Fitz’s Week 10 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2022 Fantasy Football)

Fitz’s Week 10 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2022 Fantasy Football)

It’s amusing how certain we are about depth charts and player roles every August when we’re drafting our teams. And then, of course, by Week 10 or so, the chessboard looks completely different. (“Hey, how the heck did my bishop get over there?”)

Chase Edmonds was going to be the Dolphins’ lead RB — a fine value in the so-called “RB dead zone.” Er, wait … it wasn’t really Edmonds’ backfield after all. Raheem Mostert was the guy all along. Gah! We should have known. Mostert was always good when healthy in San Francisco, and he knew Mike McDaniel’s system, so …

Hold on. Jeff Wilson is the guy now? The dude Miami traded for a week ago?

This stuff will make your head spin, friends.

And the Miami backfield isn’t the only place where we’re seeing noteworthy shifts in usage. The roles, they are a-changin’.

As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases — including some of those usage shifts.

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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice

QUARTERBACKS

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The status of Josh Allen‘s elbow has enormous fantasy implications for Week 10 and beyond. Allen is reportedly dealing with an injury to the ulnar collateral ligament on his throwing elbow. As of now, I’ve left him in the rankings at QB3, but the betting markets seem to think Allen will sit this week. (The Bills opened as an 8.5-point favorite against the Vikings, and Buffalo was only a 3.5-point favorite as of Thursday night.) If Allen is out, Case Keenum will get the start for Buffalo. He’s a competent backup (and an ex-Viking — revenge game!). If Allen is out, I’ll slot in Keenum at QB22, in between Jacoby Brissett and Kenny Pickett.

No need to spend much time on Justin Fields since he’s squarely in must-start territory. He’s joined the Lamar Jackson/Justin Fields class of lethal running QBs, and while the Bears are never going to be confused with the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams of the late 1990s and early 2000s, Chicago’s passing volume has at least inched up toward acceptable modern-NFL levels. The only concern with Fields is that the rushing yardage might not be there in any given week — but that’s probably not a concern this week against a porous Detroit defense.

Justin Herbert has thrown only four TD passes in his last four games, and he’s topped 245 passing yards just once during that stretch. Part of the problem is that he’s been without his top two wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and that’s probably going to be the case again in Week 10 (though Allen hadn’t been ruled out yet as of Thursday). This week, Herbert is up against a 49ers defense that has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs and has generated the fifth-highest pressure rate. I have Herbert ranked QB10, and honestly, that feels a little too high.

Some of you might know I consider Kirk Cousins to be an average starting QB masquerading as an above-average starting QB. But I don’t hate Cousins as a fantasy option this week even though he’s on the road vs. a Buffalo defense that has given up the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Cousins hasn’t posted a weekly fantasy finish worse than QB13 since Week 4, so his floor is stable, and the addition of T.J. Hockenson might be more beneficial to Cousins than I first realized. (Hockenson had 9-70-0 last week in his Vikings debut.)

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RUNNING BACKS

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D’Andre Swift played 10 snaps for the Lions last week and still finished with 50 yards from scrimmage (2-10-0 rushing, 3-40-0 receiving) against the Packers. Per Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson acknowledged that Swift was “pissed off a little bit” with his Week 9 usage. Might we see Swift get the squeaky-wheel treatment? If the Lions are confident that the shoulder and ankle injuries he’s been nursing aren’t a factor, Swift could potentially see something close to a normal workload — and we know that a normal workload for Swift often produces RB1 value or something close to it. I currently have Williams ranked RB17 and Swift RB22, and I’ll probably be second-guessing those rankings right up to the Lions’ kickoff against the Bears on Sunday.

If Ezekiel Elliott (knee) is active this week — and practice reports suggest he will be — you should probably have him in your lineup. He faces a Packers defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards to RBs and the fourth-most rushing attempts to RBs (24 per game). Packers LB Rashaan Gary tore his ACL last week, and run-stopping LB De’Vondre Campbell (knee) is questionable after missing Week 9. ( I still have Tony Pollard ranked ahead of Zeke.)

