There are four teams on a bye in Week 10. And there’s a game in Germany on Sunday morning. As a result, the main slates at DraftKings and FanDuel have 10 games to select players from. The following game-by-game look at this week’s main slate will narrow the player pool to a manageable number of options.
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Week 10 Matchups
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Vikings Analysis: Justin Jefferson doesn't have an obviously fantasy-friendly matchup at a blush. However, he has the seventh-largest matchup advantage on Pro Football Focus's (PFF) Week 10 wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart.
The wideout has also been so good he's matchup-proof. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Jefferson is tied for fifth in Target Share (28.4%) and 14th in Intended Air Yards (764). He's also been efficient. According to PFF, Jefferson is fifth in Yards per Route Run (2.68 Y/RR) among 79 wideouts targeted at least 25 times in 2022. The third-year wideout has converted his elite usage and efficiency into the fifth-most receptions per game (7.4), second-most receiving yards per game (108.4) and three touchdown receptions.
Jefferson isn't a must-use player, but he's a high-ceiling tournament pick. Finally, he could benefit from a shootout and uptempo environment if Buffalo doesn't have to turn to backup quarterback Case Keenum. According to Football Outsiders, the Bills play at the fourth-fastest situation-neutral pace, and the Vikings are sixth. And Minnesota's defense will rightfully be the chalk and is an excellent choice if Keenum starts.
Bills Analysis: Josh Allen's availability for this week's game might come down to the wire after he suffered an elbow injury at the end of last week's loss to the Jets. Head coach Sean McDermott has called him day-to-day, and there's no benefit to the Bills for him to disclose more information than the bare minimum.
If Allen can play, it's unclear how his elbow injury will impact his play. Thus, risk-averse gamers are unlikely to take the plunge, making Allen an exciting GPP pick. The rocket-armed quarterback is second in passing yards per game (300.4) and touchdown passes (19). He also averages 49.0 yards per game and has punched in four touchdowns on the ground.
Buffalo's leaned on Allen heavily in a pass-happy offense. According to numberFire, the Bills have attempted 231 passes, 48 rushes with Allen and only 91 rushes with non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in 2022. The dual-threat quarterback has made the most of Buffalo's offensive tendencies and has a decent matchup this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings are 16th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, they allow the sixth-most passing yards per game (256.9) and the 11th-most rushing yards (186) to quarterbacks.
Stefon Diggs is the headliner in Buffalo's pass-catching corps and one of the most productive pass-catchers in the NFL this season. Diggs is eighth in Target Share (27.9%) and fourth in Intended Air Yards (969). He's also second in Yards per Route Run (2.93 Y/RR), tied for third in reception per game (7.5), third in receiving yards per game (107.1) and tied for first in touchdown receptions (seven). The matchup is also superb since No. 1 wideouts have the seventh-most receiving yards per game (81.0) against the Vikings.
Isaiah McKenzie is a potential under-the-radar selection as Buffalo's primary slot receiver in a plus matchup. Per PFF, Chandon Sullivan has allowed the most receptions (34), receiving yards (454) and Yards After the Catch (312 YAC) in slot coverage among cornerbacks and safeties who've played at least 70 coverage snaps in the slot.
Sadly, McKenzie has been underwhelming this year. If the Bills were going to pull the plug on McKenzie for rookie wideout Khalil Shakir, they presumably would have done so after their Week 7 bye. However, after last week's lackluster offensive showing, they may unleash Shakir more often.
According to PFF, the fifth-round pick from Boise State has played 62.0% of his passing snaps this year aligned in the slot. Thus, if he cuts into McKenzie's work, he'll enjoy the tasty matchup against Sullivan. Shakir's a risky pick, but he'll undoubtedly be on a low percentage of DFS rosters, enhancing his tournament appeal. Finally, gamers should fade Diggs at his sizable salary and Shakir with his already low floor if Keenum starts, but McKenzie wouldn't be an outrageous selection.
