Thanksgiving is a day filled with food and football, providing DFS gamers with a three-game main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel. The DFS festivities begin at 12:30 p.m. ET with the Bills at the Lions and conclude with an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff for the Patriots at the Vikings. The Giants at the Cowboys is sandwiched between those two games, kicking off at 4:30 p.m. ET.
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Thanksgiving Matchups
Game: Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions
Spread: BUF -9.5 Points
Over/Under: 54.5 Points
Bills Analysis: The Bills have the highest implied total on the slate at a juicy 32.0 points. As a result, their table is overflowing with options. It starts at the top with Josh Allen. The Bills are a pass-first team. According to numberFire, the Bills have attempted 94 passes and just 54 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in their previous four games.
Allen has stumbled a bit lately, but the Bills haven't waivered from their pass-first tendencies. He was erratic and sloppy early last week but turned it on as the game progressed. In the final 35 minutes of action, Allen completed 14 of 19 passes for 170 yards and one touchdown against the Browns.
Allen has an excellent chance to build momentum against a lousy defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Lions are 23rd in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, Detroit's emerging young cornerback Jeff Okudah is ruled out, removing a talented player from Detroit's already porous pass defense. Thus, Allen is projected as the highest scorer on the slate by a wide margin.
Stefon Diggs is Allen's best stacking partner and an elite one-off choice, projecting as the WR1 in DFS, the second-highest scorer on DK and the third-highest scorer on FD. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Buffalo's top passing-game weapon is fourth in receptions per game (7.6), third in receiving yards per game (103.3) and in touchdown receptions (eight).
Diggs has a mouthwatering matchup, too. According to Football Outsiders, No. 1 wideouts have averaged the third-most receiving yards per game (84.9) against the Lions this year. Per Pro-Football-Reference, wide receivers have also destroyed Detroit for the eighth-most receptions and tied for the 12th-most receiving touchdowns against them.
Gabe Davis is a decent bet to benefit from the cushy matchup, too. The Lions have struggled with No. 2 wideouts this year, tying for the 10th-most receiving yards per game (55.0) permitted to them. The Lions have also been beatable deep. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 29 of 60 passes that traveled at least 15 air yards for 732 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions.
Davis is used as a field-stretching weapon by the Bills. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Davis's 16.4-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT) is the deepest among players targeted at least 35 times this season. So, Davis is a stylistic fit for this matchup.
Dawson Knox is Buffalo's clear-cut third option in the passing attack. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's third on the Bills in routes (98), targets (17), receptions (14) and receiving yards (152) in their last three games. The athletic tight end has produced his two highest yardage outputs (57 and 70) in his past two outings.
He's coming on strong in time for a good matchup. Tight ends have averaged the fourth-most receiving yards per game (61.3), are tied for the seventh-most receptions (51) and are tied for the second-most touchdown receptions (seven) against the Lions this year.
Buffalo's passing attack is the main attraction, but their running game is an intriguing pivot. First, the Lions are 27th in rush defense DVOA. Second, running backs have averaged 129 scrimmage yards per game, 3.3 receptions per game and scored 12 touchdowns versus Detroit this season.
Devin Singletary is Buffalo's lead running back. He's played 75%, 74%, 72% and 72% of the snaps in four games since the Bills' bye in Week 7. The fourth-year running back had 97 scrimmage yards and a touchdown last week after producing 47 yards and two touchdowns in Week 10.
James Cook is an enticing pivot, though. The rookie running back has been more efficient than Singletary and has begun carving out a role alongside him. Per numberFire, Singletary has 164 rushing yards at 4.82 yards per carry and a 35.29% success rate in the past four games in neutral game scripts. Meanwhile, Cook has 88 rushing yards at an eye-popping 6.29 yards per carry and a 50% success rate. Could the Bills reward Cook with more opportunities? Maybe. It's a reasonable dice roll on a small slate. Cook has also been used in mop-up time, providing another path to helping DFS squads if the Bills blow out the Lions.
Lions Analysis: Amon-Ra St. Brown is an exciting option for the Lions. The second-year wideout has been healthy for a full complement of snaps in seven games this year, averaging 7.3 receptions and 81.7 receiving yards per game on a 31.3% Target Share. He's also rushed for 74 yards and scored three touchdowns in those contests. Detroit will likely have to air it out to keep up or catch up to the Bills this week, and ARSB is the primary beneficiary of a probable pass-happy attack.
Game: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -10.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Giants Analysis: The Giants are double-digit underdogs and might faceplant against Dallas's supremely talented defense. However, a negative game script might allow some of their punts to help DFS squads. I analyzed Isaiah Hodgins as a value play to target at FanDuel for numberFire earlier this week. Readers are encouraged to read 5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 12 for in-depth analysis. However, Hodgins is also an intriguing option at DK for the minimum salary.
