High-end fantasy football performances and weekly finishes are fueled by high numbers of routes run and high-value targets and touches. The majority of top scorers from Week 9 saw healthy doses of red-zone targets, air yards, deep targets and goal-line carries.
Targeting players who run a high percentage of routes is also a good approach for identifying breakout candidates, beatable player props, DFS targets and players to prioritize in the Week 10 fantasy football rankings and the 2022 rest-of-season rankings.
This weekly report will look at recent rates of routes run per dropback along with players who commanded a high rate of high-value opportunities compared to larger samples to find sleeper running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who are garnering more or fewer opportunities in the passing game heading into Week 10 and for the remainder of the 2022 season.
- Fantasy Football Week 10 Waiver Wire and FAAB Advice: Players to Target, Stash & Drop
- Fantasy Football Kicker Week 10 Guide, Rankings & Waiver Wire Advice
- Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 10
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups: Tight End Streamers
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups: Quarterback Streamers
- Fantasy Football Rest of Season Rankings
- Fantasy Football Panic Meter
Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice
Week 10 Bye Weeks: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, New York Jets
WIDE RECEIVERS
| Player | Routes | % of routes run per dropback | Targets | Target Share | Target Rate Per Route Run |
| Tee Higgins | 30 | 100% | 8 | 27% | 27% |
| Justin Jefferson | 43 | 100% | 13 | 33% | 30% |
| Davante Adams | 39 | 100% | 17 | 47% | 44% |
| Cooper Kupp | 31 | 100% | 9 | 35% | 29% |
| Terry McLaurin | 33 | 100% | 9 | 35% | 27% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 26 | 100% | 9 | 38% | 35% |
| A.J. Brown | 33 | 100% | 6 | 24% | 18% |
| Tyler Boyd | 29 | 100% | 6 | 20% | 21% |
| DeVonta Smith | 33 | 100% | 2 | 8% | 6% |
| Josh Palmer | 44 | 98% | 10 | 23% | 23% |
| Gabe Davis | 41 | 98% | 5 | 15% | 12% |
| Zay Jones | 32 | 97% | 5 | 17% | 16% |
| D.J. Moore | 31 | 97% | 6 | 20% | 19% |
| Terrace Marshall | 31 | 97% | 6 | 20% | 19% |
| Chris Godwin | 58 | 97% | 10 | 18% | 17% |
| Garrett Wilson | 28 | 97% | 9 | 38% | 32% |
| Kalif Raymond | 25 | 96% | 3 | 13% | 12% |
| Allen Lazard | 45 | 96% | 10 | 25% | 22% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 42 | 95% | 5 | 15% | 12% |
| Adam Thielen | 40 | 95% | 7 | 18% | 18% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 40 | 95% | 6 | 21% | 15% |
| Christian Kirk | 31 | 94% | 9 | 31% | 29% |
| Darnell Mooney | 35 | 92% | 8 | 30% | 23% |
| D.K. Metcalf | 35 | 92% | 6 | 19% | 17% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 31 | 91% | 6 | 20% | 19% |
| Rondale Moore | 40 | 91% | 10 | 30% | 25% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 20 | 91% | 1 | 8% | 5% |
| Parris Campbell | 38 | 90% | 5 | 18% | 13% |
| K.J. Osborn | 38 | 90% | 2 | 5% | 5% |
| Tyreek Hill | 28 | 90% | 8 | 28% | 29% |
| Allen Robinson II | 28 | 90% | 5 | 19% | 18% |
| Drake London | 24 | 89% | 7 | 30% | 29% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 69 | 88% | 12 | 19% | 17% |
| Mike Evans | 53 | 88% | 11 | 20% | 21% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 30 | 88% | 4 | 13% | 13% |
| Tyler Lockett | 33 | 87% | 5 | 16% | 15% |
| DeAndre Carter | 39 | 87% | 6 | 14% | 15% |
| Robbie Anderson | 38 | 86% | 3 | 9% | 8% |
| Denzel Mims | 25 | 86% | 4 | 17% | 16% |
| Stefon Diggs | 36 | 86% | 10 | 30% | 28% |
| Mack Hollins | 33 | 85% | 4 | 11% | 12% |
| Hunter Renfrow | 33 | 85% | 4 | 11% | 12% |
| Michael Bandy | 38 | 84% | 8 | 19% | 21% |
| Shi Smith | 27 | 84% | 2 | 7% | 7% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 26 | 84% | 7 | 24% | 27% |
| Sammy Watkins | 39 | 83% | 5 | 13% | 13% |
| Alec Pierce | 34 | 81% | 2 | 7% | 6% |
| Phillip Dorsett | 23 | 79% | 5 | 24% | 22% |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | 26 | 79% | 6 | 21% | 23% |