Game: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Spread: CHI -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Lions Analysis: This is another game with the potential to be played at a speedy tempo since the Lions are ninth in situation-neutral pace, and the Bears are 13th. Still, Amon-Ra St. Brown's excellence and a sweet matchup are why he's in this piece.
ARSB has drool-inducing numbers in the contests he's seen a full complement of snaps. In those five games, the second-year receiver averaged 10.4 targets, 6.8 receptions and 75.4 receiving yards per game. He also scored three touchdowns, rushed twice for 68 yards and had 2.28 Y/RR.
Meanwhile, Chicago is 30th in pass defense DVOA, and rookie cornerback Kyler Gordon has been cooked in the slot. Slot players have the second-most receptions (32) and receiving yards (374) against Gordon in slot coverage, efficiently reeling in 32 of 35 targets. As a result, St. Brown can smash. Our lineup optimizer agrees, projecting ARSB as the WR8 at DK and FD, and the second-year wideout is tied for the WR4 value score (WR4V) at the former and has the WR3V at FD.
Bears Analysis: Justin Fields has found his footing and has used his fleet feet to win over the DFS community. Per PFF, he has the second-most rushing yards (601) and is tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns (three) among quarterbacks this year. Fields is on a three-game streak for scoring as a rusher, has at least 47 rushing yards in seven straight, reached at least 60 in the previous four weeks and exceeded 80 in three of Chicago's last four games.
Fields has also passed for at least one touchdown in five straight games, including tossing two in Week 8 and three in Week 9. The dual-threat quarterback isn't likely to slow down this week against Detroit's hapless defense.
The Lions are 26th in rush and pass defense DVOA. Detroit has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (268.5), is tied for the 10th-most passing touchdowns allowed (10) and is tied for the fourth-most rushing yards (225) allowed to quarterbacks this year, despite already having had their bye. Therefore, Fields projects well as the QB4 at both sites, with the QB4V at DK and QB6V at FD.
Darnell Mooney is the no-doubt top option in Chicago's passing attack. Mooney is seventh in Target Share (28.4%) and tied for 23rd in Intended Air Yards (656). He's also been in great form after a slow start. The third-year wideout has more than 50 receiving yards in five of his last six games and had seven receptions, 43 receiving yards, a receiving touchdown and a two-yard rush last week. Mooney has averaged 4.7 receptions and 63.3 receiving yards per game since Week 4.
The matchup is ideal for Mooney to remain dialed in. No. 1 wideouts amass the third-most receiving yards per game (87.9) against the Lions.
Mooney's new running mate is also an interesting option in a plus matchup. Chase Claypool was pumped six targets on only 16 routes in his debut, demonstrating the coaching staff's effort to get him the ball. They also gave him a carry. Sadly, Claypool had just two receptions and 17 scrimmage yards, but the usage was encouraging after he had less than a week to learn Chicago's playbook after the club traded for him.
Like Mooney, Claypool has a great matchup this week. No. 2 wide receivers average the 10th-most receiving yards per game (53.5) against Detroit.
However, the stellar matchups don't end there. Tight ends average the fourth-most receiving yards per game (64.4) against the Lions. And, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Lions are tied for the sixth-most receptions (45) and fourth-most touchdowns (five) allowed to tight end.
Cole Kmet has reached paydirt in the two previous weeks. Since Week 8, he has had seven receptions for 52 yards and three touchdowns on eight targets. The optimizer digs Kmet as a value at DK, awarding him the TE4V.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -9.5 Points
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Jaguars Analysis: Rejoice. The Jaguars at Chiefs is another possible uptempo affair. The Jaguars are 10th in situation-neutral pace, and the Chiefs are sixth.
Trevor Lawrence hasn't been consistent, but he's flashed his upside, passing for more than 300 yards once, tossing multiple touchdowns three times and has had a game with one passing and two rushing touchdowns. He's also rushed for more than 20 yards in three of his last five games.
