Week 10 Quick Grades (2022 Fantasy Football Start or Sit Advice)

Welcome to Week 10, friends. As always, we’re here to provide you with some fantasy football Quick Grades (or Start/Sit Grades, if you prefer) for the week.

We tapped into our consensus projections and rankings and Derek Brown’s weekly Primer to generate this week’s Quick Grades. See below for the results and accompanying notes.

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Week 10 QB Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Geno Smith: Smith keeps chugging along, defying the odds weekly. He’s the QB9 in fantasy points per game with scintillating deeper metrics. Smith is the fourth-highest graded passer per PFF, ranking fourth in passing touchdowns, fourth in big-time throw rate, and seventh in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Smith remains a low-end QB1 despite the tough assignment with Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have given up the eighth-highest passing touchdown rate but have shut down passing offenses outside of this. Tampa Bay has yielded the third-lowest yards per attempt, fourth-lowest success rate per drop back, and sixth-lowest EPA per dropback.

Tom Brady: We keep waiting for this Buccaneers’ passing offense to bounce back, but week after week, they keep falling on their collective faces. Brady is the QB22 in fantasy points per game, although his efficiency metrics look like a quarterback that should reside inside the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks. Brady is eighth in PFF passing grade and tenth in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Seattle is surrendering the 12th-highest yards per attempt and 11th-highest passing touchdown rate overall this season, but they have tightened up the belt recently. Over their last three games, the Seahawks have held quarterbacks to the eighth-lowest passer rating, 14th-lowest completion rate, and the third-fewest yards per attempt. Brady is a QB2.

Russell Wilson: Since Week 4, Wilson has shown some life in fantasy circles as the QB15 in fantasy points per game. In his last four games, he’s still 26th in PFF passing grade but 12th in yards per attempt and 11th in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). The Titans are an easy secondary to shred, ranking seventh in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, 12th in yards per attempt, and tenth in passing touchdown rate. The Titans are 11th in pressure rate, which could present a problem, but Wilson has been elite against pressure since Week 4. Over the last five weeks, he’s 11th in PFF pressured passing grade, fourth in pressure-adjusted completion rate, and first in pressured yards per attempt (minimum 25 pressured dropbacks). Wilson is a borderline QB1 this week.

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has been on a roll with three top-12 finishes (QB4, QB8, QB12) in his last four games. Since Week 5, he’s started to use his legs, averaging 4.6 carries and 24.6 rushing yards with three rushing scores. The passing volume has risen recently, and Lawrence has had two outings since Week 5 with at least 40 passing attempts and 280 or more passing yards. The problem is Lawrence hasn’t been able to add on the passing scores, as he hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns since Week 4. Lawrence is a borderline QB1 this week in a fantastic scoring environment. Kansas City has been very average as a pass defense, ranking 14th in success rate per dropback, 14th in EPA per drop back, and 15th in yards per attempt. The Chiefs’ inability to stop passers from scoring offers Lawrence a ceiling, as they have given up the third-highest passing touchdown rate this season. Kansas City has also been happy to allow playmakers to break off big gains in the open field, ranking 28th in DVOA against short passing, seventh in YAC, and fourth in missed tackles allowed.

Daniel Jones: Jones is the QB14 in fantasy points per game and a QB2 with QB1 upside this week. Jones is tenth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks) and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. Much of his fantasy success has been related to his rushing production. Jones is fourth in rushing yards per game and fifth in red zone carries per game. Houston is 19th in passing yards per game, 23rd in EPA per drop back, and 29th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Andy Dalton: Since Week 5, the Steelers have been a quarterback’s dream. They are 31st in passing yards per game, 31st in EPA per drop back, and 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed. Even after Dalton’s dreadful performance last week, he’s fifth in PFF passing grade, 15th in yards per attempt, and 12th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Dalton has only gone deep on 9.8% (25th) of his dropbacks, but we could see him uncork some deep balls this week. Pittsburgh is 12th in deep completion rate with the most deep passing touchdowns allowed.  This assumes his offensive line, which will be without center Erik McCoy and guard Andrus Peat, can keep him upright. Dalton is a QB2 with a quietly high ceiling.