| Curtis Samuel | 26 | 79% | 4 | 15% | 15% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 20 | 74% | 2 | 9% | 10% |
| Tom Kennedy | 19 | 73% | 4 | 17% | 21% |
| Robert Woods | 16 | 73% | 2 | 15% | 13% |
| Chris Moore | 21 | 72% | 5 | 24% | 24% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 56 | 72% | 1 | 2% | 2% |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 29 | 69% | 3 | 9% | 10% |
| Trenton Irwin | 20 | 69% | 1 | 3% | 5% |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 26 | 68% | 2 | 7% | 8% |
| Tyquan Thornton | 23 | 68% | 4 | 13% | 17% |
| D’Wayne Eskridge | 24 | 63% | 2 | 6% | 8% |
| Quez Watkins | 20 | 61% | 2 | 8% | 10% |
| Cody Hollister | 13 | 59% | 1 | 8% | 8% |
| Trent Sherfield | 18 | 58% | 3 | 10% | 17% |
| Mecole Hardman | 45 | 58% | 9 | 15% | 20% |
| Damiere Byrd | 15 | 56% | 1 | 4% | 7% |
| Cam Sims | 18 | 55% | 1 | 4% | 6% |
| Scotty Miller | 31 | 52% | 8 | 15% | 26% |
| Van Jefferson | 16 | 52% | 5 | 19% | 31% |
| Ben Skowronek | 16 | 52% | 2 | 8% | 13% |
| Samori Toure | 22 | 47% | 4 | 10% | 18% |
| Tyron Johnson | 13 | 45% | 1 | 5% | 8% |
| Chase Claypool | 16 | 42% | 6 | 22% | 38% |
| Dante Pettis | 16 | 42% | 1 | 4% | 6% |
Davis was inefficient for the second straight week (2 for 33) despite decent volume (5 targets). But he saw 121 air yards and played 95% of the snaps (98% route participation). Those are the exact peripheral numbers to chase with the Bills’ upcoming schedule featuring the Vikings, Browns and Lions. Buy low. Worth noting as well that Bills slot WR Isaiah McKenzie played 66% of the snaps and ran a route on 69% of dropbacks…both season highs.
PJ Walker was benched for Baker Mayfield in the second half of Week 9. The Carolina WRs were all disappointing for the most part. D.J. Moore totaled 2 catches for 24 receiving yards on 6 targets. Terrace Marshall also saw 6 targets and scored in the 4th quarter. Moore and Marshall both posted 25% target shares with Mayfield under center. Although Marshall was more productive, catching 3 of his 5 targets for 53 yards plus 1 TD. It’s good news for Moore’s fantasy outlook rest of the season that Walker will be the starting quarterback on Thursday night. Moore’s Target share with Walker in the last two weeks sat at 37%.
Allen Lazard was back to fantasy WR1 status after a week missed. 4 catches for 87 yards and 1 TD on 10 targets (25% Target share). He ran a route on 96% of the dropbacks, earned 5 targets of 20-plus air yards and three red-zone targets. His rookie teammate Samouri Toure saw 3 deep targets as well, playing in for the injured Romeo Doubs. Doubs is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain.
Kadarius Toney only played 9 snaps, but started the game and was targeted immediately. He finished with 3 targets for 12 yards (33% target rate). His role should only increase in the Chiefs offense, making him a screaming buy-low option after doing nothing special in the final box score. Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ran 56 routes and was targeted once (2% target rate per route run). Woof.
Tom Brady attempted 58 passes in Week 9 so all of the Buccaneers pass-catchers have inflated target numbers between Mike Evans (11, 5-40), Chris Godwin (10, 7-36), Scott Miller (8, 7-53) and Cade Otton (6, 5-68). Godwin has been completely peppered with targets over the last four weeks, totaling 46 targets (11.5 per game), but the production has not followed. He’s averaged just 9.6 fantasy points per game (WR35) and scored zero TDs. He’s an interesting sell candidate if you can get a strong return based on those just looking at his volume numbers and not his 50th-ranked 1.32 yards per route run the last four weeks.
There is no WR1 in Baltimore. Rashod Bateman will miss the rest of the season, which has placed bigger roles on Devin Duvernay, James Proche and Demarcus Robinson. Duvernay ran the highest percentage of routes on Monday night (80%) but commanded only 1 target. Robinson actually led the Ravens WRs in targets for a second straight week (4), but caught one for just 12 yards. Soon-to-be 36-year old DeSean Jackson ran a route on just 20% of dropbacks, and finished with one catch for 16 yards.
