The Falcons and Panthers meet in a rematch of an exciting Week 8 overtime affair. The DFS-friendly players are relatively straightforward for both NFC South clubs. As a result, both tables are tight. Nonetheless, a few intriguing players might slip under the radar and make waves on the Thursday Night Football showdown slate.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Spread: ATL -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Falcons Analysis: The Falcons are a run-first offense, including dual-threat quarterback Marcus Mariota. According to numberFire, the Falcons have attempted 146 passes, 41 rushes by Mariota and 176 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this season.
Mariota has used his wheels to average 33.8 rushing yards on 5.1 attempts per game and score three times on the ground. The veteran quarterback's rushing ability helps pick up the slack for his lackluster 173.4 passing yards per game and 10 touchdown passes.
However, the matchup against the Panthers is excellent for Mariota's rushing and passing ability. According to Football Outsiders, Carolina is 23rd in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 28th in pass defense DVOA. Mariota made the most of Carolina's porous defense in Week 8, rushing for 43 yards and passing for 253, three touchdowns and two interceptions. So, Mariota is a stellar game-script-proof choice on this showdown slate.
The Falcons are favored and love to run, setting the stage for Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier potentially providing DFS value. The duo had nearly the same snap share in C-Patt's return last week, with the returning back playing 39% of Atlanta's snaps and Allgeier reaching a 38% snap share.
There are conflicting narratives for Patterson's usage outlook this week. On the one hand, he's further removed from his minor knee surgery. On the other hand, it's a short week. Nevertheless, Patterson is an explosive back, and head coach Arthur Smith got the ball in his dynamic back's hands when he was on the field in Week 9. Patterson toted the rock 13 times for 44 yards and two touchdowns and secured his only target last week.
Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Patterson ran nine routes, Allgeier ran eight and Avery Williams ran two in Week 9. In addition, Patterson aligned in the slot once and wide four times. Sadly, the converted receiver's usage in the passing attack has left something to be desired. Still, he had 2.24 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) and a 4.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in 2021, proving he can gash teams through the air.
Allgeier isn't an explosive runner, but he's a thumper and chipped in six receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown on six targets in his rookie campaign. In their first meeting this year, he was a handful for the Panthers, rushing for 39 yards on 13 attempts and catching three passes for 46 yards and a touchdown. Patterson and Allgeier can take advantage of a plus matchup if the Falcons handle their business as favorites.
Sadly, if the Falcons aren't pushed into a negative game script, they'll pass as little as they have to. As a result, fading Drake London is probably the correct move. Kyle Pitts is also risky. Yet, he's been more involved than London lately, netting him the edge when picking between the dynamic duo. Per PFF, Pitts has 18 targets, 10 receptions, 116 receiving yards and a touchdown versus London's 13 targets, eight receptions and 63 scoreless yards since Week 7.
Olamide Zaccheaus has run 59 routes since Week 7, but he's mustered only 60 scoreless yards on seven targets and six receptions. Damiere Byrd has been much more effective, amassing four receptions for 142 yards and two touchdowns on 41 routes and eight targets. The speedy Byrd was also much better than Zaccheaus in the first meeting against the Panthers. Zaccheaus had only one reception for 10 yards and a negative-six-yard run. Conversely, Byrd had three receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown on six targets.
The matchup is nice for Byrd, too. According to Football Outsiders, No. 2 wideouts average the fifth-most receiving yards (58.8) and other wideouts (any wideout who Football Outsiders do not identify as a club's No. 1 or No. 2 wide receiver) average the 13th-most receiving yards per game (47.9) this season.
Panthers Analysis: P.J. Walker was so ineffective in Carolina's Week 9 blowout loss that he was benched during the contest. Thus, there's a risk he could be benched if he struggles in this game. However, the former XFL stud was sharp in the first meeting with Atlanta's lousy pass defense.
Atlanta is 29th in pass defense DVOA, and Walker carved them up for 317 yards, one touchdown and one interception on 36 attempts. Walker also scampered for 20 yards. He's a risky choice and not a must-use pick, but there's enough upside to warrant consideration.
DJ Moore is the most attractive option from the Panthers. He's Carolina's most talented playmaker and the top target for Walker. According to numberFire, Moore has 29 targets, 15 receptions, 223 receiving yards, 406 Air Yards and two touchdowns on Walker's 90 pass attempts this season.
Moore barbecued the Falcons for six receptions, 152 yards and one touchdown on 11 targets and three yards on one rush attempt. The matchup is tasty, and he should smash again. In fact, No. 1 wideouts have cooked the Dirty Birds for the most receiving yards per game (90.2) this season.
Terrace Marshall is the second-most exciting option in Carolina's passing attack. The lightbulb might have flickered on for the second-year wideout. Marshall had nine targets, four receptions and 87 receiving yards against the Falcons in Week 8. Marshall's targets and receiving yards were career-high marks. Then, the 2021 second-round pick had three receptions for 53 yards and a touchdown on six targets in Week 9.
Marshall is the only other pass-catcher with more than 50 receiving yards on Walker's passes, totaling 135 yards on 15 targets and eight receptions. The matchup is nifty for Marshall as well. No. 2 wideouts average the most receiving yards per game (69.8) against the Falcons. Therefore, Marshall is a stellar selection and a downright steal at FanDuel.
Tommy Tremble is also intriguing. He has four receptions, 49 receiving yards, one touchdown and 110 Air Yards on eight targets from Walker. And, as is the case for Moore and Marshall, the matchup is fantastic. Tight ends average the fifth-most receiving yards per game (64.2) against Atlanta this year. Finally, Tremble's 56 routes since Week 7 are twice as many as Ian Thomas's 28.
D'Onta Foreman is a high-upside pick, but he's not without risk. Chuba Hubbard is projected to return this week, potentially siphoning work from Foreman. Still, the Falcons are 22nd in rush defense DVOA, and Foreman steamrolled them for 118 rushing yards and three touchdowns in Week 8. Foreman also rumbled for 118 yards on 15 carries and caught two passes for 27 yards in Week 7 against the Buccaneers. Thus, he's had two outstanding games since the Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey. Unfortunately, he had just seven attempts for 23 scoreless yards and two receptions for negative two yards last week. So, he's not a must-use player even though he has a high ceiling.
Final Thoughts: There isn't a runaway best selection for the captain/MVP spot. However, Patterson, Moore, Mariota and Foreman are the most enticing choices. It's also an excellent showdown contest for building balanced rosters. Finally, since the game projects to be close, it's not outrageous to use all of the featured running backs on the same showdown roster.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