If Bills QB Josh Allen misses Week 10, it could mean at least an incremental value boost for Devin Singletary, since the Bills would probably be run-heavier without Allen, and Case Keenum wouldn’t be nearly as big a threat to vulture short-range TD runs as Allen is.

In a surprise development, Jeff Wilson played one more snap and had one more touch than Raheem Mostert last week despite joining the Dolphins just five days before their Week 9 game against the Bears. Maybe Wilson’s usage shouldn’t have been a surprise. Wilson is familiar with Mike McDaniel’s system from their time together in San Francisco, and the Dolphins couldn’t keep using the 30-year-old, oft-injured Raheem Mostert in a workhorse role. I still have Mostert ranked slightly ahead of Wilson this week, but it’s possible Wilson will be the more valuable Miami RB this week and the rest of the season.

Just when it seemed as if Khalil Herbert was making headway in the Chicago backfield, he was out-snapped 52-21 by David Montgomery last week against the Dolphins and out-touched 15-7. The toolsy Herbert could certainly cash in on a scrumptious Week 10 matchup against the Lions, but his floor is nail-bitingly low.

According to an NFL.com story, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin had this to say when asked if he would consider giving Jaylen Warren a featured role: “You know he’s a quality back that’s made some plays. We’ll keep giving him an opportunity to do so, and maybe he’ll write that script.” Warren has looked better than Najee Harris for much of the season and makes an interesting flex-type dart throw this week against a Saints defense that allowed 93 rushing yards and two TDs to Ravens RB Kenyan Drake on Monday night

Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a season-low 17% snap share in Week 9 and a season-low four carries. CEH has had double-digit carries only once all season, and he’s seen just three targets in the least three weeks. Edwards-Helaire has been using touchdown deodorant to make himself presentable all season. But with his touch volume cratering, CEH’s point total is probably going to have a pungent aroma if he doesn’t find his way into the end zone.

WIDE RECEIVERS

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Let’s talk about the outlook for the Bills’ receivers with or without Josh Allen at quarterback. If Allen’s UCL injury keeps him out, the Bills at least have a competent backup in Case Keenum. The well-traveled Keenum is a spare tire: You’ll be fine with him in the short term if you’re just running errands around town, but you don’t want to make any long-distance, out-of-state trips with him. You’re starting Stefon Diggs no matter what. But Gabe Davis, a volatile, boom/bust asset even with Allen at QB, becomes a much riskier fantasy option with Keenum running the offense. I have Davis ranked WR25 based on the assumption of a slightly diminished Allen making the start. If Keenum starts, I’ll have Davis ranked as a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 — somewhere in Donovan Peoples-Jones‘ neighborhood. Isaiah McKenzie is a desperation flex option with Allen at quarterback and unplayable with Keenum.

Speaking of QB injuries, Matthew Stafford was placed in the concussion protocol on Wednesday, and it seems no better than 50/50 that he’ll be cleared in time to face the Cardinals on Sunday. You’re starting Cooper Kupp even if backup John Wolford has to play in Stafford’s stead, but Allen Robinson would go from borderline-usable WR4 to off the map.

I’m higher than consensus on Darnell Mooney this week. He’s seen 31 targets in his last four games, and passing volume has been up for the Bears lately after they tried to play caveman football in the season’s opening weeks. Mooney probably isn’t going to see the Lions’ best cornerback, Jeff Okudah, very often, and all of Detroit’s other corners are exploitable.

You’re probably compelled to play Terry McLaurin unless you’re in a 10-team league, but I’m not optimistic about his prospects this week in a skull-and-crossbones matchup against the Eagles and their superb outside CB duo of Darius Slay and James Bradberry. McLaurin figures to see a lot of Bradbury, who has the 24th-highest grade among the 113 cornerbacks PFF has graded.

