Week 11 has some great matchups for the column, highlighted by Dallas and Minnesota. These are two teams that are in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC, with Dallas badly needing a win after an upset loss to Green Bay. We also look at the Thursday night clash between the Titans and the Packers, in what should be a throwback game between two teams that have really strong running games.
Dallas Cowboys DL (1st in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ Minnesota Vikings OL (7th in FantasyPros OL Rankings)
The Vikings got a huge win last week in the game of the year so far for the NFL. Now they return home with a three-game cushion on the Packers, but another tough test awaits. Dallas has a ferocious pass rush that ranks 1st in the NFL in sacks (35), 3rd in pass-rush win rate, and 4th in pass DVOA. While Minnesota ranks 7th in the league in adjusted sack rate (5.8%), they allowed four sacks last week to the Bills.
Micah Parsons is making a strong argument for Defensive Player of the Year. He already has eight sacks and is tops in the league with a 30% pass-rush win rate despite coming off a game where he only had one QB pressure and zero sacks. Dallas does a good job of moving Parsons around the formation, giving him a chance to wreak havoc from multiple spots on the field. Minnesota’s interior offensive line is the weak point in this unit, so I would expect Parsons to be used more as an inside pressure point this week. That leaves DeMarcus Lawrence and Dorance Armstrong (5 sacks each) on an island in what should be one-on-one matchups with Minnesota tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. Darrisaw is a stud and has yet to allow a sack this season, so it will be important for O’Neill to play well opposite of him.
Week 11 has some great matchups for the column, highlighted by Dallas and Minnesota. These are two teams that are in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC, with Dallas badly needing a win after an upset loss to Green Bay. We also look at the Thursday night clash between the Titans and the Packers, in what should be a throwback game between two teams that have really strong running games.
Dallas Cowboys DL (1st in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ Minnesota Vikings OL (7th in FantasyPros OL Rankings)
The Vikings got a huge win last week in the game of the year so far for the NFL. Now they return home with a three-game cushion on the Packers, but another tough test awaits. Dallas has a ferocious pass rush that ranks 1st in the NFL in sacks (35), 3rd in pass-rush win rate, and 4th in pass DVOA. While Minnesota ranks 7th in the league in adjusted sack rate (5.8%), they allowed four sacks last week to the Bills.
Micah Parsons is making a strong argument for Defensive Player of the Year. He already has eight sacks and is tops in the league with a 30% pass-rush win rate despite coming off a game where he only had one QB pressure and zero sacks. Dallas does a good job of moving Parsons around the formation, giving him a chance to wreak havoc from multiple spots on the field. Minnesota’s interior offensive line is the weak point in this unit, so I would expect Parsons to be used more as an inside pressure point this week. That leaves DeMarcus Lawrence and Dorance Armstrong (5 sacks each) on an island in what should be one-on-one matchups with Minnesota tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. Darrisaw is a stud and has yet to allow a sack this season, so it will be important for O’Neill to play well opposite of him.
As good as their pass rush is, Dallas can be attacked on the ground. They’ve given up over 200 rushing yards in back-to-back games and are coughing up 4.8 YPC, making Dalvin Cook a top play. Cook is coming off a 100-yard performance against Buffalo, where he ripped off an 81-yard touchdown run in the second half. Minnesota has been limiting his touches more than we’ve seen in past years, but he has an 80%+ snap share, so I would be riding high with him this weekend.
Conventional wisdom would suggest putting the ball in Cook’s hands 25 times to attack Dallas. However, I think we need to note how the Minnesota offense has evolved this year. Cousins is on pace for 630 pass attempts, which would be the highest in his career by a fair margin. If the Vikings put the ball in his hands to throw 40+ times Sunday, Parsons could have a big day. However, I think this will come down primarily to that and how well Lawrence and Armstrong play on the outside. Darrisaw has been a brick wall, but O’Neill can be beaten. If the Vikings have to devote extra attention to Parsons, they will be vulnerable there.
Dallas desperately needs a win here, so Parsons will have to come up big, especially after he disappeared against Green Bay. I said in this space last week that Kirk Cousins was just a 36% passer when pressured, but there was a path to a 300-yard game from him. The game environment happened to break that way, but I’d argue that Minnesota won despite Cousins. Buffalo pressured him all day, and he tossed two interceptions. If it weren’t for Justin Jefferson‘s heroics and a wild sequence at the end of the game, the Vikings would probably be 7-2. Jefferson is always in play, and I like Cook, although I hope Minnesota uses him the same way Green Bay used Aaron Jones. If they do, he should get to 100-yards and a score. The Vikings have a sneaky narrow distribution of targets, so I’d be inclined to go back to the well on T.J. Hockenson, as he has 19 targets in two games with Minnesota. I also like the Dallas D, as Cousins can be mistake-prone, and they should be good for a 2-3 sack floor.
