The recent explosion of online betting and new, inventive ways to play fantasy sports has most of our heads spinning. No House Advantage’s new app lets you stack over/under prop bets to win real money. I’ll be here weekly, giving you my favorite prop bet plays to help you build a winning stack.
No House Advantage is offering three options for their Pick’ Ems contest this Sunday for the early 1 PM EST Slate. Entry fees range from $5 to $15. The following prop bet picks apply to all three contests.
Najee Harris (RB – PIT) UNDER 51.5 Rushing Yards
Pittsburgh RB Najee Harris has been a disappointment thus far in 2022. After an electric rookie season, the talented back has looked like a shell of himself. He is averaging 45.1 yards per game on the ground, a far cry from the 70.6 yards he averaged in 2021.
This week, Pittsburgh is up against a decent New Orleans defense that takes a bend, don’t break approach against running backs. Earlier in the season, I would have taken the over on this prop without question. However, not only has Harris underperformed, rookie RB Jaylen Warren is continuing to see an increased role in the Steelers’ running attack. As a result, it’s hard to trust that Harris will have an opportunity to beat this prop this week, so I’m taking the under as a mid-priority prop bet this week.
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN) OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards
Minnesota Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson was beyond impressive in his debut last week. He hauled in all nine of his targets for 70 yards receiving, despite having only four days to learn a new system and develop a rapport with QB Kirk Cousins. If there was any question as to his relevance on his new team, they’ve certainly been answered.
Minnesota heads into Buffalo this week in what amounts to a prove-it game for the 7-1 Vikings. Hockenson has had a full week to get in step with head coach Kevin O’Connell’s system. In a match where Cousins and company will need to score early and often, I expect them to use their new TE frequently. Therefore, I am confidently taking over this prop as a high-priority play.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – KC) UNDER 3.5 Receptions
The Kansas City Chiefs offense has been a juggernaut this season. In the absence of WR Tyreek Hill or any semblance of a running attack, it’s been an air-it-out season for QB Patrick Mahomes. Last week against Tennessee, Mahomes threw the ball an astounding 68 times yet only targeted WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling once.
The Chiefs look to continue their dominance against the Jacksonville Jaguars heading into Week 10. While it again figures to be a pass-heavy attack from Mahomes and company, it seems that Valdes-Scantling has lost favor with his QB. After a hot start, he has failed to earn more than four targets since Week 5. Fellow WR Mecole Hardman is questionable to suit up this week, but this favors newly acquired WR Kadarius Toney more than Valdes-Scantling. I’m playing the under on this prop with high priority and not thinking twice.
Davis Mills (QB – HOU) UNDER 222.5 Passing Yards
Houston headed into the 2022 season hoping they had a long-term solution behind center in second-year QB Davis Mills. While he’s shown flashes of being the answer for the Texans, head coach Love Smith has leaned on rookie RB Dameon Pierce as of late, giving Mills fewer opportunities to shine in the passing game.
Houston visits Met Life Stadium this Sunday to face off against a New York Giants defense allowing a meager 219.3 passing yards per game. In keeping with what the team has been doing well as of late, this figures to be a run-heavy scheme for the Texans. Pierce is likely to carry the load against the 25th-ranked run defense in the league. Mills will throw the ball, but not enough to eclipse 200 yards in the air. Play the under on this prop bet as a high-priority play to keep your stack alive.
Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN) UNDER 34.5 Rushing Yards
The Denver Broncos running back situation continues to confound the masses in 2022. When star second-year Rb Javonte Williams went down with an ACL tear in Week 4. It was assumed that veteran RB Melvin Gordon would shoulder the load at the time, but that has not been the case.
Gordon was the lead back in Week 5, seeing 15 carries for 54 yards and three catches for 49 yards, but he didn’t record a touchdown. Then, before Week 6, Denver signed veteran RB Latavius Murray off the Saints practice squad. Murray made an immediate impact, recording 66 yards on 15 carries to Gordon’s three touches. In addition, the team acquired RB Chase Edmonds from the Miami Dolphins ahead of their bye week, who will make his orange and blue this Sunday against Tennessee.
The additional competition for carries further muddies what was already a muddy backfield in Denver. The Titans boast the second-best rushing defense in the league, making it easy to take the under on this rushing prop for Gordon and slip it in as a high-priority play.
Justin Fields (QB – CHI) OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Bears’ second-year QB Justin Fields has begun to surge in the last few weeks, along with a Bears offense that looks like they’ve found its identity. Not surprisingly, that identity is a run-heavy approach featuring the mobile QB using his legs to create big plays. Those big plays have created more opportunities for Fields in the passing game, even if the numbers aren’t eye-popping.
Last week, in his best performance of 2022, Fields was a monster on the ground, rushing for a QB record 178 yards against Green Bay. His passing stats, however, were pedestrian. He completed 17 passes for a paltry 123 yards, but three of those 17 passes ended in a touchdown. That was Fields’ second consecutive multi-touchdown performance and his third of this season. Week 10 has the Bears hosting the divisional rival Detroit Lions, who have one of the worst defensive units in the league. They have allowed two or more touchdown passes four times this season and are allowing an average of 278.5 passing yards per game.
It’s unlikely Chicago head coach will veer away from a run-heavy approach this week. However, given the success of the run game, the Lions’ porous secondary, and newly acquired WR Chase Claypool having had a whole week in with his new squad, they should be able to air it out a little more than usual, and I expect Fields to beat this prop. I’m not as excited about this one as some, so I am playing it as a low-priority, but it’s a risk worth taking.
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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.