Over the Broncos’ last three games, Jerry Jeudy has had 16-213-1 on 25 targets, and Courtland Sutton had had 6-50-0 on 16 targets. It’s probably premature to declare Jeudy the alpha receiver in Denver. Let’s not forget that Sutton was the WR14 in fantasy scoring through the first five weeks of the season. I have Jeudy ranked WR29 this week, Sutton WR32.

In QB Sam Ehlinger‘s two starts for the Colts, Michael Pittman has produced 10-75-0 on 15 targets. The target count isn’t bad, but 5.0 yards per target is suboptimal. Pittman has a nice matchup this week against an exploitable Raiders secondary, although Ehlinger might not be capable of helping Pittman exploit it. I have Pittman ranked WR30, and I’m sure he’s going to pose a great many start/sit dilemmas for his investors this week.

With Chase Claypool out of the picture, it’s wheels up for George Pickens, who’s flashed star potential over the first half of his rookie season and now has an enhanced target outlook with one fewer pass catcher vying for targets in Pittsburgh. After being shut out by the Eagles in Week 8 prior to the Steelers’ Week 9 bye, Pickens could erupt this week against a Saints defense likely to be without ace CB Marshon Lattimore (abdomen).

It looks as if Brandin Cooks will be back this week after his brief estrangement from the Texans. Cooks was reportedly unhappy about not being dealt to another team at the trade deadline. Is Cooks worth playing this week? Meh. He’s WR39 in this week’s rankings, and I’d be reluctant to use him in a road game against a Giants defense that’s giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers.

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TIGHT ENDS

Check out Fitz’s tight end rankings here partner-arrow

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As noted earlier, T.J. Hockenson had nine receptions for 70 yards in his first game wearing Minnesota purple. Hockenson has a Week 10 matchup against a Bills defense that’s been somewhat stingy toward opposing TEs (7.1 fantasy points per game), but the fact that Hock was so involved just days after being traded is a splendid omen.

In his first three NFL games, Greg Dulcich has averaged 4.0 receptions and 60.7 yards. What’s nice is that Dulcich is operating deeper downfield than most tight ends do. The rookie’s average depth of target is 13.2 yards. For sake of comparison, Travis Kelce‘s average depth of target this year is 7.4 yards. Start Dulcich with confidence against a Titans defense giving up 11.9 half-PPR fantasy points per game to TEs.

Mea culpa: I told people to start Taysom Hill last week, and he tanked. Nothing worked offensively for the Saints against the Ravens on Monday night. Nevertheless, I still think Hill is good (albeit volatile) fantasy option this week against the Steelers. With backup RB Mark Ingram out for multiple weeks, the Saints need someone to help Alvin Kamara with the rushing load, and I think Hill is a better candidate to do that than RB Dwayne Washington is.

A lot of people think Chase Claypool‘s departure from the Steelers bodes well for Pat Freiermuth. I don’t disagree, but I consider Freiermuth a low-end TE1 this week against the Saints, who are giving up a league-low 3.9 fantasy points per game to TEs.

With TE Darren Waller and short-area WR Hunter Renfrow landing on IR for the Raiders on Thursday, I have Foster Moreau ranked as a top-10 TE this week against the Colts.

Over his last three games, Tyler Higbee has 3-22-0 on seven targets. As if the trend isn’t bad enough for Higbee, the Rams could be without QB Matthew Stafford (concussion) this week. A TE13 ranking reflects my lack of enthusiasm for Higbee, and that ranking will tumble further if Stafford is out.

I want to like Cade Otton more this week. The rookie has looked good this season, he’s topped 60 yards in two of his last three games, and he has a peach of a matchup against a Seattle defense that’s been getting trampled by tight ends all season. But it appears that Cameron Brate will return from a neck injury this week, so Otton’s snap/target outlook gets murkier. I’m ranking Otton and Brate side by side as midrange TE2s.

Cole Kmet has scored three touchdowns over the last two weeks, but he still hasn’t topped 45 yards in a game this season. Be careful about chasing last week’s points. Even in a favorable matchup against the Lions, Kmet is only the TE16 in this week’s rankings.

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Pat Fitzmaurice is the managing editor and a fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.

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