Welcome to Week 5 of the NHL fantasy hockey season, and I hope your squad is doing well. As always, Wednesday is the day to bring you some buy-and-sell trade advice, so let’s dive in and find some candidates on each side!
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Buy
I actually highlighted Lee in my waiver wire suggestions at low ownership a couple of weeks back, but if he’s claimed in your league, I’d suggest making a deal for the Islanders’ captain. At 66.3% owned in ESPN leagues, his price tag should be as high as other stars around the league.
The fantasy shine wore off Lee last season when he recorded just 46 points in 76 games with only 159 shots on goal. However, keep in mind that was his first season back from ACL surgery on a low-scoring Islanders offense. The Isles’ offense seems to be improved this season under new head coach Lane Lambert, and Lee has been a major beneficiary of the increased production.
Through 14 games, Lee has collected eight goals and 14 points on 40 shots on goal. His shot volume has gone from 2.09 shots per game last season all the way to 2.86 per game this season. Lee is also delivering in the hits (27), power-play points (4), penalty minutes (21), and plus-minus (plus-two) categories this season.
At 20%, his shooting rate should regress moving forward. However, he’s been a cross-category beast so far that you should inquire about now before his value gets too high.
Teuvo Teravainen (LW, RW – CAR)
If you want a buy-low candidate with plenty of positive regression ahead of him, Teuvo Teravainen is a solid target.
With zero goals and five points through 12 games, Teravainen is curiously off to a slow start despite skating alongside No. 1 center Sebastian Aho. Teravainen has been bumped to the second power-play unit, which helps explain his zero power-play points. Still, it’s rather shocking to see Teravinen post such subpar production despite his center having 15 points on the campaign.
Teravainen doesn’t offer much in the shots, hits, and penalty minutes categories, but from a pure points production standpoint, don’t be surprised if he goes on a tear moving forward. Here’s a player that collected 22 goals and 65 points in 77 games last season and has as many as 76 points in a season back in the 2018-19 campaign. At just 28 years old, he should be right in the prime of his career.
His value has been crushed in the early going, but if you’re looking for points production — leaning on the assist side — Teravainen is a fine option to buy low.
Tristan Jarry’s Pittsburgh Penguins are amid an ugly seven-game losing streak, and Jarry has been shelled during that time. However, this is a guy goaltender backed by a high-octane offense, and I doubt he’s in jeopardy of losing his starting job to Casey DeSmith despite the two sharing the crease over the last few games.
Jarry’s numbers have sunk to a 3.38 GAA and .903 Sv% across eight starts on the season, thanks to surrendering six goals in two of his last four starts. However, he also opened the season by allowing five goals across his first three starts. To be sure, the guy is capable of more than he’s shown of late.
He needs to be better than he has been, but it’s not as if he’s playing behind a shotty back end. The Penguins rank fifth in high-danger chances against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, so they’ve protected their netminders pretty well, but the goalies haven’t been up to par.
Jarry turned in a 2.42 GAA and .919 Sv% across 58 outings last season when his 21.13 goals saved above average ranked seven league-wide. He was one of the league’s better goaltenders last season.
I would suggest things can only go up here for the 27-year-old so consider Jarry, a strong netminder whose value has taken a late hit.
Sell
It may seem foolish to sell on the starting netminder for the Carolina Hurricanes; however, Andersen’s health is a major red flag, and it’s reared its head once again.
We don’t quite know the extent of his injury, but just eight starts into his season, he’s on the shelf with an undisclosed ailment. Andersen has posted a mediocre 2.72 GAA and .891 Sv% in eight appearances despite playing behind one of the best defenses in the league, so his performance hasn’t even been worthy despite collecting five wins in that time.
Of course, when healthy, Andersen was one of the best goaltenders in the league last season, posting a 2.17 GAA and .922 Sv% in 52 games, but he hasn’t exceeded that many outings since the 2018-19 season. At this point, he doesn’t appear to be a workhorse goaltender, or at least one that can remain healthy.
Sometimes you have to trade good players to get good players, and given his inability to stay healthy in recent years, Andersen is an expendable commodity.
Rielly is another very good hockey player, but also one that is probably viewed more favorably than he should be.
With 10 assists in 14 games, the production is fine, and he’s gone 23 shots without a goal, so he’s due to find of the back of the net soon. However, Rielly doesn’t offer a ton in many other categories other than assists and perhaps special team points. He offers solid production, not elite production.
In those 14 games, Rielly has seven penalty minutes, 17 blocks, 14 hits, and a minus-four rating. He’ll continue to deliver solid stats across the board, given his 23:21 of average ice time, but I’d venture out and see what I could either get for him straight up or what he could offer as part of a package.
Perhaps he will pick up his play moving forward, but Rielly is an asset that you could use to nab a player you desire more.
We’re just five weeks into the fantasy season, but we can already tell who will compete and who will not in some of our leagues. If you’re not competing and know you have little chance of doing so, Bergeron is an asset you can use for the future.
He’s off to a fine start to his season with five goals and 11 points across 13 games with 44 shots on goal and a plus-nine rating. His goals, assists, shots, and plus-minus should remain healthy through the season. The problem is this season could be his last after taking some time to decide whether or not to return to the Bruins for the 2022-23 campaign.
It sounds silly to sell on the No. 1 center for one of the best teams in the NHL, but Bergeron hasn’t been a point-per-game player since the 2018-19 season, slowly removing him from the elite group of pivots in fantasy hockey.
He’s very much worth keeping if you’re going for a championship, but if you’re not, he needs to be on the block right now.
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