Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points. Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.

Teams projected for high Week 11 snap counts 

Philadelphia Eagles

No, the Eagles were not exposed. They got unlucky on a one-game sample size. Philadelphia still owns the fourth-highest CER and leads the NFL in seconds/play. Jalen Hurts and company won’t be met with much resistance from Indianapolis, either. The Colts’ defensive strength lies in their run defense, while the Eagles’ offense excels at both the run and pass game, meaning they can funnel their play calling more toward the pass this week and remain efficient. This week, Philadelphia should get back to their old ways and run plenty of plays.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are often easy to include in this section, and this week is no exception. They battle their division rival, the Kansas City Chiefs, in a contest that is expected to be a shootout (O/U 50 points). I think there will be a plethora of plays run in this contest, as both teams are efficient and fast in pace, but I like the Chargers to edge out the Chiefs in plays. The Chiefs will probably look to attack the Chargers’ poor run defense, slowing the game down for Kansas City. In turn, LA will have to throw the ball a lot and play fast to keep up in a game they are already projected to be behind in (6.5-point underdogs).

Buffalo Bills

Forget about the wins and losses. The Bills remain the most efficient team in the NFL while also ranking fifth in seconds/play. They also draw a favorable matchup against the Cleveland Browns, who rank 31st in defensive DVOA. On the other hand, the Bills still rank first in defensive DVOA and fifth in EPA/play allowed. The Browns’ offense will likely have a hard time getting things off the ground, especially if they struggled to do so against Miami, leaving Buffalo with the opportunity to dominate the play count.

Teams projected for low Week 11 snap counts 

Los Angeles Rams

It feels odd to include the Super Bowl defender and former pace and efficiency king here, but this is where we are. The Rams rank 28th in seconds/snap and are dead last in CER at 3.9. This week, they will travel to New Orleans to face the Saints, a relatively efficient team (57.7 CER) and a slow one (27th in seconds/snap). This game should be a snoozefest, with neither team running an insane amount of plays, but the majority of which should go to the Saints. 

Carolina Panthers

If it feels like I write about Carolina in this section almost every week, it’s because I do. Carolina, through 10 weeks, still runs the fewest snaps/60 minutes in the league and ranks2 7th in CER. On the other hand, their opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, ranks fifth in CER (80.2) and behind the league averages in the respective pace stats. This game profiles with Baltimore running the ball, controlling the clock, and leaving few plays for Carolina to run. 

Tennessee Titans

Tennesse proved on Sunday why they belong in this section. They won at home against a pitiful Broncos offense and yet only ran 60 plays. I think it’s quite possible they will run even fewer than 60 plays this Thursday when they play the Packers. Green Bay doesn’t have as good a defense as Denver, but they have a much better offense (55.1 CER vs. 11.8). Tennessee still ranks dead last in seconds/play and 31st in snaps/60 minutes, so I see no way they run a significant amount of plays in this game.

*Data from the table comes from as follows: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/minutes-played?date=2022-01-10, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/pace-stats/2021, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-play?date=2022-01-11, https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/

**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.

 Noteworthy Trends

• For the first time this season, the Chicago Bears have eclipsed the 50th percentile of efficiency. As a lifelong Chicago Bear fan, I never thought I would live to see the day when we had an explosive offense. Since Week 7, the Bears rank seventh in EPA/play and have averaged 31 points per game. The arrow is certainly pointing up for the Bears faithful, and it’s scary to imagine what this team could do with more than about seven NFL-caliber players on their roster.
• The Commanders continue to defy the conventional wisdom that teams with poor pace and efficiency don’t run many plays. Until Monday night, their plays/60 minutes were trending down, but an 81-play game shot that average back up. I’m not even sure how valuable these plays are if their CER stays around 11.5, but the point remains that they are an outlier. I’ll be curious to see where these numbers end up at the end of the season, but for now, they make no sense.
• Jacksonville’s offense continues to impress in the spreadsheets, although their record currently sits at 3-7. The Jags rank seventh in CER and run the 12th most plays/60 minutes. Their defense has been the culprit of the disappointing record, ranking 27th in defensive DVOA. The concern is that they currently have seven defensive players with a cap hit larger than $10M in 2023, of which just two are names that I recognize as “good” players. The Jaguars project to have -$23,239,702 in cap space heading into the offseason, an unwelcome sign if they continue to not play well.

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