In this piece are my personal NFL Week 12 projections for every fantasy- and prop-relevant player (unless I missed one here or there).
This week, I will keep the following schedule for my projections.
- Tuesday: Do first pass of player projections in the morning.
- Thursday: Do initial update in the morning before the first Thanksgiving game.
- Saturday & Sunday: Do final update late on Saturday night or early on Sunday morning.
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After my final update, if you want to see an even fresher set of player projections check out our official Week 12 FantasyPros projections, which we use on BettingPros to power our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and Prop Bet Analyzer, both of which are great resources.
While you can use these projections to make fantasy decisions, I recommend you also consult the following.
- My Week 11 Favorites (available Wednesday)
- My Week 12 Player Rankings
- My Expected Fantasy Points Leaderboard (available Tuesday)
- Our Week 12 Expert Consensus Rankings
- Our Start/Sit Tool
NFL Week 12 Player Projections
My projections are organized by projected fantasy points. I use the default half-PPR FantasyPros scoring settings. Note that my projected fantasy points do include two-point conversions and fumbles lost (and passing production for Taysom Hill), but I haven’t included those projections in the following tables to save space.
After my positional rankings, I’ve added a few player notes.
Note that my projections differ from my rankings, which are much more intuitive and done by hand. With my rankings, I try to take upside and downside into account. I think about range of outcomes and potential expected value. I’m currently No. 10 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest after finishing No. 14 last year. My projections are largely automated and created with formulas in a spreadsheet. With my projections, I’m trying to forecast only the median.
NFL Week 12 QB Projections
NFL Week 12 QB Notes
Josh Allen (BUF) vs. DET: Over the past month, Allen (950-4-6 passing, 5.9 AY/A) has looked more like his 2018-19 self (6.2 AY/A) than the 2020-21 dominator (7.6 AY/A) -- but he has had an elite fantasy floor with 24-226-2 rushing since Week 8. For the season, Allen is still the No. 2 quarterback with 25.8 FPPG (per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report). The Lions are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (24.0 FPPG, per our Fantasy Points Allowed Report). For his career, Allen is 20-11-2 ATS on the road (per Action Network).
Geno Smith (SEA) vs. LV: Smith is No. 1 in completion percentage (72.8%) and No. 4 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.149) and AY/A (8.3) - just as we all expected before the season started. Smith is now the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year (-135 at DraftKings). At home in Seattle, Smith is 5-1 ATS and should be rested and ready off the Week 11 bye. Smith has a five-star matchup against the Raiders, who are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.224) and pass DVOA (32.5%, per Football Outsiders).
NFL Week 12 RB Projections
NFL Week 12 RB Notes
Kenneth Walker (SEA) vs. LV: Since No. 1 RB Rashaad Penny (leg, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 5, Walker has gone off with 618 yards and seven touchdowns on 106 carries and 17 targets in six games. Walker should be fresh off the Week 11 bye, and he could see extra carries as a home favorite (-195 at BetRivers). The Raiders are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (24.0 FPPG).
Jeff Wilson (MIA) vs. HOU: In his first two games with the Dolphins, Wilson out-snapped (70 vs. 46), out-opportunitied (34 vs. 23) and out-produced (215 yards, 2 touchdowns vs. 113 yards, 2 touchdowns) once-and-future teammate Raheem Mostert in Weeks 9-10. Wilson should know even more of the playbook out of the Week 11 bye, and he could have a large workload as a massive home favorite (-600 at BetMGM). The Texans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (28.9 FPPG). The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS at home with QB Tua Tagovailoa for his career.
Check out my Week 12 early betting preview on Dolphins vs. Texans.
NFL Week 12 WR Projections
NFL Week 12 WR Notes
Tyreek Hill (MIA) vs. HOU: Hill is No. 1 in the league with 1,148 yards receiving, 81 receptions overall, 47 receptions of 10-plus yards and 20 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Advanced WR Stats Report). He's also No. 1 with a 22% target rate per snap (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). Hill is rightfully the non-quarterback frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year (+250 at FanDuel).
Tee Higgins (CIN) at TEN: Minus the two contests in which he was markedly impacted by injuries (Weeks 1 & 5), Higgins has had 48-685-3 receiving on 69 targets in eight games. No. 1 WR Ja'Marr Chase (hip) has been out since Week 8 and is uncertain to return to action for Week 12. The Titans are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (33.6 FPPG) and are dealing with injuries to CBs Caleb Farley (back, IR), Kristian Fulton (hamstring) and Elijah Molden (groin) and FSs Amani Hooker (shoulder) and Lonnie Johnson (hamstring).
NFL Week 12 TE Projections
NFL Week 12 TE Notes
Travis Kelce (KC) vs. LAR: Kelce is the No. 1 tight end with 18.9 FPPG, well ahead of Mark Andrews at No. 2 (12.2): The edge Kelce provides at the position is monstrous. Kelce is No. 1 at the position with 21 red-zone targets, 34 receptions of 10-plus yards and 14 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). For Kelce, matchup is almost irrelevant.
Foster Moreau (LV) at SEA: In his five games this year without No. 1 TE Darren Waller (hamstring, IR), Moreau has 15-177-1 receiving on 26 targets. The Seahawks are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (16.5 FPPG).
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