Matthew Freedman | Thu, Nov 10th 2022, 3:15pm EST

Fantasy Football Week 10 Player Projections (2022)

In this piece are my personal NFL Week 10 projections for every fantasy- and prop-relevant player (unless I missed one here or there).

This week, I will keep the following schedule for my projections.

Thursday: Do first pass of player projections in the morning and publish.
Saturday & Sunday: Do final update late on Saturday night or early on Sunday morning.

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After my final update, if you want to see an even fresher set of player projections check out our official Week 10 FantasyPros projections, which we use on BettingPros to power our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and Prop Bet Analyzer, both of which are great resources.

While you can use these projections to make fantasy decisions, I recommend you also consult the following.

NFL Week 10 Player Projections

My projections are organized by projected fantasy points. I use the default half-PPR FantasyPros scoring settings. Note that my projected fantasy points do include two-point conversions and fumbles lost (and passing production for Taysom Hill), but I haven’t included those projections in the following tables to save space.

After my positional rankings, I’ve added a few player notes.

Note that my projections differ from my rankings, which are much more intuitive and done by hand. With my rankings, I try to take upside and downside into account. I think about range of outcomes and potential expected value. I’m currently No. 9 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest after finishing No. 14 last year. My projections are largely automated and created with formulas in a spreadsheet. With my projections, I’m trying to forecast only the median.

NFL Week 10 QB Projections

NFL Week 10 QB Notes

Josh Allen (BUF) vs. MIN: Right now, I'm tentatively projecting him to play but to be a little less than his full self. That said, I'm increasingly skeptical that he'll actually suit up.

Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. WAS: Hurts has steadily progressed as a passer throughout his career and now ranks No. 2 in AY/A (9.2) and No. 5 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.140, per RBs Don't Matter). Hurts has an incredibly high Konami Code floor, given that he's No. 1 at the position in carries inside the five-yard line (12, per our Red Zone Stats Report) and No. 2 in total carries (88, per our Fantasy Football Stats Report). The Commanders have a funnel defense that ranks No. 2 against the run (-22.9% DVOA) but No. 25 against the pass (13.6% DVOA, per Football Outsiders). Against the Commanders in Week 3, Hurts was the No. 2 fantasy quarterback with 22-of-35 for 340-3-0 passing and 9-20-0 rushing. HC Nick Sirianni is 6-0-1 ATS as a home favorite (per Action Network).

Check out my Week 10 early betting breakdown on Eagles vs. Commanders.

Marcus Mariota (ATL) at CAR: Mariota isn't exciting, but he's top-12 in AY/A (7.4), ESPN's QBR (59.7) and EPA + CPOE (0.094) and No. 6 at the position in carries (60). Against the Panthers in Week 8, Mariota was the No. 6 fantasy quarterback with 20-of-28 for 253-3-2 passing and 6-43-0 rushing. The Panthers are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA (18.8%).

NFL Week 10 RB Projections

NFL Week 10 RB Notes

Saquon Barkley (NYG) vs. HOU: In eight games, Barkley has 968 yards and five touchdowns, thanks in large part to his position-best playing time (56.4 snaps per game, 84% snap rate, per our Snap Count Leaders Report). Coming off the Week 9 bye, Barkley should be rested and ready for a large workload. The Giants might have a run-heavy game script as large home favorites (-295 at DraftKings). The Texans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (30.9 FPPG).

Travis Etienne (JAX) at KC: Ever since Week 7, when the Jaguars de facto sidelined No. 2 RB James Robinson (whom they traded in Week 8), Etienne has 407 yards and four touchdowns (with a two-point conversion) on 66 carries and 10 targets in three games. In that span, Etienne is the No. 4 fantasy back (22.6 FPPG, per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report). Etienne is No. 1 among all backs with 75-plus carries with 1.31 rushing yards over expected (per the RYOE app). The Jaguars are likely to trail - but they trailed the Raiders last week by as many as 17 points, and they still managed to give Etienne 30 opportunities.

Jamaal Williams (DET) at CHI: No. 1 RB D'Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle) is dealing with injuries and has seen limited action (seven carries, nine targets) since returning to action in Week 8. Last week, Williams had season-high marks in carries (24) and snap rate (61%), and he has had 13-plus opportunities in every game this year. Williams has four games with multiple touchdowns and is No. 2 in the league - behind only Joe Mixon - with 14 carries inside the five-yard line. The Bears are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (24.6 FPPG).

NFL Week 10 WR Projections

NFL Week 10 WR Notes

Tyreek Hill (MIA) vs. CLE: Hill is No. 1 in the league with 1,104 yards receiving, 76 receptions overall, 45 receptions of 10-plus yards and 19 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). He's also No. 1 with a 23% target rate per snap (Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). Hill is rightfully the non-quarterback frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year (+350 at BetMGM ).

Mike Evans (TB) vs. SEA (in Munich): Since returning from his Week 3 suspension, Evans has 36-485-2 receiving on 59 targets in six games - even with all the struggles the Buccaneers have had on offense while going 2-4. The Seahawks are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (24.4%).

Amari Cooper (CLE) at MIA: Cooper had 5-131-1 receiving on seven targets without TE David Njoku (ankle) in Week 8, and Njoku is uncertain to play coming out of the bye. A boom/bust receiver, Copper has been a fantasy WR1 in half his games this year. The Dolphins defense is No. 29 in dropback EPA per play (0.152).

Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG) vs. HOU: No. 1 WR Kadarius Toney (traded) is gone, No. 2 WR Kenny Golladay (knee) last played in Week 4, No. 3 WR Sterling Shepard (knee, IR) is out and No. 1 TE Daniel Bellinger (eye) is dealing with a serious injury: In their absence, Robinson has a shot to be the de facto No. 1 wide receiver. Robinson has had a nice career-high 69% snap rate in each of his past two games, and he might be in line for a post-bye bump. The Texans are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (25.6%).

I'm betting over 8.5 points for Robinson in the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

NFL Week 10 TE Projections

NFL Week 10 TE Notes

Travis Kelce (KC) vs. JAX: Kelce has either 90 yards or a touchdown in every game but one. The Chiefs have a week-high 30-point implied total in our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. The Jaguars are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (31.5%): May the football gods have mercy upon them.

Check out our DFS lineup optimizer, which is just one of our many FantasyPros DFS tools.

Cole Kmet (CHI) vs. DET: Relative to Weeks 1-3, Kmet has seen roughly double the per-game usage (3.5 targets vs. 1.7) and production (26.7 yards, 0.5 touchdowns vs. 13.3 yards, zero touchdowns) in Weeks 4-9 as the Bears offense has improved. The Lions are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (12.8 FPPG).

Noah Fant (SEA) vs. TB (in Munich): In Weeks 1-4, Fant was in a pure committee with teammates Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson, but since Week 5 he has distinguished himself with 9.4 yards per target on a 15.9% target share (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). The Buccaneers are without S Logan Ryan (foot, IR) and might be without S Antoine Winfield (concussion).

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.

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