I’m back after a two-week hiatus, and we have a tidy little four-game slate to cover tonight. Last night was mayhem with the seven-man rotation of Miami being the center of the DFS universe. The Heat do not play tonight, but we already have some VERY relevant injury news to take into account as we head into this evening (looking at you, Philly). As always, follow me on twitter @jac3600 for both NBA and NFL.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Top Plays
Joel Embiid (PF,C – PHI): $11,200 DK, $11,500 FD
Embiid’s price tag looks prohibitive at face value, but there is really so much more to unlock given the situation he’s in tonight. Sure, the matchup is bad against Rudy Gobert (MIN sixth fewest FPPG allowed to centers), but James Harden is already out and Tyrese Maxey is likely to join him on the shelf after leaving the game last night. Over the past three games, Embiid has an unreal 43.9% usage rate to go along with a 40% assist rate. He’s the most expensive player on the slate, but you need to find a way to get him in your lineups.
Damian Lillard (PG – POR): $10,100 DK, $9200 FD
You’re not fitting both Embiid and Lillard in cash lineups on DraftKings (it’s pretty easy on FanDuel). Lillard offers the next-highest floor and ceiling combo on this slate. He has three straight double-doubles while sporting a 31-percent usage rate and 49.3-percent assist rate over that span. In these three games, Lillard hasn’t shot well, putting the ball in the hoop at only a 36.7% rate. If his shot drops more, consider his outlook higher.
CASH GAME OPTIONS
Jusuf Nurkic (C – POR): $6700 DK, $6600 FD
Nurk doesn’t have the minutes floor that you crave (27.5 MPG this season), but he’s still averaging a double-double while posting 1.26 Fantasy Points Per Minute (FPPM). Utah is horrid against opposing centers, allowing the second-most FPPG and also the third-highest offensive rebounding rate. Even if Nurkic only plays 25 minutes, he can get you there in all formats.
Bol Bol (PF,C – ORL): $6200 DK, $6400 FD
Bol has become a force for the Orlando offense, and he didn’t miss a beat at all last night even with Wendell Carter returning from his one-game absence. Bol has a 25-percent usage rate and a 16-percent rebounding rate over his last three games. In addition, he has double-doubled in three of his last four. Indiana is a better matchup for guards, but it’s a big pace-up spot for Orlando and Paolo Banchero is still out.
Value Plays
Jalen Suggs (PG,SG – ORL): $5900 DK, $6200 FD
Speaking of guards against Indiana, consider Suggs tonight at his price tags. Like Bol, Suggs has made the most of his teammates’ absences. Over the past two games, he has a 27.8-percent usage rate and a 36.8-percent assist rate while averaging 42.33 DK points per game. Indiana ranks second in pace and has allowed the fourth-most FPPG to opposing point guards.
De’Anthony Melton (PG,SG – PHI): $5800 DK, $5600 FD
Harden is out. Maxey is almost certainly out. Tobias Harris is a question mark after missing last night’s game with a hip injury. Embiid is obviously the play here, but he’s not scoring 100 points. That means we need a second-in-command. Enter Melton who has over a 28-percent usage rate when Maxey and Harden are both off the floor. Minnesota is also a much softer matchup for guards.
Andrew Nembhard / TJ McConnell (PG – IND): $3900 DK/$4400 FD, $3800 DK/$4000 FD
The ankle injury bug was rampant in the NBA last night. Tyrese Haliburton was among the affected, as he had to be helped to the locker room right at the end of the game. If he’s out tonight (which I’m betting he will be), we have ready made values in both Nembhard and McConnell who should soak up the majority of the guard minutes alongside Buddy Hield. The duo allow you so much flexibility with the rest of your lineup, and Orlando has allowed the seventh-most FPPG to opposing guards.
Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros
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