired head coach Frank Reich this past week, hiring Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. Saturday has never coached at the NFL level and his only coaching experience comes from high school. Parks Frazier will be the team’s play caller for the remainder of 2022. He has never called plays before.
• It’s obviously concerning for the Colts’ entire outlook on offense, that I would look to shy away from using any of them in starting lineups.
• The battle in the trenches leans in favor of the Raiders’ defensive line in both run and pass situations per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart. Las Vegas is allowing the third-fewest rushing yards before contact (1.14). Indy’s OL is allowing the league’s 5th-highest pressure rate and sack conversion rate. All the reasons you need to start the Raiders DST.
• It’s a shame that Indianapolis’ horrible offense is holding them back because their defense has been a stout unit this season. 3rd in run defense EPA. The Raiders have the second-worst OL/DL matchup on the ground in Week 10.
• The Colts pass defense has also been solid, allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (207) and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs.
• Davante Adams ranks third in target share (32%) this season. Josh Jacobs ranks 6th in touches per game (20.4).

Favorite DFS plays

• Colts DST ($2,500)
• Josh Jacobs ($7,600)
• Mack Hollins ($4,200)
• Foster Moreau ($3,200)

Cowboys at Packers

• Green Bay has the fifth-lowest implied team total. Deservedly so for an underwhelming offense that is up against a defense that ranks third in total EPA on defense. No. 1 in pressure rate. Good luck Aaron Rodgers.
• The Packers strength on defense is in their pass defense (second-fewest passing yards allowed per game), but their run defense is atrocious. 3rd in rushing yards allowed to RBs and first in rush rate faced. Offenses know they can run the ball on the Packers, and do it willingly. More so now than ever with LB Rashan Gary out for the season.
• In Dak Prescott‘s last two starts the team has run an extremely balanced offense between rushing and passing – 0% pass rate over expectation – so I’d expect them to embrace the ground game in the favorable matchup.
• That means you start both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott as fantasy RB2s. The workload distribution is anybody’s guess as the team refuses to unleash Pollard. But the Cowboys uber-explosive back and NFL leader in yards per carry (6.2) has shown that he can get the job done even on a limited workload.
• A.J. Dillon mustered 11 carries for 34 yards plus 4 targets, 2 catches and 10 receiving yards in relief of Aaron Jones, who left Week 9 with an ankle injury. Reports have been optimistic about Jones’ ankle and his availability to play this week, but let’s be real here. Ankle injuries have nuked the fantasy values of several RBs this season, and the Packers offense is hardly one that is creating a favorable offensive environment for its players. Dillon will force his way into touches as the healthier of the 2 RBs, making this a backfield to fade in Week 10. The Cowboys are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points and receptions per game to RBs.
• CeeDee Lamb went 5-77-1 on 7 targets in Week 8, but tight end Dalton Schultz also saw seven targets turning out 6 for 75 (27% target share). He’s back on the TE1 radar with Dak Prescott under center. No less than 49 receiving yards and 5 catches for Schultz in his 3 starts with Prescott this season. Start him coming off the bye week.
• Josiah Deguara out-targeted Robert Tonyan (5 to 4) and led the team in catches (5) in Week 9. Tonyan played just 46% of the snaps and ran a route on just 49% of the dropbacks. Poor usage for a fantasy tight end. Even if there’s “no competition for targets” Tonyan has just been too inconsistent to confidently start, with his role teetering seemingly every week.
• Allen Lazard was back to fantasy WR1 status after a week missed. 4 catches for 87 yards and 1 TD on 10 targets (25% target share). He ran a route on 96% of the dropbacks, earned 5 targets of 20-plus air yards and three red-zone targets. His rookie teammate Samori Toure saw 3 deep targets as well, playing in for the injured Romeo Doubs. Doubs is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain. Toure ran a route on 47% of dropbacks and has commanded 4 targets in back-to-back weeks.

Favorite DFS plays

• Dalton Schultz ($3,800)

