NFL Week 12 DFS Lineup Advice: GPP (2022 Fantasy Football)

We were fortunate to have three games played on Thanksgiving, but we’ll focus on the main slate here. That’s the 11 games happening on Sunday, with no teams having any BYEs this week. That’s a bizarre scheduling quirk, but it leaves us with plenty of options on this slate. With that in mind, let’s go ahead and get started by looking at the quarterbacks.

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The players below are ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 12:

Quarterbacks

DraftKings

Justin Herbert (LAC): $7,000 at ARI
Herbert hasn’t quite lived up to expectations this season, but it’s not really his fault. He’s been playing without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but both returned in Week 11. That’s massive for Herbert’s value, averaging nearly 25 DraftKings points per game when Allen is in the lineup. This matchup with Arizona is astounding, too, with the Cardinals allowing the third-most passing yards in the NFL. They also just surrendered four touchdowns to Jimmy Garoppolo on Monday, and Herbert is a much better player.

Geno Smith (SEA): $6,000 vs. LV
Geno is having a breakout season in Seattle, and he should keep it going against the Raiders. Vegas ranks 26th in yardage surrendered while owning a 30th OPRK against opposing quarterbacks. That’s sensational for Smith, with Geno generating a 20-point average on the year. It’s rare to see a $6K player with a 20-point average, and he will be under-owned with so many teams available this week.

FanDuel

Lamar Jackson (BAL): $8,200 at JAX
People are panicking about Lamar’s recent struggles, but they also forget how special this guy can be. The speedster has 33 FanDuel points in 10 games since 2019, and there are few players with that sort of upside. He’s also averaging nearly 25 FD points per game in that span and will eventually return to that player. A matchup with Jacksonville could be the start of a second-half run, owning a 23rd OPRK against opposing quarterbacks.

Tom Brady (TB): $7,400 vs. CLE
The lack of touchdowns has killed Brady’s value this year. All we need is the touchdowns to turn things around because the usage numbers are as good as ever. Tommy is averaging 46 pass attempts for 301 yards since Week 2. Those are some of the best rates in the NFL, and the touchdown regression will eventually fall his way. Cleveland is not a concerning matchup either, ranked 30th in points allowed.

In Consideration: Ryan Tannehill (TEN): DK $5,400/FD $7,100 vs. TEN
Since his return from injury, Tannehill has at least 19 DK points in both games and will have to throw to keep up with this potent Cincy offense.

Running Backs

DraftKings

James Conner (ARI): $6,600 vs. LAC
Conner had a rough game along with the rest of the Cardinals on Monday, but the role is still there for him to be a stud. He played in 96 percent of the team’s snaps in Week 10 and never came off the field in Week 11 until that game got out of hand. Finding a workhorse below $7K is tough enough, but it looks even better since Conner was an $8K player in this role last year. He should clobber the Chargers, surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Jeff Wilson (MIA): $5,900 vs. HOU
It was tough to gauge how this Miami backfield would play out when Wilson was traded, but it looks like Wilson will be the guy. He led the team with a 61 percent snap share in his second game, scoring 41.5 combined DK points in his first two outings with the Dolphins. That’s absurd from a sub-$6K player, and it makes him impossible to fade since he faces the worst run defense in the NFL.

FanDuel

Isiah Pacheco (KC): $6,300 vs. LAR
With Clyde Edwards-Helaire going down with an injury, this looks like Pacheco’s backfield. The rookie has at least 15 carries in back-to-back games, combining for nearly 200 rushing yards. That’s no surprise with how focused defenses are against this passing attack, and Pacheco’s unfortunate not to have any goal-line carries yet. Those are surely coming, with Kansas City entering this fantastic matchup as a 14.5-point favorite.

Latavius Murray (DEN): $6,200 vs. CAR
Murray has always done an excellent job of filling in throughout his career, but he might be the lead back in Denver. They decided to release Melvin Gordon on Monday, and it looks like Chase Edmonds (ankle) is also out for the next month as well. That leaves Murray as the only back left, picking up 17 carries and a touchdown last week. Getting 15-20 carries looks like a lock for Latavius, and that’s amazing, with Carolina allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing rushers.

In Consideration: Kenneth Walker (SEA): DK $6,900/FD $8,400 vs. LVR
Walker is a Top-5 back since taking over for Rashaad Penny and should be in for a monster game against a 29th-ranked Raiders defense.

