The recent explosion of online betting and new, inventive ways to play fantasy sports has most of our heads spinning. No House Advantage’s new app lets you stack over/under prop bets to win real money. I’ll be here weekly, giving you my favorite prop bet plays to help you build a winning stack.
No House Advantage is offering three options for their Pick’ Ems contest this Sunday for the early 1 PM EST Slate. Entry fees range from $5 to $15. The following prop bet picks apply to all three contests.
Taylor Heinicke (QB – WAS) OVER 185.5 Passing Yards
Not many NFL fans or analysts had high hopes for the Commanders when Heinicke stepped in for an injured Carson Wentz in Week 7. However, the backup signal caller has been more than adequate, leading the Commanders to a 3-1 record. Heinicke led victories include triumphs over Green Bay and Philadelphia. In the four games he has started, the journeyman QB is averaging 210 passing yards per game.
This week, the Commanders face off with the Texans, whose defense is allowing an average of 226.6 passing yards per game. Heinicke has only failed to surpass 200 passing yards once this season: against the Vikings in Week 9.
This is a game that the surging Commanders need to win to maintain momentum. Heinicke will utilize his connection with his No. 1 WR and have a stellar game behind a solid rushing attack. Therefore, I’m taking the over on this passing yards prop as a high-priority play for Week 11.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards
I don’t think many people would have believed that Heinicke would unlock McLaurin. However, that is exactly what has happened. Since Week 7, when Heinicke took over behind center, McLaurin has been averaging 92.5 receiving yards per game versus 61.2 with Wentz at the helm.
Last week, despite being matched up with Eagles CB Darius Slay, McLaurin had his best game of 2022, hauling in 8 passes for 128 yards. That helped the Commanders upset the previously undefeated Eagles. Week 11 has them heading to Houston to face off against the Texans in what should be a far easier matchup for the talented WR.
Heinicke has leaned on McLaurin since taking over at QB, targeting him an average of nine times per game. McLaurin is hauling in six of those targets per contest, averaging 15.41 yards per catch. This is a trend unlikely to change as long as Wentz remains sidelined. Going up against a mediocre pass defense in Houston, taking the over on this prop with high priority is a no-brainer.
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The Giants have been a pleasant surprise this season, sitting at 7-2 and in second place in the NFC East. While the re-emergence of RB Saquon Barkley as an elite talent has been a big reason for the team’s surprising start, the play of Jones has also been a big help.
While he hasn’t been asked to throw much – Jones is averaging just 26.3 passing attempts per game – he has been effective when asked. Last week against Houston, two of his 13 completions went for touchdowns. This week, the Giants host the Lions – one of the worst passing defenses in the league.
Through 10 games, the porous Lions’ secondary has given up multiple passing touchdowns in five. The Giants’ offense should be able to move the ball at will, and I fully expect Jones to take advantage. Therefore, I am taking the over on this touchdown prop, placing it in the fold as mid-priority play.
Allen Robinson (WR – LAR) OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards
Hopes were high for Robinson when he signed with the Los Angeles Rams this past offseason. While he has been a major disappointment thus far in 2022, things could be looking up for the veteran wideout.
Rams standout WR Cooper Kupp suffered a severe high-ankle sprain last week, landing him on IR for at least the next four weeks. Losing Kupp is a huge blow given he leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. This gives Robinson an opportunity to move into a lead WR role for a sputtering Rams offense.
There’s no guarantee Robinson will take the lead role for the Rams long-term, but this week against the Saints, he appears in line to be the primary beneficiary of Kupp’s absence. The Saints are giving up an average of 154.3 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. With Matthew Stafford back in action after clearing concussion protocol, I like Robinson to smash this receiving prop. I’m playing it as a high-priority pick and not looking back.
Justin Fields (QB – CHI) OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Early on in the 2022 season, it was looking as though Fields was less a victim of former head coach Matt Nagy and more of an overall disappointing prospect. That has changed quickly. In the last four weeks, the young QB has been phenomenal both running and throwing the ball.
While the Bears have failed to get a win in all but one of those games, their offensive efforts, specifically Fields, have been impressive. Fields has been mostly heralded for his rushing abilities but has quietly been getting it done in the air as well.
Head coach Matt Eberflus hasn’t asked Fields to air it out much – only 23 times per game the last four weeks – but when he does, it has been effective. Fields has thrown multiple touchdowns in three straight games heading into this Week 11 match-up against the Falcons.
The Falcons’ defense has been notably bad against the pass, giving up an average of 289.8 passing yards per game. However, they haven’t allowed a QB to throw multiple touchdowns since Joe Burrow had three in Week 7. The Falcons also haven’t faced a QB as mobile as Fields and will have a hard time keeping up with his favorite target in TE Cole Kmet.
Fields will continue his hot streak against Atlanta this week, and I’m loving the over on this passing touchdowns prop. Play it as a mid-level priority pick for the win.
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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.