The second-year quarterback has a chance to flash his upside some more in an excellent matchup. Kansas City is 24th in pass defense DVOA, is tied for the most touchdown passes allowed (17) and cede the second-highest Quarterback Rating (101.0) this year. Lawrence has the QB1V at DK and QB4V at FD.
Christian Kirk is Lawrence's best pass-catching weapon. The free-agent addition is tied for 18th in Target Share (23.8%). He's parlayed Lawrence's attention into solid-if-unspectacular production, ranking 35th in receptions per game (4.8) and 23rd in receiving yards per game (63.8).
Jacksonville's top dog in the passing game has a favorable matchup this week. No. 1 wideouts average the fourth-most receiving yards per game (87.6) versus the Chiefs this season. Thus, Kirk is an enticing DFS pick, ranking as WR13 at both outlets, tying for the WR4V at DK and sporting the WR10V at FD.
Travis Etienne is the crown jewel of Jacksonville's offense. The electrifying running back is 10th in rushing yards per game (75.6). And, according to PFF, out of 47 running backs who've carried the ball at least 50 times this year, Etienne is tied for 16th in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.21 YCO/A), fifth in Missed Tackles Forced (38) and 11th in PFF's Elusiveness Rating. Per StatHead, he's also 22nd among running backs in receiving yards per game (19.3).
Etienne doesn't need a good matchup to pop off. But, of course, it doesn't hurt he has one this week. The Chiefs are 20th in run defense DVOA, and running backs average the third-most receiving yards per game (53.3) and have the most receptions (63) against them. Therefore, Etienne is popping out on our projections. He's the RB3, has the RB2V at DK and RB5 and is tied for the RB2V at FD.
Chiefs Analysis: The pass-happy Chiefs have a superb matchup this week against Jacksonville's defense, which is 27th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 11th-most passing yards per game (238.3). Patrick Mahomes has attempted 219 passes and 19 rushes in neutral game scripts this year, and the non-quarterbacks have rushed only 95 times. Predictably, Mahomes has thrived in a pass-heavy offense this year, ranking first in passing yards per game (325.6) and touchdown passes (21). He has also averaged 22.0 rushing yards per game and punched in one rushing score. Mahomes projects as the DFS QB1, with the QB3V at DK and QB1V at FD.
Travis Kelce is Mahomes' reliable stud atop the passing-game pecking order. Kelce is 15th in Target Share (24.7%). He's also seventh in receptions per game (7.1), eighth in receiving yards per game (82.4) and tied for first in touchdown receptions (seven). Kelce's an elite tight end in a class of his own, especially on this slate with the Ravens on their bye. Thus, Kelce is the TE1 and has the TE7V at DK and TE1V at FD.
JuJu Smith-Schuster was a player I avoided in season-long drafts, but he's been good this year. He's tied for 15th in reception per game (5.5), 13th in receiving yards per game (72.8) and tied for 20th among wideouts in Yards per Route Run (1.91 Y/RR). Smith-Schuster is always on the field and is Kansas City's most reliable wide receiver. Therefore, the optimizer likes him, projecting him as WR12 in DFS this week, tying for the WR4V at DK and tying for the WR8V at FD.
A change of scenery hasn't changed Marquez Valdes-Scantling's player profile. He's a field-stretching boom-or-bust wideout who hasn't exploded this year. Still, MVS is a high-upside option in this matchup. I wrote about him for numberFire as a value to target at FD, and MVS fits the bill at DK as well. Instead of rehashing my rationale for why I'm intrigued this week, I suggest checking out 5 NFL FanDuel Value Players to Target in Week 10.
All eyes were on how the Chiefs would use trade-acquisition Kadarius Toney in his debut for them, and he had a pair of receptions for 12 yards. However, the second-year wideout ran only six routes on Mahomes' 78 dropbacks. Surprisingly, Justin Watson ran the fourth-most routes (20) among Kansas City's wideouts. Even more shocking, Mahomes directed five passes to Watson, and the former Buc responded with two receptions for 37 yards.