HIGH-VALUE TARGETS:
RED-ZONE TARGETS, AIR YARDS AND DEEP TARGETS
| Player | Air Yards Share | Air Yards | Deep Catches | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets | Red-Zone TDs |
| Davante Adams | 55% | 194 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 48% | 187 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 46% | 177 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 36% | 150 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 55% | 134 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 31% | 121 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 31% | 120 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 45% | 118 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 42% | 112 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Samori Toure | 23% | 97 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 40% | 96 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 40% | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 84% | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 49% | 77 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 27% | 73 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 49% | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 17% | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 29% | 71 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 16% | 71 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Moore | 41% | 69 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall | 39% | 67 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 46% | 67 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | 40% | 67 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 41% | 67 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 18% | 65 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 26% | 64 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Drake London | 18% | 61 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 22% | 61 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 33% | 60 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 14% | 60 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 32% | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 26% | 56 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 31% | 55 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 33% | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 27% | 48 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 11% | 48 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Bandy | 19% | 46 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 21% | 46 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Scotty Miller | 16% | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 20% | 44 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin | 16% | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 23% | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 19% | 42 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson II | 17% | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 24% | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 22% | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| D.K. Metcalf | 45% | 34 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| K.J. Osborn | 9% | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 8% | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 9% | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 16% | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 18% | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 17% | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robbie Anderson | 14% | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 16% | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 32% | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jake Kumerow | 6% | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| N’Keal Harry | 10% | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 12% | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 5% | 20 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
TOP TAKEAWAYS
- Without Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins, Phillip Dorsett led the Texans in routes run for the second straight week (79%) catching 3 of 5 targets for 69 yards (49% air yards share). However, slot WR Chris Moore led all Texans with 4 catches on 5 targets (24% Target share) for 43 yards and 1 TD. Moore was constantly being targeted with passes behind the line of scrimmage.
- Don’t freak out about DeVonta Smith. He’s posted back-to-back dud weeks, but that’s just par for the course for any non-elite fantasy WR competing for targets with two other studs in A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert. But what separates Smith from most wide receivers is his role in the Eagles offense: 100% route participation in Week 9.
- Tyquan Thornton played fewer snaps and ran fewer routes than Kendrick Bourne in Week 9. Although we often see rookies get a boost post-bye weeks, Thornton’s role has been too inconsistent to consider keeping him through Week 10. DeVante Parker will likely be coming back, making it tougher for Thornton to maintain a consistent role in the Patriots passing game that has been anything but consistent.
- Michael Pittman Jr. posted a 21% Target share but just caught 3 balls for 22 on 6 targets. Alec Pierce had the most receiving yards (23) on the Colts. Woof. This is the new reality with the Colts offense. Their offensive line can’t protect their QB, which means all these WRs are going to suffer. Pittman is turning into the Colts version of Diontae Johnson averaging 5 yards per target with Sam Ehlinger under center the last two weeks.
- Garrett Wilson. Stud. 8 for 92 yards on a 37% Target share and 92% snap share. Alpha. Denzel Mims finished second with 4 targets and snaps (83%). No targets for Elijah Moore. Drop him.
- Terry McLaurin led the Commanders with nine targets in Week 9 but finished with just 5 for 56 on a 35% Target share. Curtis Samuel‘s volume remained low (4 targets) but he scored and led with 65 receiving yards. Samuel has just a 15% Target share in the last two games (4 per game) and 6 total receptions for 115 yards (19.1 yards per catch). Considering his late dependence on big plays, the potential return of Jahan Dotson and a brutal matchup versus the Eagles in Week 10…I’d be selling off Samuel to the highest bidder.
- Tee Higgins led the Bengals with 8 targets (7-60) followed by Tyler Boyd (6 targets, 5-44). Target shares were relatively flat across the board. No need to throw this game a blowout by halftime. But each ran a route on 100% of Joe Burrow‘s dropbacks.
- Josh Palmer ALERT. The Chargers de-facto No. 1 WR delivered an 8-106-0 receiving line on a team-high 10 targets (23% Target share). He made great use of his role on offense, running a route on 98% of Justin Herbert‘s dropbacks.
- Chase Claypool was targeted 6 times in his debut, but just caught 2 passes for 13 yards. However, he only ran 16 routes, meaning he was targeted at a 38% clip.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown dominated the targets (38%, 35% target rate) in the Lions offense while running a route on 100% of the dropbacks. But the second-year WR finished just 4 catches for 55 yards on 9 targets. He also posted a ridiculous 84% air yards share, as the only target Jared Goff was considering downfield. If a manager is souring after a “meh” performance, you need to be aggressive in targeting ASB through trade.
- WRs that saw multiple deep targets that failed to haul them include Van Jefferson (3), Mack Hollins (2), Julio Jones (2), and Parris Campbell (2). Gabe Davis, Mike Evans, DeAndre Carter, D.J. Moore, Denzel Mims, Tyquan Thornton, Marvin Jones, and Drake London were some of the names that saw 1 deep target that did not register a deep reception.
- Van Jefferson had a game to forget, going 0-for-5 on his targets. He compiled a grand total of 134 air yards (55%) with zero production. These are typical “prayer yards” that you do not want to chase. The Rams offensive line can’t protect Matthew Stafford to allow plays to develop downfield. And the Arizona Cardinals (Rams’ opponent in Week 10) limit big plays downfield better than any other defense.
