Does anyone else feel like this season is cruising at warp speed? Week 10 is upon us and brings us a new slate to play on. With the Ravens, Bengals, and Jets all on bye, some firepower is missing from this week’s slate of games.
This weekly value series aims to identify some of the better values to help build winning DFS lineups and has hit a decent margin of success throughout the season. Before you polish all of your lineups this week, let’s explore some of the better values at salary this week has to offer.
Let’s get into it.
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Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Justin Fields (CHI) $6,500 vs. DET
Yes, Justin Fields was in this same article last week. Turns out, it was the best call on the slate. And it gets better. For those who have been following along, last week the Dolphins’ defense allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the QB position. As of this week, they’ve risen to allow the second-most fantasy points to the position. You read that correctly. Justin Fields curb-stomped them down five spots in four quarters.
That is the upside that this improving player represents; for my Dragon Ball Z nerds, he has yet to reach his final form.
This week he faces a lowly Lions defense that allows the fifth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position and can easily be run on. The Lions remain a scrappy opponent and will put up a fight after riding the high of defeating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week. This only forces Fields and company into playing for the win.
Over the last month, Fields has been the QB1 for fantasy despite throwing for fewer than 200 yards in four straight games and eight out of nine games this season. The cheat code he offers with his legs helps mitigate the $1200 salary increase.
While not a great stacking option, Fields is a high-floor/high-ceiling play for both cash and GPP contests. At cost, he can be relied on until he proves otherwise.
FanDuel
Dak Prescott (DAL) $7,400 vs. GB
Dak Prescott returned from injury and had two games to shake some rust off before entering their bye week. He certainly seemed settled in during his last appearance, where he accounted for three total touchdowns and a QB4 finish for the week. With an added week of routine practice and some additional rest, he should be primed for a good matchup in Green Bay. Over his last two starts, he is averaging 228.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns, and 17 rushing yards per game.
The Packers’ defense has played well at times and played very beatable at times this season. In their last three games, they’ve allowed two passing touchdowns in each of them. And while Josh Allen was of the three quarterbacks they faced, they also faced Taylor Heinicke and Jared Goff. The matchup looks worse on paper, and Prescott is settling in as being in the top-twelve quarterback options on a weekly basis.
Plenty of people will be off of Prescott for GPP contests this week, making him an ideal target at a reasonable salary for his potential ceiling.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Jamaal Williams (DET) $5,900 vs. CHI
Is Jamaal Williams an every-week target? No, but he feels like he should be in the conversation. Is he a dynamic bell cow capable of toting the rock 20-plus times a game? Well…no. Is he an Austin Ekeler or Christian McCaffrey type of back that pops both on the ground and through the air? Also…no. So what is he? Easy, a very capable dual-threat back that happens to be encumbered with basically ALL of a team’s goal-line carries. Of the 20 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line, Williams has 19 of them. Of the 14 rush attempts inside the five, Williams has 14 of them. For the folks doing the math at home, that is 100% of the carries in goal-to-go situations. “Okay, but it’s the Detroit Lions…” I can almost hear someone on Twitter lament. Fine, let’s look league-wide. In rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line, Williams is second. Inside the five, also second and both behind Joe Mixon.
The Bears are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the running back position. They allow, on average, 1.1 rushing touchdowns and 112.8 rushing yards to opponents. While Williams will split work with D’Andre Swift, he will not be splitting goal-line opportunities. With the current average, Williams feels like a lock to hit paydirt in a tantalizing matchup.
While Williams works as a cash option, he is better suited to GPP contests where the roster percentage should remain medium to low.
FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor (IND) $7,000 vs. LV
Admittedly, there is some risk built into this pick for DFS purposes. However, the cost versus potential ceiling strongly favors building a couple of lineups with Taylor as a complementary piece. He practiced on a limited basis throughout the week and probably would have been back last week had the Colts not tried to rush him back from injury too quickly. Assuming health, Taylor should step right back into that lead-dog role in this struggling offense.
The matchup is a good one for Taylor’s probable return. The Raiders allow the seventh-most fantasy points to the position and surrender 144.7 scrimmage yards to the position on a per-game average. While both offenses have struggled recently, we could see plenty of both teams’ running backs this week.
Again, due to risk, heavy exposure to Taylor is not recommended. But for those who utilize multi-lineup contests, he should be sprinkled in a high-upside play at a bargain salary.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Chris Olave (NO) $6,800 vs. PIT
This might be my favorite play on this slate. As a rookie, Chris Olave has only been under 50 receiving yards one time this season. That was way back in week one. His 15.5 DK points average is better than Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr., and CeeDee Lamb. He has finished inside the WR20 range in five of his last six games and had double-digit points in all but one game this season.
This week, the Saints march into Pittsburgh to face a Steelers defense that is allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. They’re currently surrendering 212.9 receiving yards and 1.6 touchdowns per contest.
With a lower than 10% projected roster percentage, Olave can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
FanDuel
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) $7,000 vs. JAC
Wide receivers usually require some time to acclimate to new offenses, new quarterbacks, and sometimes a role change. Smith-Schuster is gaining experience and building some chemistry with Patrick Mahomes, and it is really starting to show on the stat sheet. Over his last three games, he averaged 8.3 targets, 108.3 receiving yards, and .67 touchdowns. In that span, he has finished as the WR5 twice. His usage in the red zone has also risen, as he has seen nine red zone targets over his last four games.
The Jaguars are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to receivers. They’re allowing 152.4 receiving yards and 1.2 touchdowns to the position on a per-game basis.
Mecole Hardman is out this week, which could lead to a few more targets going JuJu’s way. With the uptick in usage and red zone looks, Smith-Schuster is moderately priced WR2 production with WR1 upside this week.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Greg Dulcich (DEN) $3,400 vs. TEN
After assuming the lead tight end role in Denver, Dulcich has finished inside the top-ten tight end rankings in two of his three starts. On the other, he finished as TE11. In those three games, he has the third-highest target share (12.4%) per snap of all the Bronco’s pass catchers. It only took six games for the rookie to overtake Albert Okwuegbunam, and he is not showing any signs of relinquishing the role.
This week he faces a Titans defense that is allowing the seventh-most points to the position and 67.8 receiving yards per contest. While reliant on struggling Russell Wilson for his production, the matchup is friendly enough to expect near double-digit points with some moderate touchdown upside. This is far from a slam dunk pick, but for those who are looking for cheap production while filling other roster spots, Dulcich is a tidy value for PPR scoring.
FanDuel
Evan Engram (JAC) $4,900 vs. KC
In three of his last five games, Evan Engram has finished inside the top-ten tight ends. And while the tight end on the other side of the field for this game is the obvious best choice at the position, Travis Kelce also sits atop the salary food chain. Engram spent much of the week on the injury report with a back issue. That injury designation has been removed, meaning he is good to go for what should be a high-scoring game.
There is little to no doubt that the Chiefs will score early and most likely often against the Jaguars, forcing Trevor Lawrence and company to fight through the air more frequently. While the immediate beneficiary is Christian Kirk, the Chiefs are susceptible to allowing production to the tight-end position. They’re allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends on the season. They’re surrendering 54.6 receiving yards and 0.6 touchdowns on a per-game basis.
The salary for some of the tight ends this week does not match up with some of the production. For example, Tyler Higbee is $6,000 this week due to the matchup but has yet to find the endzone. When looking through the available salaries and matchups, this week is either pay up or find the sneaky values that could pop. Evan Engram, at cost, feels much more like the latter.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.
