This recurring pseudo-start/sit article focuses on some of the players I feel are the safest or riskiest starts in fantasy football each week, especially relative to their ranking in the PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). It will mainly include more of the under-the-radar players. Always start your studs, as the big names will be omitted each week except in extreme circumstances. You can ask me start-sit questions on Twitter.
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Safest Starts
Geno Smith (QB – SEA)
Former number one overall pick Geno Smith has been a revelation this season, resurrecting a career that could only be described as a “bust” up until now. Smith completes 72.8% of his passes and sports a true completion mark of 77.7%, both leading the league among eligible passers. His accuracy has been stellar both under pressure, and with a clean pocket while throwing one of the best deep balls in the game. He’s thrown two touchdown passes in each of his last four games and now gets a soft Raiders secondary coming out of the Seahawks’ bye week. Vegas is allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks while allowing the sixth most yards per pass attempt. They haven’t gotten to the passer much, which should allow Geno ample time to push the ball downfield and build on three straight games of 19+ fantasy points. Consider him a strong QB1 this week.
This recurring pseudo-start/sit article focuses on some of the players I feel are the safest or riskiest starts in fantasy football each week, especially relative to their ranking in the PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). It will mainly include more of the under-the-radar players. Always start your studs, as the big names will be omitted each week except in extreme circumstances. You can ask me start-sit questions on Twitter.
Check out all of our weekly fantasy football content
Safest Starts
Geno Smith (QB – SEA)
Former number one overall pick Geno Smith has been a revelation this season, resurrecting a career that could only be described as a “bust” up until now. Smith completes 72.8% of his passes and sports a true completion mark of 77.7%, both leading the league among eligible passers. His accuracy has been stellar both under pressure, and with a clean pocket while throwing one of the best deep balls in the game. He’s thrown two touchdown passes in each of his last four games and now gets a soft Raiders secondary coming out of the Seahawks’ bye week. Vegas is allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks while allowing the sixth most yards per pass attempt. They haven’t gotten to the passer much, which should allow Geno ample time to push the ball downfield and build on three straight games of 19+ fantasy points. Consider him a strong QB1 this week.
James Conner (RB – ARI)
Since returning from a rib injury that kept him sidelined for three games, James Conner has tallied 48.4 fantasy points and is the RB6 across the last three weeks. He hasn’t been the most efficient back, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, but that hardly matters when he’s getting workhorse treatment in one of the fastest-paced offenses in the league. He always has a nose for the endzone and has scored three times in the last three weeks, but a matchup with the Chargers may allow him to boost the efficiency as well. The Chargers defense is allowing the most yards per carry to opposing running backs with 5.8 while surrendering the third most fantasy points to running backs. With Kyler Murray expected back this week, the offense should be operating at a higher level. That leaves James Conner on the RB1/2 border.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Still listed as questionable, JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a full participant in practice and is looking likely to suit up this weekend. You’ll still want to monitor his status, but he’s a strong option assuming he plays. There are many factors working in Smith-Schuster’s favor this week, but it starts with the matchup, as the Rams are allowing the ninth most points to opposing wide receivers this season. In addition, Kadarius Toney is unlikely to play this week, and Mecole Hardman is on IR, leaving Smith-Schuster in a prime position to see a heavy target volume. Before leaving Week 10 early, he had topped 18 fantasy points in three straight games. In that span, Juju posted 325 yards and two touchdowns. He’s in the WR2 mix this week.
Riskiest Starts
DJ Moore (WR – CAR)
It seemed as though DJ Moore was turning a corner in Weeks 7 and 8 when he scored 19.6 and 27.5 fantasy points, respectively. PJ Walker was throwing the ball around and things were looking good for Moore. Fast forward three weeks, and Moore hasn’t gotten to seven points or 30 yards in a game since. The offense is stagnant yet again, and the keys have been turned over to Sam Darnold. The keys to the offense have been shuffled between Walker, Baker Mayfield, and now Darnold many times this season. On top of that, Moore has a tall task this week against a Broncos secondary allowing the second-fewest points to wide receivers. He will likely see a lot of Patrick Surtain, who often travels with top receivers and has graded out as one the best cover corners in the league this year. Stay away from Moore if you can, but he’s likely in the WR3/4 range.
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB/WR – ATL)
After missing four weeks of action, Cordarrelle Patterson has played in the Falcons’ last three games but has yet to see 15 touches since his return. Tyler Allgeier has earned a share of the backfield and is holding on to it for now. Outside of his best rushing season last year, so much of Patterson’s value has been built on his pass catching, but he’s seen just four targets since week 9. Now the Falcons travel to Washington, where he will see one of the league’s top run defenses. The Commanders allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points and rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. If you must start Patterson this week, you’re hoping for a touchdown or a boost in targets, but he’s more of an RB3 this week.
Chad Workman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from him, check out his Twitter at @tweetsbychad.
