In this piece are my personal NFL Week 9 projections for every fantasy- and prop-relevant player (unless I missed one here or there).
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After my final update, if you want to see an even fresher set of player projections check out our official Week 9 FantasyPros projections, which we use on BettingPros to power our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and Prop Bet Analyzer, both of which are great resources.
While you can use these projections to make fantasy decisions, I recommend you also consult the following.
- My Week 9 Favorites
- My Week 9 Player Rankings
- Our Week 9 Expert Consensus Rankings
- Our Start/Sit Tool
NFL Week 9 Player Projections
My projections are organized by projected fantasy points. I use the default half-PPR FantasyPros scoring settings. Note that my projected fantasy points do include two-point conversions and fumbles lost (and passing production for Taysom Hill), but I haven’t included those projections in the following tables for the sake of space.
After my positional rankings, I’ve added a few player notes.
Please note that my projections differ from my rankings, which are much more intuitive and done by hand. With my rankings, I try to take upside and downside into account. I think about range of outcomes and potential expected value. I’m currently No. 9 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest after finishing No. 14 last year. My projections are largely automated and created with formulas in a spreadsheet. With my projections, I’m trying to forecast only the median.
NFL Week 9 QB Projections
NFL Week 9 QB Notes
Justin Herbert (LAC) at ATL: Out of all qualified starters (i.e., guys who aren't Joe Flacco and Brett Rypien), Herbert is No. 1 in pass attempts (44.0) and completions (29.0) per game. Off the Week 8 bye, the Chargers have a chance to get back WRs Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Joshua Palmer (concussion) and TE Donald Parham (concussion). The Falcons defense is No. 30 in dropback SR (52.4%, per RBs Don't Matter) and pass DVOA (23.8%, per Football Outsiders).
Geno Smith (SEA) at ARI: Smith is No. 1 in completion percentage (72.7%), No. 4 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.152) and No. 5 in AY/A (8.2) - just as we all expected before the season started. The Cardinals defense is No. 32 in dropback SR (54.1%). Road underdogs are 11-5 ATS against the Cardinals under HC Kliff Kingsbury (per Action Network).
Still not writing back.
3 straight wins for @GenoSmith3 and the @Seahawks. pic.twitter.com/T73QzK4a9q
— NFL (@NFL) October 30, 2022
Check out my Week 9 early betting breakdown on Seahawks at Cardinals.
Aaron Rodgers (GB) at DET: Rodgers is not the producer he was in his back-to-back MVP campaigns (9.2 AY/A in 2020-21 vs. 6.9 this year) - but he's still tied with Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith for No. 1 in the league with multiple touchdown passes in six games. No. 1 WR Allen Lazard (shoulder) might return to action this week. The Lions defense is No. 32 in dropback EPA per play (0.296) and pass DVOA (26.8%). Rodgers is 41-23-1 ATS off a loss.
there needs to be a national investigation into the lions defense compared to the rest of the league since week 4, pic.twitter.com/rlFrR4naHv
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) November 3, 2022
NFL Week 9 RB Projections
NFL Week 9 RB Notes
Austin Ekeler (LAC) at ATL: Ekeler underwhelmed in Weeks 1-3, but since Week 4 he has been an elite producer (league-high 25.0 FPPG, per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report), and for the year he has 737 yards and eight touchdowns from scrimmage. Ekeler is No. 4 with 52 receptions (including wide receivers and tight ends) and No. 1 at the position with 61 targets (per our Weekly Target Report). He should be fresh off the Week 8 bye. The Falcons defense is No. 32 in rush SR (48.5%).
Austin Ekeler is pacing for 148 targets, 129 receptions.
Christian McCaffrey holds the single-season records with 142 & 116 (2019, 16 games).
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 1, 2022
Travis Etienne (JAX) vs. LV: Last week without RB James Robinson (traded), Etienne hit career-high marks with 57 snaps, 27 opportunities and 162 yards - and he scored a touchdown for his second game in a row. Etienne is No. 1 among all backs with 75-plus carries with 1.31 rushing yards over expected (per the RYOE app). Etienne has a locked-in three-down role with three-plus targets in six games. The Raiders are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (29.9%).
