This is one of only two weeks this season with six teams on bye (the other being Week 14). Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and the Giants are all out. Denver, Pittsburgh and to a lesser extent New York are good targets for streaming defenses, so that’s three fewer teams in good matchups. To add to the problem, Dallas and San Francisco are both top-tier defenses that are likely rostered by teams that are starting every week. That means you’ll probably have two more teams than usual competing on the waiver wire. If you’re living the streaming life, it’s more important than ever to get waiver claims in to defenses on Tuesday.
The league’s quarterback situations have been relatively stable, though we didn’t quite get the elusive “every team plays the same QB in back-to-back weeks” last week. Here are the updates:
- Titans QB Ryan Tannehill missed last week with an illness, and and ankle injury he sustained in Week 7. We won’t know until later in the week if he’ll be ready for Week 9, but my current expectation is that he will play. If he doesn’t, we’ll see Malik Willis again, who had his first career start last week. The Chiefs are a very good start this week either way, but probably better if we see Willis again.
- At this point, PJ Walker‘s starting job for the Panthers seems pretty safe. Baker Mayfield is healthy, and is the backup. The Panthers might have a tough decision to make for that backup spot when Sam Darnold returns, but I would be surprised if Walker’s job was in jeopardy as long as he’s healthy.
- Broncos QB Russel Wilson returned to action last week after missing just one game with a partially torn hamstring, and they actually managed to win against the Jags in London, even if doing so didn’t involve that many points.
- Colts QB Sam Ehlinger had his first career start last week after the benching of Matt Ryan. Ryan probably won’t play for the colts again, for contract reasons. Basically, the Colts will owe Ryan more money in 2023 if he suffers an injury this year that prevents him from playing next year. If they aren’t going to start him next year anyway, there’s no reason to risk such an injury. The Colts remain a good target for fantasy defenses, but we’ll need a few more games of Ehlinger before we know exactly how good.
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Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice 
Week 9 D/ST Projections
With six teams on bye, this week is tough for streaming. There are actually quite a few teams in my top tier, but the ranks get gross fast after that. There are only seven teams I feel good about starting, and while a couple of them have low rostership, the chance that you might have to reach into the “Maybe You Can’t Find Something Better” tier is very real. Rosterhsip numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | BUF | @NYJ | 47.5 | -13 | 17.25 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.11 | 7.59 | 99% |
| 2 | PHI | @HOU | 44 | -13 | 15.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 7.55 | 95% |
| 3 | KC | TEN | 46.5 | -12.5 | 17 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 7.24 | 29% |
| 4 | MIA | @CHI | 44 | -5 | 19.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 7.14 | 43% |
| 5 | NE | IND | 39.5 | -5.5 | 17 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.10 | 6.60 | 89% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 6 | CIN | CAR | 43.5 | -7.5 | 18 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 6.53 | 39% |
| 7 | TB | LAR | 42.5 | -3 | 19.75 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 6.37 | 84% |
| The Maybe You Can’t Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 8 | MIN | @WAS | 43.5 | -3.5 | 20 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 6.02 | 20% |
| 9 | LAC | @ATL | 49 | -3 | 23 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.88 | 28% |
| 10 | ARI | SEA | 50 | -1.5 | 24.25 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.88 | 11% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 11 | BAL | @NO | 48 | -2.5 | 22.75 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.61 | 75% |
| 12 | CAR | @CIN | 43.5 | 7.5 | 25.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.58 | 5% |
| 13 | IND | @NE | 39.5 | 5.5 | 22.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.11 | 5.34 | 76% |
| 14 | GB | @DET | 49 | -3 | 23 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.30 | 47% |
| 15 | NO | BAL | 48 | 2.5 | 25.25 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.10 | 5.23 | 31% |
| 16 | LV | @JAC | 47.5 | -1.5 | 23 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.16 | 17% |
| 17 | WAS | MIN | 43.5 | 3.5 | 23.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.14 | 10% |
| 18 | LAR | @TB | 42.5 | 3 | 22.75 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 4.99 | 57% |
| 19 | SEA | @ARI | 50 | 1.5 | 25.75 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 4.84 | 12% |
| 20 | DET | GB | 49 | 3 | 26 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.10 | 4.82 | 1% |
| 21 | JAC | LV | 47.5 | 1.5 | 24.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 4.63 | 45% |
| 22 | ATL | LAC | 49 | 3 | 26 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 4.54 | 22% |
| 23 | NYJ | BUF | 47.5 | 13 | 30.25 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 4.21 | 47% |
| 24 | CHI | MIA | 44 | 5 | 24.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 4.04 | 8% |
| 25 | HOU | PHI | 44 | 13 | 28.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.10 | 3.88 | 1% |
| 26 | TEN | @KC | 46.5 | 12.5 | 29.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 3.70 | 59% |
Matchups
- BUF @ NYJ: This is an easy one. The Bills have one of the best defenses in the league. The Jets offense has been up and down, but the downs are the norm against good defenses. Zach Wilson threw three interceptions against a similarly strong Patriots defense last week.
