This will be a fun fantasy week, as we get a reprieve from byes in honor of thanksgiving. Every week I like to provide updates on which QB situations are changing, because the QB is the best predictor of fantasy defense scoring. There’s quite a lot going on this week, so let’s get in to it:

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• In something of a surprise move, Jets coach Robert Saleh said they’re “keeping everything on the table over the next couple of days” in regards to who would play quarterback, rather than committing to Zach Wilson. This is one to keep an eye on – Mike White and Joe Flacco are the alternatives. Neither seems like they would be much of an upgrade to the Jets’ ability to score, but Flacco would be a downgrade for fantasy defenses, because he’s not all that prone to turnovers and sacks.
• Bears QB Justin Fields dislocated his (non-throwing) shoulder last week, and he’s considered day-to-day. I think he’s likely to play this week, but the Jets are a good start against Chicago either way. If Fields sits, Trevor Siemian will take his place.
• Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has now missed two games with a hamstring injury. There’s no news on if he will play in Week 12, but with the team at 4-7 and a Week 13 bye on the horizon, I would not be surprised if he doesn’t return until after the bye. If Murray sits and Colt McCoy gets another start, the Chargers become an interesting streaming option.
• Rams QB Matthew Stafford has re-entered concussion protocol, after just exiting it on Friday. With the team and 3-7, the smart move might be just to shut him down for the season. John Wolford is the backup. From a fantasy perspective, KC is my #1 defense this week even if Stafford does play.
• Browns QB Jacoby Brissett will likely make his final start of the season this week, with Deshaun Watson slated to be reinstated from suspension in Week 13.
• Carolina: This is less of an actual update, but the Panthers’ QB situation is a mess. Baker Mayfield was absolutely awful last week, in an admittedly tough matchup against Baltimore. I would not be surprised to see the Panthers switch to Sam Darnold, who will not be an upgrade, soon. Though with a Week 13 bye, maybe they’ll just throw Baker to the wolves again this week (the wolves being the Broncos defense), and turn the ball over to Darnold after the bye.

Week 12 D/ST Projections

There are no byes this week! We aren’t done with them for the season yet (we have two more weeks of byes still), but I guess the NFL wanted all hands on deck for Thanksgiving. Combine that with a league that seems to have a lot of good defenses and bad offenses, and we get a pretty good week for streaming. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.

Matchups

1. KC vs LAR: The line for this game surprised me, but it’s legit. The Bettingpros Consensus Lines show an over/under of 44 for this game, with a massive 14.5-point spread. That works out to an implied point total of just 14.75 points, which is the lowest in the league this week (and it would be most weeks too: sub-16 is rare). We know the Matthew Stafford-led rams are bad, but are they that bad? They’ve actually fallen short of that line in 6 of the 9 games Stafford has started. Stafford has also taken 4 or more sacks in 4/9 of those games. A complicating factor is the fact that Stafford has re-entered the concussion protocol, so he might not even play. John Wolford, who has been dealing with a neck injury, is the backup.
2. DAL vs NYG: The Cowboys defense made an absolute mockery of the most powerful QB-WR connection in the league last week when they held the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson – the best wide receiver in football – to just 33 yards on 3 catches. Dallas is the real deal: a defense you can use against almost anyone. For the rest of the season, the only week where you might want to sit them is Week 16 against the Eagles, who are 4th in offensive scoring so far this year.
3. IND vs PIT: It turns out that the Steelers’ rookie QB Kenny Picket is someone we should be targeting every week with fantasy defenses. This is especially true for above-average defenses like the Colts, who are rated 10th overall and 6th against the run by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Their strength against the run is relevant here – when the Steelers finally broke the 20 point barrier for the first time last week, they did it mostly on the ground. Picket has yet to have a game with more than one passing touchdown.
4. NYJ vs CHI: The Jets’ defense have really found their stride this season – they haven’t allowed a team to exceed 20 points since Week 3, and they’ve faced some good offenses (like the Dolphins and Bills) in that time. The Justin Fields-led Bears aren’t the worst offense in football, but they’re below average, and Fields has taken sacks at a pretty high rate through 11 weeks (about 3.6 per game). There’s a chance that Fields, who dislocated his non-throwing shoulder last week, sits in favor of Trevor Siemian, though I think it’s likely Fields plays.
5. DEN @ CAR: This is going to be fun to watch. If the Broncos and Panthers joined forces, you still wouldn’t have a functional football team. The only good unit in this game is the Broncos defense, and they’re going to shut down the Panther’s offense almost as decisively as Nathaniel Hackett will shut down the Broncos offense. Baker Mayfield was named the panthers starter last week and was absolutely awful, taking four sacks and throwing two interceptions en route to a score of just 3 points for the team. If the Panthers decide they want to start Sam Darnold, my expectations stay the same.
6. SF vs NO: This is another example of a great defense you want to start most weeks, at home, against a below-average (but not bottom-tier) offense. The sub-17 point projection seems a little low – the Saints have only been short of that in 2 out of 8 games with Andy Dalton in charge. But this is an upside play anyway – Dalton has taken 9 sacks in his last three games, and it’s not unreasonable to think a defense like SF can exceed that rate.
7. MIA vs HOU: In five games since their bye, the Davis Mills-led Texans are 0-5, with an average of under 15 points per game. In that time, Mills has taken over 3 sacks per game, and had at least 1 interception in every game. This is a top-tier matchup for a serviceable, if un-special, Dolphins defense.
8. WAS vs ATL: There isn’t a whole lot to say about this game, just good fundamentals. A good but not great defense, at home, against a below-average but not terrible offense led by a Marcus Mariota who takes a decent number of sacks. As an added bonus, the Commanders get an even better matchup against the Steelers the following week, so if you get them now you have two weeks of coverage.
9. PHI vs GB: The emergence of Christian Watson as someone who will occasionally actually catch Aaron Rodgers‘s touchdown passes is exciting, but it doesn’t make this a good offense. Especially not on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. If you have the Eagles defense, you can play them the rest of the way, with a possible exception in Week 16 against the Cowboys.
10. CAR vs DEN: Are you surprised I have both defenses in this game as starters? You shouldn’t be, because the Broncos have a truly awful offense to accompany their very good defense. The Panthers are nothing special on the defensive side of the ball, but you don’t need to be special to hold the broncos to 16 or 17 points and sack Russel Wilson four times.

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