Cardinals at Rams

• Rondale Moore profited greatly from a plus-matchup in the slot in Week 9 versus Seattle, but his prospects may not be as great in Week 10 versus the Rams. LA has stifled slot receivers, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game. However, that doesn’t make Moore an outright “sit”, especially considering how productive he has been in games where he has been the No. 1 slot WR. Backup Greg Dortch in this same matchup back in Week 3 caught 9 balls for 81 yards on 10 targets while playing 95% of his snaps from the slot.
• This game has the chance to go from bad to ugly. The total opened at 43 and has been bet down to 41 in lieu of QB injuries for both teams. Kyler Murray is dealing with a day-to-day hamstring injury and Matthew Stafford is in concussion protocol. Woof.
• In James Conner‘s return to the starting lineup, he handled 7 of the 12 RB carries for 45 rushing yards. But his biggest impact was as a receiver, catching all 5 of his targets for 19 yards while running a route on 66% of the dropbacks. 67% opportunity share and 71% snap share overall for Conner after missing 3 games.
• It’s a brutal matchup for Conner versus the Rams defense in Week 10. No RB will have a bigger disadvantage when it comes to OL/DL matchup per PFF. Not to mention, Los Angeles is facing the fourth-fewest rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line, making it unlikely Conner bails you out with a TD. He’s nothing more than a floor RB2 with his fantasy points coming from his receiving usage. Rams are a bottom-10 defense in most receiving categories to RBs. Conner also saw 5 targets when he first played the Rams back in Week 3.
• Cooper Kupp has totaled fewer than 79 receiving yards once this season. Week 3 versus Arizona, where he caught just 4 passes for 44 yards on 6 targets.
• Expect a bounce-back from DeAndre Hopkins. He boasts a 30% target share (11 targets/per game) and 47% air yards share (99 receiving yards per game) since his return 3 weeks ago, and the Rams defense bleeds fantasy points to outside WRs. They have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to WRs lined on the perimeter.
• The Cardinals matchup is the exact reason why you should go right back to Tyler Higbee in Week 10. He only saw 1 target in Week 9, but he played 79% of the snaps and ran a route on 61% of dropbacks. I’d expect those to increase versus Arizona. Their defense ranks dead last in nearly every receiving category for TEs. And I can’t imagine Matthew Stafford forcing targets back to Van Jefferson after his abysmal play the past two weeks.
• Darrell Henderson led the Rams backfield with 12 carries for 56 yards (1 target, 49% snap share) in Week 10. Cam Akers totaled 5 carries for 3 yards. Malcolm Brown went 2 for 9 yards but ran the most routes. Behind arguably the league’s worst offensive line, nobody can be played from this backfield. Rookie Kyren Williams is worth a speculative addition off the waiver wire, but he’s fighting a massive uphill battle amid this horrid situation.

Favorite DFS plays

• DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000)
• Tyler Higbee ($3,600)
• Cardinals DST ($2,700)
• Rondale Moore ($5,200)

Sunday Night Football
Chargers at 49ers

• The 49ers have the 4th-highest implied team total, playing in a matchup with the third-highest projected pace of play.
• Justin Herbert leads the NFL in completions per game (29.1) and ranks second in attempts (43.9).
• The 49ers defense is allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (195), while generating the league’s third-highest pressure. Needless to say, it’s a brutal matchup for Herbert who finished as just the QB18 versus the league’s worst pass defense in Week 9.
• LA’s 20-point implied team total (19th) does not paint a pretty picture for Herbert to score a ton of fantasy points in Week 10.
• Gerald Everett is a sneaky buy-low candidate. Didn’t do much in the stat sheet. 5 catches for less than 40 yards on 5 catches (8 targets). But his route participation was borderline elite at 80%. The role alone makes him a low-end TE1, even in a tougher matchup.
• Josh Palmer ALERT. The Chargers de-facto No. 1 WR delivered an 8-106-0 receiving line on a team-high 10 targets (23% target share). He made great use of his role on offense in a perfect matchup, running a route on 98% of Justin Herbert‘s dropbacks. Week 10 presents a much tougher matchup, but not to the extent that Palmer will fall outside the WR2 conversation.
• In the 49ers’ last 3 games, Brandon Aiyuk leads the team with a 25% target share averaging 9.3 targets, 7 receptions and 82 receiving yards per game. Keep starting him and embrace the 49ers’ high-team total. The Chargers are allowing the league’s 5th-highest passing TD percentage (5%). 

Monday Night Football

Commanders at Eagles

• The Commanders have the lowest implied team total on the slate. Avoid their skill players where possible.
• It’s a brutal matchup for all their WRs against the league’s No. 1 secondary. 3rd in pass defense EPA and passing yards allowed per game (177.6).
• And don’t be fooled by Terry McLaurin‘s 6-102 on 9 targets receiving line when these teams played back in Week 3. He had one target in the 1st half of that game. And nearly half his yards came on one 45-yard catch, while the others came in straight-up garbage time.
• I wouldn’t trust Curtis Samuel either. He has just a 15% target share in the last two games (4 per game) and 6 total receptions for 115 yards (19.1 yards per catch). Considering his late dependence on big plays, the potential return of rookie WR Jahan Dotson, and a tough matchup versus the Eagles in Week 10…I’d sit him. Keep in mind that Samuel saw 10 targets versus the Eagles in Week 3 and finished as the WR42 on the week. 7 catches for 48 yards.
• By far Miles Sanders‘ worst game this season came against the Washington Commanders back in Week 3. He posted a season-low in rushing yards (46) on 15 carries. The Commanders rank No. 1 in rushing defense EPA allowing the league’s second-lowest rushing TD rate and lowest opponent TD conversion rate in the 5-yard line.
• Brian Robinson Jr. out-carried Antonio Gibson 13 to 11, but neither averaged more than 3.5 yards per carry nor scored in Week 9. Both caught 2 passes. However, Gibson out-snapped Robinson for the second straight week (58% vs 44%) while running a route on 60% of dropbacks (3 targets). With no timetable on the return of J.D. McKissic, I’d still be looking to buy AG with the backfield usage trending in his direction. The Eagles run defense is one that Gibson can take advantage of based on his skillset as an explosive rusher. Eagles are allowing 5.0 yards per carry to RBs this season. Gibson also owns a 16% target share over the last month, and McKissic saw 9 targets the last time he faced the Eagles this season.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings

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