Matthew Freedman | Thu, Nov 17th 2022, 3:24pm EST

Fantasy Football Week 11 Player Projections (2022)

In this piece are my personal NFL Week 11 projections for every fantasy- and prop-relevant player (unless I missed one here or there).

This week, I will keep the following schedule for my projections.

Thursday: Do first pass of player projections in the morning and publish.
Saturday & Sunday: Do final update late on Saturday night or early on Sunday morning.

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After my final update, if you want to see an even fresher set of player projections check out our official Week 11 FantasyPros projections, which we use on BettingPros to power our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and Prop Bet Analyzer, both of which are great resources.

While you can use these projections to make fantasy decisions, I recommend you also consult the following.

NFL Week 11 Player Projections

My projections are organized by projected fantasy points. I use the default half-PPR FantasyPros scoring settings. Note that my projected fantasy points do include two-point conversions and fumbles lost (and passing production for Taysom Hill), but I haven’t included those projections in the following tables to save space.

After my positional rankings, I’ve added a few player notes.

Note that my projections differ from my rankings, which are much more intuitive and done by hand. With my rankings, I try to take upside and downside into account. I think about range of outcomes and potential expected value. I’m currently No. 9 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest after finishing No. 14 last year. My projections are largely automated and created with formulas in a spreadsheet. With my projections, I’m trying to forecast only the median.

NFL Week 11 QB Projections

NFL Week 11 QB Notes

Justin Fields (CHI) at ATL: For the second game in a row, Fields lit up our Game Day app in Week 10 with a position-best performance, scoring 40.4 fantasy points on 12-of-20 for 167-2-1 passing and an electric 13-147-2 rushing. After posting horrible passing marks in Weeks 1-3 (15 attempts per game, 3.5 AY/A), Fields has been functional since Week 4 (23.1 attempts, 7.8 AY/A). Fields has elite Konami Code capability, ranking No. 1 among all quarterbacks with 104-749-6 rushing (per our Fantasy Football Stats Report) and No. 2 in carries inside the five-yard line (9, per our Red Zone Stats Report). The Falcons are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (20.5%, per Football Outsiders) and No. 30 in dropback SR (51.6%, per RBs Don't Matter).

Daniel Jones (NYG) vs. DET: In terms of efficiency, Jones is having the best year of his career with a 7.0 AY/A, 65.8% completion rate and 60.2 QBR (per ESPN). He's not Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields, but Jones has a serviceable floor as a runner with a career-high 7.7 carries and 43.0 yards rushing per game. Jones has a five-star matchup against the Lions, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (23.7 FPPG, per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet).

NFL Week 11 RB Projections

NFL Week 11 RB Notes

Saquon Barkley (NYG) vs. DET: In nine games, Barkley has 1,128 yards and six touchdowns, thanks in large part to his position-best playing time (56.2 snaps per game, 83% snap rate, per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). The Giants might have a run-heavy game script as home favorites (-190 at BetMGM ). No biggie, but Barkley at +1600 was my Prop Bet Cheat Sheet: Enjoy that money (he's now a -115 frontrunner at DraftKings ). The Lions are No. 29 in defensive rush EPA per play (0.046).

Christian McCaffrey (SF) vs. ARI (in Mexico): Since McCaffrey became a full-time player for the 49ers in Week 8, they are No. 1 in the league with a 35.2% target share for running backs (per our Targets Distribution Report), and McCaffrey has led the team with 15 targets. The Cardinals are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (28.1%). On top of his receiving production, McCaffrey has 32-132-2 rushing and a 34-yard touchdown pass in his two full games with the 49ers.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) at NYJ: Stevenson disappointed in Weeks 1-2 with 78 scoreless yards - but since Week 3 he has 112-546-4 rushing and 32-221-1 receiving on 39 targets in seven games. Even with RB Damien Harris in Weeks 7-8, Stevenson dominated with 19 and 23 opportunities. Against the Jets in Week 8, Stevenson had 143 yards on 16 carries and seven targets. Stevenson should be fresh off the bye, and the Patriots could rely on the running game as home favorites (-168 at FanDuel). In his 10 career games with 15-plus opportunities, Stevenson has averaged 17.9 FPPG (per FTN). The Jets have a ground-leaning funnel defense that ranks No. 6 against the pass (43.5% SR) but No. 25 against the run (43.9% SR).

David Montgomery (CHI) at Falcons: No. 2 RB Khalil Herbert (hip, IR) exited Week 10 early with an injury and is out for Week 11. Even with QB Justin Fields and Herbert getting carries, Montgomery still has double-digit opportunities in every complete game this year. The Falcons are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (46.1%).

NFL Week 11 WR Projections

NFL Week 11 WR Notes

CeeDee Lamb (DAL) at MIN: Lamb started the season slowly with 104 scoreless yards on nine receptions and one carry in Weeks 1-2, but he has 44-602-5 receiving and 4-6-0 rushing in seven games since then, and for the year he has a dominant 88 targets. Lamb ranks No. 1 at the position with his 32.1% target share (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). Last week, he was the No. 1 wide receiver with 32.5 fantasy points on 11-150-2 receiving and 15 targets. The Vikings are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (36.2 FPPG). Lamb is one of our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) vs. SF (in Mexico): Hopkins has either 98 yards or a touchdown receiving in every game this year and he's No. 1 in the league with 11.5 targets per game (per our Weekly Target Report). The Cardinals could have a pass-heavy game script as large underdogs (+300 at SugarHouse). In his three games with the Cardinals against the 49ers, Hopkins has 28-286-1 receiving on 37 targets.

Terry McLaurin (WAS) at HOU: Since Week 7 - when backup QB Taylor Heinicke took over for injured starter Carson Wentz (pride/finger, IR) - McLaurin has been the best version of himself with 24-370-1 receiving on 36 targets in four games. In Heinicke's 14 full starts last year, McLaurin had 71-940-5 receiving on 119 targets. The Texans are No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA per play (0.129).

Kadarius Toney (KC) at LAC: Toney (28 snaps, 17 routes) played behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling (53, 34) and Justin Watson (46, 29) last week, but he also outproduced them with 4-57-1 receiving and 2-33-0 receiving. With No. 1 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) uncertain for Week 11, Toney might see an expanded role. The Chargers are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (45.1%) and are without No. 1 CB J.C. Jackson (knee, IR).

NFL Week 11 TE Projections

NFL Week 11 TE Notes

Travis Kelce (KC) at LAC: Kelce is the No. 1 tight end with 17.3 FPPG, well ahead of Mark Andrews at No. 2 (12.6): The edge Kelce provides at the position is monstrous. Kelce is No. 1 at the position with 17 red-zone targets, 30 receptions of 10-plus yards and 11 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). Kelce had just 58 scoreless yards against the Chargers in Week 2 - but last year he had 17-295-2 receiving on 24 targets in two games against the division rivals - and this year he has either 90 yards or a touchdown in every game except the one against the Chargers.

Greg Dulcich (DEN) vs. LV: Dulcich has 13-193-1 receiving on 21 targets in four games since making his NFL debut in Week 6, and last week - without WRs Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and K.J. Hamler (hamstring) - Dulcich hit career highs with 71 snaps and 40 routes. Jeudy and Hamler are uncertain for Week 11, so Dulcich could see a boost in target volume. The Raiders are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (12.2 FPPG).

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.

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