Kenny Pickett: Pickett has been dreadful since assuming the steel curtain throne. Pickett is 33rd in PFF passing grade, 38th in big-time throw rate, and 41st in yards per attempt with a 2:8 passing touchdown to interception ratio. In his first five games of NFL action, he was fed to the wolves facing off against NYJ, BUF, TB, and PHI. The Saints aren’t pushovers, but they offer a little leeway to see what Pickett can do. Since Week 5, New Orleans is 14th in passing yards per game, 22nd in EPA per drop back, and 13th in explosive pass rate allowed. The biggest plus for Pickett is that he should enjoy some clean pockets, as the Saints are 28th in pressure rate. Pickett is a low-end QB2.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Week 10 WR Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Amon-Ra St. Brown: In the five games St. Brown has played full-time snaps, he’s seen a 30.5% target share (10.2 targets per game) with 25.7% of the air yards and 2.36 yards per route run. In that five-game sample, St. Brown has been a WR1 twice and a top 36 wide receiver in every game. St. Brown has scored three touchdowns this season, but he hasn’t sniffed a red zone target since Week 5 and hasn’t gotten in the endzone since Week 2. St. Brown is due for a blowup game. St. Brown is a WR1 who will run about 58% of his routes against Kyler Gordon (79.6% catch rate, 113.8 passer rating).

Darnell Mooney: Since Week 4, Mooney has come alive as this passing game has trended upward. Over the last six games, he’s commanded a 28.6% target share (seven targets per game) with 38.7% of the team’s air yards. Over that span, Mooney has been 23rd in PFF receiving grade and 18th in yards per route run as the WR23 in fantasy. Mooney will run about 62% of his routes against Will Harris (68.4% catch rate, 88.9 passer rating). The Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to slot receivers this season. Mooney is a WR2/3.

Chase Claypool: In Claypool’s first game as a Bear, he saw a 17.6% target share with a 7.7 aDOT and a 42.1% route run rate. Claypool ran 88.2% of his routes on the perimeter with a deep target. Claypool is a WR4/5 that will run most of his routes against Detroit’s outside trio of Jeffrey Okudah (73.7% catch rate, 116.2 passer rating), Mike Hughes (73.1% catch rate, 118.1 passer rating), and Jerry Jacobs (2021: 64.3% catch rate, 98.0 passer rating).

Christian Kirk: Kirk has rebounded from a mid-season skid with top 20 weeks in two of his last three games (WR15, WR5). Overall, Kirk is the WR19 in fantasy with a 23.7% target share (25th) and 27.3% of the team’s air yards (31st). He’s been heavily featured in the red zone with 11 targets (seventh). Kirk is 29th in PFF receiving grade and 27th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’ll run about 74% of his routes from the slot against L’Jarius Sneed (70% catch rate, 99.3 passer rating). The Chiefs have surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to slot receivers this year. Kirk is a high-end WR2 in a wonderful scoring environment.

Chris Olave: Olave has hit the ground running in his rookie season with little hesitation in stepping up as the top receiver in the Saints passing attack. Olave is the WR16 in fantasy with a 27.0% target share (15th) and 41.4% air yard share (fourth). He leads wide receivers in deep targets with 19 while also factoring into the red zone (nine red zone targets). Olave is seventh in PFF receiving grade and ninth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). The Saints get clowned for their draft day trades, but so far, Olave has arguably been worth paying up “to get your guy” in the draft. In Week 8, the Steelers, who have utilized man coverage a fair amount this season, deployed their outside corners in man coverage on 58-61% of their snaps. While Olave has cut through zone coverage this season like butter, he’s been equally impressive against man. Olave is ninth in PFF receiving grade against man while also ranking 21st in yards per route run immediately ahead of Jaylen Waddle (minimum ten man coverage targets). Olave will run about 72% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (58.6% catch rate, 86.6 passer rating) and James Pierre (50% catch rate, 60.4 passer rating). Olave is a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.