- WRs/TEs/RBs that saw multiple red-zone targets that did not register a receiving score in Week 9 include Drake London (5), T.J. Hockenson (3), Allen Lazard (3), Sammy Watkins (3), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2) and Jerick McKinnon (2)
- Sell Mecole Hardman. He has been running hot with TDs in his last 2 games, but his scoring won’t maintain with his role in the offense. He ran a route in just 58% of Patrick Mahomes‘ dropbacks and saw just a 13% Target share in Week 9.
- Chris Olave‘s Target share reign continues. 32% Target share in Week 9, catching 6 of his 9 targets for 71 receiving yards. Olave owns a 29% Target share since Week 2.
Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice
RUNNING BACKS
| Player | Routes | % of routes run per dropback | Targets | Target Share | Target Rate Per Route Run |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 24 | 71% | 7 | 23% | 29% |
| Dalvin Cook | 28 | 67% | 6 | 15% | 21% |
| Travis Etienne | 22 | 67% | 2 | 7% | 9% |
| Devin Singletary | 28 | 67% | 5 | 15% | 18% |
| James Conner | 29 | 66% | 5 | 15% | 17% |
| Jerick McKinnon | 50 | 64% | 8 | 13% | 16% |
| Austin Ekeler | 28 | 62% | 9 | 21% | 32% |
| Miles Sanders | 20 | 61% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| A.J. Dillon | 28 | 60% | 4 | 10% | 14% |
| Dameon Pierce | 17 | 59% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Leonard Fournette | 34 | 57% | 7 | 13% | 21% |
| Kenneth Walker | 21 | 55% | 4 | 13% | 19% |
| Antonio Gibson | 18 | 55% | 3 | 12% | 17% |
| David Montgomery | 20 | 53% | 2 | 7% | 10% |
| Josh Jacobs | 19 | 49% | 3 | 8% | 16% |
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 48% | 5 | 17% | 36% |
| Deon Jackson | 20 | 48% | 3 | 11% | 15% |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | 13 | 42% | 3 | 10% | 23% |
| Michael Carter | 12 | 41% | 1 | 4% | 8% |
| Raheem Mostert | 12 | 39% | 2 | 7% | 17% |
| Malcolm Brown | 12 | 39% | 1 | 4% | 8% |
| Samaje Perine | 11 | 38% | 2 | 7% | 18% |
| Darrell Henderson | 11 | 35% | 1 | 4% | 9% |
| D’Onta Foreman | 11 | 34% | 3 | 10% | 27% |
| Khalil Herbert | 13 | 34% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Travis Homer | 13 | 34% | 3 | 9% | 23% |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 11 | 33% | 2 | 8% | 18% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 9 | 33% | 1 | 4% | 11% |
| Aaron Jones | 15 | 32% | 2 | 5% | 13% |
| Derrick Henry | 7 | 32% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Raheem Blackshear | 10 | 31% | 4 | 13% | 40% |
| James Robinson | 9 | 31% | 2 | 8% | 22% |
| Rex Burkhead | 9 | 31% | 2 | 10% | 22% |
| Jordan Wilkins | 13 | 31% | 5 | 18% | 38% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 30% | 1 | 4% | 13% |
| Rachaad White | 17 | 28% | 3 | 5% | 18% |
| Ameer Abdullah | 11 | 28% | 3 | 8% | 27% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 9 | 27% | 3 | 12% | 33% |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 6 | 27% | 1 | 8% | 17% |
| D’Andre Swift | 7 | 27% | 4 | 17% | 57% |
| Eno Benjamin | 11 | 25% | 1 | 3% | 9% |
| Spencer Brown | 8 | 25% | 3 | 10% | 38% |
| James Cook | 10 | 24% | 4 | 12% | 40% |
| Justin Jackson | 6 | 23% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| J.J. Taylor | 7 | 21% | 1 | 3% | 14% |
| Keaontay Ingram | 9 | 20% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jamaal Williams | 5 | 19% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| JaMycal Hasty | 6 | 18% | 1 | 3% | 17% |
| Hassan Haskins | 4 | 18% | 1 | 8% | 25% |
| Isiah Pacheco | 14 | 18% | 1 | 2% | 7% |
| Zamir White | 7 | 18% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 17% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Cam Akers | 5 | 16% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Caleb Huntley | 4 | 15% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Alexander Mattison | 6 | 14% | 1 | 3% | 17% |
| Troy Hairston | 4 | 14% | 1 | 5% | 25% |
| Isaiah Spiller | 6 | 13% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 10 | 13% | 2 | 3% | 20% |
| Sony Michel | 5 | 11% | 1 | 2% | 20% |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 10% | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | 10% | 1 | 4% | 25% |
Dolphins RBs Raheem Mostert (9) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (9) split carries, drives and snaps in Week 9, but Mostert scored on the ground. Wilson hit higher rushing yardage total (51 vs 26) and was more involved as a receiver with 3 targets and more routes run (42% versus 39%). He also scored through the air. It’s looking like a complete 50/50 split, with a potential slight lean towards Wilson considering it was his first game with the Dolphins and he earned a 52% opportunity share on more snaps played. But because Mostert still scored, I think he still has enough value to be traded before Week 10. That’s the move to make.