- PHI @ HOU: This is also an easy one – the Eagles also have one of the best defenses in the league. If you have the Eagles, you can probably start them every week until Week 16, when they play the Cowboys. For Houston, Davis Mills hasn’t been a total disaster from an interceptions and sacks perspective, but he’s only led the team to more than 20 points once.
- KC vs TEN: Ryan Tannehill sat out last week due to an ankle injury and an illness. We probably won’t know if Tannehill’s going to play in Week 9 until Wednesday. Despite the win, backup Mike Willis was not particularly impressive (and barely threw the ball), so I’m expecting Tannehill to play if it’s at all able. Tannehill’s not amazing either, so this is a good matchup for Kanas City either way.
- MIA @ CHI: Justin Fields is the most-sacked quarterback in the NFL, both in terms of the season total and on a per-game basis. Chicago’s point projection of 19.5 isn’t rock-bottom, but it’s in the range where we typically start defenses against teams projected that low. This is a bit of a boom-bust pick, but one where the median outcome is quite good.
- NE vs IND: In his first game as the Colts’ starter, Sam Ehlinger didn’t impress. He had one turnover (which was a fumble), and took two sacks. Against an excellent Patriots defense, I expect the lack of scoring to continue. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see an increase in sacks. Before he was benched, Matt Ryan took sacks at well above his career rate, and now Ehlinger is playing with the same offensive line.
- CIN vs CAR: PJ Walker has played reasonably well in his four weeks as the Panthers’ starter, but this is not a high-powered offense, especially without Christian McCaffrey. I don’t see tons of upside here from turnovers and sacks, but the pretty good Bengals defense is a solid play against a below-average offense.
- TB vs LAR: Matthew Stafford broke pattern last week. Previously he had taken 5+ sacks in every game against a good defense, and 1 sack in all his others. The 49ers managed just two last week, but I still feel good about testing that pattern again against a similarly great Buccaneers defense. The Stafford-led Rams offense also just hasn’t been that impressive from a scoring perspective.
- MIN @ WAS: Taylor Heinicke has been OK in his two games as Washington’s QB, wherein he hasn’t taken many sacks, and had just one turnover in each game. That said, he doesn’t lead a particularly scary offense, and the Vikings defense has been good enough against some pretty strong teams.
- LAC @ ATL: Generally speaking, teams that run the ball a lot take fewer sacks, because you can’t sack a running back. The Falcons are the second-most run-heavy team in the league (behind Chicago), but Marcus Mariota has still managed to post an above-average rate for sacks taken. That means there’s potential for a lot if they fall behind a strong Chargers offense and are forced to throw more, like they were in Week 5 against Tampa Bay, when Mariota was sacked five times.
- ARI vs SEA: Geno Smith is having a breakout season for Seattle, but he’s posted an above-average sack rate at the same time. This is basically my last-ditch DST starter in a shallow week – a big sack day is what you’re hoping for if you have to start Arizona.
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