Wide Receivers

DraftKings

Terry McLaurin (WAS): $5,800 vs. ATL
We had Scary Terry in here last week, and we’ll keep going back to the well until this price gets to where it should be. Taylor Heinecke absolutely adores McLaurin, feeding him a 25 percent target share when he’s behind center. It’s led to Mac’s best stretch of the season, averaging 16.5 DK points per game across his last five outings. That usage and production are hard to fade against Atlanta, allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers.

Allen Robinson (LAR): $5,500 at KC
An injury to Cooper Kupp is finally giving Robinson a chance to shine. In the first game without Kupp, Robinson had 14.7 DK points. He’s also averaging four catches over the last five games, and the target share and reception totals have steadily been rising throughout the year. The matchup is the best part of this, though, with the Chiefs surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. The Rams will have to throw to keep up with the Chiefs, and A-Rob is their only legitimate target right now.

FanDuel

Keenan Allen (LAC): $7,300, at ARI
People forget just how good this guy has been. Allen has been a Top-10 receiver in four of the last five years but has been obliterated by injuries this year. In his return to action last week, Keenan collected five catches for 94 yards on eight targets. Lines like that are commonplace for Allen, and he should be asked to do more with Mike Wiliams and Gerald Everett both nicked up. Not to mention, Arizona is allowing the second-most points in the NFL.

Robert Woods (WR – TEN): $5,700 vs. CIN
Woods had a nightmarish stretch when Ryan Tannehill was injured, but he’s getting more involved now that Tannehill is behind center. He’s got seven targets in each of the last two games since Ryan’s return, and that’s the stud we saw in Los Angeles. That sort of target share makes him an excellent option against Cincy, with these teams expected to play a shootout. The Titans need to throw to keep up with this Bengals offense, and Vegas believes they’ll do that behind their 21-point projection.

In Consideration: Tyler Boyd (CIN): DK $5,900/FD $6,700 at TEN
Everyone will pivot to Tee Higgins after a monster game on Sunday, but Boyd should get less attention here. We love that against a Tennessee team allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

Tight Ends

DraftKings

Tyler Higbee (LAR): $4,200 at KC
We just discussed how the Rams need to fill the void left by Kupp, and it looks like it’ll be Robinson and Higbee. This guy has quietly been a target hound all year, ranked second among all tight ends with 73 total targets. That’s absurd from a $4,200 player, and that number could creep even higher with Kupp’s 30 percent target share sitting on the sidelines. There should be plenty to go around against Kansas City because the Rams will have to throw 40-plus times to keep up with the Chiefs.

FanDuel

Cole Kmet (CHI): $5,300 at NYJ
It was strange to see Kmet so far down the pricing list. Justin Fields top target has been a Top-5 tight end over the last four weeks, averaging 13.5 FanDuel points per game in that span. There’s also some talk that Fields needs to run less and stay in the pocket, which should also bump Kmet’s targets. This is also a game where Chicago could be playing catch-up as an underdog, and that could force this team into some extra pass attempts.

In Consideration: Travis Kelce (KC): DK $7,700/FD $8,200, vs. LAR
Kelce has almost double as many fantasy points as any other tight end and needs to be considered, no matter how expensive he is or how high his ownership is.

Defense/Special Teams

DraftKings

Kansas City Chiefs D/ST: $2,800 vs. LAR
This price tag is laughable. It’s not even a GPP choice, but everyone needs to use the Chiefs on DraftKings. The Rams have allowed the most DK points to opposing D/STs this season, and it looks like they’ll be without Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp here. That’s essentially the whole offense, and playing any sub-$3K defense against them is a profitable endeavor.

FanDuel

Carolina Panthers D/ST: $3,900 vs. DEN
The Panthers have been a sneaky defense this season. They’re allowing just 23 points per game and have faced some of the best offenses in the NFL. Denver is certainly not one of those, ranked dead last with 14.7 points per game. This is expected to be a grinder matchup, with these two teams posting a week-low 36-point total. That means neither team is expected to crack 20 points, making both of these D/STs great options.

In Consideration: Denver Broncos D/ST: DK $3,800/FD $3,900 at CAR
This is expected to be the lowest-scoring game of the week between two of the worst offenses in the league. Denver is also a Top-10 defense and shouldn’t have any issues with whoever Carolina decides to send out at quarterback.

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Beyond our daily fantasy football content, check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheet, which helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.