Rhamondre Stevenson season continues. No Damien Harris in Week 9. Stevenson totaled 18 touches for 70 yards and 1 receiving TD (led the team with 7 targets, 23% Target share). Elite 74% route participation. Stevenson owns a team-high 22% Target share since Mac Jones took back starting duties in Week 7. Although in Week 9, it should be noted that No. 2 RB J.J. Taylor was involved even before the game was well out of reach for Indy. 10 carries for 9 yards and 1 catch for 8 yards. He also earned a goal-line carry (stuffed of course).
Michael Carter (12 for 76) and James Robinson (13 for 48) split carries in Week 9, but Carter played more snaps (52% vs 40%) and scored a rushing TD. Robinson out-targeted Carter (2 vs 1) and caught a receiving TD. Carter ran more routes and each had a carry inside the 10-yard line. Most of Robinson’s rushing production came in the 4th quarter as the Jets were looking to close the game (6 carries for 35 yards). And considering this was just Robinson’s second game with New York and he still had a solid workload despite entering the game with a game-time decision knee injury (also led the Jets in RB opportunities) he’d be a buy for me in trades this week. He is already starting to take over the early-down work and he has a longer track record of success, being a fantasy RB1 in back-to-back seasons since he entered the league. He is likely cheaper to acquire than Carter and has a divine playoff schedule. Lions, Jaguars (revenge game) and Seahawks. Wheels up for Robinson in games they can potentially win and keep close with their strong defense. But as a side note, I don’t mind trading for Carter either if he isn’t being valued highly by his manager, as he is still going to be involved while healthy.
A.J. Dillon mustered 11 carries for 34 yards plus 4 targets, 2 catches and 10 receiving yards in relief of Aaron Jones, who left Week 9 with an ankle injury. Reports have been optimistic about Jones’ ankle and his availability to play this week, but let’s be real here. Ankle injuries have nuked the fantasy values of several RBs this season, and the Packers offense is hardly one that is creating a favorable offensive environment for its players. Dillon will force his way into touches as the healthier of the 2 RBs, making Jones a MUST-SELL before this gets ugly. And Dillon is also probably a sell as well, just based on the hope he will produce in a potential full-time role.
The gap is narrowing. Leonard Fournette saw just one more carry than Rachaad White (8 vs 9) in Week 9 despite out-snapping him 62% to 35%. Fournette did finish with more targets (7 vs 3) and routes (35 vs 17). But White’s 11 touches were the highest they’ve been over the past three weeks. As Lombard Lenny continues to run inefficiently – 2.1 yards per carry in Week 9, dead last in the NFL in rushing EPA – you want to get out from underneath him and gain exposure to White wherever possible.
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – ATL)
Cordarrelle Patterson returned to the starting lineup in Week 9, leading the Falcons in carries (13 for 44 yards) and 2 rushing TDs. C-Patt posted a 42% opportunity share, playing 39% of the snaps.
However, he did not completely take over the backfield as Tyler Allgeier (38% snap share) carried the ball 10 times for 99 yards. Caleb Huntley (21% snap share) also remained involved with 7 carries for 34 yards. None were overly engaged as receivers, per usual. I understand the “idea” to sell high on C-Patt based on his principles behind his low snap share, but this is exactly how they used him last year. Also possible his snaps will increase another week back from injury. Don’t want to move him with the Panthers and Bears up in his two next matchups. If anything buy-low on Tyler Allgeier who will likely still stay plenty involved in the NFL’s most run-happy offense.
Brian Robinson Jr. out-carried Antonio Gibson 13 to 11, but neither averaged more than 3.5 yards per carry nor scored. Both caught 2 passes. However, Gibson out-snapped Robinson for the second straight week (58% vs 44%) while running a route on 60% of dropbacks (3 targets). With no timetable on the return of J.D. McKissic, I’d still be looking to buy AG with the backfield usage trending in his direction.
Kenyan Drake totaled 26 touches for over 100 yards on Monday Night Football versus the Saints dominating the usage with a 81% opportunity share. Justice Hill saw just 4 carries. Drake’s clearly the go-to guy when Gus Edwards/J.K. Dobbins aren’t available and that makes him worth holding through the bye week. But he’s also a prime sell-high for the exact reason that his role could vanish or reduce dramatically when the Ravens backfield gets more healthy.
