Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season, we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points. Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.
Teams projected for high Week 1 snap counts
Los Angeles Chargers
It’s great to be getting the Chargers and their fantasy players back this week. Los Angeles leads the league in seconds/snap and is tied for second in snaps/60 minutes. Their CER (38.4) is not ideal, but many of their skill players are still scoring plenty of fantasy points. Their efficiency should increase this week as they go up against the Atlanta Falcons, who have the 31st-ranked defense in EPA/play allowed. The Chargers should see a positive game script and run plenty of plays on Sunday.
Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season, we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points. Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.
Teams projected for high Week 1 snap counts
Los Angeles Chargers
It’s great to be getting the Chargers and their fantasy players back this week. Los Angeles leads the league in seconds/snap and is tied for second in snaps/60 minutes. Their CER (38.4) is not ideal, but many of their skill players are still scoring plenty of fantasy points. Their efficiency should increase this week as they go up against the Atlanta Falcons, who have the 31st-ranked defense in EPA/play allowed. The Chargers should see a positive game script and run plenty of plays on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are back this week and ready to run up the score. Kansas City leads the NFL in CER (98.1) and ranks 7th in seconds/snap. They should be rested, reloaded (Kadarius Toney trade), and ready to take on the Tennesse Titans. The Titans’ offense has been sluggish, to say the least. They run the slowest pace in the NFL and run the 2nd fewest snaps/60 minutes. Kansas City should be able to attack the Titans and control the game, leading to an abundance of plays run.
New Orleans Saints
Surprisingly, an Andy Dalton-lead offense is being featured in this section, yet this is where we are. New Orleans currently ranks top 10 in both snaps/60 minutes and CER, despite a bottom 10 pace. They should see a boost in efficiency this week when they battle the Baltimore Ravens, who don’t have a particularly good defense. I don’t necessarily think New Orleans will dominate or anything, but this game will likely be either a shootout or the Saints will have to play from behind, and either way, they’ll be in a game script that requires them to run a lot of plays.
Teams projected for low Week 1 snap counts
Indianapolis Colts
I predicted the Colts to run very few plays last week, and they did (54 plays ran). I expect this to continue. Their offense is not set up to be high-volume, with Sam Ehlinger at QB. I bring them up again because they draw an unfavorable matchup against New England’s stout defense. It’s hard to get excited about either offense in this game, but I struggle to see how the Colts can be effective against New England with their current personnel.
Houston Texans
While I think Houston has made some strides this year as a team, this is not a good week for them. They still rank bottom 5 in CER and snaps/60 minutes and will be met with opposition by Philadelphia and their smothering defense. Philadelphia’s offense is elite as well, so they should be able to play the game at their pace and leave little plays or efficiency to Houston.
New York Jets
After starting out the year with an absurd amount of plays run, the Jets have seen their season average decrease week-over-week for 5 consecutive weeks. This doesn’t pair well with an average pace and a measly 22.8 CER. Additionally, they play the Buffalo Bills, who have an outstanding defense. The Jets’ offense will likely be shut down and will struggle to move the ball and stay on the field.
*Data from the table comes from as follows: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/minutes-played?date=2022-01-10, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/pace-stats/2021, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-play?date=2022-01-11, https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/
**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.
Noteworthy Trends
- The Chicago Bears are no longer an offensive laughingstock. After starting the season with abysmal numbers, the Bears have seen significant improvement. They're running almost 60 plays a game and have a CER above 30. Their offense is not a juggernaut by any means, but it appears that some of their fantasy pieces are finally playable. For example, over the last 4 weeks, Justin Fields is the QB2 in total fantasy points scored and QB6 in PPG. Darnell Mooney even is 11th among all receivers in target share. This isn't an offense to necessarily target, but these two players, in particular, could be trade targets if your league mates aren't caught up to the Bears' recent competency. They could be good DFS plays at their current cost if nothing else.
- It's amazing how little Seattle's offense has changed with the departure of Russell Wilson. In 2021 (Wilson started most games), The Seahawks ran 55.4 plays/60 minutes and had a 76.6 CER. Through 8 games in 2022 (all with Geno Smith at QB), they have run 58.5 plays/60 minutes and have a 79.4 CER. It's shocking how close these numbers are. The only real change is they have increased their seconds/snap from 30.18 in 2021 to 32.47 in 2022 and, oddly enough, have run slightly more plays. I'm beginning to wonder how important Russell Wilson was to this team over the past few years...
- I'm baffled every week when I see how low the Chargers are in CER. They have all the makings of an efficient team. They have A+ talent at QB, RB, and WR, yet they can't put it together. Many have speculated that HC Brandon Staley might be a fake sharp, and I'm beginning to agree. The other culprit that's been tossed around is their offensive line, which is also possible. I think it's probably a combination of both. However, I think talent, as it does in most cases, will win out, and I'm going to continue to be bullish on the Chargers in fantasy and in "real life."
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