Travis Etienne Weeks 1-8: ???
Weeks 1-4: 6.6 fantasy points per game
Weeks 5-8: 16.7
Weeks 7-8: 21.2
Week 8: 23.7— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 1, 2022
Jonathan Taylor (IND) at NE: As the No. 1 pick in most drafts, Taylor has massively disappointed (533 yards, one touchdown) - but he has also averaged 17.8 carries and 4.2 targets per game. Without QB Matt Ryan (benched), No. 2 RB Nyheim Hines (traded) and OC Marcus Brady (fired), the Colts could heavily lean on Taylor this week. The Patriots defense is No. 31 in rush SR (46.8%).
NFL Week 9 WR Projections
NFL Week 9 WR Notes
Justin Jefferson (MIN) at WAS: Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3 of his 2020 rookie campaign, Jefferson has averaged 97.3 yards on 9.4 targets per game with an elite mark of 10.4 yards per target. Jefferson is No. 2 - behind only Tyreek Hill - with 13 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Advanced WR Stats Report). The Commanders are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA (14.8%).
A.J. Brown (PHI) at HOU: Last week, Brown lit up our Game Day app with a position-high 36.6 fantasy points on an overpowering 6-156-3 receiving with 11 targets. The Texans are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (24.7%). I can't wait to see his touchdown celebrations this week.
AJ Brown — in two halves of football — pulled off two orchestrated dances from movies, the "you're too small" hand signal and the infamous finger point at multiple defenders guarding you in three TD celebrations.
no notes pic.twitter.com/zUuGrM7R0B
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 31, 2022
D.J. Moore (CAR) at CIN: After getting six targets in each of Weeks 1-3, Moore has 47 targets (and three carries) over his past five games. In the past two weeks, without No. 1 RB Christian McCaffrey and No. 2 WR Robbie Anderson - both of whom were traded in Week 7 - Moore has 13-221-2 receiving on 21 targets. Moore is No. 2 at the position - trailing only Cooper Kupp - with his 97% snap rate (per our Snap Count Leader Report). The Bengals are without No. 1 CB Chidobe Awuzie (knee), who suffered a season-ending injury on Monday Night Football.
PJ WALKER TO DJ MOORE, HOLY COW!pic.twitter.com/hNazMcWFwe
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 30, 2022
Romeo Doubs (GB) at DET: It's gross, but Doubs has a 90% snap rate since becoming a full-time player in Week 3 and is No. 2 on the team with a 19.4% target share since then. The Lions are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (45.4%).
I'm betting over 9.0 points for Doubs in the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
NFL Week 9 TE Projections
NFL Week 9 TE Notes
Travis Kelce (KC) vs. TEN: Kelce has either 90 yards or a touchdown in every game but one. Last year against the Titans, he had 7-65-0 receiving on 12 targets. This third point is just to say that Kelce's dominance as the No. 1 player at his position is unrivaled.
Despite not playing last week, no player has more touchdown catches this season than @tkelce ?
Now that's scary stuff. pic.twitter.com/SETv3ls3fk
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 31, 2022
Zach Ertz (SEA) at ARI: Ertz has seen a significant drop in targets with No. 1 DeAndre Hopkins (8.5 per game in Weeks 1-6; 4.5, Weeks 7-8), but he's still No. 2 at the position behind only Travis Kelce (15) with 14 red-zone targets (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). Against the Seahawks in Week 6, Ertz had 7-70-0 receiving on 10 targets, and in two games against the Seahawks last year he had 15-172-2 receiving on 19 targets. The Seahawks are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (18.3 FPPG).
Isaiah Likely (BAL) at NO: No. 1 TE Mark Andrews (shoulder) exited Week 8 early with an injury, and in his absence Likely went off with 6-77-1 receiving on seven targets. If Andrews is out or limited this week, Likely could have another big performance, as the Ravens are No. 1 in tight end volume (97 targets, 43.7% target share, per our Target Distribution Report). Also, we started the meme. Just sayin'.
"How many fantasy leagues are you joining this year?" pic.twitter.com/5dyT18WFWq
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) August 22, 2022
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