NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 10 (2022 Fantasy Football)

It was a third straight week of winning for me in fantasy football. I missed the Joe Mixon boat but could at least ride the coattails of Justin Fields and company to another major profit in cash games. We officially start the second half of the football season this week, and DraftKings has already not priced Fields up enough! Let’s dig in and see what other mispricings we can find to keep the winning going…

Quarterback

Justin Fields (QB – CHI): ($6,500) vs. DET

DraftKings made a valiant attempt to price up Justin Fields, as his tag rose by $1200 for week 10. If you’re turned off by that, don’t be. He’s still far too cheap for the rushing upside he brings to the table, and Fields is the overall QB1 since Week 5 (and is QB7 overall on the season). Fields is averaging 102 rushing YPG over his last four and gets the nuts matchup against Detroit, who has allowed the second-highest YPA and the fourth-most FPPG to opposing QBs. Don’t let the price hike scare you away – Fields should be over 7k by now.

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC): ($5,400) @ KC

Lawrence has taken a bit of a backseat to the Travis Etienne emergence, but he’s still the overall QB9 on the season and has lived in the low 5k range on DraftKings. This game looks like a perfect storm of matchup and opportunity. The Chiefs have opened the week as 9.5-point favorites over the Jags, so we can expect more Lawrence dropbacks than usual if the game goes according to the script. The Chiefs have also allowed the sixth most FPPG to opposing QBs.

Running Back

Jeff Wilson (RB – MIA): ($5,500) vs. CLE

TECHNICALLY, Raheem Mostert is still the starter, but his managers have to be concerned that newly acquired Jeff Wilson matched him in a 50/50 split of carries. The fact that Wilson outplayed Mostert may not bode well for the latter’s long-term outlook either. At $5,500, I’m willing to at least assume a 50/50 share again and am more than willing to at least take shots in GPP at this price tag. The Browns have allowed a shade under 5.9 YPC since Week 3, and have allowed the fifth most FPPG to opposing RBs.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET): ($6,900) @ CHI

The Bears have tightened the perimeter defense recently but remain vulnerable out of the slot where St. Brown lines up over 60% of the time. Bottom line – he should never be under $7000, even with recent production that did not achieve his ceiling. In the five games Goff and St. Brown have started together, the Lions’ WR1 averaged just under ten targets per game. If this game shoots out, he has the floor for cash and the ceiling for GPP.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – KC): ($6,000) vs. JAX

Juju Smith-Schuster is a prime example this week of a #SundayNightSpecial that we like to attack in DFS. Despite going 10-88-0 on 12 targets, Juju’s price has dropped by $100 due to the Week 10 slate being out before Week 9 finished. Juju is thriving in the KC offense, with eight targets or more in six of the Chiefs’ eight games, and the Jags allow the tenth most FPPG to opposing WRs.

Tight End

Cole Kmet (TE – CHI): ($3,400) vs DET

Are all the preseason Cole Kmet truthers (me included) finally about to get our day in the sun? It sure seems that way, as Kmet has found the end zone three times in the last two games, and his production seems to be going up right in line with Justin Fields’. Bear in mind we’re still talking about an offense that has yet to throw the ball more than 28 times all season, but there’s no denying the matchup. Detroit fails against every position, including the TE, to which they’ve coughed up the fifth most FPPG.