George Pickens: With Pickett under center, Pickens has thrived. In Weeks 5-7 before getting shut down by the Eagles, Pickens had a 13.9% target share and 18.6% air yard share with 1.44 yards per route run. In two of those three games, Pickens finished as a top-24 wide receiver (WR12, WR21). Pickens is eighth among wide receivers in deep targets. New Orleans is second in deep passing touchdowns allowed this season. Pickens will run about 52% of his routes against Paulson Adebo (76.9% catch rate, 143.2 passer rating). Pickens is headed for a big day as a WR3 with top-20 upside this week.

Week 10 RB Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor has practiced in full in back-to-back days and doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game. Taylor has averaged 20..5 touches, and 88.8 total yards this season. With questionable play-callers at the controls, Taylor could be leaned on heavily this week. It’s difficult to fumble the concept of running the ball and playing defense as an unsexy way of gutting out a win in Jeff Saturday’s debut. Since Week 6, the Raiders defense has relented some, ranking 19th in rushing yards per game and 20th in explosive run rate allowed. Taylor could be the every-down bell cow with Nyheim Hines gone and Deon Jackson out. Taylor has three games with five or more targets this season. Those checkdowns will come in handy against a Raiders defense that’s 32nd in DVOA, allowing the fifth-most receptions and sixth-highest yards per reception to running backs. Taylor is an RB1.

Aaron Jones: Jones managed limited practices all week and doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game. Does that mean he’s 100%? No. Is it encouraging? Sure. Jones should be the lead back in this offense if health complies this week. In Weeks 7-8, playing full-time after retaking the lead role, Jones averaged 20.5 touches and 116.5 total yards. Jones is seventh in yards per touch, 13th in juke rate, eighth in evaded tackles, and 12th in breakaway run rate. He’s still insanely efficient and explosive this season. Jones encounters a Cowboy run defense that’s 20th in rushing yards per game and explosive run rate (since Week 5). What could hinder Jones this week is Dallas’ stingy nature with touchdowns. They have allowed the third-fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. Jones is a top-15 running back.

A.J. Dillon: Dillon’s disappointing season rolls on. He’s the RB46 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 7-8, he averaged 7.5 touches, 39 total yards, and 36% of the snaps played. Over the last five games, Dillon has had one touch in the red zone. He’s 17th in juke rate and 16th in evaded tackles, but he’s also 47th in yards per touch and breakaway run rate. Dillon is an RB3/4.

Devin Singletary: Last week was business as usual for Singletary. He played 74% of the snaps leading the team in rushing attempts, target share, route run rate, and red zone chances. Singletary finished the day with 12 touches and 48 total yards. The bigger question is how much does Hines factor in this week with more time to digest the playbook? This renders Singletary no more than a low-end RB3. Singletary is the RB29 in fantasy points per game, averaging 13.3 touches and 69.3 total yards. With only one touchdown this season and 16 red zone touches (29th), his pass-game role has kept him afloat. Singletary is 13th in target share (12.7%), ranking tenth in receptions and receiving yards among running backs. The main bloodline to his value is what Hines threatens. Since Week 5, the Vikings have been an impenetrable wall ranking third in rushing yards per game, third in EPA per rush, and first in explosive run rate allowed.

Jeff Wilson: It took only one game for El Jefe to supplant Raheem Mostert as the Dolphins’ lead back. Wilson equaled Mostert in early down work while running one more route and handling most of the red zone work. Wilson played 49% of the snaps with 12 touches and 72 total yards as the RB8. Wilson is 27th in evaded tackles, eighth in breakaway run rate, and 12th in yards per touch. The Browns remain a basement-level run defense. Since Week 4, they are 26th in rushing yards per game, 32nd in EPA per rush, and 27th in explosive run rate allowed. Cleveland is 27th in adjusted line yards and 27th in open field yards. Wilson is an RB2.

Raheem Mostert: Mostert is a high-end RB3. Mostert can take advantage of the same juicy matchup like Wilson, but losing priority in the red zone bumps him down a peg. Mostert is the RB37 in fantasy, ranking 28th in evaded tackles, 26th in breakaway run rate, and 31st in yards per touch. He’s a good bet for 10-15 touches this week, and if he gets into the endzone, he’ll likely outperform my ranking and land inside the top 24 running backs for the week.

