NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Monday (11/14)

After a wild weekend of football, we’re back to the NBA grind. That Sunday slate had some of the biggest stat lines I’ve ever seen, with Joel Embiid and Darius Garland going nuclear. It’s strange to see one 50-point game in a month, but having two on the same day is truly remarkable. We don’t expect that to happen again here, but we have some options that we love. With that in mind, let’s start by looking at the schedule and odds!

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Schedule and Odds

• TOR at DET (TOR -5) O/U: 220
• CHA at ORL (ORL -1) O/U: 221
• OKC at BOS (BOS -11) O/U: 228
• PHX at MIA (MIA -1.5) O/U: 217.5
• LAC at HOU (LAC -5) O/U: 220.5
• ATL at MIL (MIL -4.5) O/U: 226
• SAS at GSW (GSW -6.5) O/U: NA

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Pascal Siakam (groin) OUT
• Cade Cunningham (shin) Questionable
• LaMelo Ball (ankle) Questionable
• Gordon Hayward (shoulder) Questionable
• Dennis Smith Jr.(ankle) Questionable
• Cole Anthony (oblique) OUT
• Paolo Banchero (ankle) Questionable
• Chet Holmgren (knee) OUT
• Robert Williams (knee) OUT
• Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) Questionable
• Chris Paul (heel) Questionable
• Cameron Johnson (knee) OUT
• Tyler Herro (ankle) Questionable
• Kawhi Leonard (knee) OUT
• Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) OUT
• Khris Middleton (wrist) OUT
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) Questionable
• Jrue Holiday (ankle) OUT
• Fred VanVleet (illness) OUT
• Jalen Green (shoulder) Questionable

Core Plays

Jayson Tatum (SF/PF – BOS): $10,800 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
I thought the Tatum MVP talk was premature a few weeks ago, but I’m entirely on board now. The Celtics small forward has scored at least 45 DraftKings points in all but one game this season, generating a 53-point average. He’s simply doing everything for this offense right now, and this production should continue as long as he’s playing 35-40 minutes and taking 20 shots a night. We’re obviously not worried about him facing this weak Thunder frontcourt, with JT scoring at least 55 DK points in their two meetings last year.

Wendell Carter Jr.(C – ORL): $7,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Carter has developed into one of the most underrated big men in the NBA. He’s taken over center duties since the Nikola Vuecevic trade, averaging 35 DraftKings points per game this season. He’s been even better lately, posting a 41-point average across his last six outings. A matchup with Charlotte is sensational, too, surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.

Keldon Johnson (SF – SAS): $7,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
People scoffed when KJ was added to the Olympic roster, but Greg Popovich clearly saw something most people didn’t. This youngster has taken over the Spurs offense this season, scoring at least 30 fantasy points in all 12 games. That’s an unbelievable floor from a $7K player, and it looks even better with KJ averaging nearly 40 DK points per game. Facing the Warriors is wonderful, too, allowing the most points in the NBA.

Cash Game Considerations

Stephen Curry (PG – GSW): $10,200 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Chef Curry has been cooking this season. The Finals MVP has scored at least 45 DraftKings points in every game, en route to a 56-point average. That’s one of the best stretches of this sharpshooter’s career, and it should continue against a 28th-ranked Spurs defense. The only concern is that this is the second half of a back-to-back set, but we’ll dive into an alternative later if Curry does end up sitting.

Paul George (SF – LAC): $10,100 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
PG13 got off to a slow start this season, but he’s been taking over recently. The All-Star has scored at least 41 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games, averaging 53 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s no surprise since he’s taking over in the absence of Kawhi Leonard, leading this team with a 31 percent usage rate. Facing Houston’s 27th-ranked defense is the best part of this, with George generating a 58-point average in their two meetings this year.

Scottie Barnes (PG/SF – TOR): $8,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
This price tag is getting lofty, but it’s easy to understand why. Barnes has been tasked with point guard duties in Toronto, stepping up in the absence of Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam. That means this stat-stuffing machine should handle the ball on almost every possession, which is impressive since he’s one of the safest bets to play 40 minutes. Facing Detroit’s disastrous defense is the icing on the cake, owning the worst defensive rating in the NBA.

GPP Targets

Jordan Poole (PG/SG – GSW): $5,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
This marks the second half of a B2B set for the Dubs, which could lead to some rest. Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green were all rested in their most recent B2B, with Poole scoring 37 DK points across 38 minutes in that game. He also led the team with 18 shots, and we believe those totals are his floor when you look at how poor his shooting was in that expanded role. Poole is an excellent value in this price range, even if just two of these guys sit.

Gabe Vincent (PG/SG – MIA): $4,700 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
It’s hard to understand why Vincent remains so cheap. He’s developed into the Sixth Man for this Miami team, scoring at least 26 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. GV is also averaging 34 minutes across his last three outings, and that sort of role is impossible to find from a sub-$5K player. Facing Phoenix is tough, but there’s minimal risk at this sort of salary.

Otto Porter (SF/PF – WAS): $4,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
With FVV and Sia both out in Toronto, Porter has stepped into a starting role. This guy used to be $7K in a similar role in the past, and it looks like the Raptors will give him all the minutes he can handle. In fact, OPJ had 20 DK points across 27 minutes in Toronto’s most recent game and did that twice last week. That’s all you could hope for from a $4K player, and Toronto needs him to swallow up some minutes and usage with so much production sitting on the bench.

Value Plays

Jevon Carter (PG – MIL): $6,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
I’ve been really impressed with JC in this expanded role. The West Virginia guard has taken over the starting point guard duties with Jrue Holiday sidelined, averaging 35 DK points per game across 34 minutes a night in his last four fixtures. Those are amazing averages from a $6K player, but it’s no surprise since this is one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA. Atlanta is far from a concerning matchup, with JC likely matched up with Trae Young, one of the worst defenders in the NBA.

Al Horford (PF/C – BOS): $5,400 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Big Al got off to a rough start this year, but he’s starting to find it now. The former All-Star has scored at least 26 DraftKings points in five straight games, posting a 34-point average in that span. That’s the stud we saw for most of last season, and it makes it hard to understand why he’s barely cracking $5,000 on both sites. OKC is an outstanding matchup, too, owning a 29th OPRK against opposing centers this season.

Killian Hayes (PG/SG – DET): $4,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
It looks like this former Top-10 pick will start at point guard as long as Cade Cunnigham remains out. In the first two games without CC, Hayes had 33 DK points in both of those. He’s been stat-stuffing at will in this augmented role, and he’d be the best value of the day if he reached that 30-35 fantasy points yet again.

Advantageous Pricing

• Wendell Carter Jr.(C – ORL): $7,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
• Jordan Poole (PG/SG – GSW): $5,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
• Otto Porter (SF/PF – WAS): $4,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
• OG Anunoby (SF – TOR): $7,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
• Jaden Ivey (PG/SG – DET): $6,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
• Thaddeus Young (SF/PF – TOR): $3,900 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG/SG – OKC): $8,900 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
• Luguentz Dort (SF – OKC): $5,100 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
• Marcus Morris (SF/PF – LAC): $6,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
• Bobby Portis (PF/C – MIL): $7,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel

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