RB Opportunity Share | Week 9
Goal-line carries (Any carry inside the 10-yard line)
| Player | Carries | Touches | Opportunities | Goal-Line Carries | Goal-line TDs | Overall Opportunity Share |
| Dameon Pierce | 27 | 27 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 90% |
| Joe Mixon | 22 | 26 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 90% |
| Dalvin Cook | 17 | 19 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 88% |
| Travis Etienne | 28 | 30 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 88% |
| Kenneth Walker | 26 | 29 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 86% |
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 80% |
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 17 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 74% |
| Jamaal Williams | 24 | 24 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 71% |
| David Montgomery | 14 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 70% |
| Miles Sanders | 17 | 17 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 68% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 15 | 18 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 67% |
| James Conner | 7 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 67% |
| Darrell Henderson | 12 | 12 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 62% |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 12 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 59% |
| Deon Jackson | 11 | 13 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 58% |
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 21 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 58% |
| A.J. Dillon | 11 | 13 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 56% |
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 14 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 53% |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | 9 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 52% |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 13 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 52% |
| James Robinson | 13 | 15 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Antonio Gibson | 11 | 13 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 48% |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 48% |
| Raheem Mostert | 9 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 48% |
| Michael Carter | 12 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 43% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 13 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 42% |
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 41% |
| D’Onta Foreman | 7 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 38% |
| Rachaad White | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 37% |
| James Cook | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 36% |
| Raheem Blackshear | 5 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 35% |
| Jordan Wilkins | 3 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 33% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 33% |
| J.J. Taylor | 10 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 33% |
| Khalil Herbert | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 30% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 4 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28% |
| Eno Benjamin | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 28% |
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27% |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 26% |
| Isiah Pacheco | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 26% |
| Cam Akers | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24% |
| Spencer Brown | 3 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 23% |
| Caleb Huntley | 7 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 21% |
| D’Andre Swift | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18% |
| Isaiah Spiller | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18% |
TOP TAKEAWAYS:
- It’s been back-to-back weeks for Dameon Pierce where he has seen at least 90% of the team’s backfield opportunities. And although he was out-targeted 2-0 by Rex Burkhead, Pierce still ran more routes (59% vs 31%) and out-touched him 27-2.
- Miles Sanders earned just a 68% opportunity share in Week 9, carrying the ball 17 times for 93 yards and 1 TD. However, he was not targeted despite running a route on 61% of dropbacks. Kenneth Gainwell earned 3 targets (33% target rate per route run)
- Colts RB Deon Jackson totaled 13 touches for just 36 yards (58% opportunity share) before his knee injury. Jordan Wilkins operated as next-man up (3 carries, 5 targets, 18% Target share) ahead of Phillip Lindsay. Wilkins would be the presumed fantasy target should Jonathan Taylor and Jackson fail to get ready for Week 11. Although, it could also be Zack Moss that takes on the next-man-up role after he was inactive in Week 9 after being traded from the Buffalo Bills.
- Devin Singletary led Bills in carries (8 for 24) and targets (5 for 24 yards on 4 catches, 15% Target share). 59% opportunity share. 74% snap share. James Cook with just 6 touches and Nyheim Hines with only 1 target. Pretty status quo for the Buffalo backfield.
- Dalvin Cook compiled 19 touches but for just 49 yards. However, he did score on one of his 6 targets and dominated the workload with an 88% opportunity share (tied for the third-highest mark on the week, pending MNF).
- Travis Etienne’s bellcow season continues…28 carries for 109 yards and 2 rushing TDs. 88% opportunity share. JaMycal Hasty had just 4 touches.
- In James Conner‘s return to the starting lineup he handled 7 of the 12 RB carries. But his biggest impact was as a receiver, catching all 5 of his targets for 19 yards while running a route on 66% of the dropbacks. 67% opportunity share overall for Conner after missing 3 games.
- Darrell Henderson led the Rams backfield with 12 carries for 56 yards (1 target, 49% snap share). Cam Akers totaled 5 carries for 3 yards. Malcolm Brown went 2 for 9 yards but ran the most routes. Behind arguably the league’s worst offensive line, nobody can be played from this backfield. Rookie Kyren Williams is worth a speculative addition off the waiver wire, but he’s fighting a massive uphill battle amid this horrid situation.
- Isiah Pacheco started for the second straight game and led the team with 5 carries for 5 yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire totaled 4 carries for 5 yards, but also saw two targets. Jerick McKinnon dominated the backfield touches (9) and snaps (62%) in the pass-heavy game plan. 6 for 40 receiving on 8 targets (64% route participation). Sell this backfield, wherever possible.
- Jamaal Williams rushed 24 times for 81 yards but did not score. D’Andre Swift earned just 2 carries for 10 yards (fewer than Justin Jackson, who went 4 for 27). Swift did see receiving usage, catching 3 of 4 targets for 40 yards (57% target rate per route run, 17% Target share). Swift’s explosiveness was on full display considering he averaged 10 yards per touch. However, his snap share (16%) amid his ongoing injury issues is a real concern. Very hard to justify trading for him, knowing quite well that the Lions want to limit his work and could easily shut him down in a losing season. But there’s n denying that the talent profile of Swift will never be cheaper than it is now. If you are sitting at 3-6 or 2-7 and are looking to make one last move towards a fantasy playoff run, buying-low on Swift might be worth the risk.