The big-bodied and athletic wideout has largely been used as a field-stretching rotational option. Per PFF, Watson has five targets of 20-plus yards and three from 10-19 yards downfield, resulting in three receptions for 76 yards and two touchdowns. So, he's a contrarian dart in tournaments at a punt salary, and Watson might see an uptick in snaps if Mecole Hardman -- who hasn't practiced this week while nursing an abdominal injury -- is out.
Game: Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins
Spread: MIA -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Browns Analysis: The Dolphins are 31st in pass defense DVOA, allow the 10th-most passing yards per game (245.9) and are tied for the sixth-most passing touchdowns allowed (15) this year. And, obviously, their offense is lighting up the scoreboard.
Cleveland's likely to be in a negative game script against a lousy pass defense. Therefore, Donovan Peoples-Jones is a matchup and game-script-driven value option. No. 2 wideouts average 49.0 receiving yards per game against Miami. Meanwhile, DPJ has reached at least 50 receiving yards in five straight and cleared 70 in four of those contests. He's also caught at least four passes in five consecutive games.
Dolphins Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa has played out of his mind lately and generally this year. He's passed for more than 300 yards and precisely three touchdowns in back-to-back games. In addition, the lefty averages 311.7 passing yards per game and has thrown 15 touchdowns and two interceptions in the six games he's started and completed this season. Additionally, Tua is PFF's highest-graded passer since Week 7.
The matchup is good, too. Cleveland is 18th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 12th-highest Quarterback Rating (93.2). Tua is the QB3 at both providers and has the QB2V at both.
Tyreek Hill has been in a world of his own this year. Cheetah is second in Target Share (32.3%) and receptions per game (8.4) and first in Intended Air Yards (1,267), Yards per Route Run (3.82) and receiving yards per game (122.7). He's also first in receiving yards (403) among wideouts since Week 7, and no one else has reached 300.
The matchup also enhances the appeal of using Hill. No. 1 wideouts have the ninth-most receiving yards per game (75.4) against the Browns. Hill is projected as the WR1 with a matching value score at both DFS outlets this week.
Jaylen Waddle has also been white-hot since Tua returned. He has the third-most receiving yards (279), second-most receiving touchdowns (three) and a blistering 3.00 Y/RR since Week 7. Further, No. 2 wideouts have the sixth-most receiving yards per game (57.3) against Cleveland. The second-year wideout doesn't match Hill's placement atop the projections for wideouts, but he's not a slouch. Miami's No. 2 wideout projects as the WR6 with the WR10V at DK and the WR7 while tying for the WR8V at FD.
Game: Houston Texans at New York Giants
Spread: NYG -5.0 Points
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Texans Analysis: A matchup against the Giants is drool-inducing for running backs. The G-Men are 24th in rush defense DVOA, get creamed for 5.41 yards per carry by running backs and allow 134.6 scrimmage yards per game to the position.
The Giants would make even an average back interesting, and Dameon Pierce has shined in his rookie campaign. He's fifth in rushing yards per game (84.8), seventh in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.80 YCO/A), third in Missed Tackles Forced (50) and second in Elusiveness Rating. Pierce is projected as the RB8 at DK and FD, with the RB5V at the former and RB7V at the latter.
However, the Texans are underdogs and might need to air it out. In that scenario, Nico Collins is intriguing. Collins is 18th among wideouts in Yards per Route Run (1.97 Y/RR). He's also earned a target on 18.7% of his routes, which is not too shabby for a lid-lifting wideout with a 14.1-yard aDOT, per PFF. The second-year pro will attempt to build on his rock-solid 3.0 receptions and 50.8 receiving yards per game if he can return to action this week.
