NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 11 (2022 Fantasy Football)

For the first time this season, I let “coachspeak” get to me. Tony Pollard at $6500 should have been a lock, but I let all the coaching staff’s comments talk me out of him. It was actually a valuable experience since it served as a reminder that you’ll still make egregious process mistakes even after playing for a decade (#SilverLinings).

Today we turn our attention to Week 11, and Justin Fields‘ price tag has risen a whopping $2300 over the past two weeks.

Quarterback

Daniel Jones (NYG): ($5700) vs DET

Let’s be real. The Giants’ offense runs through Saquon Barkley, which is why Daniel Jones has dropped to the QB16 overall on the season. You’re rarely going to get a ceiling game for Jones, but at $5700 (where he’s been for the last three weeks now), he makes perfect sense for cash games. Jones gets the nuts matchup this weekend against Detroit, as the Lions have allowed the most FPPG to QBs and the highest YPA. Jones also has an elite rushing floor, ranking fourth among QBs in carries and rushing yards (behind only Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Fields).

Baker Mayfield (CAR): ($5000) @ BAL

This is not a cash game play by any means, but Baker Mayfield is priced as a backup due to not being announced as the starter until the slate had already dropped on DraftKings. Mayfield went 14-20 for 155 yards and two TDs against Cincinnati in the second half of the last game he played, and the Ravens have allowed the eighth most FPPG to opposing QBs.

Running Back

Dameon Pierce (HOU): ($6500) vs WAS

DraftKings simply does not seem to understand Dameon Pierce’s usage. Over the past seven games, Pierce has been averaging 22.7 touches per game and 107.7 rushing YPG. You could argue that Pierce’s price should be at least 1k higher with that kind of floor, rivaling that of Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, and Alvin Kamara. Pierce is currently the RB13 in PPR formats, and Washington has allowed 4.6 YPC on the season.

Brian Robinson (WAS): ($5300) @ HOU

On the other side of the ball in this game, we get a #MondayNightSpecial with Brian Robinson. He’s priced as someone who was losing time to Antonio Gibson, but Robinson had 26 carries and a score last night as Washington upset the undefeated Eagles. Gibson will not go away (especially on passing downs), but both RBs will be critical to this offense going forward. Houston has allowed the most FPPG to opposing RBs, while also giving up an ungodly 187.9 rushing YPG and 13 rushing TDs.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin (WAS): ($5900) @ HOU

Another #MondayNightSpecial. Terry McLaurin’s price did not move off his $5900 price tag despite putting up an 8-128-0 line on the Eagles last night on a 37.9% target share. Since Taylor Heinecke has taken over as the Commanders’ QB, McLaurin has received no less than eight targets in a game. Theoretically, this should be a bad matchup (HOU allows the third fewest FPPG to WRs), but so was last night’s game against Darius Slay. McLaurin is a WR2 with a WR3 price tag.

Allen Robinson (LAR): ($5600) @ NO

From a statistical standpoint, there’s nothing good to say about Allen Robinson this year, so this will be more about his value as a Cooper Kupp replacement than as a standalone player. Kupp will be sidelined indefinitely, so ARob should PRESUMABLY step into the lead WR role. There is no data to present on Robinson sans Kupp, but the latter leaves behind a 33.3% target share (best in the NFL) that must be filled. Robinson has at least five targets in every game but one this season.

Tight End

Cole Kmet (CHI): ($4100) @ ATL

In the blink of an eye, Cole Kmet has gone from fantasy bust to the overall TE12 (and TE1 over the last three weeks). Justin Fields’ sudden surge into fantasy stardom has benefitted Kmet the most, as he has five TDs over his last three games. Kmet’s price has risen over $1000 over the last two weeks, but he’s still too cheap at $4100 for his new role. Atlanta is a soft matchup too, allowing the seventh most FPPG to TEs.

Tyler Higbee (LAR): ($4000) @ NO

It’s a terrible matchup for Tyler Higbee as the Saints have given up by far the fewest FPPG to opposing TEs. That said, Higbee may be the biggest beneficiary of Kupp’s injury. Already the second-highest targeted pass-catcher on the Rams, Higbee went for 8-83-0 last game to pick up the slack on Kupp’s injured ankle, and his price has not risen enough for his expected new role.