- RBs that saw carries inside the 10-yard line that did not score in Week 9 include Jamaal Williams (3), Dalvin Cook (3), A.J. Dillon (2) and Rhamondre Stevenson (2).
- With Justin Fields doing it all in Week 9, not much was left over for the RBs. David Montgomery (14 for 36) and Khalil Herbert (7 for 23). Monty also earned 2 targets for a 70% opportunity share. Monty dominated the snaps for two straight weeks, so the coaching staff doesn’t seem to be embracing the shift to drinking the Herbert juice. Therefore, Montgomery (and Herbert for even less) is a cheap trade-for option with the Lions, Falcons and Packers presenting 3 of their next 4 opponents. Herbert leads the Bears in rushing yards over the last four weeks (258 vs 218) despite 17 fewer carries than Montgomery.
TIGHT ENDS
| Player | Routes | % of routes run per dropback | Targets | Target Share | Target Rate Per Route Run |
| Zach Ertz | 43 | 98% | 8 | 24% | 19% |
| Cade Otton | 53 | 88% | 6 | 11% | 11% |
| Foster Moreau | 34 | 87% | 5 | 14% | 15% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 36 | 86% | 9 | 23% | 25% |
| Travis Kelce | 65 | 83% | 17 | 27% | 26% |
| Cole Kmet | 31 | 82% | 6 | 22% | 19% |
| Gerald Everett | 36 | 80% | 8 | 19% | 22% |
| Tyler Conklin | 23 | 79% | 2 | 8% | 9% |
| Dawson Knox | 32 | 76% | 4 | 12% | 13% |
| Dallas Goedert | 25 | 76% | 9 | 36% | 36% |
| Hayden Hurst | 21 | 72% | 5 | 17% | 24% |
| Kyle Pitts | 19 | 70% | 7 | 30% | 37% |
| Brock Wright | 18 | 69% | 1 | 4% | 6% |
| Brevin Jordan | 20 | 69% | 2 | 10% | 10% |
| Logan Thomas | 22 | 67% | 3 | 12% | 14% |
| Hunter Henry | 22 | 65% | 4 | 13% | 18% |
| Noah Fant | 24 | 63% | 6 | 19% | 25% |
| Mike Gesicki | 19 | 61% | 2 | 7% | 11% |
| Tyler Higbee | 19 | 61% | 1 | 4% | 5% |
| Austin Hooper | 13 | 59% | 3 | 23% | 23% |
| Tommy Tremble | 18 | 56% | 4 | 13% | 22% |
| Evan Engram | 18 | 55% | 2 | 7% | 11% |
| Robert Tonyan | 23 | 49% | 4 | 10% | 17% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 19 | 45% | 2 | 7% | 11% |
| O.J. Howard | 12 | 41% | 2 | 10% | 17% |
| Jonnu Smith | 13 | 38% | 4 | 13% | 31% |
| Kylen Granson | 16 | 38% | 1 | 4% | 6% |
| Will Dissly | 14 | 37% | 4 | 13% | 29% |
| Noah Gray | 27 | 35% | 3 | 5% | 11% |
| C.J. Uzomah | 10 | 34% | 3 | 13% | 30% |
| Jordan Akins | 10 | 34% | 1 | 5% | 10% |
| Josiah Deguara | 16 | 34% | 5 | 13% | 31% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 7 | 32% | 3 | 23% | 43% |
| Shane Zylstra | 8 | 31% | 1 | 4% | 13% |
| Jack Stoll | 10 | 30% | 2 | 8% | 20% |
| John Bates | 8 | 24% | 2 | 8% | 25% |
| Dan Arnold | 8 | 24% | 1 | 3% | 13% |
| Jelani Woods | 10 | 24% | 3 | 11% | 30% |
| Colby Parkinson | 9 | 24% | 2 | 6% | 22% |
| Marcedes Lewis | 11 | 23% | 1 | 3% | 9% |
| Brycen Hopkins | 7 | 23% | 1 | 4% | 14% |
| Giovanni Ricci | 7 | 22% | 1 | 3% | 14% |
| Chris Manhertz | 6 | 18% | 2 | 7% | 33% |
| Durham Smythe | 5 | 16% | 2 | 7% | 40% |
| James Mitchell | 4 | 15% | 2 | 8% | 50% |
| MyCole Pruitt | 4 | 15% | 1 | 4% | 25% |
First game as Viking for T.J. Hockenson, no ramp up. 9 catches for 70 yards on 9 targets (24% Target share) while playing 91% of the snaps and running a route on 86% of dropbacks. This role was better than any role Irv Smith Jr. ever had all season. Hock’s a locked-and-loaded fantasy TE1 for the rest of the 2022 season.