Giants Analysis: It's a dream spot for Saquon Barkley. Houston is 32nd in rush defense DVOA. Moreover, running backs also have the most rushing yards per game (154.25), rushing touchdowns (12) and tally 36.3 receiving yards per game against Houston.
As for Big Blue's do-it-all back, he's been elite. Barkley is third in rushing yards per game (97.4) and 12th in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.28 YCO/A). He's also 11th in receiving yards per game (23.6) among running backs. Barkley is the RB1 and has the RB1V at both DFS providers.
Darius Slayton is a viable option as well. He's moved up Big Blue's passing-game hierarchy. Since Week 5, Slayton has averaged 5.5 targets, 3.75 receptions and 55.25 receiving yards per game and hauled in a touchdown. Slayton also had a stellar 2.15 Y/RR and a 12.9-yard aDOT in his last four games.
The fourth-year pro has a good matchup and can maintain his upward trajectory. No. 1 wideouts average the eighth-most receiving yards per game (79.3) against the Texans. Rookie Wan'Dale Robinson is arguably New York's No. 1 wideout, but he's predominantly a slot. Further, the Texans are mediocre or worse at defending deep passes. Excluding Malik Willis's two incompletions on pass attempts that traveled at least 15 Air Yards, opposing quarterbacks have completed 28 of 53 attempts (52.8%) for 675 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions. So, Slayton is a worthy tournament flier.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: NO -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 40.0 Points
Saints Analysis: Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are fantastic players. However, there are always tough cuts in DFS, and they fit the bill. New Orleans was a wreck on offense at home last week. They'll have to deal with a short week after playing in the Week 9 Monday Night Football game and face a defense getting their superstar edge-rusher back. Therefore, it makes sense to wholesale fade the Saints in DFS this week.
Steelers Analysis: The return of T.J. Watt is likely upon us this week. Will he play his full complement of snaps? Probably not.
Regardless, he changes the outlook for Pittsburgh's defense. The Steelers held the Bengals to only 20 points and had seven sacks and five turnovers in Watt's only healthy game this year in the season opener. The Steelers are a value selection, owning the DST3V at DK and DST1V at FD.
Game: Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans
Spread: TEN -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 36.5 Points
Broncos Analysis: Greg Dulcich has blended rock-solid usage and efficiency. The rookie tight end Dulcich has earned a target on 18.3% of his routes and has the sixth-highest Yards per Route Run (1.96 Y/RR) out of 58 tight ends targeted at least 10 times this year.
He also has a fabulous matchup. Tight ends average the third-most receiving yards per game (69.5) against the Titans. Tennessee is also tied for the sixth-most receptions (45) allowed to tight ends this year. Further, they've been torched deep. Quarterbacks have completed 27 of 50 (54%) passes that traveled at least 15 Air Yards for 880 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Everything comes up roses for Dulcich. He's projected as the TE4 at both providers, with the TE1V at DK and TE6V at FD. Dulcich is the best pick at tight end in cash games and an outstanding choice in tournaments, too.
Titans Analysis: Tennessee's offensive line moves the pile, and Derrick Henry does damage behind his butt-kicking line. According to Football Outsiders, the Titans are fifth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.85). And, of course, King Henry is doing his thing.
Henry is first in rushing yards per game (108.8), second in rushing touchdowns (nine), fourth in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.98 YCO/A) and sixth in Missed Tackles Forced (36). The bulldozing back also chips in through the air, averaging 1.8 receptions and 17.5 receiving yards per game.
The matchup is also encouraging. Denver is 25th in rush defense DVOA, allowing 102.9 rushing yards per game and 5.02 yards per carry to running backs. Running backs also have the ninth-most receptions (46) and average 35.1 receiving yards per game against Denver. As a result, King Henry is a high-upside selection, projecting as the RB2 in DFS, and he has the RB6V at DK and RB2V at FD.
