Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season, we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points. Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.
Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice
Teams projected for high Week 12 snap counts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While the Buccaneers haven’t been incredibly efficient (41.4 CER), they still are running more plays than almost every other team. The Bucs currently rank third in snaps/60 minutes and seconds/play, and they have a great matchup this week against Cleveland. The Browns’ defense is among the worst in the league, ranking 31st in defensive DVOA and 32nd in EPA/play allowed. Tampa Bay should see their efficiency increase this week and continue to be around the top of the league in plays run.
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is a pace and efficiency match made in heaven. The Chiefs lead the league in CER (98.0) while also ranking sixth in seconds/play and snaps/60 minutes. On the other hand, the visiting Los Angeles Rams are struggling on both sides of the ball. Their offense ranks 30th in CER (8.6), while their defense has regressed to the league average. Things could get even worse as starting QB Matthew Stafford might be dealing with a concussion. If backup QB Bryce Perkins gets the nod on Sunday, expect the Rams’ offense to sputter and the Chiefs to dominate the play count even more than usual.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys’ offense has roared back to life as of late, averaging 35.3 points per game since Dak Prescott returned. They also run one of the faster paces in the league, ranking fourth in seconds/snap. They have a good matchup this week, too, as they take on the New York Giants, owners of the 27th-ranked defense in DVOA. The Cowboys showed their ceiling last week, and I don’t think a similar performance is out of the range of outcomes on Thanksgiving Day.
Teams projected for low Week 12 snap counts
Green Bay Packers
The Packers might have found something with rookie WR Christian Watson, but their team as a whole is still struggling. Their middling 44.5 CER will be tested when they face Philadelphia’s fourth-ranked defense in defensive DVOA and EPA/play allowed. On the other side of the ball, their offense still ranks fourth in CER, even though they’ve had back-to-back underwhelming offensive showings. If the Packers’ offense continues to play as slow as they have, Philadelphia will dominate this contest on all fronts.
Houston Texans
The struggling Texans are staring down a tough matchup against the Miami Dolphins in Week 12. The Dolphins offense is efficient (92.9 CER) but slow (20th in seconds/snap), meaning they’ll look to dominate the time of possession and not give Houston’s offense much time on the field. Houston’s offense likely won’t do much with those sparse opportunities, as evidenced by their league-low 7.8 CER. Expect Houston to continue to run around their season average of 57 snaps/60 minutes.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints have been such a weird team. Even with Andy Dalton starting at QB, they rank 11th in CER. However, this week they are in for a doozy. They will travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers, a nightmare for opposing offenses in terms of pace and efficiency. Similarly to the Dolphins, the 49ers run a slow but efficient offense, a bad combo for opposing offenses. However, unlike the Dolphins, they have an outstanding defense that ranks fifth in EPA/play allowed and seventh in defensive DVOA. Expect the Saints’ offense to see a downtick in efficiency and time spent on the field this Sunday.
*Data from the table comes from as follows: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/minutes-played?date=2022-01-10, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/pace-stats/2021, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-play?date=2022-01-11, https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/
**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.
Noteworthy Trends
- Cleveland's offense has quietly become one of the better ones in the NFL. They currently rank seventh in CER and they certainly have room to grow when Deshaun Watson takes over in Week 13. However, their defense has let the team down and it's resulted in a 3-7 record. It's crazy to think their defense is playing as poorly as it has, given it's filled with stars such as Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward, Jadeveon Clowney, and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. I think this goes to show how important having a filled-out roster is. A "Stars and Scrubs" approach may work in DFS, but it doesn't in the NFL.
- Houston moved into dead last in CER this past week and they control their destiny toward the #1 pick in the 2023 NFL draft. They have some young talent, including Dameon Pierce, Nico Collins, and Jalen Pitre, among others. There's some optimism too if they can draft a franchise QB, given that Davis Mills does not look like the future. Until then, they continue to be the NFL version of the Dunning-Kruger effect: they're always worse than we think they are, no matter how bad they get.
- There seems to be a pretty clear separation at the top of the pace and efficiency table: The Chiefs, the Bills, and the Dolphins. Their respective QBs? Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Tua Tagovailoa. I have been pretty hard on Tua for a long time, but it's beginning to become apartment that he is not bad, nor is he "mid" as the kids say: he's a good QB. He might even be a great one. He currently is first among all QBs in rbsdm's EPA/CPOE composite score. The last five QBs to finish their respective seasons ranked first in that stat? Aaron Rodgers (x2), Lamar Jackson, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady (min 300 plays). Pretty good company. If Tua can keep up his performance, he'll solidify himself as one of the best QBs in the NFL sooner rather than later.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.