Cole Kmet has a great role all season – 82% route participation, 97% snap share in Week 9 – and he’s finally converting it into production. 3 TDs in his last two games, and season-highs in catches (5) and targets (4) versus the Miami Dolphins. He’s more than stream-worthy in a plus-matchup versus the Lions in Week 10.
Poor Kyle Pitts. The Falcons tight end was targeted 20-plus air yards downfield on 5 separate throws in Week 9…but he came down with zero of them. With a 30% Target share, 37% target rate and 208 air yards to boot, Pitts’ Week 9 game will go down as the one that just got away from being a massive boom performance. The usage is encouraging for his long-term aspirations, but it’s always going to be a bumpy ride within the confines of the Atlanta Falcons’ run-heavy offense.
Noah Fant led the Seahawks in targets (6) and receiving yards (96) in a plus-matchup versus the Arizona Cardinals. His final receiving statline is inflated from a late 51-yard catch-and-run, but that’s the benefit to relying on a guy like Fant; his athleticism can give you that kind of upside that the Zach Ertz-molds cannot. And besides, he led the team in targets and receiving in the 1st half alone and ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks – well ahead of Will Dissly (37%).
And the Cardinals matchup is the exact reason why you should go right back to Tyler Higbee in Week 10. He only saw 1 target in Week 9, but he played 79% of the snaps and ran a route on 61% of dropbacks. I’d expect those to increase versus Arizona. Their defense ranks dead last in nearly every receiving category for TEs. And I can’t imagine Matthew Stafford forcing targets back to Van Jefferson after his abysmal play the past two weeks.
Josiah Deguara out-targeted Robert Tonyan (5 to 4) and led the team in catches (5) in Week 9. Tonyan played just 46% of the snaps and ran a route on just 49% of the dropbacks. Poor usage for a fantasy tight end. Even if there’s “no competition for targets” Tonyan has just been too inconsistent to confidently start, with his role teetering seemingly every week.
HIGH-VALUE TARGETS:
RED-ZONE TARGETS, AIR YARDS AND DEEP TARGETS
| Player | Air Yards Share | Air Yards | Deep Catches | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets | Red-Zone TDs |
| Kyle Pitts | 61% | 208 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 51% | 95 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 46% | 85 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 45% | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 33% | 52 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jelani Woods | 26% | 47 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 25% | 111 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 24% | 40 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 23% | 51 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Hunter Henry | 23% | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 21% | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 17% | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Asiasi | 17% | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 17% | 40 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 15% | 40 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 14% | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 13% | 50 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 11% | 45 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 10% | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 10% | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 10% | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 9% | 39 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Bates | 8% | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 8% | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 7% | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 7% | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 7% | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 6% | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 6% | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 6% | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 5% | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 5% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| James Mitchell | 5% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Manhertz | 5% | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3% | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3% | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ko Kieft | 2% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 2% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
TOP TAKEAWAYS:
- Dallas Goedert feasted on the Texans defense on Thursday night. 36% Target share, 8 catches for 100 yards and 1 TD. This a perfect example of elite route participation and snaps (91% snap share) translating into top-tier fantasy production at tight end.
- Houston tight end Brevin Jordan led the team in TE routes run (69%) and snaps (63%) for the second straight week.
- Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith continue to split snaps and routes more closely, making neither fantasy viable. Don’t hold either through bye weeks.
- Just a tough day at the office for Tyler Conklin. Earned the usage – 79% route participation, 72% snap share – well ahead of C.J. Uzomah. But Uzomah earned more targets. Better days ahead for Conklin, but no need to hold him over the bye week. He’s definitely riskier if Uzomah’s increased involvement as a receiver sticks.
- Logan Thomas with a goose egg (0-3) on 3 targets while running a route on 67% of dropbacks. I am convinced he’s still not fully healthy as the Commanders are reluctant to give him an every-down role. Thomas can’t be trusted until he does.
- Cade Otton ran a route on 88% of the Buccaneers’ dropbacks. His role is elite when Cameron Brate is out of the lineup. And Tom Brady going to him twice for 29 yards and 1 TD on the game-winning drive suggests the duo has built-up chemistry. If/when Brate returns, I am not so sure we see Otton go back to the bench. Make sure he is not available on waivers.
- Gerald Everett is a sneaky buy-low candidate. Didn’t do much in the stat sheet. 5 catches for less than 40 yards on 5 catches (8 targets). But his route participation was borderline elite at 80%.
- Isaiah Likely only caught one of his team-leading 5 targets (24% Target share) versus the Saints, but he made it count for a touchdown. He stepped up as the Ravens most-heavily involved pass-catcher, running route on 80% of dropbacks.
- Juwan Johnson saw his usage tick back up to 83% route participation in Week 9, but that usage resulted in just two targets for 42 yards. But you’ll take the elite usage with a 41-yard TD score all day every day. Kudos to being on the field a ton.
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