Denver's offense has been stuck in a rut in the first year of Nathaniel Hackett's and Russell Wilson's pairing as the head coach and quarterback. Conversely, the Titans had an excellent outing against Kansas City's high-octane offense last week. Tennessee's defense is an inviting pick in DFS this week, projecting as the DST3. They also stand out as a value at FD, where they have the DST4V.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: LV -6.0 Points
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Colts Analysis: The Colts are presently the biggest clown show in the NFL since unqualified parties lead them at head coach, offensive coordinator/play-caller and quarterback. Gamers should avoid the Colts in DFS like they're a week-old unrefrigerated tuna sandwich.
Raiders Analysis: The Raiders are hurting in their pass-catching corps after placing Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow on the Injured Reserve on Thursday. Fortunately, they're sizable favorites and can lean on their bell-cow running back behind their top-shelf run-blocking offensive line.
The Raiders are first in Adjusted Line Yards (5.28), and Josh Jacobs is dazzling this season. The fourth-year running back is fourth in rushing yards per game (92.9), tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns (six), sixth in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.93 YCO/A), tied for first in Missed Tackles Forced (51) and first in Elusiveness Rating. Jacobs is also 17th among running backs in receiving yards per game (21.5) and averages 3.1 receptions per game.
Unfortunately, the matchup isn't great. Instead, the Colts are fifth in rush defense DVOA. However, running backs have the seventh-most receptions (51) and the sixth-most receiving yards per game (44.0) against the Colts. And obviously, volume is the king for running backs, and Jacobs should be busy this week. He's projected as the RB5 and has the RB4V at DK and as the RB4 and is tied for the RB3V at FD.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Spread: DAL -5.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Cowboys Analysis: It's unclear if Ezekiel Elliott will play this week. It will justifiably be another chalky week for Tony Pollard if Zeke is out. However, Pollard has a compelling case for GPP usage, even if his backfield mate plays.
First, the matchup is dreamy. Green Bay is 31st in rush defense DVOA, and they allow 4.98 yards per carry and 151.6 scrimmage yards per game to running backs. Second, Dallas's offensive line paves the way for the running game, ranking ninth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.72).
The context is great, but Pollard is better. He's first in yards per carry (6.2) and Yards After Contact per Attempt (5.02 YCO/A). Pollard is also tied for 11th out of 42 running backs targeted at least 15 times this year in Yards per Route Run (1.34 Y/RR). The dynamic running back can pay off in DFS on as few as 12-15 touches.
Packers Analysis: The Packers are a roaring tire fire. Still, Christian Watson is a freakish athlete and should have a clear path to playing time and usage.
Unfortunately, Watson has left the last two games early after taking massive hits. Yet, he started both games and was targeted on three of 15 routes, catching each for 36 scoreless yards. Watson and Green Bay's offense might crash and burn against Dallas's talented defense, but the rookie wideout checks enough boxes to warrant tournament consideration.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: LAR -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Cardinals Analysis: The bargain bin for running backs is bereft of exciting choices. However, James Conner has a cap-friendly salary and eye-catching usage.
Conner had a 71% snap share in his return last week from a three-week absence. Additionally, he ran 29 routes versus only 11 for Eno Benjamin in Week 9. Conner didn't light the world ablaze as Arizona's featured back, but he had respectable marks of 64 scrimmage yards and five receptions. So, Conner has merit for DFS consideration this week.
Matthew Stafford is in the NFL's concussion protocol, casting doubt on his availability this week. John Wolford is the next man up if Stafford is out. LA's backup quarterback has thrown only 42 passes in the NFL, completing just 54.8% of them, tossing zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Arizona's defense is an outstanding pick against Wolford and adequate if Stafford starts. They have the DST2V at DK and DST5V at FD.
Rams Analysis: The Rams have scored 27 points in two games since their Week 7 bye and failed to hit the incredibly low threshold of 225 total yards in either contest. Yikes. Gamers should stay far away from the Rams, regardless of who starts at quarterback.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