Tennessee Titans DL (6th in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ Green Bay Packers OL (8th in FantasyPros OL Rankings)
Green Bay showed signs of life in Week 10 in a win over Dallas. The Packers have finally got their running game going, which has averaged 173.7 yards over the last three games and ranks 6th in the league in DVOA. Now they get a Titans team that allows just 85 yards rushing per game and is #1 in the league in adjusted line yards defensively. Tennessee hasn’t allowed a back to rush for 100 yards since Saquon Barkley gashed them back in Week 1. This should be a fun matchup for football purists.
The Packers have hopefully figured out that leaning on the ground game gives them the best chance to win. When Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combine for 30 or more combined touches, Green Bay is 4-1. Jones is on pace for a career season and should go over 1,000 scrimmage yards Thursday night. Due to injuries, Green Bay was using multiple combinations along the offensive line this year, but they are as healthy as they’ve been. David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins have been a boost here, but this will be a big challenge. Tennessee boasts Jeffery Simmons inside, who holds up very well against the run and kept their linebackers clean. Simmons has been dominant at times this year, ranking in the top 10 among interior defensive linemen in sacks, QB pressures, and run stuffs.
If Green Bay can’t establish itself on the ground, Aaron Rodgers will look to put together another strong game. Like the running game, Rodgers has benefited from the improved health of the Green Bay offensive line. This group is coming off perhaps its best game, giving up just five pressures on 23 Rodgers’ dropbacks against the top pass rush in football last week. While the Tennessee pass defense has been better in recent weeks, they are still exploitable through the air giving up the 4th most passing yards in the league. The best way to beat Rodgers this year is to get in his face, as he has seemingly lost a step. Fortunately, Denico Autry, Rashad Weaver, and Mario Edwards each have over 20 pressures on the year as well.
This is a classic “chicken or the egg” strength-on-strength matchup when Green Bay has the ball. I tend to lean toward the home team in matchups like this, but for fantasy purposes, things might be a little lean here. Tennessee plays slowly and will try to slow the game down, so Green Bay will need to be efficient with their drives. Getting Jones going early will be critical, but it should be noted that he had 26 touches Sunday. I would expect to see a fair amount of AJ Dillon on a short week to try and keep Jones fresh. If Simmons is wrecking things in the middle, it could be a tough night for the Packers on offense. Jones is a lock-button start, but I would be treading lightly with Dillon, Rodgers, and Christian Watson.
Quick Hits
Detroit Lions DL (30th in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ New York Giants OL (29th in FantasyPros OL Rankings)
This is your weekly, “play a running back against Detroit” blurb. Ignore New York’s OL being 29th in our rankings and instead focus on the fact they (A) have Saquon Barkley and (B) rank 4th in the league in rush yards. The Lions are 31st in rush yards allowed and yards per carry. They’ve also given up 15 touchdowns on the ground. I love Barkley again this week, and after seeing what Justin Fields did to Detroit in Week 10, I am comfortable rolling out Daniel Jones and his rushing upside as a high-end QB2.
Philadelphia Eagles DL(4th in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ Indianapolis Colts OL (31st in FantasyPros OL Rankings)
Jonathan Taylor got back on track against Las Vegas, romping for 147 yards and a touchdown. He is virtually no competition for touches, but the Colts rank 31st in rush DVOA and adjusted line yards offensively. Philadelphia has been much more stingy against the pass, giving up the 2nd-fewest yards so far this season through the air and ranking 1st in pass DVOA. This could be a sneaky good spot for Taylor, who appears to be back to full health in an offense that seems more committed to running the football. Indianapolis should saddle him up to keep Matt Ryan from playing hero ball, so they can keep pace in the AFC South.
Cincinnati Bengals OL(22nd in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Pittsburgh Steelers DL (13th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
Don’t look now, but Pittsburgh’s defense might be getting its groove back. TJ Watt returned last week, and his presence was obvious. Somewhat quietly, opposite of him, Alex Highsmith has already amassed 8.5 sacks on the year. Watt takes up an enormous amount of attention, but Highsmith is starting to make a name for himself. Cincinnati’s rebuilt offensive line has been terrible, giving up 32 sacks through nine games. La’el Collins hasn’t been worth his massive contract, and Jonah Williams has surrendered nine sacks – the worst in the league. Watt and Highsmith could have a field day Sunday, and I think the Steelers D is a great play this weekend.
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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.