Lawrence Cager is a DK-specific suggestion since he's TE eligible there and is unappealing with a WR designation at FD. He's run 42 routes and had five targets, four receptions, 29 receiving yards and one touchdown in Big Blue's previous two contests. Cager's route participation has been rock-solid. Frankly, that's grounds for considering him as a punt.
Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys have the second-highest implied total on the Thanksgiving three-game slate, and their table is representative of the appeal for using Cowboys' players. Dallas's offense has taken flight since Dak Prescott returned in Week 7. They've scored 24, 49, 28 and 40 points in four games since his return.
Prescott has been especially locked in after shaking the rust off in his first game back. He's averaged 263.7 passing yards per game, tossed seven touchdowns, three interceptions and rumbled for 56 yards and a touchdown in his last three games. Prescott has a good matchup this week. The Giants are 24th in pass defense DVOA. As a result, Prescott is the best swerve from the chalkier Allen.
CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz are the Cowboys' most desirable pass-catching choices. Lamb leads the Cowboys in receptions (21), targets (27), Target Share (27.6%), receiving yards (272), Air Yards (263) and touchdown receptions (three) on Prescott's passes in Dallas's last three games.
Schultz has been the Robin to Lamb's Batman, recording 15 receptions, 20 targets, a 20.4% Target Share, 150 receiving yards, 143 Air Yards and one touchdown in the same sample. Moreover, the matchup is excellent for Schultz. Tight ends have averaged the fifth-most receiving yards per game (59.8) and tied for the ninth-most receptions (50) against the Giants this year.
Tony Pollard is also a tantalizing pick from the Cowboys. The home-run-hitting back had 131 rushing yards, three touchdowns and 16 receiving yards in Week 8, and he ripped off 115 rushing yards, one touchdown, three receptions and 13 receiving yards in Week 10 while Ezekiel Elliott was out. Fortunately, Pollard had a robust role even with Elliott back in the fold in Week 11. Pollard had 15 carries for 80 yards and reeled in his targets for 109 yards and two touchdowns.
Zeke is a threat to poach goal-line touchdowns. Nevertheless, Pollard is a highly-efficient player and should have a favorable game script for the heavily-favored Cowboys. And, of course, a matchup with Big Blue's defense that's struggled mightily against running backs is a plus. Running backs have trounced the G-Men for 141.5 scrimmage yards per game, 5.32 yards per carry, 10.4 yards per reception and scored 10 touchdowns against them.
Game: New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: MIN -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Patriots Analysis: Rhamondre Stevenson has a steady presence in New England's offense and is game-script-proof. He's had at least 70 scrimmage yards in eight consecutive contests. In addition, Stevenson has at least three receptions in five straight games and seven of his last eight. Damien Harris might siphon goal-line touchdowns from Stevenson, but the second-year back has splashed paydirt five times and isn't a shoo-in to get yanked for goal-line work since he's a big back with a versatile skill set.
Jakobi Meyers is the only other locked-in option in New England's offense. New England's No. 1 wideout has been in lockstep with Mac Jones. Meyers has a 27.4% Target Share, 31 receptions, 304 receiving yards, 358 Air Yards and one touchdown in the five games he's played with Jones this year in which the second-year quarterback started and finished the contest.
Meyers can also thrive in this matchup. He's aligned in the slot on 70.5% of his passing snaps in New England's last three games, and slot wideouts have cooked Minnesota's slot cornerback, Chandon Sullivan. Per PFF, Sullivan has allowed the most receiving yards (513) and receptions (40) in slot coverage among cornerbacks and safeties this year.
Nelson Agholor is a viable punt, albeit one with a low floor. The Patriots have rotated receivers behind Meyers. Yet, Agholor ran the second-most routes (21) among Patriots' wide receivers in Week 11.
According to PFF, the veteran field stretcher has a 12.3-yard aDOT, six targets from 10-19 yards downfield and six more 20-plus yards downfield this season. The Vikings have crumbled against deep passes lately. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 11 of 20 passes that traveled at least 15 Air Yards for 314 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in Minnesota's previous three games. Therefore, Agholor has a path to DFS utility on as little as one successful deep shot.
Vikings Analysis: Minnesota's stud left tackle, Christian Darrisaw, is out. That might spell doom for Kirk Cousins and the passing attack. New England's pass rush is fierce, and Cousins has wilted under pressure against teams that get after the quarterback at a high rate.
One way they can combat Cousins' shortcomings is to lean on Dalvin Cook. Additionally, the Patriots are less imposing against the rush than the pass. The Patriots are first in pass defense DVOA and 12th in rush defense DVOA.
However, they've been stout against running backs. So, the matchup is challenging for Cook. Yet, volume is the king at running back, and Cook is a workhorse. Minnesota's bell-cow back has averaged 17.8 touches and 94.5 scrimmage yards per game, adding seven touchdowns for good measure.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