James Conner: Conner returned to his lead-back role playing 71% of the snaps with 12 touches and 64 total yards. He handled most of the passing down work and saw the only running back red zone opportunity. Conner looked spry with the highest yards after contact per attempt (4.43) he’s managed in any game this season and two runs of 10-plus yards. Conner is an RB2 in a difficult matchup. Since Week 4, the Rams are fifth in rushing yards per game, fifth in EPA per rush, and sixth in explosive run rate allowed. Conner will have to get it done in the touchdown department and in the passing game to overcome what will likely be an inefficient outing. The Rams have surrendered the 12th-highest yards per reception and 12-most receptions to running backs. 

Week 10 TE Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Noah Fant: It finally happened. Fant distanced himself handily from Will Dissly in Week 9. Fant saw an 18.8% target share (Dissly, 12.5%) with a 63.2% route run rate (Dissly, 36.8%). Overall, Fant has a 12.4% target share with four red zone targets and one deep look. The Buccaneers are a streamer-worthy matchup for Fant that could land him inside the top-12 tight ends for the week. Tampa Bay has surrendered the seventh-highest catch rate and ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends. The Bucs have also yielded the second-most fantasy points to tight ends from the slot. Last week Fant ran a season-high 50% of his routes from the slot.

T.J. Hockenson: Well, Minnesota was telling the truth about Hockenson playing a major role from the jump. In his first game with the Vikings, he played 91% of the snaps drawing a 23.1% target share with nine receptions and 70 receiving yards (1.94 yards per route run). Hockenson also drew three red zone targets and finished as the TE5 in Week 9. Buffalo has been rough on tight ends, ranking third in DVOA with the fourth-lowest yards per reception and zero touchdowns allowed. Only the Bills and Jets remain the only teams yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end. Hockenson is a TE1 based on volume alone.

Dawson Knox: Last week was only the second time this season Knox has eclipsed a 70% route run rate. Overall, Knox has a 10.9% target share while seeing four red zone targets. Three of his red zone looks have come in the last four games. Knox is on the matchup-based streamer radar with the route rate trending up and his red zone usage having a pulse. The Vikings are 22nd in DVOA against tight ends allowing the eighth-highest catch rate, tenth-highest yards per reception, and the ninth-most receiving touchdowns (tied).

Cole Kmet: A rising tide raises all boats. Hello Cole Kmet. Welcome to the 2022 fantasy season. Last week Kmet secured five of his six targets with 41 receiving yards and a pair of scores as the TE2 for the week. That was Kmet’s first top-12 finish of the season. Kmet is 30th in PFF receiving grade, 36th in yards per route run, and 14th in red zone targets (five). Kmet is a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 this week. Detroit is a wonderful matchup for him to stack back-to-back solid fantasy games. The Lions are 24th in DVOA, giving up the third-highest catch rate, ninth-highest yards per reception, and fourth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

Greg Dulcich: Since Dulcich graced the Broncos’ starting lineup in Week 6, he has finished as the TE11, TE7, and TE9 in weekly scoring. He has garnered a 17.7% target share (11th-best) with a 75% route participation clip (11th-best). With only three games played, he is fifth in deep targets (five) at the position. Dulcich should be viewed as a weekly TE1 moving forward. This week he gets another plus matchup against a defense that’s allowed the fourth-most receiving yards and fifth-highest yards per reception to tight ends.

Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth is the TE8 this season with a beautiful 18.7% target share (ninth) and 18.9% air yard share (fifth). He’s 12th in receptions and seventh in receiving yards with eight deep targets (second-most). Freiermuth is a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 this week. Isaiah Likely found out last week that the Saints remain a brutal matchup for tight ends. They are first in DVOA with the lowest catch rate, ninth-lowest yards per reception, and only one receiving touchdown allowed. Likely’s score last week was the only one they’ve given up.

Week 10 D/ST Start/Sit Grades

Week 10 K Start/Sit Grades