Happy Thanksgiving! This year we’re given the gift of “no byes” for another week before they wrap up for the year, which means there’s still an 11-game dance card despite the three Thanksgiving games (and Sunday/Monday night contests). Remember, as always, to pay attention to pricing errors concerning the Sunday and Monday night games from the previous week, as DraftKings drops the slate beforehand. Good luck, and travel safely!
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith (QB – SEA) ($6,000) vs. LV
Geno has FINALLY hit the 6k threshold, but honestly, it’s still not enough for the overall QB7 and also the seventh-ranked QB in passing yards. Seattle is still a run-first team, but the game script has dictated neutral paths a lot for Seattle, keeping Smith’s volume up. A matchup with the Raiders is prime for the rested Smith, as Las Vegas has given up the third most FPPG to opposing QBs.
Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL) ($5,500) @ WAS
Happy Thanksgiving! This year we’re given the gift of “no byes” for another week before they wrap up for the year, which means there’s still an 11-game dance card despite the three Thanksgiving games (and Sunday/Monday night contests). Remember, as always, to pay attention to pricing errors concerning the Sunday and Monday night games from the previous week, as DraftKings drops the slate beforehand. Good luck, and travel safely!
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith (QB – SEA) ($6,000) vs. LV
Geno has FINALLY hit the 6k threshold, but honestly, it’s still not enough for the overall QB7 and also the seventh-ranked QB in passing yards. Seattle is still a run-first team, but the game script has dictated neutral paths a lot for Seattle, keeping Smith’s volume up. A matchup with the Raiders is prime for the rested Smith, as Las Vegas has given up the third most FPPG to opposing QBs.
Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL) ($5,500) @ WAS
Mariota does not possess a slate-breaking ceiling, but his floor is fine for cash games, and his price tag just will not move. Mariota is surprisingly the QB9 in fantasy and is fourth among QBs in carries, sixth in rushing yards, and third in rushing TDs. That kind of floor is perfect for cash play, and the price tag allows you to fit top-tier skill players.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA) ($6,900) vs. LV
Continuing with the Seattle trend, Kenneth Walker should have been approaching the 8k mark long ago. Despite only being named the starter after Rashaad Penny went on IR, Walker is still fourth in the NFL in RZ touches with 30, and Vegas has allowed the fourth most FPPG to RBs and 4.9 YPC.
Jeff Wilson (RB – MIA) ($5,900) vs. HOU
Jeff Wilson immediately took over the Miami backfield in his second game with the team, going 17-119-1 and receiving five targets. His price has barely moved, and now he gets the nuts matchup against Houston, who has allowed just under 190 rushing YPG and by far the most FPPG to opposing RBs.
Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) ($6,800) vs. NO
The rushing upside Deebo Samuel has brought to the table seems to be gone now that Christian McCaffrey and Eli Mitchell are there to establish the ground game in tandem. However, Deebo has not had fewer than six targets in any game this season and is still a top-24 WR. His price is living under 7k now, which just isn’t right, and New Orleans has allowed the seventh-highest YPC to WR1s.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) ($5,800) vs. ATL
This is McLaurin’s second straight installment in the pricing exploitation article, and there is simply no explanation for his price continuing to drop. McLaurin has a 29.7% target share since Taylor Heinecke took over as the starting QB, and he’s sixth in the NFL in air yards with 1072. Atlanta has offered a soft matchup for WRs all season, allowing the third most FPPG to the position.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (TE – KC) ($7,700)
Yeah, I know what you’re thinking – how can Kelce be considered as an “exploitable” price tag? Consider this – Mark Andrews (the overall TE2) has 133.8 fantasy points this year in PPR, which is almost 100 shy of Kelce’s 223 points. He has more fantasy points and fantasy points per game than Tyreek Hill, who is on pace for the first-ever 2,000-yard season from a WR. Only Stefon Diggs and Austin Ekeler have more fantasy points this season from a skill position, and both are routinely $1,000 more than Kelce. I understand that the DFS mantra is to go as cheap as possible at TE, but Kelce is arguably the most underpriced of any, given his stranglehold on the opportunity cost at the position.
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